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Netanyahu’s Arithmetic: Sixteen 9/11s and the Ayalon Highway, by Larry C. Johnson

4 October 2026 at 05:00
Benjamin Netanyahu has a talent for round numbers, and for knowing which audience gets which one. On the night of October 17, 2024, after Israeli soldiers stumbled on Yahya Sinwar in Rafah and killed him, the prime minister recorded two statements. In Hebrew, he called Sinwar the mass murderer “who murdered thousands of Israelis.” In...

Russia Is Not Collapsing: A Reply to Con Coughlin, by Larry C. Johnson

1 October 2026 at 05:10
Con Coughlin’s September 30 column in the Telegraph tells readers that Vladimir Putin’s decision to raise defense spending is a “desperate gamble” that could end with Russia following the Soviet Union into economic collapse. It is a familiar story. Western commentators have been predicting Russia’s economic implosion since the first sanctions packages in 2022. What...

The Gulf Restart Trap: Why Reopening Hormuz Won’t End the Energy Crisis, by Larry C. Johnson

30 September 2026 at 05:10
Once again I am indebted to Karl W. Miller, whose analysis of the energy crisis unleashed by the war with Iran has become essential reading for me. Karl has a habit of seeing around corners. He anticipated the Houthi push in southern Yemen back in July, well before it made headlines, and his recent work...

America’s Diesel Surplus Is an Illusion (An Update from Karl Miller), by Larry C. Johnson

29 September 2026 at 05:00
On paper, the United States should be the world’s safety valve in this fuel crisis. American refineries make far more diesel than Americans burn. But every one of those barrels is already spoken for. Between rising domestic demand, heavy export commitments and refineries running near their limit, the U.S. is drawing down its own stocks,...

Fires on the Home Front: What Europe’s Defense-Plant Incidents Could Mean for the War in Ukraine, by Larry C. Johnson

29 September 2026 at 05:00
Since March 2026, a string of fires and explosions has hit European companies that supply Ukraine’s war effort. Some circulating accounts, including a widely shared video (Borzzikman), have inflated this into a campaign of bombings leveling munitions plants across the continent, including in Romania, France and Britain. The documented record is narrower, but still significant:...
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