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‘No risk for Canada’ as Russian lab worker dies of ‘unknown’ illness: minister

5 October 2026 at 13:54
Russian authorities said the situation was under control and that all known contacts of the dead woman had been identified, examined and placed under medical supervision.

Trump cheers Bolsonaro Jr’s advance on Lula in Brazil, but EU fears for Mercosur alliance

5 October 2026 at 11:41

Flávio Bolsonaro surprisingly topped the polls in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday (4 October), making him the favourite to topple President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the run-off in three weeks.

The result is the latest in a series of strong performances by far-right candidates in Latin America. US president Donald Trump has been particularly invested in Brazil.

Despite lagging behind in most pre-election polls, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (45), the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won around 47 percent of the vote, with votes from more than 99.9 percent of districts counted. Bolsonaro was strongest in the country’s southern states.

President Lula took 45 percent, after performing strongest in Brazil’s north-east, and advanced to the second round, to be held on 25 October.

Latin American experts believe that Bolsonaro will likely win the second round as most of the candidates who failed to reach the runoff are ideologically closer to him than Lula.

Although voting is compulsory in Brazil, one in five of eligible voters did not take part in the first round.

This year’s election has been widely described as one of the most significant in modern Brazilian history, its outcome exceptionally important for the United States and Europe. It is also key for the rest of the planet, given the global impact of deforestation in the Amazon rainforest.

Conservative forces aligned with Bolsonaro also made gains in the elections to Congress. Jair Bolsonaro’s wife Michelle won a senate seat. She had previously fallen out with Flávio but the two have since publicly reconciled. And the former president’s son Carlos Bolsonaro also won a seat, while another son, Jair Renan, was elected to the lower house of congress.

Trump’s stake in Brazil

Though the campaign focused primarily on domestic issues, particularly the economy, security and corruption, Trump’s influence loomed large.

Trump criticised Brazil’s judiciary when Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years following an unsuccessful attempted coup after he narrowly lost the 2022 election to Lula. The former Brazilian president is under house arrest due to health problems, and a court ruled he could not stand.

The US president described the trial of Bolsonaro as a “witch hunt”. Although Trump did not openly endorse Flávio Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro played up his ideological proximity to him.

In contrast, Lula sharply criticised Trump and built a reputation as a leader unafraid to stand up to Trump. Americas Quarterly editor Brian Winter said some in Brazil joke that Lula’s most effective surrogate is Trump.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva delivers a speech after learning the official results election on Sunday (4 October).

Lula is known for his multipolar foreign policy. He seeks “pragmatic relations” with the US, China, Russia and others. Lula maintains friendly relations with Vladimir Putin, although he recently spoke out against the invasion of Ukraine.

If Bolsonaro were to win the second round, Brazil would probably join a coalition of countries conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon. It is a controversial initiative, and like other left leaders in the region, Lula has rejected it.

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Russia is losing its grip on Kaliningrad, despite using the exclave for anti-Nato scare stories

5 October 2026 at 09:08

Russia will use nuclear weapons if Nato tries to blockade Kaliningrad. That was the blunt warning from the Kremlin last week. In truth, this is an empty threat against an invented danger. Russia’s nuclear bluff is worn out from overuse, and Nato has no such intention.

But the outburst does signal something useful: Russia’s sensitivity about Kaliningrad.

The northern half of the former German territory of East Prussia is the Kremlin’s last great trophy from the Soviet victory over Hitler in 1945.  

Like many trophies, it is less impressive on close inspection. Kaliningrad is an artificial creation, from its name (after the war criminal Mikhail Kalinin) to its population (imported after ethnic cleansing) and its southern border (a crude straight line, of the kind European colonists inflicted on African countries). 

Now Moscow’s grip on this exclave — an island of Russian territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania — is increasingly fragile. Not because anyone will sever the precarious air, sea, and land routes that keep it supplied, but because of Russia’s all-too-real, corrupt, authoritarian, and incompetent system of government.

The weakness of the Russian system, aggravated by the cost of the disastrous war in Ukraine, makes holding on to Kaliningrad unsustainable: economically, socially, demographically, and politically.

Outside commentary mostly misses this, depicting Kaliningrad as a fortress from which Russia can menace its neighbours.

It is more realistic to see it the other way round, as Russia’s greatest strategic vulnerability: an Achilles’ heel. 

The think-tank the Baltic International Security Centre (BISC) is conducting a big research project called Kaliningrad 2050.

The name poses an implicit question: do you really believe that Kaliningrad will still be under Moscow’s rule by the middle of the century? It looks increasingly unlikely.

BISC will this week convene 20 experts for crisis simulations examining how Kremlin rule might unravel, and how neighbouring countries could, would, and should react.

The causes are imaginary, for now. But an environmental disaster, a breakdown in fuel supplies, or a public-health emergency, such as the one now unfolding in Siberia, are all entirely possible in Russia’s current ramshackle state. Decision-makers will have to react to the resulting refugee flows, pollution, and humanitarian needs. 

We do not yet know the BISC study’s outcome: as with military ‘war games’, the aim of these exercises is to test how different scenarios play out. We hope the conclusions will be useful for those who deal with these dilemmas in real life.

Next up will be a book, Fragile Fortress, to be published later this year. Edited by the British Russia-watcher Christopher Peters, and written by local and foreign experts, it explores topics including memory politics, economic weaknesses, internal repression, and the state of public opinion. The main message: Kaliningrad survives only thanks to economic subsidy and political support from Moscow.

These efforts could hardly be more topical.

While the Kremlin blusters about a threat from Nato, social media scare stories depict supposed Russian invasion plans to be launched from Kaliningrad, with maps showing thick red arrows piercing the Suwałki Gap, a strategic stretch of land which links Poland and Lithuania.

But as the book’s military chapter shows, such an attack is impossible in current (or likely) conditions. Russia has almost no ground forces left in Kaliningrad: they have all gone to Ukraine. Nor does the Russian air force there have the kind of airfields and hangars needed for a real war.

Nato, especially since Sweden and Finland joined the alliance, is overwhelmingly dominant in land, sea, and air in the region: a point underlined by its recent surveillance exercises in the region. 

In short, the nuclear bluster is irrelevant. Nobody is menacing Kaliningrad from the outside. And the real question is when and how, but not if, the Kremlin will lose it in the end. 

The Church in the Age of Therapy

5 October 2026 at 05:04
 The insights of Freud (and many others) revealed truths about our inner lives that, while not as ironclad as thermodynamics or as practically useful as germ theory, were arrived at with enough rigor for psychology to consider itself a science alongside others. Psychology told compelling stories, such as the idea that moral obligations are at... Continue Reading

Killing Grandma

5 October 2026 at 05:01
“The liberalization of euthanasia laws not only offends the West’s pre-modern moral and religious traditions but also cannot be justified on the uniquely modern idea that euthanasia is a rational means of enhancing the individual’s willful control over his body and life. The deeper problem, however, is that this development is best understood as an... Continue Reading

The Rise of the Jim Crow Theobros

5 October 2026 at 05:01
A decade ago, Partridge was a lifestyle blogger and social justice evangelical entrepreneur who had been “saved from success.” In 2015, he gave a TEDx talk called “How to Value People over Profits” based on his book of the same title. His most controversial view was that yoga pants are sinful.  In recent years, Partridge, who has more... Continue Reading
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