This story originally appeared in Panamerican Dispatch on Sep. 29, 2026, and is shared here with permission.
The close relationship between the Bolsonaro family and key figures in the international far right like Steve Bannon and U.S. President Donald Trump has been public knowledge for over eight years. In this article, tech specialist Miguel Manso looks at the state of that relationship, right now, just days before Brazil’s first-round presidential elections. – ed.
Just days before the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, a confidential report from the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin) warns that the United States is influencing the country’s electoral process. Titled “Threats to the 2026 Electoral Process,” the report was sent in late August to the presidency, the Superior Electoral Court and the Justice Ministry, warning that U.S. interference has reached a “critical” level.
Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has become the target of legal action over claims that it benefited from paid ads and mass messaging originating in the United States.
The coalitions backing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Renan Santos of the Missão party asked the Superior Electoral Court and the Supreme Federal Court to investigate the senator for economic and political abuse of power and foreign interference.
The court filings allege the following:
Foreign amplification: U.S.-based right-wing profiles and influencers, including American political figures, allegedly ran paid campaign content on X in support of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Paid partnerships: The posts, labeled “paid partnership,” cited figures from the foreign betting platform Polymarket to claim that Bolsonaro was the favorite, distorting the actual state of Brazilian polling.
Prohibited financing: The parties allege that this amounts to the use of funds from outside the official campaign structure and financed from a foreign source, both of which are strictly prohibited under Brazilian electoral law.
The lawsuits ask for the immediate removal of the posts, a Federal Police investigation, and, if the irregularities are confirmed, the loss of candidacy and ineligibility for those involved.
The attempted murder of Nadia Beller has drawn investigators toward Fernando Cerimedo and a web of other connections, including drug-trafficking flights and Bolivia’s top anti-narcotics police official, who allegedly identified the hitmen. Cerimodo is known for his work with far-right political leaders in Latin America.
On August 17, 2026, two gunmen on a motorcycle shot Nadia Beller, a Bolivian lawyer and Cerimedo’s girlfriend, outside a hotel in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. She survived but was wounded in the neck, chest and arm.
Bolivian police have identified Colombian national Aldúbar Henry Silva Peña as the lead shooter. He fled immediately after the attack, then released a video in September 2026 admitting his role in planning the crime, though he claimed the original plan was only to “scare” Beller. He led a group of five, including four other operatives — two Colombians and two Brazilians — whose identities have not been released by investigators. All four remain at large.
Police detained Víctor Hugo C.Z. and formally charged him as an accomplice who worked directly with the gunmen. They arrested Róger Aguilera on charges of supplying the .32 caliber weapon used in the attack, and arrested Paola Andrea Vargas on charges of hiding and storing it.
Bolivian authorities arrested Argentine political consultant Fernando Cerimedo, known for his work with Trump’s MAGA movement and Beller’s former partner, at Viru Viru International Airport. Bolivia’s public prosecutor’s office accuses him of masterminding the attempted femicide.
A forensic review of Cerimedo’s phone revealed real-time messages with Erik Correa González, the Bolivian government’s head of intelligence, confirming that the shooting took place at the exact moment the two were exchanging messages. Beller has said publicly that the attack was ordered to silence her before she could expose corruption, money laundering and illicit dealings involving Cerimedo and local government officials.
Investigators found two key pieces of evidence: a text note written six days before the attack that used the phrase “La Nadia” alongside an intent to “eliminate” the victim, and a message sent at 8:54 p.m. on August 17 to a contact identified as “E.C.G.,” reading, “Brother, they just shot her.”
The investigation also dug into Cerimedo’s finances. On his phone, police found a note referring to a “virtual wallet” that had moved about $66,000 over the previous 11 months across more than 320 transfers, and a larger “pass-through wallet” that had moved $1,386,997. In searches, police seized about $400,000 in cash, along with 500,000 Bolivian bolivianos, weapons, vehicles and equipment for a “bot farm” — automated accounts used to manipulate social media and elections.
Beller’s allegations against her former partner are shaking the governments of Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia, Javier Milei in Argentina, José Antonio Kast in Chile, Nasry Asfura in Honduras and Colombia’s Abelardo De La Espriella, along with their ties to the Bolsonaro family. Her account has helped expose a techno-fascist network aimed at manipulating and interfering in elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Colombia — and even in Mexico’s upcoming election — through bot and troll farms that Cerimedo’s team ran from Argentina and Santa Cruz de la Sierra in Bolivia.
The goal, investigators say, was to install leaders who would serve U.S. and Israeli interests, backed by the Shield of the Americas alliance, promotion from the outlet La Derecha Diario, and financing from Trump and his allies channeled through Milei. Cerimedo has been described as a CIA and Mossad asset.
Fernando Cerimedo, known as the “king of bots” for the Latin American far right, is also under investigation for money laundering and alleged ties to drug trafficking. Prosecutors are trying to determine whether he was part of a network that facilitated irregular flights carrying up to 500 kilograms of cocaine per trip and returning with large amounts of cash.
Searching properties tied to Cerimedo in Bolivia, authorities seized large sums of cash and found evidence of a technical setup built to automatically create fake online accounts — commonly known as a “bot farm.”
It was already known that a global network links Donald Trump’s MAGA movement with right-wing leaders across Latin America, funded through an international web of businesspeople and drug traffickers and operating through artificial intelligence manipulation and integrated data networks used for cyberattacks.
These groups organize at high-profile political events and forums, such as Mar-a-Lago and the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), where strategists and data operatives share methods for digital engagement and fundraising.
Cerimedo has said in interviews that no one formally introduced him to Eduardo Bolsonaro. The two say they met by chance at Harvard University in 2010. But when news outlets asked Harvard directly, the university said it had no record that either Eduardo Bolsonaro or Fernando Gabriel Cerimedo had ever been enrolled there. Confronted with this, Cerimedo later claimed he had only taken open, non-degree classes.
As part of the Federal Police investigation into the attempted coup in Brazil, investigators found that in 2022, military officers and aides brokered Cerimedo’s ties to the hardline core of the Bolsonaro movement, producing false reports attacking the integrity of Brazil’s voting machines.
Reports based on the plea-deal testimony of Mauro Cid identify Army Col. Ângelo Denicoli as the officer who contacted Cerimedo and coordinated the technical details needed to carry out broadcasts and attacks on Brazil’s electoral system.
The Federal Police obtained electronic records showing that Cerimedo’s phone number and contact information were passed directly to Denicoli. Forensic analysis of seized phones showed that Denicoli became the main point of contact with the Argentine consultant, coordinating the materials sent to him.
Cid formally confirmed in testimony that Denicoli was the direct link between the criminal organization and Cerimedo, saying Denicoli was part of the group tasked with gathering data to support claims that the electronic voting machines had failed.
Technical evidence linked Denicoli, Cerimedo and technology entrepreneur Eder Balbino. Balbino and Denicoli compiled reports containing false arguments and data based on outdated voting-machine models, then passed the files to Cerimedo, who used them as visual material for his broadcasts.
Digital cross-referencing by the Federal Police showed that the data Cerimedo presented in his broadcasts from Argentina contained the same mathematical inconsistencies and formatting as the documents manipulated by the Liberal Party’s technical committee in Brazil. Investigators concluded that Cerimedo had not discovered the material independently, but received it from the structure Denicoli managed.
Investigators also found that Denicoli was part of what they called the Disinformation and Electoral System Attack Unit. The Federal Police traced digital records linking Denicoli directly to fake ballot-audit files stored in a public Google Drive folder belonging to Cerimedo, with Denicoli listed as the folder’s original owner and editor.
Denicoli coordinated the technical compilation of false reports with Balbino. The material was passed to Cerimedo, who used it in the “fraud livestream” broadcast from Argentina in November 2022 and amplified in Brazil by Eduardo Bolsonaro.
In a trial concluded by the Supreme Court, Denicoli received the harshest sentence among the defendants in his group: 17 years in a closed prison regime, on charges of attempting a coup, seeking the violent overthrow of Brazil’s democratic order, and participating in an armed criminal organization.
The connection between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rúbio and Argentine digital strategist Fernando Cerimedo took shape starting in 2023, with lobbyist and political consultant Damián Merlo acting as the intermediary.
Merlo, who owns the Miami-based Latin America Advisory Group, serves as a link between conservative Latin American politicians and power centers within the U.S. MAGA movement. According to filings under the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act, Merlo used his relationship with Viviana Bovo, a senior adviser to Rúbio, to introduce Cerimedo and his data tools directly to the office of the then senator, who is now secretary of state.
Cerimedo founded the agency Numen and the outlet La Derecha Diario, specializing in “bot farms” and algorithm manipulation to shape social media trends. In Chile, he worked on the campaign that defeated the 2022 constitutional referendum. In Brazil, he helped the Bolsonaro family spread disinformation about voting machines after the 2022 election. And in Argentina, he led the digital strategy behind Javier Milei’s election in 2023.
Brad Parscale, the top digital strategist for Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential campaigns, became Cerimedo’s business partner at the political consulting firm Numen, based in Buenos Aires.
Through that partnership, Cerimedo took over managing the Latin American operations of tools such as Campaign Nucleus and Eyes Over — data-mining and artificial intelligence platforms created or linked to Parscale. The partnership combined Parscale’s expertise in U.S. data operations with the infrastructure Cerimedo had built across Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Bolivia.
Brad Parscale earned the trust of the Trump family and went on to design websites for their businesses, before being chosen to lead the digital strategy for Donald Trump’s 2015 presidential campaign.
In 2016, as the campaign’s digital media director, he led a data operation called Project Alamo, directing much of the budget toward highly targeted social media ads and producing as many as 60,000 different Facebook ad variations a day.
In February 2018, Trump named Parscale campaign manager for his 2020 reelection bid.
Parscale’s ties to Big Tech and to Peter Thiel’s Palantir Technologies span strategic data cooperation, political alignment and technology supply.
Thiel, a Palantir cofounder, was one of the major Silicon Valley billionaires who directly backed and funded Trump’s 2016 campaign. Palantir builds surveillance and analytical intelligence software for governments and defense agencies.
Parscale created Campaign Nucleus, a platform meant to build a communications structure and data ecosystem. The data-mining and AI model it uses mirrors the mass-processing and information-control concepts associated with Palantir.
The ecosystem functions as an integrated chain: Thiel’s Palantir develops surveillance and data-intelligence technology, which feeds into political software such as Parscale’s Campaign Nucleus, and Parscale in turn distributes that technology across Latin America through Cerimedo’s Numen.
These companies’ ties to Israel and its government center on two main areas: artificial intelligence for military targeting, and cyberwarfare and digital influence operations.
In January 2024, Palantir signed a direct strategic agreement with Israel’s Defense Ministry to supply advanced AI technology supporting “war-related missions.”
In July 2026, international journalistic investigations revealed that Parscale was registered as a foreign agent of Israel in the United States. The Israeli government hired Parscale’s main firm, Clock Tower X, through a $46.5 million contract to carry out a digital influence operation.
According to the reporting, the company built a network of pro-Israel propaganda websites and blogs while also producing search-optimized content designed to shape the databases artificial intelligence systems draw on.
Cerimedo’s Numen is described as the Latin American link in that network, applying Campaign Nucleus data concepts and bot infrastructure through La Derecha Diario.
The relationship is described as symbiotic: Israel provides public contracts, Palantir supplies data technology, Clock Tower X uses that funding for digital influence operations, and Numen carries out the messaging and bot infrastructure in Latin America.
The tactics have evolved from spreading disinformation on social media to manipulating institutional digital ecosystems.
Generative Engine Optimization, or GEO, is described as a technique meant to flood the internet with doctrinal texts and fake academic research centers, so that the crawlers used by systems such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude absorb that propaganda as factual information. As a result, when people ask artificial intelligence systems about geopolitical topics or elections, those systems can end up repeating narratives that this network planted beforehand.
The dismantling of Cerimedo’s structures in Bolivia also revealed the use of tens of thousands of automated phones running AI software designed to simulate human behavior, making it harder for social media platforms to detect and block them.
Trump’s MAGA strategists, working with Eduardo and Flávio Bolsonaro, continue trying to interfere in Brazil’s election despite Cerimedo’s arrest — evidence of a powerful alliance working jointly to manipulate and defraud the political landscape and bring Latin America under U.S. control. The question is: for how long?
This article was originally published in Brasil 247. It has been translated to English by Panamerican Dispatch and can be read in its original Portuguese, here.
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No one would claim that the Iran War has been a political godsend for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. But some Israel-First conservatives are willing to say—and lately have been incessantly saying—that the Iran War hasn’t been a political scourge.
Those Israel-First conservatives are wrong, even if the devil is, at least partly, hidden in the details. The Iran War has damaged Trump’s approval ratings, consumed his presidency, and darkened the GOP’s prospects in the upcoming midterm elections.
A chief proponent of the argument that Trump hasn’t suffered all that much from the Iran War is Ben Shapiro of the Daily Wire. Shapiro’s political analysis is plainly motivated by the fact that he was a loud and influential proponent of the war who promised—falsely, as it turned out—that Iran couldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for the global energy trade.
“There’s an op right now to pretend that the real reason for President Trump’s unpopularity is foreign policy, but that is not true, by the polling data, it is not true,” said Shapiro on a recent episode of his podcast. “The reality is that Americans have affordability concerns, President Trump came into office saying he was going to alleviate the affordability concerns. He has not in fact alleviated the affordability concerns, and therefore, his polling numbers have consistently slid since Liberation Day.”
This is a bit like me saying my wife isn’t mad at me because of the drinking, but because I drunkenly crashed the car.
The Iran War, as everyone now knows, has driven up prices at the pump—prices which, unfortunately for Trump, are prominently displayed on every major street across the country. On the eve of the war, regular gasoline averaged $2.98 per gallon. Today, at the time of writing, the average price is $4.48. Americans are notoriously averse to high gasoline prices and tend to punish presidents over the issue, sometimes even when the president can’t justifiably be blamed.
But make no mistake: Virtually every sentient adult understands that 1) oil comes from the Middle East, 2) Trump started a big war in the region, and 3) gas prices shot up right afterwards. And again, even if Americans didn’t grok the connection between the war and the gas-price spike, the latter would still have hurt Trump politically, and it would still be a knock-on effect of the former.
It’s not just prices at the pump that have gone up because of the war. Groceries and other consumer goods travel across this vast land on tractor-trailers that run on diesel and get a lot fewer miles per gallon than even your Uncle Larry’s F-350. Diesel prices have smashed records and now sit at around $6.50, up from $3.76 before the war.
No wonder truckers are furious, prompting rumors of an imminent strike.
And no wonder the Iran War has contributed to general inflation in America. Anyone who has been reading the official economic reports knows the war is responsible for more than a third of recent inflation.
Before the war, inflation was trending down, only a couple ticks away from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. It seems likely that Trump, if he hadn’t started his dumb war in the Middle East, would have garnered praise for presiding over declining inflation and that the Fed would have cut interest rates, juicing economic growth. Instead, inflation now sits at 3.4 percent.
(As an aside, this weekend I traveled to Istanbul, where many Middle Easterners of various nationalities complained to me that Americans only oppose the war because of the gas prices. That’s simply not true. The war has been unpopular since day one, when all that Americans knew was the American-Israeli strikes had killed Iranian leaders including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.)
Shapiro, ever the neoconservative, insinuated in the quote above that the decline in Trump’s approval rating owes more to his tariffs than to his war. The data doesn’t back that up, as the conservative commentator and election analyst Ryan Girdusky noted on X in response to new survey data. “The most eye opening part of this poll is that Trump’s approval rating and the strength of the economy went up right after Liberation Day,” Girdusky said. “Fell slightly afterward and then plummeted at the start of the Iran War.”
Shapiro has unwittingly helped uncover another, subtler, way in which the Iran War has indirectly damaged Trump’s approval ratings and, by extension, the Republican Party brand. Shapiro recently went on Fox News to commiserate with the host Mark Levin—another Israel-Firster and warmonger—over all those dastardly antiwar conservatives blaming the Iran War for everything.
“Iran is a 4-percent issue with the American people,” Levin said, as Shapiro nodded in agreement. Levin was referring to Fox News polling that shows not many Americans name the Iran War as their top issue. “So, whatever happens in the midterms, it doesn’t appear that Iran’s going to drive anything one way or another.”
“I think that’s exactly right,” Shapiro replied.
Part of the problem with Levin’s analysis has already been covered above. In the Fox poll, a plurality of Americans—34 percent—named the cost of living as the most important issue, and the Iran War has made living costlier.
But the subtler problem is perhaps even more illuminating. Simply put, Americans believe Trump is too focused on foreign policy at the expense of the problem they really care about, which, in fact, his Iran War has exacerbated. This is a PR disaster for the Trump administration and the GOP. Americans don’t prioritize the war that has dominated the headlines and distracted the White House, even as Trump claims to have boldly prevented Iran from unleashing nuclear apocalypse.
It may be grotesque to find silver linings in this dumb and deadly war, but here’s one: Americans no longer buy the war narratives. That is certainly not, however, a silver lining for Republican candidates in this year’s election, no matter how cynically they try to distance themselves from the war. In fact, it’s a good bet they’ll do much worse than if Trump hadn’t launched this unnecessary war, despite what Shapiro and his ilk may tell you.
Original article: theamericanconservative.com
Le 27 octobre, les électeurs israéliens se déplaceront aux urnes pour renouveler leur Parlement. Au-delà de la question de l'avenir politique du premier ministre sortant Benyamin Netanyahou, l'enjeu du scrutin réside dans la confirmation, ou non, de l'essor du sionisme religieux. Partisan d'une annexion des territoires palestiniens, ce courant contribue à une polarisation extrême de la société.
La mise en œuvre du projet sioniste a pris des décennies avant la naissance d'Israël. La situation actuelle doit interroger sur l'avenir de cet État, du moins dans sa forme actuelle. Sans chercher à susciter la crainte ni à faire de prophéties. Un éventuel effondrement ne se ferait pas en un jour. Mais une fissure majeure ronge les fondations : la montée en puissance de ce qu'il convient d'appeler l'État de Judée, par opposition à l'État d'Israël. Autrement dit, l'irrésistible émergence d'un mouvement fusionnant sionisme religieux et judaïsme orthodoxe, et dont les partisans veulent un État théocratique. Une forme de sionisme raciste et suprémaciste façonne leur projet radical de création d'un « Grand Israël » étendu à toute la Palestine historique. La situation des Palestiniens se dégraderait plus encore si cette force politique devenait hégémonique. Mais les citoyens juifs qui veulent vivre dans un État libéral, démocratique et pluraliste en pâtiraient également.
Au cœur idéologique de l'État de Judée, on trouve les colons religieux de Cisjordanie, pour beaucoup des disciples des rabbins Kook, père et fils. Le père, Abraham Isaac Kook (1865-1935), né en Lettonie, dans l'Empire russe, a fondé le sionisme religieux. À son arrivée en Palestine, en 1904, il devient la figure rabbinique de la remise en cause du point de vue juif orthodoxe selon lequel le sionisme est une tentative laïque d'interférer avec la volonté de Dieu qui ne saurait être soutenue par des Juifs pratiquants (1). Kook rallie à lui une partie de la communauté orthodoxe. Son legs principal à la cause ? Le centre d'études Merkaz HaRav (le « centre du rabbin »), soit le foyer de la forme la plus extrême du sionisme, un mélange d'idées messianiques, de racisme éhonté à l'égard des Palestiniens et de mépris pour le judaïsme réformé et laïque.
Le fils, Zvi Yehouda Kook (1891-1982), est, lui, le père spirituel du mouvement messianique Goush Emounim. Après la victoire de 1967 contre les armées arabes, ce « Bloc des fidèles », fondé en 1974, a judaïsé la Cisjordanie occupée et la bande de Gaza. Année après année, il a quitté les marges du système politique israélien jusqu'à en occuper le centre. Toute sa vie, le fils Kook a défendu la colonisation comme un impératif religieux, pour hâter la rédemption du peuple juif. Sa voix a pu se retrouver quelque peu étouffée dès lors que le Parti travailliste au pouvoir de 1967 à 1977 se montrait lui-même enclin à la judaïsation, en particulier dans les régions palestiniennes rurales qui sont aussi les moins densément peuplées. Et les disciples de Kook ne s'en satisfaisaient pas ; ils voulaient s'implanter dans les villes bibliques de Cisjordanie, où les Palestiniens vivaient alors très nombreux.
Mais une politique d'État finit par associer ces deux branches du projet d'accaparement de la Cisjordanie — la première fondée sur des considérations sécuritaires, la seconde portée par les aspirations religieuses de Goush Emounim — lorsque le Likoud arrive au pouvoir en 1977, avec comme premier ministre Menahem Begin. Sous ce premier gouvernement de droite de l'histoire d'Israël, le fils Kook s'impose comme le maître à penser des Juifs qui colonisent de grandes parties de la Cisjordanie, bâtissant leurs avant-postes au cœur de régions densément peuplées de Palestiniens. Cette colonisation agressive devait à leurs yeux accélérer la « désarabisation » de la Cisjordanie en rendant plus difficile l'accès des habitants palestiniens aux ressources essentielles comme la terre, l'eau et même l'emploi.
Sous l'œil attentif de l'armée israélienne, sinon avec son aide, cette stratégie impitoyable est mise en œuvre quotidiennement. Les Palestiniens subissent un harcèlement continu. Des colons les blessent parfois, ou les tuent. Si les gouvernements israéliens successifs condamnent formellement les violences et prétendent ne pas avoir connaissance de ce qui se passe sur le terrain, les forces armées stationnées en Cisjordanie appuient les colons religieux qui créent une nouvelle réalité, à la place de leurs dirigeants : celle d'un Israël étendu.
De leur point de vue, leurs agressions relèvent d'une forme de représailles, le « prix à payer » (tag meir) par ceux qui s'opposent à l'entreprise de colonisation. Quand bien même il s'agit le plus souvent d'attaques non provoquées et d'une grande violence contre des villages, des fermes, des véhicules, des commerces ou des champs appartenant à des Palestiniens (lire « Terreur coloniale en Cisjordanie ».) La participation au gouvernement actuel de deux partis pro-colons — Otzma Yehudit (Force juive) et HaTzionout HaDatit (Parti sioniste religieux) — conforte cette politique. Leurs représentants respectifs, MM. Itamar Ben-Gvir et Bezalel Smotrich, chargés de la sécurité nationale et des finances, ont joué un rôle déterminant dans la phase en cours d'attaques terrifiantes contre les Palestiniens en Cisjordanie, qui a fait plus de mille morts depuis octobre 2023.
Pour les partisans de l'État de Judée, une théocratie doit terminer le travail que le sionisme laïque n'a pas su mener à bien : la destruction du peuple palestinien et la formation d'un « Grand Israël » conforme à celui que décriraient les Écritures — ce qui, en clair, signifie l'annexion de territoires voisins. Les sionistes laïques ont certes accompli la basse besogne consistant à créer l'État d'Israël — un travail de plusieurs décennies, commencé en 1892 lorsque les premiers colons sionistes sont arrivés à Jaffa —, mais là s'arrête leur mission historique. Les Juifs religieux estiment qu'il leur revient, à présent, de transformer leur ancienne terre en un véritable État juif.
Mais là n'est pas ce qui fissure les fondations d'Israël ; la plupart des Juifs laïques s'accommodent de cette transformation aux dépens des Palestiniens et, sur le plan territorial, des voisins arabes, notamment libanais et syriens. Le vrai problème tient à l'hostilité des forces qui portent l'État de Judée à l'égard des Juifs laïques. Tôt ou tard, elle finira par saper ce qui unifie et rassemble la société israélienne. Et la confrontation est déjà là.
L'État de Judée a remporté les élections législatives de novembre 2022 et formé un gouvernement de coalition fondé sur une étroite majorité à la Knesset de soixante-quatre députés sur cent vingt. Sa première décision, en janvier 2023, a consisté à modifier le système judiciaire du pays pour le conformer à son idéologie et à sa vision, en permettant au gouvernement de nommer les juges et en restreignant les capacités de la Cour suprême à juger de la constitutionnalité des lois votées au Parlement. Cette décision a fait monter les tensions entre les deux camps et provoqué des manifestations de laïques d'une ampleur sans précédent et toujours plus massives, jusqu'aux attaques du 7 octobre 2023 (2). Le bras de fer a révélé l'ampleur de la division entre les deux camps. Il s'agit en effet d'un combat existentiel entre des projets antagonistes, d'une lutte à mort autour de la vocation même de cet État fondé en 1948.
Pour l'heure, seule la crainte d'une disparition d'Israël oblige les deux parties à ne pas se désolidariser de manière définitive. Leur dénominateur commun demeure la perpétuation d'un système qui déshumanise les Palestiniens et nie leurs droits civiques et humains fondamentaux. On sait comment l'État de Judée considère les Palestiniens. Mais l'État d'Israël ne fait guère mieux. Certes, il est laïque, puisque surtout composé de descendants de Juifs européens qui souhaitent profiter d'une démocratie libérale. Mais ceux-ci n'ont
eux-mêmes cessé d'asseoir leur pouvoir sur la subordination des Palestiniens. Ils ne peuvent rien leur proposer de plus que le retrait des colonies de quelques parties de la Cisjordanie occupée et la levée de certaines des restrictions imposées aux habitants de la bande de Gaza. Leur vision actuelle de l'État juif ne remet pas fondamentalement en cause le régime d'apartheid qu'Israël est devenu.
L'État de Judée, quant à lui, se satisfait pour l'heure de sa situation favorable sur l'échiquier politique. Mais plus il gagne du terrain sur le plan électoral, plus Israël est menacé. Car l'élite technologique et financière, sur laquelle repose la prospérité de cet État, appartient majoritairement au camp laïque. Qu'elle vienne à quitter le pays, et c'est l'économie et la cohésion sociale qui en pâtiront. Or, depuis le 7 octobre 2023, on estime que plus d'un demi-million de membres du camp laïque-libéral auraient émigré. Cela ouvre la voie à de nouveaux triomphes électoraux d'un État de Judée qui ne dispose pas des capacités économiques et militaires ni même du sens stratégique nécessaires à la survie d'Israël.
Et cette perspective est d'autant plus inquiétante que les institutions du pays sont déjà très fragilisées. Plus d'une décennie avant les attaques du 7 octobre 2023, Israël était déjà en crise. En décembre 2010, un feu de forêt a fait rage pendant plus de trois jours sur le mont Carmel, tuant quarante-quatre personnes. La gravité de la situation était telle que le gouvernement de M. Benyamin Netanyahou a fait appel à l'aide étrangère, notamment celle de la Grèce, de l'Italie, de la Russie et de la Turquie (3), pour venir à bout de l'incendie. Cet appel au secours a provoqué la stupéfaction des observateurs internationaux, qui s'attendaient à ce qu'un pays qui a connu plusieurs guerres dans son histoire récente soit doté d'un matériel de lutte contre le feu adéquat. Plus récemment, en avril 2021, la bousculade lors du pèlerinage du mont Méron, dans le nord du pays, qui a fait quarante-cinq morts et près de cent cinquante blessés, est un autre exemple de l'impéritie des autorités. De nombreuses mises en garde avaient pourtant été lancées contre le danger que pouvaient constituer d'importants mouvements de foule dans un lieu aussi étroit. En mars 2024, qualifiant le drame de « désastre qui aurait pu être évité », une commission d'enquête a directement mis en cause le premier ministre (4).
« Où est l'État ? » Voilà la question que de nombreuses personnes se posent en Israël, y compris les citoyens arabes confrontés, depuis plusieurs années, à une flambée de meurtres liés au crime organisé (5). Au lendemain des attaques du 7 octobre 2023, cette interrogation a pris une importance nouvelle en raison des pertes humaines jusqu'alors inimaginables subies par le pays. Ni le gouvernement ni les services publics dans leur ensemble n'ont semblé en mesure de répondre aux milliers de personnes qui avaient besoin d'aide pendant et après les affrontements. Des dizaines de milliers d'habitants des zones frontalières avec le Liban et Gaza ont dû être évacués, et le gouvernement n'avait pas de plan concret pour leur hébergement, leur scolarisation ou leur emploi à long terme. Les autorités ont d'ailleurs tout fait pour que ces déplacés retournent chez eux aussi vite que possible. Si ce fut le cas pour 90 % d'entre eux, l'avenir demeure incertain pour les 10 % restants — pour la plupart des survivants des kibboutz presque entièrement détruits au cours des affrontements. Les autorités demeurent réticentes à continuer de financer leur relogement dans d'autres régions. Certaines des personnes évacuées de la région frontalière avec le Liban ont découvert avec stupéfaction combien Israël avait négligé leurs communautés depuis des décennies. L'une d'elles témoignait ainsi dans le quotidien Haaretz : « Nous avons été abandonnés, délaissés, oubliés. (…) Pendant des années, nous étions invisibles, on se débrouillait avec presque rien, et tout d'un coup nous avons découvert un autre Israël — un Israël où les services de santé sont accessibles, où il y a de la culture, des transports publics (6). »
Pourquoi Israël, qui ne cesse de rappeler à qui veut l'entendre les dangers que représentent ses voisins et qui sollicite régulièrement une assistance militaire généreuse, était-il si peu préparé aux défis logistiques que les guerres entraînent dans leur sillage ? Pourquoi n'existait-il pas de plan d'évacuation des zones frontalières ? Cela s'explique par une fonction publique à la botte du système politique, où les nominations viennent récompenser des positions d'allégeance, sous la supervision de ministres pour qui la rhétorique prime sur tout le reste, notamment sur la mise en œuvre concrète des politiques. Bien sûr, les défaillances de la fonction publique ne constituent pas nécessairement une fissure dans les fondations du pays — des réformes et des changements dans l'administration pourraient améliorer la situation. Cependant, tant que l'État de Judée sera au pouvoir, il est très improbable qu'il mette l'infrastructure publique parmi ses priorités, ce qui ne peut qu'exacerber la désagrégation sociale.
(1) Lire Anne Waeles, « “Dieu n'existe pas, mais il nous a donné cette terre” », Le Monde diplomatique, avril 2024.
(2) Lire Charles Enderlin, « Israël, le coup d'État identitaire », Le Monde diplomatique, février 2023.
(3) « Israel accepts foreign aid in tackling deadly forest fire », France 24, 4 décembre 2010.
(4) « Israël : une enquête pointe la “responsabilité” de Netanyahou dans une bousculade mortelle en 2021 », Radio France Internationale (RFI), 6 mars 2024.
(5) Majd Kayyal, « Israël. Le crime organisé gangrène la société palestinienne de l'intérieur », Orient XXI, 19 mai 2026.
(6) Shlomit Tsur, « “We suddenly discovered another Israel” : Why these war evacuees chose not to return home », Haaretz, Tel-Aviv, 22 octobre 2024.
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