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Florida governor’s race may come down to a sliver of undecided Black voters

23 October 2026 at 10:00

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. — In Florida’s race for governor, the Democrat is a former Republican congressman, and the Republican would be the state’s first Black governor. That has left Democrats in an unfamiliar position: fighting to hold on to Black voters, one of their most reliable constituencies.

The Democrat, David Jolly, made that fight the clear focus of an interfaith event this week at the Koinonia Worship Center in Pembroke Park. Former President Bill Clinton and a lineup of Florida Democratic leaders joined him.

Speaking to a mostly Black crowd, Jolly invoked the state’s 2023 African American history standards, which said some enslaved people developed skills that benefited them. He also cited remarks his opponent, Rep. Byron Donalds, made in 2024 suggesting Black families were more intact during the Jim Crow era.

“When we are a state that actually suggested years ago that we might want to teach our kids the ‘good parts’ of slavery, or when my opponent suggests there were ‘good parts’ of Jim Crow — Folks, if the test at this moment is about our goodness, we are failing,” Jolly said with a tone that prompted Clinton to later refer to him as the “Reverend Jolly.”

During his own remarks, Clinton said, “The real story is who is unemployed and who is underemployed, and who can’t pay their bills. The black unemployment rate in the state is 8.6 percent.”

Fedrick Ingram, secretary-treasurer of the American Federation of Teachers, was blunter. He said his remarks were aimed at Florida’s “African diaspora.”

“All your skin folk ain’t your kin folk,” he said.

Black Floridians make up only about 13% of the state’s active voters. But while Republicans have dominated Florida in recent cycles, recent polls show this race closer than many expected, likely to be decided on the margins. That gives Black voters an outsize role.

For Donalds, gains among Black voters could offset Republican slippage elsewhere. Some Latino voters have been alienated by President Donald Trump’s deportation push. Donalds has also shown weakness with rural voters: Most of the counties he lost in the August primary were in Florida’s largely rural, White panhandle.

For Jolly, the challenge is holding the party’s base. He has pointed to a recent poll showing him with 76% of Black voters, short of what the party’s last two nominees for governor won. In 2018, Andrew Gillum carried 90% of Black voters and came within less than a percentage point of defeating Ron DeSantis.

“There’s about 10% of Black voters who are currently undecided, and they might well decide the next governor of the state of Florida,” Jolly told reporters after the event with Clinton.

Both campaigns are now competing for those voters.

Donalds has long been the face of Republican efforts to bring Black voters into the party. As a Trump surrogate in 2024, he headlined several events aimed at Black men in heavily Democratic cities, including Detroit and Atlanta. His bet was that a message about economic opportunity and lower costs could overcome voters’ skepticism and mistrust of the GOP.

“It’s something I feel that Republicans should have been doing for a long time, because I think Black voters are more conservative than modern Democrats are anyway,” Donalds told MS NOW. “I think it’s important as Republicans to not just say, ‘Well, this group of people typically don’t vote our way. Let’s just focus on the votes we can get.’ I think you always have to find ways to expand your tent, expand the electorate.”

Four men sit in barber's chairs at a barber shop. The man on the far left and the man on the far right shake hands.
Rep. Byron Donalds, far right, shakes hands with radio host Shelley Wynter, far left, at an event entitled “Black American Business Leaders Round Table,” at Rocky’s Barber Shop on June 26, 2024, in Atlanta.Gerald Herbert / AP Photo

As a candidate for governor, Donalds has appeared alongside Black business and faith leaders and held town halls before largely Black audiences. Last month, at a town hall at Florida A&M University, a historically Black university, he was hammered over his support for changes to how race is taught in Florida’s public schools; the dismantling of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives; and Trump’s immigration crackdown.

He has also been buoyed by endorsements from several Black Democratic officials. Among them was a surprise endorsement from Gainesville City Commissioner Cynthia Chestnut. She faulted Jolly for not choosing a Black or Hispanic running mate and cited Donalds’ chance to make history.

“Representation is not window dressing. It is respect. It is recognition. It is power. And when that power is overlooked, we have every right to call it out,” Chesnut said in a statement on her decision. “I want to see a Black governor of Florida in my lifetime, and I will not apologize for saying so.”

Jerome Gayman, 65, of Fort Pierce, voiced a similar sentiment after attending a Donalds campaign event there.

“For a gentleman like me who has a son, who was able to see the rise of Barack Obama to being president, as the first [Black] president, to see Byron coming up as potentially the first black governor of Florida, it’s historic,” he said.

Gayman, who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, said he is not alone.

“You talk about the ‘silent minority,’ that’s who we are,” Gayman said. “There’s a lot of [Black voters] that will vote for Donald without coming public.”

Earlier this week, Jolly campaigned in Eatonville, which bills itself as the state’s first all-Black, self-governing municipality. While he was there, the town’s vice mayor, Angela Thomas, endorsed Donalds. Donalds cast the endorsement as especially meaningful.

“She decided to join a growing list of Democrats in this state who have looked at my campaign, the things that we’re working on, things that we stand for, and they’re deciding to cross party lines and support me,” Donalds said.

Still, winning over a significant share of Florida’s Black voters will be an uphill battle for Donalds. Despite the occasional defection, the turnout for Jolly’s event with Clinton showed how thoroughly Jolly has consolidated support among the state’s Black Democratic establishment. His challenge is making sure rank-and-file voters follow.

Jolly has accused Donalds of pursuing an “anti-Black agenda” and of refusing to confront persistent inequities in the state.

“The difference between Byron and I is I recognize that the economic disparity between Black and White America still exists today,” Jolly said. “The disparity in education outcomes in healthcare access still exists today. The attack on education disparately impacts Black and Brown communities … We’ve tried to build a coalition and a platform to actually address that.”

Democrats’ most potent argument, though, may be a simpler one: tying Donalds to Trump. Data suggest Black Americans have borne a disproportionate share of the economic strain since the president returned to office. Nationally, Black unemployment hit 7% in September, roughly double the rate for White workers, and Black median wealth fell by about a quarter from 2022 to 2025.

Democrats have also accused Donalds of trying to obscure that connection. After his campaign made Trump less visible on its website this month, Jolly said his Republican opponent was distancing himself from the president as part of a wider effort to court Black voters.

“His scrubbing of Donald Trump from his history is singularly about the undecided Black voter,” Jolly said at a Tallahassee campaign event.

Jolly has also said that having Angie Nixon, the Democratic Senate nominee, on the ticket “helps a lot” in turning out Black Floridians. Nixon, he said, is “energizing a base that is excited.”

Donalds is also working against history that suggests Republican voters have been unwilling to elect a Black state executive, as MS NOW political analyst Anthony Coley outlined.

“Ken Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania in 2006; Daniel Cameron in Kentucky in 2023; Mark Robinson in North Carolina in 2024; and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia in 2025. Each of those Black candidates was held up by the GOP as proof that the party is new and more diverse. Each of them lost,” Coley wrote.

But this is Florida, where no Democrat has been elected governor in more than three decades. Republicans outnumber Democrats in voter registration, and more Republicans turned out for the August primary. Donalds faces a steep climb with Black voters, but Jolly faces a steeper one against the state’s Republican tilt.

Both candidates are getting reinforcements as the race enters its final weeks. On Tuesday, Donalds released two ads featuring his mother aimed at Florida’s immigrant communities, and Trump is set to rally voters in the state Friday. Despite suggestions that he has been distancing himself from the president, Donalds told MS NOW he welcomes the visit.

“The president coming in, of course, that’s just going to be a boost of getting people excited about getting to the polls, and we love that,” Donalds said.

Jolly, meanwhile, has campaigned in recent weeks with prominent Black leaders. They include the Rev. Al Sharpton, Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and former Rep. Al Lawson, whose majority-Black district was dismantled in Florida’s 2022 redistricting. On Tuesday, the Democratic Governors Association announced a $1 million investment in Jolly’s campaign. His campaign said Clinton has helped raise more than $3 million for him.

Jolly’s words and Donalds’ campaign stops point to the same bet: The race will be won at the margins.

“What I know we’re seeing in our camp, and I believe Byron’s camp is as well. I think there are two final fronts in this race. The first is the disaffected Republican,” Jolly said at the Tallahassee event. “But I would say the most important front that this entire race could come down to is that 10 percent of undecided black voters in Florida.”

The post Florida governor’s race may come down to a sliver of undecided Black voters appeared first on MS NOW.

Rep. Byron Donalds, far right, shakes hands with radio host Shelley Wynter, far left, at an event entitled "Black American Business Leaders Round Table," at Rocky's Barber Shop on June 26, 2024, in Atlanta.

Warnock says Democrats are doing ‘barely enough’ in the South. He wants more.

20 October 2026 at 17:33

“Anger” isn’t a strong enough term for what Sen. Raphael Warnock said he’s seeing as he campaigns across four states in five days, mostly for Democratic Senate candidates in the South.

On Saturday, the tour brought Warnock to South Carolina to stump for Annie Andrews, the state’s Democratic Senate nominee. Flanked by Andrews and Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., he gave his signature sermon-style remarks to a crowd that included many of the state’s faith and Democratic leaders.

“The nation is just beginning to pay attention and wake up to what is happening in the South,” Warnock said. “In Mississippi … here in South Carolina … in North Carolina, there is a kind of righteous fury on the ground. The people of our country are saying enough is enough.”

With a conviction that reminded listeners that Warnock doubles as the senior pastor of Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, the senator offered a solution.

“It’s time to turn the page. And it’s clear to me that the road to getting that done runs right through the South,” Warnock said. “As goes the South, so goes the nation.”

Warnock’s belief in the South’s untapped political potential comes from his own record. He won five elections in less than three years, repeatedly overcoming doubts that a Bible Belt Senate seat could flip to Democrats and stay that way. With the right political environment and enough investment, he argued, Southern Democrats can win races that look like long shots. He is pressing his party, including its Senate leadership, to act on that.

Over the past week, Warnock voted early in Georgia and joined Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor and Democratic nominee for governor, on the trail in Atlanta. He rallied Black men in Columbia and Charleston for Andrews, and he attended canvass launches in North Carolina for former Gov. Roy Cooper, the state’s Democratic Senate nominee.

But Mississippi’s Senate race seems to be most on Warnock’s mind. Without being asked, he brought up his support for Scott Colom, a district attorney trying to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Mississippi since 1982.

“I think when people hear ‘Mississippi,’ they make certain assumptions about what’s possible, but they made those assumptions about Georgia,” Warnock said. “I think very often we lose by the margin of our disengagement.”

Warnock has hosted four fundraisers for Colom and helped raise more than $500,000 for him, his campaign told MS NOW. The campaign said that is more than any other senator has raised for a candidate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., attended at least one of the fundraisers.

That hasn’t spared Schumer from Warnock’s prodding. Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Schumer, has praised Colom but has yet to make a significant investment in the race.

“We could do a lot better,” Warnock said. “I’m glad that the nation is finally waking up a little bit, paying attention to what’s happening in the South. But I think that, to the degree that Democrats do just enough in the South, or barely enough, that we miss a real opportunity to do something transformational for the whole country.”

“I’m having that conversation with my colleagues all the time,” he added.

Warnock’s ambitions run up against political reality, though. Democrats are still weighed down by an unpopular national brand, and they raise significantly less money than Republicans. Asked whether it’s fair to expect the party to spend on races a Democrat hasn’t won in decades, Warnock began with a concession.

“There’s no question that they have more money than we do. They always do. And if these policies persist, they always will,” he began. “Democrats’ ceiling in the Senate is 52 seats. That’s unsustainable. Over time, we have to expand the map. We can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can strengthen and shore up our candidates in places where people feel like we’re more likely to win, and at the same time provide the kinds of resources that are needed to expand the map.”

Warnock argued that the “righteous fury” he keeps encountering can power those wins. He explained what he means by the phrase before heading from a Charleston fundraiser to Mother Emanuel AME Church, where a white supremacist killed nine Black worshipers in 2015.

“I think that this election is so much bigger than your typical election season, and the issues that confront our country are so much bigger than the puny language of partisan politics. That’s a kind of vocabulary that does not capture the moral moment,” Warnock said.

He pointed to outrage over a range of issues, from declining healthcare coverage rates to rising grocery costs to corruption “at the highest levels of government.”

“It’s the difference between right and wrong,” he said, “and I think people feel it on both sides of the aisle, which is why a state like South Carolina is at the center of this debate, and we can do something that seemed unimaginable not long ago in the Senate.”

Fifty-seven percent of eligible Black voters live in the South. The states where Warnock has spent the most time this week have among the highest shares of Black voters in the country. Warnock is also the senior pastor of Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. preached, and he is seen as uniquely equipped to turn those voters out. That effort was on display Saturday, when he rallied supporters in predominantly Black North Charleston and Florence, South Carolina.

But Warnock said Democrats can’t rely only on turning out more of their most loyal voters. The party, he argued, must build a “multi-racial coalition” that crosses party lines. He said it should draw on outrage over what he called “cruel” Trump administration policies that target the most vulnerable.

That includes voters like Barbara Bates, 80, a lifelong Republican until recently, who came to hear Warnock and Andrews on Saturday. Bates voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but was turned off by “the way he’s so nasty to people.” She left the presidential line blank in 2020 and voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Soon after, she was formally expelled from her local Republican party.

Bates isn’t ready to call herself a Democrat, but she shares Warnock’s diagnosis.

“Like he said, Washington’s sick, and we need somebody to help fix it, and we just need more people that are willing to stand up to Trump,” Bates said.

Bates said Warnock’s faith could make him an especially valuable messenger in Bible Belt states like South Carolina, where nearly 80% of residents identify as Christian.

“The Republicans — to a certain extent the Christian nationalists have taken over,” she said. “They’re running people away from the church, not to the church. People like Senator Warnock will be able to maybe let them think about where they really want to be and what Christianity really is.”

Warnock is betting that more voters like Bates can be persuaded to back Southern Democrats like Andrews. He’s also counting on polls showing public disapproval of the administration’s handling of issues including the war with Iran and immigration enforcement.

“What is different about this moment is that we have an administration that is wearing their bigotry on their sleeve,” Warnock said. “The cruelty that we’re seeing unleashed, not only against Black people, but against people of color, against people who are perceived to be other — the cruelty is baked into the cake. It’s their electoral strategy.”

Warnock’s midterm travel this month has also taken him to New Hampshire and Nevada. Those two states and South Carolina have traditionally held some of the earliest contests on the Democratic presidential primary calendar. Asked about that, Warnock demurred.

“If you look at New Hampshire, South Carolina; those are places where we also have Senate candidates, or we need to win,” he said.

Pressed on whether he is at least considering a presidential run, Warnock wouldn’t do what his fellow Georgia Democrat, Sen. Jon Ossoff, has done: throw cold water on the idea.

“I am someone who’s always had a deep sense of calling. I’m a pastor who didn’t imagine that I’d be in the Senate, and my prayer has remained the same,” Warnock said. “How can I offer my resources, gifts, opportunities to serve in the best way at each moment?”

Whatever Warnock decides, he is up for re-election in 2028, and his next move will likely involve harnessing that “righteous fury.”

“I would like to see us channel that righteous fury, that sense of we’re better than this into a larger and nobler conversation,” he said. “We really are better than this, and I think we need leaders who can remind us of that.”

The post Warnock says Democrats are doing ‘barely enough’ in the South. He wants more. appeared first on MS NOW.

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