File image.

In the Sumy direction, Russian assault groups of the “North” grouping are pressing Ukrainian defenses in the forest tract north of Sumy, conducting small-arms fighting near Khoten and advancing through tree lines near Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units are increasing the pace of their advance in the area of the encirclement in the northeast of the region; they have taken Shirokoye and are fighting for Komissarovo, Lukashovo and Lobanovka. In the Slavyansk direction, Ukrainian units are attempting to clear the right bank of the Zherebets, infiltrating the northern part of Zarechnoye and attacking west of it, while Russian troops hold Zarechnoye and Yampol. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops are delivering FAB strikes against temporary deployment points in Preobrazhenka and Orekhov, have overcome a water obstacle and an anti-tank ditch on the Voskresenka–Barvinovka–Lyubitskoye line, and in the zone of the “Dnepr” grouping are advancing on a broad front near Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk and Yurkovka. The leader of the party “Debout la France,” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, called Europe’s rejection of Russian gas economic and social suicide against the background of a 42.4% price rise since the beginning of 2026.

Sumy direction  

Heavy positional fighting is under way on all sectors of the front. Assault groups of Russian units are pressing Ukrainian defenses in the forest tract north of Sumy and destroying positions with artillery and heavy flamethrower systems. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and has concentrated on holding the positions it occupies.

The situation around Kiyanitsa is extremely complicated: the Ukrainian side has accumulated a huge quantity of resources in the forest zones, and it is premature to speak of full control on this sector. Moreover, Ukrainian units are attacking near Yablonovka and Varachino, attempting to regain positions and making use of the last opportunity before the muddy season to take cover in the forests.

In the Sumy district, assault groups of Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting near Khoten. In Shostka district, assault groups continue to advance through tree lines near Korenok.  

Kharkiv direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping are increasing the pace of their advance in the area of the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the northeast of Kharkiv region. Ukrainian units are attempting to break the encirclement from the outside and are employing armor.

In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops advanced 200 meters near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units advanced deeper into the cauldron on more than 20 sectors of the front. Overall progress reached approximately 1,000 meters.

The Ukrainian side made two attempts to break the encirclement from the outside with two assault groups of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment on two “Kazak” armored fighting vehicles from the area of Veliky Burluk. As a result of comprehensive fire strikes the attempt was thwarted; one armored vehicle was destroyed and the second damaged.

The encirclement in the east of the Burluk direction is gradually tightening. Ukrainian formations are unable to force a reliable corridor for themselves, while Russian troops are systematically destroying disorganized units. Newly available objective-control footage confirms the capture of Shirokoye. Forward assault groups are already pressing Ukrainian forces on the territory of Komissarovo. Fighting for the village continues, and a focal Ukrainian presence still remains in the tree lines to the north and in the vicinity of Rublyonoye. Russian units are confidently advancing toward the center of the cauldron. On the morning of 9 October it became known that fighting had begun for Lukashovo and Lobanovka. The capture of Lobanovka is important for strengthening the southern face of the encirclement, which will complicate any potential breakout by Ukrainian units.  

Slavyansk direction  

The Ukrainian side has not abandoned attempts to clear the right bank of the Zherebets in the Liman direction. Ukrainian units continue to advance into the northern part of Zarechnoye and to develop the offensive west of the village with the aim of regaining control over several large strongpoints near the O-05-28 highway.

Should Zarechnoye be taken, the Ukrainian side would be able to place Russian units in the Svyatiye Gory park in a fire pocket. Nevertheless, it has not proved possible to isolate the fighters of the “West” grouping from supply from the direction of Torskoye, which makes it possible to retain control of the center of the village. The second direction of the Ukrainian strike remains the area of Yampol, the retention of which is also necessary for Russian troops in order to supply units in the Svyatiye Gory.

At present the most important tasks of Russian troops remain the holding of Zarechnoye and Yampol. Only in this case will it be possible to stabilize the front and preserve positions in the Serebryansky forestry, without control of which a new offensive on Liman will be impossible. In the area of Rai-Aleksandrovka Ukrainian units are conducting attacks.  

Zaporozhye direction  

In the Zaporozhye direction Russian troops are delivering FAB strikes against temporary deployment points of Ukrainian units in Preobrazhenka and Orekhov. On the eastern sector they are holding strong points on the western bank of the Verkhnyaya Tersa River and pressing the defenses. Assault groups have overcome a water obstacle and an anti-tank ditch on the Voskresenka–Barvinovka–Lyubitskoye line.

Further east, in the zone of the “Dnepr” grouping, the picture is different. Russian units continue to advance on a broad front. Fighting is under way near Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk, Lukyanovskoye, Pavlovka, Novoyakovlevka and Yurkovka. Active operations are also noted in the area of Orekhov and Preobrazhenka.

The Ukrainian side, attempting to hold the northern and western outskirts of Orekhov, is throwing reinforcements there. Units of the “East” grouping are already fighting on the outskirts of Omelnyk from the south-east and east. The aim is to reach the rear of the Orekhov–Preobrazhenka grouping. Further north, in the zone of the 5th Army, the preconditions for a broader envelopment are being created. Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino are under the control of Russian forces. Further south the situation remains complicated and reciprocal.  

Conclusion  

In the Sumy direction this is expressed in the pressing of defenses in the forest tracts and fighting near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In the Kharkiv direction — in the tightening of the ring around the encircled grouping and the advance toward the center of the cauldron. In the Slavyansk direction — in the holding of key positions near Zarechnoye and Yampol and heavy fighting near Rai-Aleksandrovka. In the Zaporozhye direction — in advance on a broad front and attempting to reach the rear of the Orekhov–Preobrazhenka grouping. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

The leader of the party “Debout la France,” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who is running for president of the country, stated that the European authorities’ rejection of Russian gas against the background of a rapid rise in fuel prices is comparable to economic and social suicide. “Gas prices continue to rise rapidly. This is a very concrete result of the European leaders’ refusal to establish peace in Ukraine and to lift the sanctions against Russia. This is economic and social suicide,” he wrote on the social network X.

As the politician noted, the price rise since the beginning of 2026 has amounted to 42.4% and continues to this day. “Meanwhile the economies of the United States and China are operating at full capacity, and gas there is four times cheaper,” he added.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Click to see full-size map.

• The Yemeni army (AnsarAllah) repelled Saudi coalition attacks near Bab al-Mandeb;
• The Yemeni army (AnsarAllah) captured Jabal Habashi district and and advanced towards Misrakh, south of Taiz city;
• The Saudi warplanes struck Sanaa airport;
• The Yemeni army (AnsarAllah) attacked Riyadh’s King Khalid airport with missiles.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

An attack on King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia’s capital injured several people and forced authorities to suspend operations on October 10, as separate reports emerged of a possible strike on a major oil and gas facility in the kingdom’s eastern oil-producing region.

Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority said operations at the Riyadh airport had been suspended while officials assessed the damage and verified the safety of the facility.

Meanwhile, a regional official told The Associated Press that a missile struck the complex housing Terminals 3 and 4, which serve domestic flights.

Witnesses reported an explosion inside the airport and injured people on the ground. More than a dozen ambulances were seen rushing to the facility, Reuters reported. A traveler told the news agency that something had flown across the sky before part of the ceiling near a departure gate collapsed.

The official casualty toll remained unclear. Saudi authorities said they were assessing the number of injured, while a source at a Riyadh hospital told AFP that dozens of people had been wounded, including at least five who were being treated in intensive care.

The suspension disrupted air travel across the kingdom. Flight-tracking services showed flights to Riyadh being canceled or diverted, while Kuwait Airways, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways canceled services to the Saudi capital.

The airport had already been targeted twice earlier in the week in attacks that killed four people and destroyed a Saudi airliner.

Yemen’s Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, have claimed responsibility for previous strikes on Saudi airports and other infrastructure but had not immediately commented on the latest incident.

The airport attack came amid reports of a possible strike on the Shedgum gas-processing plant in the Ghawar oil-field complex in eastern Saudi Arabia. The reports described smoke rising from the facility after an alleged missile attack.

The Israeli news outlet JFeed reported that the plant had been hit by ballistic missiles, citing satellite imagery and a reported spike in thermal activity. The open-source monitoring site Hamer Intel also reported smoke over the area following the suspected attack.

Despite these reports, Saudi authorities and state oil company Saudi Aramco have not yet publicly confirmed an attack on Shedgum.

Ghawar is one of the world’s largest conventional oil fields and a central part of Saudi Arabia’s petroleum industry. Shedgum is a gas-processing facility associated with the field, meaning damage there would not by itself establish that oil production across Ghawar had been interrupted.

The attacks came as fighting intensified between Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces and the Houthis, who have expanded their missile and drone campaign against Saudi targets in recent days.

The group warned international airlines to avoid Saudi airspace, describing it as a zone of military operations, after Saudi-backed forces launched an offensive to regain territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coast.

U.S. President Donald Trump said after the attack on King Khalid International Airport that Washington was considering whether to join Saudi military action against the Houthis.

“We may. We’re going to look at it,” he told reporters, according to Reuters.

Overall, Saudi Arabia appears to be defenseless in the face of the Houthis, who have succeeded to a large extent in restricting aviation over the kingdom. Despite Trump’s latest remarks, the U.S. is unlikely to take a more direct role against the group, as its forces in the region remain focused on Iran. Still, the U.S. could carry out a one-off attack to show support for Riyadh. This could, however, trigger an even harsher response by the Houthis.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on October 10 that a supertanker struck a naval mine while attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz along a route Tehran had not authorized.

In a statement, the IRGC Navy said the vessel had ignored warnings about unauthorized transit and warned that ships violating its rules would face further attacks.

“A massive fire awaits any violating oil tanker that seeks to disregard the security and regulations of the Strait of Hormuz,” the Corps warned.

The statement did not identify the tanker or give its precise location. However, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said a day earlier that a vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera in the United Arab Emirates.

In an advisory notice, the agency, run by the Royal Navy, said that the fire was extinguished and that authorities were investigating.

India’s shipping minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, identified the vessel as the Panama-flagged crude oil tanker MT GEM NO. 2 and said all 22 Indian crew members were safe after a drone strike while the tanker was anchored off Sharjah, according to The Indian Express.

Separately, the UAE National Guard confirmed that it had rescued 22 crew members from an oil tanker after receiving a report of a fire on board.

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued on October 10 but remained sharply below normal levels amid repeated attacks and Iranian threats against vessels using routes Iran considers unauthorized.

The vessel-tracking service Hormuz.now counted six commercial ships crossing in the preceding 24 hours, with a seven-day average of about 10 ships a day, compared with a pre-crisis baseline of nearly 85. The figures cover only vessels broadcasting their positions.

Meanwhile, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on October 6, the lowest number since July 23, followed by 10 on October 7, according to Reuters. That remained well below the more than 20 daily crossings recorded on October 4 and 5.

The strait normally carries a substantial share of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making the prolonged reduction in traffic a major concern for energy markets.

Recent days saw an escalation in strikes on vessels attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz without coordinating with Iran, which threatened to pursue vessels it considers in violation of its rules across the wider region.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Click to see full-size map.

• On October 9, clashes between protesters and security forces in Hasakah resulted in injuries to three Kurdish protesters and one security; officer
• On October 9, Syrian security forces arrested two ISIS suspects in the Houla area of Homs, and seized two IEDs;
• On October 10, gunmen attacked a customs patrol near the Izra Bridge on the Damascus-Daraa highway, wounding two officers;
• On October 10, Israeli forces advanced into western Rif Dimashq and established a checkpoint on the road between Arnah and Darbal.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) released two videos on October 10 showing attacks on Saudi-backed forces near the country’s southwestern coast and claiming the group had secured additional territory in Taiz province.

The first video, published by the Houthis’ military media, showed recent strikes with “Shawaz” first-person suicide quadcopters.

The strikes targeted military vehicles and gatherings of Saudi-backed fighters at several locations in the Kahbub Mountains and al-Waziyah district along the far southern end of Yemen’s southwestern coast.

A second video, released separately, showed Houthi fighters advancing in the districts of Sama, As Silw and al-Mawasit in Taiz.

The footage also showed groups of Saudi-backed fighters surrendering to the Houthis and laying down their weapons in line with a general amnesty announced the previous month by Mahdi al-Mashat, head of the Houthi-led Supreme Political Council.

The three districts lie in the rural south and southeast of Taiz city, on a front distinct from the fighting along the Red Sea coast. Their reported capture comes amid the Houthis’ wider advance around Taiz, where the group has managed to cut the city off from other government-held areas.

Al Jazeera reported on October 10 that the capture of al-Turbah by October 4 had severed the main road linking Taiz city with government-held territory.

The coastal footage appeared amid continued fighting over access to the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

Saudi-backed forces said on October 9 that they had retaken the strait’s surrounding coastal areas and Mayyun Island, which lies within the waterway. Ansar Allah military spokesman Yahya Saree, however, said the group had repelled an advance from Lahj province and claimed more than 22 armored vehicles had been destroyed.

All in all, the Houthis maintain the upper hand both in Bab al-Mandab and in Taiz. Saudi-backed forces appear to be taking heavy losses, and their chances of regaining the initiative are getting slimmer by the day.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Four Ukrainian citizens were arrested in Vienna this week on suspicion of spying, Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said on October 9.

Three of the four remained in custody, Karner said, declining to provide further details because the investigation was ongoing.

The newspaper Ukrainska Pravda said two of its journalists were among those detained. Editor-in-chief Sevgil Musaieva said investigative journalist Mykhailo Tkach was released after more than 12 hours in detention on October 8, but his communication devices had not been returned. She also said cameraman Yaroslav Bondarenko was injured during his detention. The other two Ukrainians still in custody were arrested three days earlier.

The Ukrainian Embassy in Vienna said it was awaiting an explanation from Austrian authorities about the arrests and their legal basis, according to Reuters.

The arrests come amid growing scrutiny of alleged covert operations involving Ukrainians across Europe, including investigations into sabotage and attacks linked to Kyiv’s intelligence services.

In July, German prosecutors indicted a Ukrainian national accused of helping coordinate the team that planted explosives on the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea in September 2022. The suspect, who was arrested in Italy last year, has denied involvement, Reuters reported.

Earlier in April, Serbian authorities found explosives near the Balkan Stream pipeline supplying Russian gas to Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused Ukraine of possible involvement, but Kyiv denied the allegation.

A separate investigation concerns a June 29 bombing in Monaco that seriously injured Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Yermolaiev and two members of his family.

Ukrainian authorities detained a military intelligence officer and a former law-enforcement officer over the subsequent killing of Anastasiia Berezovska, the woman suspected of planting the bomb.

Monaco’s prosecutor said the two men may also have been involved in planning the attack, according to The Associated Press.

In an interview with the BBC published on October 9, former security officer Vitalii Zhykovych alleged that senior Ukrainian military intelligence officials had authorized the operation. Monaco, a sovereign city-state, is not a member of the European Union.

The recent incidents suggests growing Ukrainian sabotage activity inside the European Union. The targets point to a possible motive. Austria and Hungary had both pushed back against widening sanctions on Russia before the recent plots. In the case of Yermolaiev, who is in disagreement with Kyiv, the motive also appears evident.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Russian jet-powered Geran-4 one-way attack drones reached Ukraine’s Lviv region for the first time on October 10, following earlier reported strikes in the Rivne and Volyn regions in August.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported early in the morning that a jet-powered drone was heading toward Lviv and the nearby town of Vynnyky, later warning that it was approaching Lviv airport. Lviv Mayor Andrii Sadovyi confirmed soon afterward that the drone had entered the city’s airspace.

The incident came amid a broader wave of Russian jet-powered drone attacks against western Ukraine. Geran-4 drones targeted not just Lviv, but also Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi and Ivano-Frankivsk regions from late October 9 overnight into October 10.

Russia disclosed the Geran-4’s range publicly on October 2, when a representative briefed President Vladimir Putin on the drone during a visit to the Chebarkulsky training ground in the Chelyabinsk region. The representative said the drone travels at 350 kilometers per hour, carries a 50-kilogram warhead and has a range of 750 to 800 kilometers.

Those figures place western Ukrainian targets within its declared operational reach. Yet there have been reports of strikes even beyond this range.

In August, an unidentified Russian jet-powered drone reportedly traveled about 900 kilometers from Crimea before reaching Dubno in the Rivne region.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence revealed earlier this week that Russia has begun to produce an updated version of the Geran-4.

The updated version replaces the Chinese Telefly turbojet engine with a Russian-produced equivalent and adds the Susanin electro-optical system, which compares onboard camera images with stored reference imagery to guide the drone along a designated route. It is also armed with a new shaped-charge warhead designed to cut through bridge structures and supports for overhead power lines.

The continued development of the Geran drone represents a growing threat to Ukrainian air defenses, which are struggling to cope with existing versions.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Illustrative image.

Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) are disrupting Saudi Arabia’s efforts to attract international investors and energy executives, with attacks on the kingdom’s airports and explicit threats against commercial aviation prompting airlines and businesses to reconsider travel ahead of two major conferences in Riyadh, the Financial Times reported on October 10.

The World Petroleum Council Energy Congress is scheduled to take place from October 11 to 15, followed by the Future Investment Initiative, known as “Davos in the Desert,” from October 26 to 29.

The gatherings are important showcases for Saudi Arabia’s efforts to attract foreign capital and establish itself as a global destination for business, tourism and investment under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 economic diversification program.

The Financial Times reported that companies are reconsidering the number of employees they will send to the events, with some exploring alternatives to air travel and others considering remote participation.

Italy’s energy minister has abandoned plans to attend the energy congress in person and will participate virtually. Organizers intend to proceed with the events, but the difficulties facing international participants have raised questions about attendance, particularly at the larger investment conference later this month.

The disruption follows an explicit warning from the Houthis, whose military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, declared on October 8 that Saudi airspace had become a theater of military operations and issued what he described as a final warning to international airlines to stop flying into the kingdom.

Notably, the warning exempted airspace over the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina, according to the group’s statement.

The Houthis have claimed responsibility for a series of missile attacks on Saudi airports in recent days. On October 9, Saudi aviation authorities confirmed that two attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh had killed three Saudi nationals and wounded several other people. A Saudia Airlines plane was also destroyed. Other aircraft were reportedly damaged.

The latest casualties brought the reported death toll from the recent airport attacks to six, including victims of earlier strikes on Riyadh and Abha.

The aviation threat has already produced consequences beyond the immediate damage. On October 9, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency expanded its advisory against operating in Saudi airspace, adding an area in the kingdom’s northwest after concluding that the recent attacks demonstrated the Houthis’ ability and intent to strike deeper inside Saudi territory.

The aviation risk-sharing organization OPSGROUP separately advised its members to avoid operations in Saudi Arabia, including using Saudi airports as alternative destinations during flights.

Airlines have responded with cancellations and suspensions affecting Riyadh and other Saudi cities. Lufthansa Group and several Indian carriers announced suspensions of flights to Riyadh, while Etihad Airways canceled services and flydubai extended cancellations affecting Riyadh, Yanbu and Abha.

Flight-tracking data showed 131 cancellations to and from Riyadh by early afternoon on October 9, following hundreds of cancellations the previous day, Reuters reported.

For Saudi Arabia, the implications reach beyond the immediate problems facing conference organizers. The kingdom has invested heavily in attracting international companies, financial institutions and visitors as it seeks to diversify its economy away from oil revenues.

The energy congress and the Future Investment Initiative offer opportunities to draw senior executives to Riyadh, cultivate investment commitments and demonstrate that the country can host major international gatherings.

The Houthi campaign is now testing that effort through both physical attacks and the threat of further strikes. Even without additional damage to airport infrastructure, warnings that commercial aircraft could be targeted give airlines and corporate security departments a reason to reconsider routes, staff deployments and attendance.

With the energy congress beginning on October 11 and the investment conference approaching later in the month, Saudi organizers face the immediate challenge of keeping international participants coming while the threat to aviation remains active.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• Houthis Advance in Taiz, Repel Bab al-Mandeb Attack (Videos)
• Saudi-Backed Forces Renew Bab al-Mandab Push Amid Fierce Houthi Resistance (Videos)

File image.

Ethiopian government forces have stepped up drone attacks as fighting spreads across Tigray, Amhara and neighboring regions, bringing renewed attention to Turkey’s growing role as a supplier of unmanned aerial systems to the war-torn country.

Reports and imagery point to the presence of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı drones, although publicly available evidence does not establish which models carried out the individual strikes in the latest offensive.

The latest escalation in Ethiopia has brought the drones into use against both Tigrayan fighters and forces identified as Eritrean.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, known as ACLED, reported that between 15 and 17 strikes hit Alamata in southern Tigray on September 22, damaging several schools and a hospital. Tigrayan authorities said the attacks killed 14 people and wounded 22, although the breakdown of casualties between civilians and combatants was unknown.

On September 27, ACLED recorded an Ethiopian army drone strike on Tigray TV, a regional broadcaster affiliated with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

The attacks continued into October. On October 7, ACLED reported that Ethiopian National Defense Force units had used drones to attack suspected Eritrean troops traveling by vehicle toward Idaga Hamus in Tigray. The group said further strikes targeted vehicles carrying troops and equipment as the troops withdrew from the Adigrat area on October 8. Witnesses reported destroyed military vehicles and explosions overnight.

The Turkish connection predates the current offensive. In October 2021, Reuters reported that Ethiopia was seeking to acquire Bayraktar TB2 armed drones from Turkish defense company Baykar, amid the previous war between federal forces and the Tigrayan leadership.

The Bayraktar TB2 has a 12-meter wingspan, a maximum takeoff weight of 700 kilograms and an endurance of more than 18 hours, allowing it to conduct surveillance, reconnaissance and precision strikes with guided munitions.

Click to see full-size image. (X)

Subsequent reporting documented the use of Turkish-made drones in Ethiopia. In August 2024, a senior Turkish government official confirmed that Turkey had authorized Ethiopia to use Turkish-made drones, following scrutiny of civilian deaths linked to earlier attacks.

The larger Bayraktar Akıncı has also been linked to Ethiopia’s military aviation infrastructure. Satellite imagery and open-source reporting have drawn attention to drones stationed at Bahir Dar Airport in the Amhara region, where military infrastructure has expanded.

The Bayraktar Akıncı is a twin-engine combat drone with a 20-meter wingspan, a payload capacity of 1,500 kilograms and an operational range of 6,000 kilometers, and it can carry guided bombs, air-to-ground missiles and air-to-air missiles while conducting intelligence and surveillance missions.

However, the presence of Turkish-made drones at the base does not establish that every drone there is operated by Ethiopia. In May 2026, defense publication Janes reported that Sudan’s military had identified a drone operating from Bahir Dar as belonging to the United Arab Emirates, illustrating the complications surrounding foreign-operated drones using Ethiopian facilities.

Click to see full-size image. (X/Planet Labs)

Another Turkish system has surfaced in more recent reports from the battlefield. Baykar unveiled the Sivrisinek publicly in May; the system was developed jointly with Pakistan. In early October, open-source footage circulated online appeared to show Ethiopian federal troops displaying a Baykar Sivrisinek loitering munition, also known as the YIHA-III, reportedly captured from Tigrayan forces. The reported capture has not independently established how the munition reached the Tigrayan side.

The Sivrisinek YIHA-III is a loitering munition with a 20-kilogram warhead, an endurance of more than eight hours in its extended-range configuration and AI-assisted target recognition, enabling it to search for targets and conduct precision attacks without requiring a runway.

The civilian toll from the renewed air campaign has heightened concerns about the use of drones in populated areas. Human Rights Watch has previously documented drone strikes that harmed civilians in Amhara, including attacks during the conflict with Fano militias.

In the current round of fighting, ACLED has recorded repeated drone attacks across Tigray, but the available reporting does not establish that Turkish-made drones were responsible for each incident. Still, it is clear that Turkey’s Baykar is emerging as one of the main beneficiaries of the conflict.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Click to see full-size image. (Russian Ministry of Defense)

In the Slavyansk direction, Ukrainian units in small groups are attempting to break through to the river near Yampol and slip into the Serebryansky forestry, while the situation in Krivaya Luka has been somewhat stabilised. In the Dobropolye direction, units of the 51st Army are developing the offensive in three parts of the town at once; Russian forces are advancing on a broad front along the Vesyoloye–Novotroitskoye line toward Andreyevka and are attempting to cut the Ukrainian grouping in Dobropolye into two parts. In the Sumy direction, assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the region with heavy fighting. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian units continue the destruction of the encircled forces in the northeast of the region; an attempt to break the encirclement ring by forces of the 475th Assault Regiment on “Kazak” armored vehicles has been repelled. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops have stabilized the situation north of Kupyansk; control over Kupyansk-Uzlovoy is reported to have been established, and clearing of the territory and evacuation of local residents are under way. NATO and the EU are unsuccessfully attempting to persuade Greece and Spain to transfer to Ukraine PAC-2 interceptors with expiring service life.

Slavyansk direction  

Ukrainian units in small groups continue to break through to the river near Yampol; attempts to slip into the Serebryansky forestry are also recorded. The situation in Krivaya Luka has been somewhat stabilized. The eastern part of the village remains under Russian units, while the western part is a grey zone. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to reach this village and from there further toward Kaleniki. However, given the complicated situation above the Seversky Donets River, the threat of a flanking strike against Russian positions remains, and the overall situation on the sector remains difficult.

Positional fighting is under way on the western outskirts of Rai-Aleksandrovka. Inside the village itself the situation is unchanged: new groups of Ukrainian units are being destroyed, yet several groups managed to slip in and dig in within the settlement. Fighting for Piskunovka continues. Approximately half of the village is under Russian units. Ukrainian units are counterattacking near Vasyutinskoye. Russian units thwarted an attempt by groups of Ukrainian units to enter the rear from the direction of Minkovka. They advanced westward, expanding the zone of control from Novomarkovo.

The Slavyansk direction remains tense: Ukrainian units in small groups are attempting to break through to the river near Yampol and slip into the Serebryansky forestry. The situation in Krivaya Luka has been stabilized — the eastern part of the village is under the control of Russian units. In the Krasny Liman direction Russian fighters are holding back the pressure along the Zherebets River.  

Dobropolye direction  

In Dobropolye units of the 51st Army are developing the offensive in three parts of the town at once. Drone operators are working against the territory of the Dobropolskaya mine. At the same time Russian forces continue to advance on a broad front along the Vesyoloye–Novotroitskoye line toward Andreyevka. From the south-east to the borders of Andreyevka approximately one kilometer remains.

In the area of Dobropolye Russian units are conducting a successful assault. The Ukrainian grouping has been taken into encirclement and is being cut into two parts. A fairly large amount of urban territory has already been captured. Ukrainian units are still present in the other half. The advance continues. Russian units have entered the central part of Dobropolye from the north-east and south-west. South of the town fighting is under way near Belitskoye, Svetloye and Krasnopodolye. The zone of control is expanding near Zolotoy Kolodets.

Ukrainian units are desperately attempting to break the encirclement ring through the north, via Novovodyanoye. They are attacking in the direction of Dobropolye. So far they have not succeeded. In Novovodyanoye, despite Ukrainian claims of full control, Russian positions exist. It is a layered situation. Stubborn fighting continues on the Zolotoy Kolodets line. An attack from two sides toward the Dobropolye cauldron is under way — through Novovodyanoye and through Zolotoy Kolodets toward Rubezhnoye.  

Sumy direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into the Sumy region with heavy fighting, supported by aviation and strike-drone crews. Ukrainian units have taken no active actions and are replenishing mechanized units with new recruits. Recruits trained as artillerymen have arrived from training grounds in the Sumy region. All of them, however, were sent into the infantry because of the catastrophic shortage of personnel on the positions.

In the Sumy direction Russian troops have officially announced the capture of Kiyanitsa. Previous gains here — Mogritsa, Malaya Rybitsa — according to some data were not always confirmed. Troops are nevertheless attempting to advance virtually along the entire line of contact. In Shostka district, assault groups of Russian units have advanced near Korenok.  

Kharkiv direction  

Russian units continue the destruction of the encircled Ukrainian forces in the northeast of Kharkiv region. Ukrainian units have not abandoned attempts to break the encirclement ring from the outside. In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops continue to advance near Tokarevka.

In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Ukrainian units made an attempt to break the encirclement from the outside with two assault groups of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment on “Kazak” armored fighting vehicles from the area of Veliky Burluk. They achieved no success and withdrew to their starting positions with losses. In the northern part of Kharkiv region very complicated fighting is under way. Both sides are attempting to attack. Russian troops are trying to finish clearing the cauldron near Varvarovka and Reznikovka. Ukrainian units are attempting to break through there with forces of the 475th Assault Regiment in order to relieve their own forces. There is hope of finishing this cauldron and stabilizing the front. Then, relying on it, to move toward Bolshoy Burluk — already in the late-autumn or winter campaign.  

Kupyansk direction  

In the zone of the “West” grouping the triumphant statements from the Kyiv side have ended. The situation for Ukrainian units is becoming worse. Russian units are gradually arriving — in addition to drone operators, infantry. It will be possible to capture part of the positions that were previously lost, including in Liman, where units continue to fight in the southern and central parts of the city.

In the Kupyansk direction Russian troops have stabilized the situation north of Kupyansk. Near Dvurechnaya Ukrainian units, despite the commitment of reserves, have achieved no success. Russian units are gradually finishing the clearance of Ukrainian positions on the eastern bank of the Oskol south of Kupyansk. Reports are arriving from the Kupyansk front of the establishment of control over Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.

Clearing of the territory and evacuation of local residents are now under way. Fighting continues for positions and communications along the Oskol. On the left bank of Kupyansk clashes persist near Kovsharovka and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Positional fighting also continues inside Kupyansk itself. Russian units have advanced up to two kilometers and captured new positions on the southern approaches to the Zarechnaya part of the city.  

Conclusion  

In the Slavyansk direction this is expressed in the stabilization of Krivaya Luka and fighting for Piskunovka while the threat of a flanking strike remains. In the Dobropolye direction — in consolidation in the central part of the town and attempts to cut the encircled grouping. In the Sumy direction — in advance near Kiyanitsa and Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction — in the final clearance of the cauldron near Varvarovka and Reznikovka. In the Kupyansk direction — in the stabilization of the front and the establishment of control over Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

NATO and the EU are unsuccessfully attempting to persuade Greece and Spain to transfer to Ukraine their stocks of PAC-2 interceptors with expiring service life, the Telegraph reported. “NATO and EU officials are trying to persuade Greece and Spain to hand over Patriot PAC-2 interceptors whose service life is expiring to Ukraine,” the publication stated. However, as is clarified, Athens and Madrid are refusing to provide the interceptors. According to the newspaper, Greece has at least 200 PAC-2 missiles with expiring service life. The number of such interceptors held by Spain is unknown, although earlier this year it had promised to transfer missiles to Kyiv.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) on October 9 completed taking control of Jabal Habashi district in Taiz province, expelling Saudi-backed forces as fighting continued across southwestern Yemen.

Taiz Today, a Houthi-aligned outlet, quoted a military source as saying the group had secured the entire district. The claim came amid continuing clashes in the surrounding mountains, where government-aligned forces reported Saudi strikes against Houthi positions in Jabal Habashi and nearby areas.

Houthi fighters were also reported to have entered al-Misrakh, the administrative center of the district of the same name, but Saudi-backed forces said they retook the town shortly afterward.

The fighting extended to al-Shariq, Wadi al-Ahmar, Wadi Hinna and al-Nawazil, while Houthi forces attempted to advance toward the Mufraq Jabal Habashi road junction, according to government-aligned reporting.

All in all, the Houthis had completed the encirclement of Taiz city, cutting its approaches, including the western route. Taiz Today reported that negotiations with the Islah party, the dominant force in the province, over a proposed peaceful handover had stalled over disagreements about heavy weapons and prisoners.

Separately, Al Jazeera reported Houthi advances in al-Maafir and al-Mawasit that increased pressure on the Taiz-Aden road and disrupted overland connections for government forces. It described control across several mountain fronts as unsettled.

On the western coast, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said earlier in the day that the group had repelled a second attempt by Saudi-backed forces to advance from Lahj province toward the southern approaches to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. He said the attackers were forced to retreat without making further territorial gains after Houthi forces used ballistic missiles, artillery and heavy weapons against their positions.

Houthi activists released video footage showing the group’s forces at their positions around the strait, confirming that the attack was repelled.

A source from the government-aligned Southern Giants told Agence France-Presse that fighting was continuing and that advances remained limited, acknowledging that the latest attack was very much a failure.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a vital international shipping route, making the competing claims of control significant for military operations along Yemen’s western coast.

All in all, the Houthis maintain the upper hand on all active fronts in southwestern Yemen. Saudi-backed forces seem incapable of regaining the initiative despite all the support they are receiving from the kingdom and its allies. This points to deep-rooted problems within the alliance.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Illustrative image. (Bureau 1440)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on October 8 that China was helping Russia develop an alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet system, as Moscow’s Rassvet network advances through testing and the presentation of subscriber terminals.

“They are making progress. They are passing this on to Russia,” Zelensky said.

The Ukrainian president’s remarks underscored Kyiv’s growing concern that Moscow could acquire advanced satellite communications capabilities.

Zelensky has already taken his concerns to U.S. President Donald Trump, asking him to impose sanctions on Russian and Chinese companies involved in Rassvet’s development, according to a recent Financial Times report. The request, raised during a meeting in New York in September, reflects Kyiv’s effort to prevent the Russian network from becoming a strategic asset for Moscow.

However, Washington has no straightforward way to stop the project outright. Sanctions would not automatically halt Russia’s domestic satellite program.

Zelensky’s appeals are unfolding as the project moves beyond development announcements and into public demonstrations of its capabilities.

Bureau 1440, the Russian company developing Rassvet, demonstrated a satellite video connection between Moscow and the southern Russian republic of Adygea on October 7. The call lasted about five minutes and used the company’s satellite network, showing that the system can support a live communications session.

At the same Moscow technology forum, Bureau 1440 presented three types of subscriber terminals for the network. One was identified as a serial-production device, while the company said its 1440.ULTRA terminal could support data transmission speeds of up to 700 megabits per second. The equipment is intended to connect users to the satellite constellation once the service becomes operational at scale.

Russia launched batches of Rassvet satellites in March and July, but the network has not yet reached full operational capability. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted in late September that the system was not yet operating effectively.

Zelensky’s repeated warnings and his appeal to Trump to block the Rassvet project point to growing alarm in Kyiv as Russia moves closer to establishing an independent satellite communications network.

With satellites already launched and the company testing connections and preparing user equipment, Zelensky faces the prospect that Russia could soon field a Starlink alternative that Kyiv may be unable to disrupt. His warnings about Chinese assistance suggest that Ukraine is increasingly concerned not only about Russia’s progress, but also about the possibility that outside support could accelerate it.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility on October 9 for setting an oil tanker ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to pursue vessels it considers in violation of its rules across the wider region.

The IRGC Navy said it targeted the engine room and propulsion system of the MV Sun Shine, a tanker belonging to the company Natwit, after the vessel attempted to use a route through the southern section of the strait that the IRGC described as unauthorized. The attack caused a fire on board.

In a statement, the IRGC warned that action against “violating” vessels would no longer be confined to the Strait of Hormuz.

The Corps said ships using routes it considers unauthorized would be pursued and “punished” anywhere in the region. Companies accused of cooperating with the United States would face sanctions, and all their vessels would be targeted, it added.

It blamed the United States military for the maritime incidents, accusing Washington of interfering in decisions by shipping and insurance companies and paying “large bribes” to secure their compliance.

“Direct responsibility for these incidents and the escalation of tensions in maritime transport in the region lies with the aggressive U.S. army,” the statement said.

An attack was reported later in the day on a commercial tanker about 13 nautical miles west of al-Jazira in the United Arab Emirates.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said the vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile, causing a major fire that was later extinguished.

Maritime trade publication Seatrade Maritime identified the ship as the Gem No. 2, a Panama-flagged very large crude carrier managed in Taiwan. Information about the crew’s condition and the extent of the damage had not been reported in the publication’s account.

The incidents followed two reported vessel emergencies on October 8. UKMTO said an oil tanker north of Qatari waters had been struck by several projectiles, causing casualties. Separately, maritime intelligence company Vanguard reported that a tanker had caught fire about 40 kilometers off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. Vanguard identified the vessel as probably the Dalkut, sailing under the Marshall Islands flag.

Tehran’s Friday prayer leader, Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Javad Ali-Akbari, said in his weekly sermon that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Iran’s conditions were fully met. He said Iran had established “seven conditions” and would decide its next steps once they were satisfied. He added that military readiness had improved, weaknesses had been addressed and Iran’s strategy had shifted from defense to offense.

Iran has said it controls the strait, will not permit military forces from hostile countries in the area and will respond “decisively” to any attempt to disrupt its management of the waterway.

Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command said on October 9 it had cleared the strait’s main shipping lanes, removed naval mines from principal transit routes and declared them open to vessels that do not violate American maritime sanctions against Iran. The command said thousands of commercial ships had passed through safely.

Actual traffic remained far below normal levels, however. The AIS-based tracking site Hormuz.now recorded eight commercial vessel crossings during the day, with 11 crossings in the preceding 24 hours. Its average for the previous seven days was 10.3 crossings daily, about 12% of the prewar average of 84.8.

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. At least 12 attacks, attempted attacks or harassment incidents targeting oil tankers and gas carriers were recorded in the strait from September 28 to October 5, the highest weekly total since the war began on February 28, according to media reports.

Iran is clearly still very much in control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the IRGC’s latest warning puts the few vessels that are managing to cross without coordinating with Tehran at increased risk.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces on October 9 again claimed to have captured the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait and nearby Mayyun Island.

A Yemeni military source told the German Press Agency (dpa) that the operation began before dawn with Saudi air support.

The source said the Southern Giants Brigades and Nation’s Shield forces seized the al-Ardi camp, Coast Guard observation posts and a range of high ground overlooking the strait.

Furthermore, the source claimed the forces had established full control over Mayyun Island, noting that clashes and clearing operations continued in the surrounding area.

The announcement marked the second time within days that Saudi-backed forces had claimed to capture the area. On October 5, the forces made a similar claim during Operation Yemen Dawn, but that announcement eventually proved to be false.

Responding to the latest claims, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said in a statement that the group’s forces had repelled a second attempted advance by Saudi-backed forces toward Bab al-Mandab.

Saudi-backed forces had tried to move toward the waterway from Lahj province but had failed to advance, according to the spokesman.

Saree said Houthi forces struck the advancing troops with ballistic missiles, artillery and heavy weapons. He claimed the attacks destroyed more than 22 armored vehicles and killed or wounded dozens of fighters, including several commanders.

The spokesman added that more than 30 ambulances had arrived in Aden transporting dead and wounded personnel from the Saudi-backed forces.

Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a key shipping route linking the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. Mayyun Island lies within the strait, making control of the island and surrounding coastline strategically important to the opposing forces.

The latest attempted advance by Saudi-backed forces shows that the kingdom remains focused on recapturing Bab al-Mandab, despite the deteriorating situation of its allies in Taiz, where they are fully besieged by the Houthis. The fall of Taiz could, however, pose a serious problem for Saudi-backed forces, as it would allow the Houthis to launch an attack toward the port city of Aden, potentially trapping all troops amassed near Bab al-Mandab.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

South Korea conducted the first test launch of its domestically developed hypersonic glide vehicle on October 8, with President Lee Jae Myung observing the event at the Agency for Defense Development’s Anheung Comprehensive Test Site in South Chungcheong Province.

The presidential office later released photographs of the launch and the missile striking its target, providing a visual record of the test.

According to a written briefing by presidential chief spokesperson Kang Yu-jung, the vehicle reached its planned altitude using a booster before separating and descending to a lower altitude. It then performed irregular maneuvers, changing direction vertically and horizontally before accurately striking its designated target.

The test was intended to evaluate heat-resistant materials designed for extreme temperatures, guidance and control systems, and the ability to maneuver at low altitudes under hypersonic flight conditions.

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

The government did not disclose the missile’s speed, flight range, altitude or flight duration. The weapon remains under development, with no public timetable announced for operational deployment.

Unlike South Korea’s separate HyCore program, which is developing a scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missile, the hypersonic glide vehicle relies on a booster to reach the required speed and altitude before continuing its flight without propulsion.

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

Click to see full-size image. (Office of the President of the Republic of Korea)

Lee called for the system’s development and deployment to be accelerated, pledging government support for advanced weapons programs.

After the test, Lee wrote on X that the missile embodied South Korea’s determination to defend itself using its own technology and capabilities.

“Self-reliant defense is not just a slogan — it must be proven through technology and capability,” the president wrote.

The South Korean president later inspected the military’s Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile, designed to destroy hardened underground targets.

The launch followed a North Korean intermediate-range missile test on October 3, which was supervised by leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korean state media said the missile struck a target about 1,000 kilometers away, while South Korea assessed that it had traveled more than 700 kilometers and Japan estimated a flight distance of about 680 kilometers.

Pyongyang described its launch as part of its hypersonic weapons program, placing the two Koreas’ competing development efforts in sharper focus.

Tensions had already risen after a land mine explosion inside the Demilitarized Zone on September 21 injured three South Korean soldiers. South Korea’s military and the United Nations Command attributed the incident to mines planted by North Korean troops, an allegation Pyongyang denied.

Against that backdrop, Lee’s public appearance at the latest test underscored his administration’s emphasis on strengthening South Korea’s domestically developed weapons capabilities.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

Ethiopia accused Eritrea of an “all-out invasion” on October 9, reporting that Eritrean troops had advanced deep into its territory as fighting that began in the northern Tigray region spread into neighboring Amhara and Afar.

The allegations came after Ethiopian government forces recaptured the regional capital, Mekelle, in a counteroffensive that failed to end the fighting.

Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos made the accusation in a letter to the United Nations and France’s foreign minister, saying Eritrean forces had advanced as far as 60 kilometers into Ethiopian territory.

Reuters reported further explosions near Adigrat, in northern Tigray, and said suspected Ethiopian drone strikes had targeted Eritrean troops withdrawing from positions near the border.

Eritrea rejected the allegations, describing them as an attempt by Ethiopia to justify aggression. The reported incursion has not been independently confirmed, but it threatens to turn Ethiopia’s renewed internal conflict into a direct confrontation between the neighboring countries.

The latest escalation began on September 23, nearly four years after the November 2022 Pretoria agreement ended a two-year war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). That conflict killed hundreds of thousands of people and left unresolved disputes over regional authority, security arrangements and the return of displaced residents.

The renewed fighting followed the formation on September 20 of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed opposition groups seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The alliance brought together the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement, former adversaries during the previous war, alongside other regional groups that accuse the government of concentrating power in Addis Ababa and marginalizing Ethiopia’s regions.

Whether the groups can sustain coordinated operations remains uncertain because of their geographic separation and longstanding political and territorial differences.

Tensions in Tigray had already intensified over competing claims to regional authority. In May, the TPLF restored the region’s prewar council and elected its chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, as regional president, challenging the federal government’s recognition of an interim administration led by Tadesse Werede.

Both sides accused each other of violating the Pretoria agreement, while Tigrayan authorities repeatedly alleged that federal forces had conducted drone attacks.

On September 23, Tigrayan forces seized the airports in Mekelle, Aksum and Shire, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to all three cities.

The Tigray regional government said federal forces had attacked the region with drones and heavy artillery the previous day, describing its actions as defensive.

Getachew Reda, a former Tigrayan leader serving as an adviser to Abiy, accused the TPLF of opening additional fronts in Amhara and Afar. The UN and African Union called for restraint and warned that the renewed fighting threatened the 2022 peace agreement.

The initial clashes spread across several areas. In western Tigray, federal and Tigrayan forces fought near the Tekeze River, including around May Gaba and Tselimoy. In Amhara, fighting erupted along the Kobo-Tumuga axis and in the Wag Hemra and North Wello zones, where Tigrayan fighters and Fano forces confronted federal troops and their allies.

Further east, Tigrayan fighters and the Afar-based Ugugomo group fought government-aligned forces in Afar’s Kelbati Rasu zone.

By September 25, flights to Lalibela in Amhara had been suspended as fighting approached the town. Internet disruptions and road closures further restricted communications and movement.

Government forces began recovering territory within days. They retook Sekota in Amhara on September 27 after several days of fighting involving Tigrayan and Fano forces. A drone strike hit the TPLF-affiliated Tigrai TV station in Mekelle that day, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which monitors political violence.

Click to see full-size image.

Suspected opposition-linked drone attacks subsequently targeted a fuel depot at Kombolcha Airport on September 28 and an Ethiopian Air Force base in Bahir Dar on September 29, extending the fighting to military and logistical facilities beyond the main front.

Federal forces captured Alamata in southern Tigray on September 29, opening a route toward Mekelle, and regained Raya Bala on September 30.

Tigrayan forces and Ugugomo fighters had meanwhile held Erebti in Afar and advanced toward Afdeera, raising concerns about disruption to the supply corridor connecting landlocked Ethiopia with the port of Djibouti. Government forces, supported by the Tigray Peace Force, retook Abala, Erebti and Megale in Afar on October 1.

The fighting inflicted a growing toll on civilians and humanitarian operations. Doctors Without Borders reported that hospitals in southern and northwestern Tigray had received more than 420 and 300 patients, respectively, for war-related injuries between September 22 and 25.

The International Committee of the Red Cross evacuated about 161 people from conflict areas to Semera in Afar, including airline employees, federal police assigned to guard regional airports and their families.

On September 30, 19 humanitarian personnel who had been trapped in Tigray reached neighboring Amhara by road after days of disrupted transport and unreliable communications. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk separately expressed alarm over reports of civilian casualties and forced recruitment by the TPLF, including children.

The conflict also intensified Ethiopia’s dispute with Eritrea. On October 1, Ethiopia ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave the country and closed its embassy in Asmara, accusing the Eritrean government of hostility and supporting the opposition alliance.

Addis Ababa has separately accused Sudan and Egypt of backing the coalition, allegations all three countries have denied. Eritrea announced that it was severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.

The dispute is unfolding against a longer-running disagreement over access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia became landlocked when Eritrea gained independence in 1993, and Abiy has repeatedly pressed for access to the sea. Eritrea has expressed concern over Ethiopian ambitions involving its ports.

As government forces advanced toward Mekelle, the TPLF’s position weakened. On October 2, ACLED reported that Tigrayan forces had taken Werede, head of the interim regional administration, and two other senior officials to undisclosed locations. Federal forces and their allies recaptured Mekelle’s airport the following day after encircling the city.

The TPLF announced its withdrawal from the regional capital, saying the regional administration would temporarily operate elsewhere. Government-aligned fighters entered Mekelle on October 4, giving the federal government control of the city.

Telecommunications and internet service resumed, but government offices remained closed and residents faced shortages of cash and essential goods.

The loss of Mekelle did not end the fighting. Airstrikes overnight into October 5 killed at least 17 people in Adwa and Sheraro, according to a humanitarian bulletin cited by Reuters. The bulletin did not identify who carried out the attacks.

Fighting continued near the Tekeze River, while federal drone strikes targeted areas in central Tigray where TPLF officials were believed to be sheltering.

Click to see full-size map. (Telegram\rnintel)

On October 7, government forces and their allies regained Wukro, Hagere Selam and Agula, while clashes were reported again near Tselimoy in northwestern Tigray.

The same day, ACLED reported that Eritrean troops had crossed into Tigray through Zalambessa and moved toward Adigrat and Idaga Hamus. The group said suspected Ethiopian military drones subsequently struck Eritrean forces and military vehicles near Idaga Hamus and Qerse Ber.

The Associated Press said it could not independently verify the reported troop movements. Witnesses and sources cited by ACLED identified the soldiers as Eritrean through their uniforms, vehicles and license plates.

Ethiopia’s accusation on October 9 marked the most serious reported extension of the conflict beyond its internal fronts. With federal forces holding Mekelle but fighting continuing across northern Tigray, the unresolved reports of Eritrean troop movements have added a new source of uncertainty to a war already challenging the country’s postwar settlement and regional stability.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

Click to see full-size image.

A photo that surfaced online on October 9 appears to show for the first time a Russian FAB-500T aerial bomb fitted with a turbojet engine mounted beneath a Su-34 fighter bomber, offering a clearer view of the propulsion configuration associated with the UMPB-5R long-range guidance kit.

The image shows a turbojet attached to the rear of the bomb, with its air intake visible. The munition does not appear to be fully equipped with the UMPB-5R kit, which is installed after the bomb and engine have been fitted.

The range of the UMPB-5R-equipped FAB-500T is reported to be 150 to 200 kilometers. The extended range is attributed to the combination of turbojet propulsion, an improved aerodynamic shape and an updated guidance system.

Reports about the UMPB-5R first emerged in October 2025, after Ukrainian authorities reported the use of a new jet-powered guided bomb. Photos of recovered wreckage appeared to show a copy of the Chinese-made Swiwin SW800Pro-Y engine, but the images depicted only fragments.

The turbojet configuration is intended to allow Russian warplanes to launch the weapons from greater distances, keeping them farther from Ukrainian air defenses.

The Russian Aerospace Forces has increasingly relied on guided aerial bombs launched by Su-34 fighter bombers to strike military positions and infrastructure across Ukraine.

Although the latest photo provides a clearer view of the engine-equipped configuration, it does not establish the weapon’s actual operational range or confirm how extensively the version has entered combat use. In any case, the UMPB-5R yet another threat to Ukraine, whose air defenses are already struggling to cope with ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

In the Dobropolye direction, Russian assault groups have consolidated in the southern part of the town, infiltrating from the direction of the village of Dobropolye and Annivka, while Ukrainian units acknowledge fighting within the city limits. In the Sumy direction, Russian units of the “North” grouping have advanced 400 meters through tree lines near Kiyanitsa and Khoten and are fighting in the forest tract near Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian assault groups are expanding the zone of control with heavy fighting; they have taken Beryozki, Potikhonovo, Komarovo, the farms near Shabelnoye and the greater part of Malaya Volchya, and have advanced near Olkhovatka. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian troops are advancing in the areas of Yegorovka and Krasny Rodnik; Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino are returning under control, and fighting continues for Orekhov. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet Ukrainian officials on Friday to discuss a new proposal for ending the conflict.

Dobropolye direction  

Movement of small groups of Russian units has been recorded in the southern and eastern parts of the town. Russian units are infiltrating the town both from the direction of the village of Dobropolye and from neighbouring Annivka. Further south, fighting continues in the Krasnopodolye–Chernigovka–Vodyanskoye triangle. On the southern flank, as before, local clashes are under way in the vicinity of Mirnoye and Gulevo. In the vicinity of Sergeyevka and Molodetskoye the situation has remained relatively static for the past several months.

While Ukrainian formations are distracted by fighting in Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka and near Liman, Russian units are seizing the moment and attempting to consolidate in the center of Dobropolye as quickly as possible. This will make it possible to form the base of a “pincer” for a broader envelopment of the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration from the west. Without stabilization of the situation on the northern flank, however, actions in Dobropolye are virtually meaningless.

Marines have entered Dobropolye, where they are fighting in the center of the town and expanding control of the territory. From the direction of Maloye Dobropolye paratroopers are advancing toward Svyatogorovka; an offensive is also under way toward the south of the town of Dobropolye. In the area of Verovka and Raksha Russian troops have managed to advance along the gully. Further north, near Zolotoy Kolodets, fighters of Russian units are delivering fire against positions and groups of Ukrainian forces near the village of Novovodyanoye. Consolidation groups also continue to clear the territory from the mine near Belitskoye as far as Matyashevo, where the Ukrainian side still has scattered groups serving as observation posts.  

Sumy direction  

Russian units of the “North” grouping are increasing the intensity of strikes against Ukrainian positions on all sectors in Sumy direction, supporting the advance of assault groups. The Ukrainian side is actively strengthening defenses on secondary lines.

In Sumy district Russian assault troops have advanced through tree lines near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. Overall progress reached up to 400 meters. In Shostka district, assault groups of Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting in the forest tract near Korenok. The Russian army is advancing near the border with the Kursk region. The offensive is under way near the Sumy village of Korenok. Assault units of the “North” grouping are also fighting near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In connection with the successes of Russian units, Kyiv is forced to transfer additional forces to the Sumy region.  

Kharkiv direction  

In the Liptsy direction fierce fighting is under way near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units continue the destruction of the encircled Ukrainian forces in the “Volchansk cauldron,” employing all available means of fire. Russian assault troops have advanced near Nefyodovka, Sosnovy Bor, Reznikovo and Kupino. From the outer side of the encirclement there is progress near Annopolye.

Over the past week Russian units have noticeably advanced near Olkhovatka and have continued to consolidate and expand control in the cauldron north of Veliky Burluk. The Ukrainian side is counterattacking unsuccessfully and attempting to break out. Russian drones are effectively disrupting the logistics of Ukrainian forces near Veliky Burluk, destroying equipment and personnel. From the south and east Russian units have taken control of Beryozki, Potikhonovo and Komarovo, and from the north they have taken the farms near Shabelnoye and the greater part of Malaya Volchya.

In the area of Volchansk the situation remains dynamic. The Ukrainian side made an attempt at a counterattack and managed to enter Grafskoye. Ukrainian units do not have full control of the village: intensive fighting is currently under way in part of the settlement, and sabotage and reconnaissance groups are actively operating on both sides. Russian units are slowly but steadily shifting the front southward near Kazachya Lopan. Having taken Novaya Kazachya, Russian units are clearing the village. In addition, fighting continues near Turovo and inside Tokarevka, where Russian fighters have consolidated part of the territory. 

Zaporozhye direction  

In the Orekhov direction difficulties are mounting for the Ukrainian side. The 35th Army continues to advance near Yegorovka and Krasny Rodnik. The 5th Army is also restoring the situation. Without supply, Vozdvizhevka may soon be fully captured.

Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino are returning under the control of Russian units. Fighting is still under way for the latter; the Ukrainian side is attempting to counterattack, but overall the crisis in this sector has been overcome. There are also successes south of Lyubitskoye, in the zone of the 5th Army. Fighting for Orekhov itself is proceeding methodically. Ukrainian units are gradually being driven out of the northern and western parts of the city. Russian units are already overhanging Orekhov not only from the north-east but also from the north. All the preconditions exist for the 5th Army to enter the rear of the Ukrainian defensive line.

A little further west, also in the “Dnepr” zone, an offensive is under way on a broad front. Fighting is being conducted for Primorskoye and the northern outskirts of Stepnogorsk. Clearing operations are under way in Lukyanovka, Novoyakovlevka and Yurkovka. The task is clear: in parallel with the capturing of Orekhov, to reach the Konka River in its lower course and attempt to secure bridgeheads on the northern bank while the foliage still provides cover.  

Conclusion  

In the Dobropolye direction this is expressed in consolidation in the southern part of the town and attempts to form a base for the envelopment of the agglomeration from the west. In the Sumy direction — in advances through forest tracts and pressure on the defenses near Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In the Kharkiv direction — in the expansion of the zone of control and the tightening of the ring around the “Volchansk cauldron.” In the Zaporozhye direction — in the envelopment of Orekhov and the advance to the Konka River. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will meet Ukrainian representatives on Friday to discuss a new proposal for ending the Ukrainian conflict. According to NewsNation journalist Kellie Meyer, the U.S. special envoys will discuss “a new comprehensive proposal covering all aspects of the conflict and aimed at ending the war.” National security advisers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as well as representatives of the European Union and NATO, will take part in the meeting.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

File image.

The Houthis (Ansar Allah) released footage on October 8 showing their forces driving Saudi-backed forces from al-Shamayatayn district in the southwestern Yemeni province of Taiz.

The footage include scenes from the capture of al-Turbah, the district’s main city. The footage showed Houthi fighters moving through positions and areas they said had been abandoned by the Saudi-backed forces. It also shows several vehicles and loads of weapons captured by the group.

The release came as the Houthis reported further gains in Jabal Habashi, west of Taiz. Pro-Houthi Yemeni media said the group had expelled government troops from the highest peaks of the mountain, including Najd al-Oud and al-Anaqib, adding to their gains across the province.

Separately, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the group had shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akıncı acombat drone over Taiz while it was carrying out what he described as hostile operations. He said the drone was brought down with an “appropriate weapon.”

The developments show growing Houthi pressure on the western and southern approaches to Taiz, even as Saudi-backed forces continue efforts to reverse earlier territorial losses.

Click to see full-size map. (Islamic World News)

Meanwhile, the Saudi-backed counterattack toward Bab al-Mandab meanwhile remains stalled. The strategic waterway remains under the control of the Houthis.

All in all, the Houthis maintain the upper hand on all fronts in Taiz. The two main objectives for the group now are likely to reach Taiz city, which is already under a tight siege, as well as to restore control over the few positions it lost near Bab al-Mandab, most notable of which is Dhubab’s airstrip. Fighting could go on for weeks, or even months.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence

NOW hosted at southfront.press

Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.

The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation

Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com

SOUTHFRONT.PRESS

MORE ON THIS TOPIC: