Worldwide telecom capex surges in first half of 2026
Dell’Oro Group reported worldwide telecom capex rose 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations following several years of declining investments.
Despite the promising start to the year, Dell’Oro’s long-term outlook remained largely unchanged by forecasting telecom capex growth of up to 1% CAGR through 2030.
Telecom equipment performance continued to closely mirror capex trends. Combined vendor revenue from the six telecom equipment segments monitored by Dell’Oro, comprised of Broadband Access, Microwave Transmission, Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and High-End Router & Aggregation, also increased by about 5% over the same timeframe.
Dell’Oro VP Stefan Pongratz explained operators have greater capacity following the 5G and fibre investment cycles and are gradually redirecting spending from coverage to capacity, modernisation, automation and efficiency.
“At the same time, improving operator revenues are helping to reduce capital intensity ratios even as network investments remain flat,” he stated.
Capital intensity, which peaked at 18% in 2022, is forecast to decline to around 14% in 2028, ahead of increasing slightly as early 6G investment starts.
Overall, telecom equipment revenue is projected to grow at a 2% to 3% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, outpacing CSP capex, partly due to incremental demand from cloud providers.
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