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The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached 40 percent support in Brandenburg for the first time in a new poll, twice the level of the governing Social Democrats (SPD) and enough to make any coalition without the party or its potential partners extremely difficult.

The Insa survey, conducted for the Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung, Märkische Oderzeitung and Lausitzer Rundschau and published this week, put the AfD at 40 percent, up 6 points from the institute’s previous Brandenburg poll in March.

BRANDENBURG | Sonntagsfrage Landtagswahl INSA/MAZ, MOZ, LR AfD: 40% (+6) SPD: 20% (-4) CDU: 9% (-5) LINKE: 9% (+2) BSW: 7% (-1) GRÜNE: 7% (+2) Sonstige: 8% Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 21. März 2026 Verlauf: https://t.co/R7Fb0r9hmo #ltwbb https://t.co/Ww2EhzqHy6

— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) October 9, 2026

The Social Democrats of longtime Minister-President Dietmar Woidke stood at 20 percent, down four points. The Christian Democrats (CDU), the SPD’s current coalition partner, fell five points to 9 percent. The Left Party also reached 9 percent, while the Greens and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) each stood at 7 percent.

It is important to note that the next regular state election is not due until autumn 2029, which means support could shift substantially in three years. Nevertheless, the result for the AfD mirrors nationwide trends, especially in the east of Germany, where the AfD recently won in neighboring Saxony-Anhalt by earning 43.8 percent of the vote in the September election.

Brandenburg’s AfD state leader René Springer called the result “a tremendous vote of confidence” that showed “how great the desire for a political new beginning in Brandenburg is.” He added that the party’s goal remained an absolute majority so it could govern the state alone.

Trouble forming a coalition

The numbers underscore the difficulty of forming a government that excludes both the AfD and the left-wing BSW.

German schools face increasing violence due to mass immigration. In the city of Cottbus, the public prosecutor has launched 18 criminal investigations into cases of serious violence in the migrant-dominated Regine Hildebrandt Primary School. A father from the school told reporters there were "at least two to three attacks" a week before he took his children out of school. He said that the names of the perpetrators were "for example, Ali, Mohammed and Ahmed." The school has drawn national attention due to extreme violence. In an open letter, parents reported physical attacks with serious injuries, including one student who suffered a concussion. In addition, students were using pepper spray, as well as fighting with kicks and punches. Dennis Hohloch, an Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP, said in response: "Immigration is the biggest problem, the biggest safety risk for our children in our schools. We had 3,209 violent offenses at our schools in 2024. If you take the 190 school days a year, that’s 17 violent offenses a day. This figure is 20% higher than 4 years ago. Violence in schools, especially here in Brandenburg, can no longer be minimized or glossed over, even if the SPD and the Ministry of Education keep trying." Brandenburg Interior Minister René Wilke affirmed that the list of criminal offenses in the just one school is "very, very long and varied." He described dangerous bodily harm, threats, insults, and coercion. Wilke described "aggressiveness and willingness to use violence being a prominent dimension." Cottbus Mayor Tobias Schick, who belongs to the far-left SPD, admitted during a press conference in August 2025 that the problem is a consequence "of partly unregulated, partly uncontrolled immigration in recent years."

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 16, 2026

The current SPD-CDU coalition would command only 29 percent. In the 2024 state election, the SPD won with 30.9 percent, the AfD finished second with 29.2 percent, the BSW took 13.5 percent and the CDU 12.1 percent.

After that vote, Woidke initially formed a coalition with the BSW; the alliance collapsed earlier this year following internal BSW disputes, including the departure of Finance Minister Robert Crumbach and other lawmakers, and the SPD later reached a new agreement with the CDU.

Given the poll results in Brandenburg, another possible government coalition would involve the BSW and AfD. Currently, in Saxony-Anhalt, both parties are in discussions to form a ruling government. If that government forms and manages to hold together, it could form a template for ruling governments in the east of the country, where AfD and BSW are strongest. At the same time, the AfD is rapidly growing in the west of the country as well, which is key to its national support, as the western states have far higher population numbers and political weight than the east.

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