• Gen Zers are much less likely to have at least one kid than older generations at the same age.
• Not wanting kids, affordability problems, and medical challenges are plausible reasons.
• Having at least three kids is becoming less common across income percentiles, except in the top 1%.

Birth rates in the US have been falling for decades, but there's been an especially large drop in the likelihood of Gen Zers in their 20s having a kid compared with their older peers at the same age.

For 26-year-old Gen Zers, the likelihood of having at least one kid was 26%, down from 47% for millennials, 50% for Gen X, and 46% for boomers at that age. There were also differences between Gen Z and older generations in the probability of wanting another kid.

That's based on an analysis by a group of researchers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Julie Hotchkiss, a research economist at the Atlanta Fed, told Business Insider the analysis controls for education, partnership status, and some health conditions. The analysis uses National Survey of Family Growth data up to 2023.

From affordability challenges to concerns about the future, there are several likely reasons behind the lower probabilities. Hotchkiss said that a lower desire to have kids is one explanation.

Gen Zer Brooklen Farley said in an as-told-to Business Insider essay in 2023 that she decided during college she didn't want to have kids. Farley is worried about issues like the economy and climate crisis.

"Many people call us Zoomers, but honestly, a lot of us are doomers: We feel pessimistic about the future and don't want to subject our children to it," she said.

The research also notes that there's been a rise in medical challenges related to having kids. The researchers looked at impaired fecundity, or trouble becoming pregnant or carrying to term. The average probability of impaired fecundity at 26 was 18% for Gen Z compared to 10% for boomers at that age. The probabilities are higher for older ages — the likelihood for 40-year-old millennials was about 30%, higher than the 26% for Gen Xers at that age.

"If we want to talk about birth rates, we can't just talk about preferences," Hotchkiss said. "It's not just that darned younger generation not wanting, just being selfish and not wanting to have children. There's also really a very real medical issue that needs to be addressed."

Another problem is all the financial costs that come with being a parent. LendingTree found the cost of raising a kid for over 18 years adds up to $303,418 after tax exemptions and credits, or about $17,000 a year.

Affordability issues aren't just a Gen Z problem. Surrounded by a large family growing up, millennial Lizzie Lawson said in a Business Insider essay that she assumed she would also have a large family one day.

"When I was a kid in the early 2000s, my dad was an electrician and sole provider for our growing family of eight," Lawson said in a Business Insider essay, adding that her family got by with the help of coupon cutting and hand-me-downs. "Money was tight, but we also owned a house in a safe suburb, and my parents sent six kids to Catholic school from K-8."

Lawson, a college instructor whose husband is a physical therapist with $100,000 in student loans, said the economy is different from the one she grew up in.

"We can't afford to have one of us stay at home, and there aren't enough coupons in the world to cover the rising cost of day care," she said.

Having large families is rarer than in the past

Michael Konczal, vice president of policy and research at the Economic Security Project, said in his newsletter that across income percentiles, families with at least three kids have become less common since the 90s, except at the top 1%.

"A third kid isn't new for them; what's new is that it has become rarer for everyone else," he said. "Compared with the 1990s, families with three or more kids became less common overall and among the rest of the top 10%. The top 1%'s estimated share barely changed, though the uncertainty is substantial. Maybe all the stresses that made childbearing more difficult over the past 30 years just bounced right off the 1%?"

The US fertility rate has cooled to 1.6 births per woman, below the 2.1 replacement rate, which Hotchkiss said would translate to slower population growth. The Congressional Budget Office projects that just a few years from now, the number of births in the US could fall below the number of deaths, which could have implications in future decades.

"Over time, the negative net contribution of births and deaths increasingly offsets the positive contribution of net immigration, until population growth slows to zero in 2056. The population is projected to shrink thereafter," the CBO said.

After 20 years of balancing her corporate leadership roles with motherhood, Trisha Daab was ready for a break.

"Life had felt like sprinting a marathon for as long as I could remember," Daab, 47, told Business Insider. "I had no idea how tired I was until I stopped working."

In her year off, she tap danced, volunteered at a food bank, traveled to Disneyland and Alaska, and spent more time with her kids. By the end, she had decided she couldn't go back to her old life.

"My job often demanded that it came first — never-ending to-do lists, urgent emails, travel, and always chasing the next promotion," Daab, who's now a travel writer and substitute teacher, said. "Stepping away helped me realize my priorities had shifted."

Now in their 30s and 40s, many millennial women are skeptical of corporate and instead becoming business owners, content creators, and mothers, prioritizing more flexible work schedules. Instead of striving to get to the top, they're inverting Sheryl Sandberg's mantra of the 2010s — and leaning out.

Sandberg, Meta's former COO, told Business Insider that the corporate exodus is due to women feeling undervalued at work.

"This is not the women who are saying, 'I don't want to do it,'" Sandberg, 57, said. "It's the women saying, 'I don't want to do it because I'm not wanted, I'm not getting the same opportunities and the same support, and I face an unfair burden at home.'"

Even Lean In, the organization founded by Sandberg and named after her 2013 bestselling book, is noticing a recent shift in women's ambitions in the workforce.

According to the organization's 2025 Women in the Workplace report, published in December 2025, which surveyed 9,500 US employees across 124 organizations, women were less likely to say they wanted a promotion compared to men. This was true when filtered to include only millennials, who made up roughly one-third of participants.

When asked why, over 28% of millennial women said "personal obligations" made it hard for them to take on more — compared to 17% of millennial men.

Annie Wright, a licensed psychotherapist who works with Silicon Valley leaders, has also observed more of her millennial female patients shifting their ideas about what constitutes a fulfilling career.

"I'm watching them make more person-centered choices than necessarily career-only-driven choices," she told Business Insider. "I don't think many millennial women are becoming less ambitious. I think they're just becoming less willing to confuse ambition with self-erasure."

The rise and fall of the have-it-all girlboss

Let's, for a moment, remember what is now referred to as the "girlboss era" of the 2010s.

It was a time of She-E-O-led startups, of crushed velvet sofas and the words "I Want It All" aglow in cursive neon lettering. Of earnest enjoyment of "Fight Song" and T-shirts with earnest phrases like "feminist" and "woman up."

Of a future that was female, tinged millennial pink — until a series of public reckonings punctured the fantasy. Leaders of several companies stepped down amid allegations of toxic workplace cultures, exposing the facade of the girlboss promise.

Then came the remote work culture of 2020. Suddenly, many women had time to breathe, whether that meant not rushing to day care pickup, having more time to work out or see friends, or simply not being "on" all the time.

For some, the slowly creeping requirement to return to the office dealt the final blow.

Misty Heggeness, a professor at the University of Kansas specializing in gender economics, described the influx of new RTO policies by some companies as having a "chilling effect."

"That does disproportionately disadvantage women in general," Heggeness told Business Insider, "just because women are more likely to carry an invisible load of work within families."

The working mom paradox

After the birth of her first child, Kendra Rothermel switched from full-time to part-time work as an office manager while her husband remained at his full-time job. "As we grew our family, it made sense for me to have a more flexible schedule," Rothermel, 34, told Business Insider.

When she had her third baby, his clubfoot diagnosis meant frequent orthopedic appointments. Even part-time work wasn't flexible enough, so she eventually started her own venture helping small businesses with operations and marketing.

Rothermel said she was partly inspired by watching other working moms do the same.

A recent analysis of job-market data by Matthew Nestler, a senior economist at KPMG, found that labor force participation between December 2023 and May 2026 decreased among college-educated women with children under 5. Meanwhile, participation increased for women without children and most groups of men, including fathers.

Because millennials are generally having kids later than previous generations did, Heggeness said parents, moms in particular, are more likely to be parenting young children just as their work responsibilities are ramping up.

"If they were going to lean out, now would be the time," she said, whether it's to save on childcare costs or introduce more flexibility.

Add to the list aging parents. The costs of childcare and eldercare, sometimes unaffordable even with the intense work commitments required to afford them, have prompted some women to leave their full-time jobs for more flexible or minimum-wage work.

To Sandberg, it's a sign that companies are not adequately adjusting to meet women where they are, whether that's offering more flexible hours, longer parental or bereavement leave options, or better healthcare coverage.

"We're at a critical moment in time for women, because what a lot of women are seeing is that commitment to them in leadership pulling back," Sandberg said. "Then what's happening to them is their ambition is pulling back. And that's a loss. It's a loss for our economy. It's a loss for our companies. It's a loss for our children."

The allure of going at it alone

Not all women who are leaning out are doing so because they are overworked. Some, like Heigi Jeong, 30, have dreams beyond corporate America.

"While I wouldn't say I loved the work, I liked it," Jeong, who made $173,000 working in product design, told Business Insider. "It was my dream job as an immigrant, and it was sustainable."

Still, Jeong was pulled toward her other ambitions: writing a book and being a content creator. She was also intrigued by the idea of being her own boss.

"When I'm working for myself, I entirely choose the role I will play," Jeong said. "I wanted to experience it myself and have my own take rather than constantly wondering 'What if I quit?'"

Three months after quitting, she enjoys not feeling as rushed as she used to, even if the price is an inconsistent income.

Both Heggeness and Wright have noted a growing interest in entrepreneurship and self-employment among women. A 2024 Census working paper found that the share of women business owners under 45 rose between 2012 and 2020, with the biggest increase among women ages 25 to 34. It also found that newer women-owned employer businesses were disproportionately owned by women under 35.

The creator economy opened another path. More than 200 million people worldwide now identify as content creators, though that broad figure includes far more than full-time influencers. Some Gen Z and millennial consultants are even leaving MBB and Big Four firms to build audiences and businesses online — trading the girlboss crown for a bubble headband.

In a 2023 Vogue article, writer Daisy Jones wrote that the newest iteration of girlboss swaps grind culture with the similarly perfectionistic "soft life" defined by travel and lucrative brand deals. Pantsuits were exchanged for sweatpants; speaking engagements and spread-thin multitasking gave way to self-care and supplement stacks.

"In some ways, the career woman appears to have been replaced by the health-conscious woman," Jones wrote, "the one who prioritizes her vitamin intake, hydration, and sleep cycle over endless meetings and salary increases."

Content creation doesn't come without its own costs. Plenty of influencers report feeling financially insecure or overworked, unable to take a day off without losing money.

Still, if they're going to burn out or worry about their job security, some figure they might as well enjoy their autonomy to create their own schedules.

"For some women, there's been a paradigm shift in values," Wright said. "Promotion or success now looks like more availability, presence, and freedom."

When everyone leans out

Sandberg, who herself stepped down as Meta's COO in 2022 to pursue philanthropy and early-stage investing ventures, said she supports women's career choices, whatever they may be.

"I think being at home with your children is great," she said. "Going back to school, great. Starting a company, great. Going part-time, great. Anything you want to do is great."

Part of the issue, she said, is that without female leaders, there are simply fewer people to advocate for the very policies that make other women more excited to move up in a company, be it egg-freezing coverage, lactation rooms, or more competitive maternity leave options.

It's why she feels companies need to do more work to assess why women are leaning out enough to jump ship entirely. "It's easy to overly characterize the words 'lean in,'" she said. "What I mean by them is very clear: I think women should make decisions based on believing in their own abilities, based on believing that they should and can have the same opportunities as men."

It's just a shame, she continued, if the decision stems from not feeling valued enough in the corporate world.

"I just hope that enough women want those senior leadership roles," she said, "that we get the environment for women that they deserve."