The Mexican peso is enduring a “black Monday.” The currency’s losses against the dollar deepened and fell to 18 pesos at the beginning of the week, its weakest level since last March. The strength of the U.S. dollar, uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East and rising global interest rates have hit the currency, which after reaching 18 pesos per dollar closed the session at 17.95 pesos per dollar, according to Bank of Mexico data, representing a 1.8% depreciation from the previous close. The peso’s performance has been undermined by monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Mexico and the U.S. The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by 25 basis points, placing it in a range between 3.75% and 4%, its first increase since July 2023. That decision strengthened the dollar, while the Bank of Mexico kept its rate at 6.5%. The issue matters because a narrower gap between the two rates reduces the appeal of the carry trade, a strategy that involves borrowing in countries with very low interest rates to invest in countries where rates are higher and yields greater.

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Commercial integration between Mexico and the United States, under the protection of the USMCA trade agreement, will first have to navigate a complicated customs issue: China. On the eve of the fourth round of talks, scheduled in theory for October, the economic rules that the Mexican government will impose on Chinese goods, investment and technology are of particular interest to the White House.

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