The fact that Spain is swimming against the tide on European immigration issues became more evident than ever on Friday, when several EU leaders led by the prime ministers of Denmark and Italy — Mette Frederiksen and Giorgia Meloni — strongly criticized the Spanish government’s decision earlier this year to grant legal status to potentially hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants.

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On the night of March 20, 2024, unusually humid and mild in London, three people in their twenties pulled up at an industrial estate in the east of the city in a cherry-red Kia Picanto. They went inside, set fire to a warehouse, and filmed the blaze on a cellphone. The video of the flames consuming the premises ended up in the hands of another 20-year-old, Dylan Earl, who was reached via the Telegram messaging app by the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner, linked to the Kremlin, which had in turn recruited others to do the dirty work. One of the burned units contained humanitarian aid and Starlink satellite equipment destined for Ukraine. According to the British investigation, the three young men who lit the fuse did not know they were actually working for Russia.

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Kaliningrad, the militarized Russian exclave wedged between NATO and EU members Poland and Lithuania and a constant flashpoint between the Kremlin and the Atlantic Alliance, has become the center of Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threat against Europeans. Last week Moscow accused NATO of seeking to block Kaliningrad and threatened to use nuclear weapons if the military organization moves forward with that alleged plan. For the Kremlin, the exclave, which gives it a strategic outlet to the Baltic Sea (it is the only port it can use year-round) and is a key node in its hybrid war against Europe, is an advanced bastion. For NATO, it is a piece on the board that shapes any crisis in the Baltic because it could hinder allied military movements.

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Russia is stepping up its hybrid war against Europe. From sabotage, drone incursions, and arson to plots (mostly foiled) to assassinate pro‑Ukraine activists and Russian dissidents on European soil, the Kremlin is testing the allied response, and incidents against NATO’s European partners are becoming more serious, such as the explosive‑laden drones found this summer at Leipzig Airport in Germany. That gray line between a hybrid attack and a conventional one is blurring, and several European intelligence sources warn of the risk that one of those incidents could escalate — either by a deliberate Kremlin decision or a miscalculation.

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