There are two elements of the Senate race in Maine that truly stand out on the ground. One is that this is a small state, at least in terms of population. The other is that Susan Collins has been a senator here for three decades. The upshot is that almost everyone I've met here has met her.

Philip, a lifelong Mainer in his 70s from Bangor, told me in an accent straight out of "Murder, She Wrote": "It would be stupid, in my opinion, not to vote for Susan, she's chairman of the appropriations committee, and she's brought a lot of money to the state," adding, "we've got new fire stations in every little town you can think of."

The appreciation for Collins among ordinary Mainers represents the daunting uphill battle Democrat Troy Jackson faces in a race where polls give him a slight lead, but the word on the street has him dead in the water.

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Speaking of fire stations, I met Andy and Hank, both firefighters, at Seasons restaurant in Bangor. And just like Philip, they can't really see Collins going down.

"We've all met her," Andy said of "Susan," not "Collins," adding, "She's an institution in Maine, I can't believe that Jackson can beat her."

Hank was hardly alone. Everyone I spoke to at Seasons seemed to agree, even the Democrats, who have a unique affection for Collins. As the burly Hank put it, "I'll believe she loses when I see it."

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In fairness, while Collins may be the Tom Brady of New England politics, even he lost twice to Eli Manning in the Super Bowl. So Jackson does have a chance to unseat the 73-year-old stalwart of the Senate.

John and Jeff, two voters I spoke with, are hoping and voting for just that. Jeff told me his top issue this election is ICE, saying, "We shouldn't have federal troops in every city … the Portland police should be able to handle things without having immigration backing them up."

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John went a bit further. When asked about the riots in France, he told Fox News Digital, "We should probably start rioting more in America, to be honest," but then hedged a bit with, "I would say, not riot. Protest."

I met Paul at the bar of the Hollywood Casino in Bangor. He and the bartender, both in their early 70s, knew each other from the town where they grew up, "up north." Frankly, it seems like everyone in Maine knows everyone.

Paul lives in South Carolina now, making him a bit of a two-for-one for this columnist. He told me he thinks the GOP will hold the Senate seat in the Palmetto State and that Maine will "come around for Susan like it always does," adding, "She has a house right up the road."

The word that kept resounding in my mind as I wandered the dusty back alleys of Bangor and marveled at the sea of colors clinging to the leaves along the dusky Penobscot River was "Susan." Almost everyone I talked to called her by her first name, a level of familiarity I have rarely encountered while covering a political race.

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The inescapable reality of this Senate campaign in Maine is that many Mainers under 40 have no memory of a time when "Susan" was not their senator. And to break that streak would require a call to arms that Troy Jackson just can't seem to muster.

Among the kindest words I heard about Jackson in Bangor were those of a woman in the antiques emporium on Main Street who said, "Somebody had to run."

Maine voter Wendy told Fox News Digital of Jackson, "He was a last-ditch effort," adding that she hopes Collins wins.

One word I didn't hear much in Maine, and this is a problem for Jackson, is "Trump." Almost everyone I spoke with sees Collins as independent of the president, who, after all, would serve only two years of the six-year term she is running for.

At Reagan National Airport on Tuesday, I bumped into former U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, himself the kind of institution in my home, the Mountain State, that Collins is in Maine. He was on his way to campaign for her.

The message of Manchin's mission was clear: a former Democrat, a centrist, a guy who can get things done with both sides, but also very much a former senator who could not survive the purity tests of the modern, far-left Democratic Party.

For Collins' part, Republicans across the country, especially in Maine and even in the White House, are willing to look past her centrism and just be thankful a Republican has a shot in a state like Maine.

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But let's be honest: Polls or no polls, a Collins loss would be an absolute shocker in Maine, and one that this column sees no evidence is in the works.

Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.

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A Fox News survey of Maine likely voters finds that mood weighs on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, as 53% are concerned she votes with Trump too much. By contrast, 46% are concerned Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is too liberal.

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Despite those views, the horse race shows the candidates tied, with Jackson and Collins at 49% apiece. All survey interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.

Collins, who first won her seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. She’s the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 (by 7 points). In 2020, Collins won by nearly 9 points.

Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate. When voters are asked about control of the U.S. Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led Senate vs. 45% who want the Republicans to remain in charge. While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led chamber, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.

Collins will need to overcome the energy on the left, as far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group. He’s up by 4 points among those who say they are "certain" to vote, and also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40 points. On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they favor Collins by 12 points.

"Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage," says Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line."

Views of the president’s performance are a problem for GOP candidates in Maine. Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.

The candidates’ personal favorability ratings are both underwater. Views of Jackson are negative by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and by 4 points for Collins (47%-51%).

Partisan vote choice varies distinctly across key groups. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those ages 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4.

The sharpest divide is education: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16.

Collins is ahead among those living in rural areas by 7 points, while Jackson is the pick of the smaller number of suburban voters by 18 points.

For comparison, in 2020, Collins won both the voters living in rural areas and those without a college degree by 18 points each.

"Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception," Shaw said. "GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas."

Party loyalty is roughly even as 9 in 10 of each candidate’s party faithful back them, and the small subgroup of independents favors Collins by 13 points. Both Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) supporters have a high degree of vote certainty. 

In Maine’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%.

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Unlike Jackson, whose coalition backs Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defect), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) peel off to either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).

Conducted October 16-20, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,689 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (226) and cellphones (1,035) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (428). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. 

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.