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SpaceX-Tesla merger could create a Frankenstein's monster Wall Street can't value

Elon Musk sits in a formal setting wearing a dark suit and light tie, with attendees blurred behind him.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

Some pairings feel inevitable. "Friends" had Ross and Rachel. "The Office" had Jim and Pam. Elon Musk has SpaceX and Tesla.

But a deal between Musk's two giant companies could end up looking more like Frankenstein's monster than a Hollywood love story. And investors might struggle to understand and value it.

The SpaceX-Tesla tie-up isn't a shoo-in, but both sides are officially considering it. That raises questions about what's gained from a merger.

Combining the companies turns Musk's two jobs into one. Their somewhat overlapping AI plans could create significant efficiencies in areas like compute and talent. Joe Ciolli, author of the First Trade newsletter, broke down the pros and cons for SpaceX and Tesla investors.

These companies have A LOT under their hoods, though. Here are just some of the businesses or long-term bets that SpaceX and Tesla are pursuing:

  • Space-mission services (Falcon 9, Dragon, Starship)
  • Internet service (Starlink broadband)
  • Mobile carrier (Starlink Mobile)
  • Electric vehicles (Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster)
  • Government satellite systems (Starshield)
  • Autonomous vehicles (Robotaxi)
  • Humanoid robots (Optimus)
  • Energy storage (Powerwall, Megapack)
  • Frontier AI models (Grok)
  • Social media (X)
  • Payments app (X Money)
  • AI infrastructure (Colossus)
  • AI coding tools (Cursor)

And don't forget Musk's grandest ambition: colonizing Mars.

A conglomerate with such a diverse set of businesses can become a headache to value.

Let's start simple: How would you describe a SpaceX-Tesla entity?

A space company? An AI company? A robotics company? Saying it's "a little bit of everything" might not sit well with investors.

When a company plays in a bunch of industries, the market doesn't always give it the benefit of the doubt. There's a term for this phenomenon: conglomerate discount.

It means a company's stock is valued lower than the sum of its individual parts. Some investors fear the company will be too complex to manage, or too expensive to run. Others worry its combined financials will make it hard to understand its true health, or stronger parts of the business will subsidize weaker ones.

A widely cited 1995 paper on the topic found the discount to be between 13% and 15% among a sample of diversified companies from 1986 to 1991.

Some academics and economists have argued the conglomerate discount is a relic of the past. A 2024 McKinsey report said the discount wasn't necessarily automatic. Instead, heavily diversified companies often had weak performance or lacked financial transparency, which made it harder to assess their true value.

Either way, these types of companies require investors with a broad appetite. (Or a tough stomach.)

Imagine you're excited about Starlink's potential, but not as keen on humanoid robots. Expensive robotics projects could suck up the budget you were hoping would go to Starlink. Or the money generated by Starlink could subsidize the losses accrued in an underperforming division.

It's why giant, sprawling companies are often less appetizing than a pure-play stock.

Ultimately, a deal is often about selling a vision to investors. And there's arguably no one better at doing that than Elon Musk.

Now he just needs to prove SpaceX and Tesla were always meant to be together.

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The robot revolution faces these three big challenges

Graphic of robots

J Studios/Getty Images

Daft Punk only had it half right. Robots don't just rock; they also draw a ton of investment.

The French musicians who famously donned robot helmets retired five years ago, but Silicon Valley's obsession with robotics is reaching a fever pitch.

Robotics and physical AI companies raised $33.4 billion globally in the first half of 2026. It's a stunning rise for a sector that didn't even hit $5 billion in funding in all of 2020.

Rya Jetha, our resident robotics expert, wrote about why Silicon Valley is betting billions on a robot revolution. It's the first installment in Robonomics, our new series examining the rise of robots and their impact on business, jobs, and everyday life.

The size of the market that robotics can address is a big draw. The need for physical labor is so vast — from construction sites to at-home butlers — the possibilities are almost endless.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, a huge proponent of physical AI, valued the industry at … $50 trillion.

Just because the opportunity is there doesn't mean it'll be easy to realize.

Here are some of the biggest pain points standing in the way of the robotics revolution:

Not an easy hand-off: When talking about robots, the discussion typically starts and ends with human hands. It turns out our paws are pretty special, and quite difficult to recreate.

Granted, not every company wants to replicate the human hand. But a lot of tasks require the dexterity we have. Figuring out how to build those capabilities into robots hasn't been easy.

Hardware is hard: Building robots has gotten considerably cheaper than years ago thanks to advancements in computing and hardware. It's still a much more expensive endeavor than most software work, though. It's one thing to rewrite some code. It's another to build an entirely new prototype.

Those problems get magnified as you try to scale up physical production. The smallest mistake becomes a bigger problem if it gets too far down your supply chain. Just ask Elon Musk about it.

Human pushback: Companies often pitch AI tools as a way to enhance, not eliminate, human workers. Whether that's the reality is up for debate. Building robots to perform the same physical labor as humans leaves less room for interpretation.

Some still don't see it as a zero-sum game. Edward Mehr, the CEO of robotics startup Machina Labs, previously told me his new factory had the same number of human workers as one at a robot-free facility.

If robots do start replacing humans, they'll have to navigate another nuance specific to the blue-collar world: unions.

AI has benefited some blue-collar workers, including those involved in building AI data centers. That construction has been a boon for tradespeople, with some national labor unions even siding with developers.

They'll be a lot less friendly if robots mean replacing their members, though.

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SpaceX earnings put Elon Musk's Starlink cash cow to the test

Elon Musk is seen speaking during a state dinner at the White House
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk

Bloomberg/Getty Images

The SpaceX business helping to fund Elon Musk's biggest bets is taking a swing of its own just in time for earnings.

SpaceX reports earnings after the bell today, and Musk's goal of turning Starlink into a major mobile carrier is expected to be a focus.

Taking on Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile is a huge endeavor. And it requires significant investment from a company that already has a long list of expensive bets.

As a bit of a refresher, SpaceX is made up of three key parts: connectivity (Starlink), space (reusable rockets like Starship), and AI (Grok, X, and data centers). Among the three, connectivity is the only one generating an operating profit.

That makes it incredibly valuable not only as a stand-alone business but as a way to offset the expensive investments made by SpaceX's space and AI segments.

Turning Starlink into a mobile carrier complicates that arrangement. To offer service in more densely populated areas, SpaceX will need to launch more satellites into space and establish a ground footprint.

How much SpaceX plans to set aside for that buildout and the impact it'll have on the bottom line are key questions analysts will have.

Musk is no stranger to talking a big game. He recently said SpaceX could one day be worth more than Earth's economy.

He's backed it up by accomplishing things others thought were impossible, like self-landing rockets. Just don't expect him to hit his self-imposed deadlines. (Case in point: Tesla Roadster, which has faced numerous delays and is now targeting production in 2028.)

There's less at stake when you're starting from scratch. But with Starlink, it's also about Musk avoiding turning his cash cow into another capital drain.

According to another Musk proclamation, a lot of us will have a vested interest in SpaceX's success.

Early Monday morning, Musk said he'll give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year.

"This will be the first of many," he added.

Details on how that would work weren't clear, but many people immediately thought of the recently launched Trump Accounts.

President Donald Trump predicted Musk would donate SpaceX stock to the accounts. And SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell already said she'd gift a share of her company stock to Trump Accounts.

If that's how the shares are distributed, it's an example of the complexities the Trump Accounts can pose for some parents. Certain jobs, like those in financial services, have restrictions around the types of investments you can hold due to compliance reasons.

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Companies face heat for taking PE money. These days, the alternatives aren't great.

Person in glasses and a white shirt stands by a counter inside a colorful restaurant with Coca-Cola signage.
Christian Pineda, CEO and cofounder, and Jacobo Ackerman, chief operating partner, run the taco chain's day-to-day operations.

Dolly Faibyshev for BI

A horror story in eight words: Private equity just invested in my favorite BLANK.

"PE ruins everything" is a well-worn trope, but it's not unearned.

Private-equity investors have a history of stripping companies for parts and saddling them with debt, leaving customers wondering what happened to the product they once loved.

So it wasn't surprising that some fans of Los Tacos No. 1, an NYC Tijuana-style taco chain, feared a new PE investment would ultimately ruin things.

Christian Pineda, the chain's CEO and cofounder, told BI's Martina Nacach Cowan Ros that he's determined not to let that happen, and that "private equity is not always bad."

Ironically, the visceral reaction was exactly why TSG Consumer, which also backs Crumbl and Dutch Bros Coffee, was interested in the taco joint in the first place. TSG executive Colin Welch told Martina that Los Tacos No. 1 has a "cultlike following," and the company needs to "show those skeptics that it's going to be exactly the same."

Before you roll your eyes, there's a recent example of a largely positive PE-backed story in the restaurant industry. Blackstone spent two years turning founder-run Jersey Mike's into an IPO-ready company.

While the PE firm took big steps to professionalize the 51-year-old sandwich shop, it didn't touch portion sizes or suppliers. And Blackstone also established a shared ownership plan allowing Jersey Mike's employees to cash in on this summer's IPO.

It hasn't all been a fairy tale. The company opened below its IPO price of $23 — never a good sign — and is currently trading around $18 per share.

You might not like private equity, but it could be your only option.

Los Tacos No. 1 spent 13 years growing to 10 spots across Manhattan and an additional sister location, Los Mariscos. Further expansion in such an expensive city is difficult enough. Add in the rising cost of goods like beef, limes, and avocados, and growth plans become even harder to achieve.

There are other ways to raise capital outside PE, but they aren't pretty these days.

The lending market remains a disaster. The possibility of at least one more rate hike before the end of the year means borrowing costs aren't likely to drop anytime soon.

And the public market isn't too inviting. The heavy focus on AI means anyone who isn't a major player in that space risks being ignored by investors. Even the biggest names in AI, like OpenAI, aren't rushing to go public.

This isn't about defending private equity. (God knows it has enough money to do that itself.) It's just showing the economic and market environments have limited a lot of companies' choices.

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AI's need for data could breathe new life into a once-buzzy corner of Wall Street

A robot figurine's hands are held in front of a keyboard.
Personal AI agents like Instinct are taking over the tech world.

Dado Ruvic/REUTERS

The future of AI might rely on getting your Slack DMs.

It's not just your DMs, to be clear. It's internal memos, transaction records, contracts, and even that onboarding guide you probably didn't read when you started your job.

Basically, if it's work-related and has been documented, AI companies are interested. The rationale is straightforward: If AI tools are going to automate work, they need a deep understanding of what the work is.

BI did a deep dive on AI companies' race to scoop up as much data as possible in its series "The AI Data Grab."

BI's Charles Rollet, Tom Carter, and Stephen Council first unpacked the wild market that's sprung up for this data. Things move quickly, including "exploding offers."

Others are figuring out how to leverage their databases. Law firms, which often have detailed archives, are a great example. BI's Melia Robinson has more on that.

And sometimes it's about actually creating the data yourself. That's the case in robotics, writes BI's Rya Jetha. Companies are shelling out big to have people record everyday tasks like cooking and cleaning.

AI's data push could renew interest in a space that's already navigated an info-hungry industry.

Alternative data, unstructured datasets such as satellite imagery and card transactions, became a hot commodity on Wall Street in the mid-2010s.

These non-traditional datasets are supposed to give investors an edge. Want to know if Home Depot will beat earnings estimates? Analyze satellite images of its parking lots to see whether foot traffic is rising or declining.

When I covered the space closely with my colleague Bradley Saacks, the data providers often highlighted that the real market opportunity was selling into big corporates.

Hedge funds might be rich, but there are only so many of them to go around. The market also has a ceiling. If too many people are trading off the same datasets, you lose your potential edge.

AI's data needs can fill the gap alt-data providers hoped corporates would. And unlike hedge funds interested in real-time, market-relevant data, these firms benefit from a wider, deeper catalog.

Some players already see an opportunity. When former Point72 data wizard Kirk McKeown launched a data startup last year, he told Bradley it aimed to package data in an easily accessible way for AI models to scoop up.

It's promising, but there are no guarantees. Alt data faced real growing pains as providers struggled to scale their offerings while maintaining data quality. AI companies' needs might differ, but their expectations won't be any easier. And in some cases, money managers might find the most useful data in their own backyard.

In the meantime, follow Bradley here for more coverage on how alt-data providers are navigating the AI era. And keep an eye out for a hedge-fund-focused newsletter from him later this year.

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