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Written by Damir Nazarov

Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, analysts interpreted the move as an attempt by Netanyahu to establish a foothold against Yemen’s Ansar Allah and gain leverage in the Red Sea. However, the recognition of officials from this separatist enclave in the Horn of Africa indicates that Israel’s plans extend beyond countering the Houthis; Turkey also figures among the adversaries of the Israeli state.

About a year ago, Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign policy advisor to the President of Somaliland, stated that they “need air defense systems” to counter Turkish F-16s and drones stationed in Mogadishu. He further noted, “We want Israel to support us in the confrontation with Turkey.” About a year ago, Mohamed Osman Fadal, a senior foreign policy advisor to the President of Somaliland, stated that they “need air defense systems” to counter the Turkish F-16s and drones stationed in Mogadishu. He further noted, “We want Israel to support us in the confrontation with Turkey.”

This stance reflects the sentiments within Somaliland’s self-proclaimed administration and aligns with Netanyahu’s ambitions, as both parties seek to prepare as fully as possible for a clash with the de facto government of Somalia. The official Somali army already possesses special forces and a navy trained by Turkey, as well as T129 ATAK helicopters, the renowned Bayraktar UAV, and even M48 and M60 tanks.

Recently, Somali President Sheikh Hassan Mohamud stated that Israel plans to establish a naval base in the port city of Berbera—located in Somaliland—and utilize its airport. Mohamud made this statement in an interview with Al Jazeera, warning that Mogadishu would oppose any Israeli military presence in territory it considers part of Somalia. “Under no circumstances will we allow an Israeli presence in the country based on the way Israel treats Somaliland.”

Circumstances are compelling the parties to arm themselves, and it is quite likely that the Horn of Africa will become the first theater of open confrontation between Israel and Turkey.

If the battle against separatists in Somalia is supposedly the first frontline, then who is next? The Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean sea, where Greece is gradually being drawn into Israel’s sphere of influence.

According to media reports, in late August, Ankara redeployed the 51st Commando Brigade—comprising approximately 2,000 professional special forces troops—from Hozat in the country’s east to the Söke district in Aydın province, directly opposite the Greek island of Samos.

Earlier in the spring, Greece purchased weapons from Israel worth approximately 2.3 billion shekels. The arsenal includes the Elbit-developed PULS system, training missiles, precision-guided munitions, loitering munitions, and ten years of logistical support. This new acquisition is part of Greece’s plan to modernize its armed forces by 2030. Athens intends to spend around 28 billion euros by 2036 to establish an Israeli-style defense system—known in Greece as the “Achilles Shield”—and to purchase up to 40 F-35 fighter jets from the US, as well as frigates from France and Italy.

While many experts believe Greece took this step in response to threats arising from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran—particularly given Tehran’s strikes on US allies in the Persian Gulf—it is also clear that Greece is concerned about Turkey’s growing capabilities in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). On top of all this, let us not forget that Greece is preparing to establish a “Mediterranean Quadrilateral Dialogue” with India, Israel, and Cyprus, serving as a counterweight to the “Mecca Pact” involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

The region is gradually entering a new level of conflict, with blocs now forming in anticipation of a future redistribution of spheres of influence. Israel, the primary proponent of the IMEC project, views Turkey as an adversary due to its strategically important position along the Silk Road. Consequently, Somaliland and Greece are poised to become key players in Israel’s strategy to curtail the influence of Turkey and its allies.

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• Trump Blames Iran for Flydubai Incident, Israel Gears Up for Another War
• Who Put Hamam al-Hammami in the Cockpit of a Flight to Israel?
• Heroism or Staged Spectacle: What Really Happened in the Cockpit of Flydubai Flight FZ1073

The post Preparations For A War Between Israel And The Turks Are In Full Swing appeared first on South Front.

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Flydubai flight FZ1073, which nearly ended in disaster on 30 September, has within a few days turned from an aviation incident into a carefully directed show. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posed with a passenger who had been designated the saviour and drew parallels with 11 September. Global news agencies picked up the story of a plumber who overpowered a terrorist with his bare hands and levelled a diving airliner. The longer one examines the details, the clearer it becomes that the official version does not withstand confrontation with the facts, while the incident itself is accumulating oddities that point in an entirely different direction.

Most revealing is the way the information was presented. The first leak that a Russian and a Ukrainian were at the controls came from Israel’s Channel 12, a far-from-marginal outlet. Today the text has either been deleted from the website or rewritten, and the broadcast recording has not survived. Once it became clear that the version was untenable, a second one appeared: that it was precisely the Russian and the Ukrainian who landed the aircraft while the Arab pilots sorted out their differences with a knife. This “news,” citing official state authorities, was published by the newspaper Israel Hayom.

Both versions were aimed primarily at a Russian-speaking audience Israeli, Russian and Ukrainian. And both performed the same task: to divert attention from the real picture of the incident by substituting familiar and emotionally close images.

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What fails to add up in the official version? Let us begin with the passenger composition. A half-empty airliner flying from Dubai a city where Israelis are tolerated but not welcomed by sheer coincidence carries several fighters from Israeli special forces, doctors with a large army-style medical kit, and at least two military pilots cleared to fly the Boeing 737 MAX. Such a coincidence cannot be explained by chance. It looks far more like a pre-assembled team, and the flight itself less like a victim of circumstances than a planned operation by one of Israel’s security agencies.

Iran’s Fars agency, regarded as a mouthpiece of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, did not soften its language. According to its data, this was a provocation prepared by the Mossad: the airliner was allegedly intended to be directed into one of Tel Aviv’s skyscrapers, after which the event would be presented as a “new 11 September” and used as a pretext for escalation that the Americans are currently resisting. Fars also claims that the sharp dive of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and the hostage-taking signal were elements of a secret operation whose ultimate goal was to create an impeccable pretext under international law for war with Iran. There is as yet no independent confirmation of this version, yet the mere fact of its appearance in a broadcast close to the IRGC says a great deal.

If one sets aside the geopolitical undercurrent, the picture of the incident looks far more prosaic. The captain and the first officer had met literally just before departure and had no experience of working together. Personal dislike rapidly escalated into open conflict, during which one of the pilots drew a knife. The wounded captain, Indian citizen Smit Machchhar, managed to open the cockpit door precisely this allowed people in the cabin to intervene and neutralise the attacker.

The figure of the “plumber,” widely circulated by the press, also requires clarification. Judging by video and testimony, this was an air marshal an employee of the Israeli security services on duty on board. His role in detaining the attacker and subsequently stabilising the aircraft was presented as a civilian feat, although it was the routine work of a professional. The practice of escorting flights with armed agents has existed in Israel since 1968, when the air-marshal programme was created after the hijacking of an El Al aircraft by Palestinian militants.

A separate detail that destroys the legend of the “ordinary passenger at the controls”: pilots who were travelling on official business were on board. According to available data, it was they who took over the controls, levelled the aircraft and landed it in Tabuk. All 174 passengers survived; both pilots were hospitalised. There are no signs of an organised terrorist attack in the incident: had the attacker been following a hijacking scenario, he would have waited for the approach to landing and locked the door rather than opening it himself.

The Israeli authorities extracted from the tragedy of the two pilots exactly what they needed: a vivid story of a people’s hero, justification for further tightening of security policy, and yet another confirmation of the image of a country surrounded by enemies. Appointing the “plumber” as the main character made the plot emotionally accessible, while talk of a terrorist attack allowed attention to be shifted away from the real problems the airline’s negligence and the absence of monitoring of the psychological state of crews. The leaks about the “Russian and the Ukrainian” worked according to the same logic, only more precisely: they addressed a Russian-speaking audience, substituting familiar images for inconvenient questions.

Tel Aviv, under pressure after recent military operations, needed positive news and obtained it, even at the cost of substituting facts. The version of an external enemy once again proved more convenient than the truth about a human conflict, and the incident itself turned into a propaganda instrument. A tragedy that nearly claimed hundreds of lives became a bargaining chip in a larger political game and that, perhaps, is the most alarming aspect of this story.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• Contradictory Reports on Flydubai Flight to Israel Leave More Questions Than Answers
• Everything We Know About the Incident Aboard Flydubai Flight FZ1073 to Israel
• Netanyahu Met With Arab Officials, Including Saudis, To Counter The Houthis

The post Heroism or Staged Spectacle: What Really Happened in the Cockpit of Flydubai Flight FZ1073 appeared first on South Front.

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Smoke was reported over Riyadh on October 3 after satellite monitoring detected unusual thermal activity at an Aramco refinery, amid unconfirmed reports that the Houthis had attacked the Saudi capital.

NASA’s FIRMS detected higher-intensity thermal activity at the refinery, while NASA Terra imagery appeared to show a large fire and thick smoke drifting across northern Riyadh. Videos posted to social media also indicate that a massive fire broke out at the facility.

Click to see full-size image. (Photo via firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov)

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Saudi authorities and Aramco had not commented, and the Houthis had not claimed responsibility. The group usually announces such attacks within 24 hours.

The reported incident came amid an intensification of fighting in Yemen. The Houthis reported Saudi strikes on the capital, Sanaa, and the provinces of Saada, Taiz and Amran, while Yemen’s internationally recognized government claimed that its warplanes carried out 20 strikes against Houthi positions and forces in Taiz on October 2.

The escalation followed reports of Houthi advances on several fronts in Taiz, where the group has been seeking to expand its positions and cut routes linking government-held areas.

Yemeni military officials have disputed some Houthi claims of territorial gains, and the front lines in Taiz remained contested.

The developments also came shortly after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia was preparing an offensive against the Houthis that could begin within weeks. The operation would reportedly rely on more than 100,000 Yemeni ground troops overseen by Riyadh and supported by Saudi strikes, with the campaign aimed in part at reversing Houthi gains along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

All recent developments indicate that the war in Yemen is about to heat up even further. Efforts to de-escalate do not appear to be moving forward.

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MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• Saudi Arabia Is Preparing Large-Scale Offensive With 100,000 Troops Against Houthis
• In Video: Houthi Snipers Gun Down More Than a Dozen Fighters in Saudi Arabia

 

The post Smoke Covers Saudi Capital After Suspected Houthi Attack on Key Refinery (Videos) appeared first on South Front.

Illustrative image. (U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis)

Saudi Arabia is preparing a large-scale offensive against the Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen that could involve more than 100,000 Yemeni troops and seek to retake the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Reuters reported on October 2, citing regional and Western officials familiar with the preparations.

The operation could begin in the coming weeks and would be carried out primarily by Yemeni government forces overseen by Riyadh, with Saudi air support, according to six people familiar with the plans.

Saudi officials are considering either a concentrated assault around Bab el-Mandeb or a wider campaign involving simultaneous attacks in Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

The planned offensive would aim to reverse the Houthis’ gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and restore control over Bab el-Mandeb, which links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a major shipping route between Asia and the Mediterranean. The strait has taken on greater importance as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed during the conflict with Iran, Reuters reported.

The timing has not been settled. Sources cited by Reuters gave possible dates ranging from within a week to a period after the United States midterm elections in early November.

Saudi and Western officials told the news agency that Riyadh does not consider renewed peace talks with the Houthis viable while the group retains control of Bab el-Mandeb.

The U.S. is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations, according to a Western diplomat cited by Reuters. Direct U.S. combat involvement is not expected, however.

Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied military equipment for Saudi operations in Yemen. Pakistan sent four cargo aircraft to Aden last month carrying air defense systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone equipment, according to a Pakistani official.

Pakistani military advisers are operating alongside Saudi counterparts, while Turkish drones previously purchased by Riyadh have been deployed over Yemen.

Saudi Arabia is also seeking to protect its oil infrastructure and other strategic sites from Houthi missile and drone attacks.

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia for border protection and assistance with missile and drone interceptions, although Islamabad has not decided to send those forces into Yemen for combat, a Pakistani official told Reuters.

Any ground campaign would rely heavily on Yemeni factions backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier stages of the civil war. Divisions among those forces remain a significant factor as Riyadh considers a broader offensive.

An offensive of such scale would put some serious pressure on the Houthis. However, the group faced such pressure in the past and prevailed. In addition, Saudi Arabia could face a major response, not just from the group, but also from its allies, including Iran and Shia armed factions in Iraq. Such a move could even ignite a regional conflict.

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MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• In Video: Houthi Snipers Gun Down More Than a Dozen Fighters in Saudi Arabia
• Fighting Escalates In Yemen

The post Saudi Arabia Is Preparing Large-Scale Offensive With 100,000 Troops Against Houthis appeared first on South Front.

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Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) released nearly five minutes of video on October 1 showing their snipers killing at least 17 personnel along the border with the Saudi province of Jizan. 

The Houthis’ military media said those targeted included Saudi soldiers, Yemeni government fighters and mercenaries from Sudan.

The video was released as the Houthis continued missile and drone attacks against targets across Saudi Arabia, including in Jizan.

On October 1, Saudi Arabia said its air defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles and four drones launched toward the kingdom. One missile was intercepted over Jizan and the other over Khamis Mushait, where debris from the interception caused limited damage to buildings and vehicles. All four drones were reportedly intercepted over Khamis Mushait.

Saudi authorities also disclosed on October 1 that an investigation had concluded that the Houthis were responsible for a drone strike on the Taiba power distribution station in Medina on September 29. The strike put one transformer out of service but did not disrupt the wider electricity network. The Houthis denied responsibility.

Later on October 2, Saudi Arabia reported another interception, saying a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward Khamis Mushait was destroyed before reaching its target.

The latest attacks close to the border may be a sign of an imminent Houthi offensive there. The group has in the past carried out large-scale cross-border raids into the kingdom.

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SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

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MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• Fighting Escalates In Yemen
• Netanyahu Met With Arab Officials, Including Saudis, To Counter The Houthis

The post In Video: Houthi Snipers Gun Down More Than a Dozen Fighters in Saudi Arabia appeared first on South Front.