Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi‘s Substack:  On March 9 of this year, roughly ten days into the Iran war, I made the following points on Twitter: Trump is desperately seeking to end the war, but Iran has a vote to, and it won’t allow the war to end quite yet for a few reasons: […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi‘s Substack:  Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, speculated in a recent interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston (@commoditycontext) that the reason why more crude is getting through the Strait of Hormuz may be because some countries are paying Iran a toll, possibly up to 20% […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. If you’ve followed my interviews, you know I’ve been warning about the high likelihood of a third round of the war – one that would almost certainly be far more intense than the previous two. I’ve also argued that, given Trump’s erroneous reading of the current balance, perhaps […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. A final deal between the United States and Iran is slipping further out of reach. Since the Memorandum of Understanding collapsed in July, the prospects for reviving it have deteriorated by the day. While Tehran publicly demands a return to the MOU, Trump’s current position is that even […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. One of the important characteristics of Israel and Donald Trump’s war on Iran was that it never had the support of the American people. When George Bush launched his illegal invasion of Iraq, support stood strong at 72%. As the war turned into a debacle, that support waned. […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. I have been stunned by the number of officials from a wide variety of countries who, while hardly favoring Iran or feeling much empathy for the Islamic Republic, have privately expressed to me a huge sigh of relief over Tehran’s success in thwarting US-Israeli aggression. Given that many […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. The Trump administration believes it has turned the tables on Iran. Washington assesses that the rerouting of maritime traffic through the Omani corridor, combined with a global shift away from Persian Gulf oil, has reduced the effectiveness of Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. Oman and Iran appear close to a temporary arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially providing both an exit from the current round of fighting and the foundation for a more durable maritime order. Washington should welcome such an agreement – even if it acknowledges a degree […]

Reprinted with permission from Trita Parsi’s Substack. A few points on the shocking U.S.–Saudi nuclear deal announced. 1. This reflects a weaker American bargaining position, not a stronger one. The broader context is China. The Biden administration pursued a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, as part of a broader expansion of Trump’s Abraham Accords, in […]