The NBA is just a few days old and we've already seen two teams blow 20-point leads. That happens more often than you'd probably imagine, and this year I'm making a point to live bet on the team that is losing big. Last night the 76ers looked awful, but they came back in the second half of the game and covered the short spread. I'm sure it will happen somewhere today as well. There are a ton of great games to choose from, but I've got my eye on the Hawks and Hornets game.

The Atlanta Hawks are one of the teams that have a bit of excitement behind them coming into this year. They revamped their roster quite a bit over the past few years, but now it seems like they have decided to build their team around Jalen Johnson. It also helps that they have two really good defenders - Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels. The team moved on from Trae Young last year, who was a facilitator and scorer for them, but also a parking cone on defense, and it never seemed like the team worked with him.

This team is now a little more athletic and younger, but still grounded with a couple of key veterans like CJ McCollum. In their opening game against the Magic, I was most impressed with their shot selection. As a team, they shot 50% from the field and 40% from deep. You really can't expect that to happen consistently, but they did create the good shots. Defensively, they really weren't impressive. They still gave up 125 points to the Magic, which is a lot for an Orlando team that isn't known for being offensively efficient.

The Charlotte Hornets remain one of those teams that I really can't understand. They have been terrible for years, and the one time they sniffed success, they decided it was time to trade away their (arguably) best player. They sent LaMelo Ball over to the Timberwolves, but that's probably because they have Coby White, and they seem to want to invest in Kon Knueppel. Unfortunately for them, Knueppel is out with an injury right now, so the team is missing a major player.

In their first game, they unveiled their new-look roster and beat the Brooklyn Nets on the road. This team is comprised of multiple role players, but right now, their biggest semblance of a star is Brandon Miller. No offense to Miller, but if he is responsible for leading the team for multiple games, you're probably asking for trouble. I do think the Hornets are going to be hovering around the play-in positioning for the postseason, but I really don't think they've improved from last year.

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I really don't enjoy taking favorites on the road in the NBA. Role players don't play as well on the road as they do at home, but in this one, I'm willing to make an exception. The Hawks are the better team, have a better offense, and I think they should win this one. They do play at home tomorrow, against a tougher opponent, so this could be a trap spot, but I'm going to take them on the moneyline at -135. I do think they know how to win, and I think the Hornets are trying to figure things out.

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It feels like just yesterday that I was betting on Paul Skenes to light up the Mets and keep them from scoring on Opening Day of the baseball season. I was dead wrong about that one because Skenes didn’t even last two innings in the game. Since then, it has been a pretty strong baseball season overall, but I’ve struggled a bit in the postseason. Game 1 of the World Series is tonight, and I’m looking forward to getting a win in this one.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been better at home than on the road this season, but in the playoffs they’ve gone 3-1. They were the best team in the American League and beat the Yankees, a divisional foe, in three games in the American League Division Series. It was a bit harder for them in the American League Championship Series as the Guardians took the Rays to six games. Ultimately, the Rays stopped the Cleveland offense, and that made the difference for the club in the series.

Tonight, they are sending out Nick Martinez to the hill. For the season, Martinez was 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He only has 109 strikeouts for the season; he isn’t really a power pitcher. He finds ways to get guys out, and that’s really what matters. In the postseason, he has allowed three earned runs over nine innings with just six strikeouts and three walks. He did not face the Brewers at all this season, but they are hitting .246 against him over 122 at-bats.

The Milwaukee Brewers were the best team in baseball this season, and they’ve looked like the best team in baseball in the postseason. The Brewers went 103-59 this season and were almost 30 games above .500 in Milwaukee. In the postseason, they’ve looked absolutely dominant, getting rid of the Padres in just four games. If you watched the Padres-Brewers series, you might have said the Padres could’ve won it. You’d be right. There were some odd games, but the Brewers never said die. That was the same result in the Dodgers series. Every time the Brewers went down, they came back and ultimately won the game.

It won’t be an easy night with Martinez on the mound, but they have their own elite starter going. Jacob Misiorowski takes the ball and brings a great campaign with him. He went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. He is a power pitcher and could throw one at 110 mph with all the adrenaline that will be going in this game. I only somewhat joke about that. He was elite in Milwaukee this season, posting a 1.52 ERA. In the postseason, he has looked a bit shaky. He has made two starts, gone 8.1 innings, and allowed three earned runs. He has allowed nine hits and four walks as well, which gives me a bit of concern. He faced the Rays earlier in the year and allowed two earned runs on four hits over six innings while striking out seven hitters.

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The Rays are a team that struggles against power pitching. Something feels different about the Brewers this season, like they are destined to win this year. I actually think Martinez starting is a terrible look for the Rays. It feels a bit like they will lose to Misiorowski, and they know it. I'm going to take the Brewers on the run line at +129. Pitching advantage, home field, and this lineup has the edge in this one and I don't think it will be close.

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