Germany’s political establishment is still absorbing the shock of Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 43.8 percent and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz crashed to 17.2 percent. Merz called the result the CDU’s “heaviest defeat” in decades and said it could not simply be treated as business as usual.
“And I have to admit, this is the heaviest electoral defeat that the CDU has suffered in years, in decades,” Merz told reporters in Berlin after CDU leadership meetings. “We are all deeply shocked…We did not expect it to be like this.”
“That does something to us. Including me personally… All of this will, of course, have to have consequences,” he continued.
BREAKING: Merz just said he is "deeply shocked" by the AfD's landslide victory.
"And I have to admit, this is the heaviest electoral defeat that the CDU has suffered in years, in decades."
"That does something to us. Including me personally… All of this will, of course,… pic.twitter.com/L4cycKdH6h
It remains unclear what those “consequences” will be exactly, as Merz did not clarify. However, he did point to two upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which will be held in the next two weeks. If the CDU faces further routs, there may be pressure for Merz to step down.
He accepted the democratic verdict but insisted the outcome had changed the political landscape “not only in Saxony-Anhalt, but throughout Germany.” When nearly 60 percent of voters backed parties that question the country’s democratic institutions, he said, “that is an election result with which we can not just treat as business as usual.”
Merz said he was searching for explanations, including in his own record: “What fear is there in the population that we may have underestimated?”
Merz has plans to hold talks in the coming days with SPD leaders on how the coalition could continue on its present course.
“Giving up is not an option,” he added.
Meanwhile, the AfD federal co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla pledged support for an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt. Weidel called it a “dream result” and argued Merz had become “a great burden.” She predicted the CDU/CSU would never again win a federal election and said the AfD’s goal was to widen the gap to at least 40 percent by the next national vote. Chrupalla called the outcome “absolutely historic.”
Merz’s coalition partner, Bärbel Bas of the far-left Social Democrats (SPD), used her own press conference to argue that the government’s language on work and welfare had itself fueled public anxiety.
Outgoing Minister-President Sven Schulze was blunt: the CDU no longer held a government mandate and would sit in opposition. He ruled out CDU defectors joining any AfD-led arrangement and predicted the BSW would help put an AfD in power.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund described the result as “a very clear government mandate” and said he could be “perhaps the next minister-president.”
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a resounding and historic win in Saxony-Anhalt, but when specific data points are examined, the victory is even more remarkable.
Perhaps the most positive aspect of the election for the AfD is that the tremendous victory was achieved with a record high level of voter participation of 77.8 percent. In essence, more democracy equaled more votes for the AfD, according to calculations from the Infratest dimap. The firm pointed out that the AfD won 170,000 voters who stayed home during the last election in 2021, which is 10 percent of Saxony-Anhalt’s roughly 1.7 million eligible voters.
This means that the AfD’s total voting pool was made up of approximately 30 to 35 percent non-voters.
For those disillusioned by politics, the AfD’s program is drawing them back into participating in democracy. The country’s media should be celebrating this result in theory, but in reality, they would perhaps prefer that these voters simply stayed home, disillusioned and downtrodden.
Workers and those with financial problems backed the AfD
The AfD’s results show there might be futrher room for improvement. Approximately 65 percent of the AfD’s voters reported facing financial issues. As the German economy continues to falter, the pool of potential voters the AfD can tap into is likely to expand in other states.
It is important to note that just because many of these voters are facing financial difficulties does not necessarily mean they are unemployed. In fact, AfD won 61 percent of all blue-collar voters who actually voted. However, many of these often lower-income workers may also be struggling financially in a system that often rewards not working at all.
Some see the AfD’s results as a template.
“65% of AfD voters in Saxony-Anhalt reported facing financial struggles. Turns out that when you correctly link mass immigration to the decline in job security, homeownership, accessible healthcare, quality education, decent wages, and almost every other quality of life indicator for existing residents, they respond accordingly at the ballot box,” wrote Gabe Guidarini, the chief of staff for the Ohio Young Republicans wrote. Although an American, his post underlines that the AfD election results are being watched by the right-wing across the world, especially when they offer a clear blueprint for victory.
65% of AfD voters in Saxony-Anhalt reported facing financial struggles.
Turns out that when you correctly link mass immigration to the decline in job security, homeownership, accessible healthcare, quality education, decent wages, and almost every other quality of life indicator… pic.twitter.com/g0HJLtTs79
The tired narrative of the left, which depicts right-wing parties only garnering support from “old White males,” was once again smashed by the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD won the youth by overwhelming numbers, reaching 42 percent of voters aged 18–24 vote and 44 percent of voters aged 25–40.
Martin Sellner, CEO of the Remigration Institute, celebrated the results, writing: “The kids are all right. The German youth are increasingly patriotic and reject ‘German guilt,’ replacement migration, trans ideology, and cultural Marxism.”
The kids are all right.
The German youth are increasingly patriotic and reject "German guilt", replacement migration, trans ideology, and cultural Marxism altogether. pic.twitter.com/LhcM3le7QX
In fact, it was the oldest voters that actually cost the AfD an absolute majority, with only 31 percent of voters 70 and older backing the party. Similar figures have been consistently found across Germany, with older voters turning to the establishment parties while young and middle-aged voters turning to the AfD.
While the AfD can celebrate its support among younger voters, the combined weight of the older voting population means the AfD will have to make inroads with these voters or continue to fail to reach a position of power at the state and federal level.
The CDU’s results are just as dramatic as the AfD’s results
The story of Saxony-Anhalt cannot be told without the collapse of the Christian Democrats (CDU). The party halved its support since the last election, dropping to 17.2 percent.
Political scientist Petra Dobner was asked if Chancellor Friedrich Merz will now resign. She responded: “That may also depend on how the next elections turn out. So maybe he can survive Saxony-Anhalt, but if Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin show similar results, then I really don’t see a future for Merz.”
Notably, Merz famously said in 2018 that the CDU can cut the AfD’s support in half.
“We can achieve up to 40% again and halve the AfD. That’s possible! But we ourselves must create the conditions for it. That’s our task,” he said.
Since then, Merz has managed to cut the CDU’s support in half in Saxony-Anhalt and double the AfD’s support.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) just won the largest share of any party in a German state election in the party’s history. Despite the historic result, which has sent shockwaves through the German political establishment, lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt still fell short of an absolute majority needed to govern.
That gap, three seats in an 83-member Saxony-Anhalt Landtag, is now the focal point of unfolding drama in the capital city of Magdeburg, where the future direction of the state, and perhaps even of the country, will be decided. AfD has a political mandate and a number of options that could produce dramatic results. Here are three possible scenarios.
An AfD and BSW coalition?
On the preliminary official count, the AfD took 43.8 percent and 39 seats. The threshold for an absolute majority is 42. The BSW scraped in with 5.3 percent and five seats. Together they would have 44. Everyone else together also has 44. Without the BSW, the chamber splits 39–39.
The BSW has already been open that it is willing to pursue a coalition with the AfD, but this is not a comfortable coalition for the AfD.
Siegmund spent the campaign insisting he would not take office without a stable majority of his own. After election night he kept the hard line in one respect and loosened it in another. He still rejected the BSW’s preferred model, a non-partisan minister-president governing with shifting majorities, as messy power politics.
Siegmund called the offer “nonsense” and said he did not want to give up the AfD’s goals and values in the face of “power games.”
He still said the AfD would not trade away its program for power, but he also said he would extend a hand to anyone prepared to deliver a “fundamental political change,” including, if necessary, individual deputies rather than whole parties.
If that fails?
“In an emergency, there will simply be new elections.,” he said. In such a scenario, he predicts the AfD would score “50 to 55%.”
The question is whether cooperation with the BSW on some level is possible. Sahra Wagenknecht framed the result as a chance for a change of course on energy, Russia sanctions, education, and public broadcasting. State-level BSW figures say they will not join a “firewall” coalition against the AfD. They also say they will not elect Siegmund. Their offer is a third way, involving a new leader both parties can agree on, plus issue-by-issue majorities that could include the AfD.
However, the BSW is already hinting they may be willing to give up even more for an AfD government.
BSW’s lead candidate, Thomas Schulze, suggested that in the third ballot for minister-president, the BSW may abstain from the vote, which in theory, could let Siegmund through to become the state leader.
What the BSW would obtain in return remains to be seen.
However, despite the differences between the AfD and BSW, the two parties have much in common. The overlap involves a strict crackdown on migration, tackling energy costs, shifting policy on Ukraine, and hostility to the public broadcasters.
At the same time, BSW politicians have already flagged education policy and parts of the AfD’s economic and social agenda as unacceptable. A formal coalition was ruled out by Wagenknecht before the vote. What remains is only a quasi gray zone where both parties can exist together a vote a time.
For Siegmund, the political costs of that gray zone are obvious. He ran as the man who would reshape the state standing alone. Accepting a non-AfD premier, or even a minority premiership propped up only with the support of Wagenknecht’s left-wing party, would look like the opposite. However, stepping back from the deal would leave his party out of the halls of power once again.
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel both appear eager for Siegmund to take the deal. Chrupalla has already talked up the possibility of a minority government that would seek majorities case by case.
Peel off CDU MPs?
Siegmund’s second option may prove even more explosive for German politics. He spoke of not working with parties, but with individuals from the parties. He suggested individual deputies could “support an AfD government.” Some in the AfD’s federal circle even talk about CDU members crossing the floor to the AfD camp, and there are even suggestions that some MPs may defect.
If any CDU politician defected to the AfD, there would be a national firestorm. While if only one vote was needed, this might be in the realm of possibility, but finding three such MPs may prove a very tall order. The CDU has tried to build the firewall into its DNA, and if three CDU members helped bring the AfD to power in a state, it may be enough to collapse the federal government and end the chancellorship of Friedrich Merz.
Regardless of whether the AfD can peel off three CDU votes, the pressure on the party is tremendous after it collapsed to a mere 17.2 percent, effectively halving its support. The CDU is almost assured to continue facing a political reckoning in the future, which means the dam may break at some point, and CDU politicians may be more and more willing to jump ship to the AfD.
A repeat election possible?
An anti-AfD government is mathematically possible but politically? It would be a total mess.
It would need the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW — five parties, two of which spent the campaign treating each other as the problem. The CDU already ruled out coalitions with both the AfD and the Left Party. The BSW campaigned to push the CDU out, with Wagenknecht also calling another firewall coalition an affront to voters.
That does not mean it cannot be attempted, and it very well might be, even despite the potential consequences for all the parties involved. If that project forms and then staggers, Siegmund’s threat of new elections stops being a far-fetched scenario. A second vote in such a scenario could indeed catapult the AfD above the 50 percent mark.
Procedurally, the clock is already running, as the new Landtag must convene by Oct. 6. The strongest group proposes the Landtag president in the first round. The minister-president is elected by secret ballot, with no fixed deadline once nominations begin. While the first ballot requires a majority of all votes, in the final round, a simple majority of votes cast can suffice to elect a new minister-president.
As far as the best outcome for the AfD, it is hard to argue against CDU defectors handing the AfD the keys to victory. It would allow the AfD to take control with a like-minded party on paper while sparking a major crisis for the ruling CDU.
However, remaining outside government also comes with plenty of bonuses, and as Remix News previously wrote, avoids serious pitfalls that the federal government and even the EU can put up against an AfD government.
Despite falling short of an absolute majority, the AfD appears to be in the driver’s seat.
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BREAKING: Merz just said he is "deeply shocked" by the AfD's landslide victory.
