Toronto’s next municipal election will be a critical test of the city’s political direction. At the centre of the mayoral race isOlivia Chow, who is seeking to remain in office and continue shaping the future of Canada’s largest city.

The election will ask Toronto residents to consider several important questions: Is the city moving in the right direction? Has the mayor delivered on her promises? Can she address Toronto’s affordability crisis, housing shortages, public safety concerns and transportation challenges? And, perhaps most importantly,do voters believe she deserves another term?

With the mayor’s office attracting significant attention, the race could become one of the most closely watchedmunicipal contest I the country.

Is Olivia Chow in the lead?

Yes, based on the latest available polling, Olivia Chow is leading the mayoral race, but the

election is far from decided. Her principal challenger is Councillor Brad Bradford, who has been campaigning on issues such as public safety, congestion, and the cost of living. Former federal cabinet minister ChrisAlexander is also in the race, adding another name to the contest. A Liaison Strategies poll reported in late August placed Chow ahead of Bradford among decided and leaning voters. Another poll by Polaris Polling found Chow leading Bradford 50 per cent to 39 per cent when undecided voters were excluded. However, polling is onlya snapshot of public opinion-not a prediction of the result.

Chow became mayor in 2023 after winning a special election following John Tory’s resignation. She is nowseeking her first full elected term as mayor. Her campaign can point to indicatives involving school meals, TTC fares, housing, transit funding and public services. Her challenge will be convincing voters that theseaccomplishments have made a meaningful difference in their everyday lives.

Bradford, a city councillor representing Beaches-East York, is presenting himself as an alternative to Chow. His campaign has focused on crime, congestion, and affordability. His greatest opportunity is to turn dissatisfaction with the current administration into support for his own leadership. However, he must persuade voters that he offers morethan simply a change at City Hall.

Alexander, a former federal cabinet minister and ambassador, entered the mayoral race later than Chow andBradford. His candidacy could affect the race by attracting voters who are looking for an alternative to both leading candidates. The most important question is whether he can build sufficient recognition and support before electionday.

The 2026 municipal election is scheduled for Monday, October 26, 2026. Toronto voters will elect a mayor, city councillors and school board trustees. The city will also see contests in its 25 council wards. But there is anotherimportant factor to consider that the city of Toronto has a large pool of undecided voters and those will be thedifference makers if the contest gets tighter with the weeks to come.

One important fact to consider is that mid-week Doug Ford came out and basically endorsed Olivia Chow for the mayor’s job and gave her his blessing. During the 2023 mayoral campaign, Ford warned that Chow victory would be an “unmitigated disaster.” Since Chow became mayor, however, the two have developed a workingrelationship despite major disagreements on issues such as bike lanes and provincial intervention in Toronto affairs. Ford is now emphasizing what has happened when the two governments have worked together rather thantheir ideological differences. You may want to ask the question of why are Ford and Chow such good buddieswith political perspectives at the opposite end of the spectrum?

One simple answer… money, money, and money. Ford’s comments come at an interesting

moment. They simply praise Chow; they reinforce the argument that Chow has established a workingrelationship with Queen’s Park. The irony here is that there is a striking political reversal between the mayor and thepremier.

Read between the lines… for a mayoral campaign, that’s about as close to a political endorsement as saying, “Vote for Olivia Chow.”

Vincent Black/MS