While the 2026 election largely ignores gender equality, structural changes in centrist parties and a grassroots ultra-Orthodox movement might be quietly shifting the political map
Nearly half of Muslim and Jewish respondents in a major French poll say they would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election, according to an exclusive Ifop survey for the magazine Marianne.
The poll found that 46 percent of respondents identifying as Muslim would contemplate “leaving France to settle in another country” under a Le Pen presidency. Of those, 20 percent said they would “certainly” take that step. By comparison, 21 percent of the overall population expressed a similar willingness to leave.
The figure is part of a broader set of findings on identity, secularism, and anticipated reactions to a National Rally (RN) victory. Eighty-one percent of Muslim respondents believed a Le Pen win would lead to a rise in discrimination against their community. Twenty-seven percent said they would consider concealing their religious identity in daily life, including 18 percent who would stop wearing the veil in public.
Similar sentiments appeared in other groups polled.
Forty percent of the youngest cohort of French voters, 43 percent of France Unbowed (LFI) voters, and 44 percent of Jewish respondents said they would consider leaving. The survey also recorded elevated support for civil disobedience in some cohorts. For instance, substantial shares indicated they would refuse to respect laws they viewed as unjust.
Notably, while Le Pen has been antagonistic towards Islam in France, she has often cast herself as a protector of Jewish life in the country.
In 2024, she said, “The best shield for French people of the Jewish faith is the National Rally. It is the only movement that has the will, the conviction and the means to fight Islamist fundamentalism, which is the major danger facing them.”
Yet, nearly as many Jews said they would leave the country as Muslims.
Le meilleur bouclier pour les Français de confession juive, c’est le Rassemblement National.
C’est le seul mouvement qui a la volonté, la conviction et les moyens de lutter contre le fondamentalisme islamiste qui est le danger majeur qui pèse sur eux. https://t.co/pggWHgzITu
François Kraus, director of the Politics and Current Affairs division at Ifop, described the results: “The arrival in power of the candidate favored by the polls risks creating significant obstacles and generates high levels of fear and a sense of insecurity.”
The National Rally has long advocated tighter controls on immigration, greater priority for French nationals in housing and employment, and restrictions on Islamic veiling in public spaces. Le Pen has indicated she would not impose an immediate ban on the veil upon taking office but would put broader restrictions to a national referendum.
Previous Ifop work has documented rising religiosity and support for more rigorous interpretations of Islam among younger French Muslims, including significant shares prioritizing Islamic norms over French civil law on issues such as inheritance or ritual slaughter in certain scenarios. Remix News reported on this poll last year.
Figures on the right treated these results as evidence of failed integration and the dangers of demographic change.
Currently, Le Pen has frequently led first-round voting intention polls, making her the favorite to win the presidential election.
It is important to note that many groups claim they will leave a country if their preferred candidate does not win an election, but actually leaving is an entirely different story. The 46 percent figure for Muslims and 44 percent for Jews is only an expressed willingness or contemplation in a hypothetical scenario, not concrete plans to leave France.
The reality is that family ties, employment, and economic realities mean that leaving is far harder in practice.
In Judaism, circumcision, known as Brit Milah, is a religious ritual where a male infant's foreskin is removed on the eighth day after birth. ''Circumcision has been shown throughout decades of medical research to not be harmful to baby boys. In fact it has medical benefits - which is why so many people choose to circumcise their children outside of religion. ''Attacking circumcision in this manner - only when it relates to Jewish babies, is an attack on Jewish life in Europe,'' the Jewish leaders said in their open letter, writes European Jewish Press.
First program of its kind outside Israel will provide qualified Mohalim with advanced medical and safety training, practical assessment and certification under the supervision of an international network of urologists, paediatricians, physicians and medical scientists.
Against the backdrop of growing legal and political challenges to Jewish religious circumcision in Belgium and other European countries, the European Jewish Association (EJA) and the Rabbinical Centre of Europe (RCE) announced Tuesday the establishment of the Centre of Excellence for Religious Male Circumcision (CERM) and the launch of what is believed to be the first comprehensive medical and professional certification program of its kind for qualified Mohalim outside Israel.
Health and Animal Welfare Commissioner Oliver Várhelyi commended EJA for their efforts and stated: “Jewish life and Jewish religious practice belong in Europe. Our responsibility is to ensure that longstanding traditions can continue in a framework that meets the highest standards of child welfare, medical safety and professional responsibility, in line with European standards. The Centre of Excellence for Religious Male Circumcision offers a constructive and credible model for doing exactly that.”
Based in Brussels, CERM will provide already-qualified Mohalim – trained Jewish religious practitioners who perform Brit Milah – with structured supplementary medical and safety training, practical assessment and certification. The program will operate under the supervision of an international network of urologists, paediatricians, physicians and medical scientists, with a Medical and Scientific Council responsible for reviewing and approving its clinical protocols, certification assessments and professional standards. The program aims to work with health authorities across Europe to build confidence in qualified Mohalim as the practitioners best placed to perform religious circumcision, ensuring their competence is recognized through rigorous medical standards and independent supervision – rather than becoming a matter of political debate.
The curriculum covers the medical and safety framework surrounding the procedure, including newborn assessment, hygiene and infection prevention, infant welfare, bleeding and wound care, recognition of complications, emergency response and infant basic life support, medical referral and aftercare. Certification will include practical assessment, realistic clinical scenarios and emergency simulations, with particular emphasis on recognising warning signs, understanding the limits of competence and knowing when to postpone a procedure or seek medical assistance.
Brit Milah, traditionally performed on the eighth day after birth, is one of Judaism’s oldest and most fundamental religious practices.
Rabbi Menachem Margolin, Chairman of the European Jewish Association and the Rabbinical Centre of Europe, said: “Brit Milah has been at the heart of Jewish life for thousands of years. Faced with growing challenges to the practice and, in particular, to the ability of trained Mohalim to perform it in parts of Europe, we decided that our response must go beyond defending our religious freedom.”
”We are creating the highest possible professional framework to support it. For the first time outside Israel on this scale, our trained Mohalim will have access to a comprehensive program combining medical and safety training with practical assessment, certification and clear professional standards.” We deliberately called this a Centre of Excellence. When it comes to the welfare and safety of a child, our ambition should never simply be to meet a minimum standard. We want excellence – and we want that excellence to be transparent, documented and capable of being independently demonstrated,” he added.
CERM’s launch follows a period of repeated legal and political challenges to religious circumcision in Europe. Belgium has become a particular focal point, with the status of non-physician Mohalim subject to significant legal and political uncertainty, while debates and attempts to impose restrictions have also arisen in other European countries.
The Centre has been established as a practical response: to strengthen medical safeguards, professional standards and oversight surrounding Brit Milah, while helping safeguard the ability of Jewish communities to continue practising an essential element of Jewish life in Europe.
“Our members were asking us for a serious and sustainable answer,” Rabbi Margolin added. “We listened. For the first time outside Israel on this scale, qualified Mohalim will have access to a comprehensive program combining medical and safety training with practical assessment, certification and clear professional standards.”
CERM builds on the existing training and experience of qualified Mohalim by adding a documented, standardised and independently assessed medical and professional layer. Its “Recognise, Prevent, Stop, Refer” safety model is designed to ensure practitioners can identify warning signs, prevent avoidable risks, act within clearly defined limits and promptly refer an infant to medical professionals when required.
The program draws on established medical and scientific guidance and will be subject to continuing medical review. Its Medical Officers and Advisory Board bring together expertise from Belgium, the United Kingdom, Israel, Italy and Germany, including specialists with direct experience of Israel’s formal system for the certification and supervision of Mohalim. Among them are Brussels-based urologist Dr. Sas Bar-Moshe; British physician and veteran Mohel Dr. Joseph Spitzer, Medical Officer of the UK’s Initiation Society since 2003; and Dr. Michael Ben Akon, Director of the Children’s Division at Laniado Hospital in Israel, a certified Mohel and a Ministry of Health representative on Israel’s inter-ministerial committee responsible for the certification and supervision of Mohalim.
The medical and scientific framework is intended not only to establish standards at the point of certification, but to provide ongoing professional oversight, with protocols and assessment standards reviewed as medical guidance and professional practice evolve. CERM ultimately aims to become a European reference centre for religious male circumcision, promoting evidence-based medical and professional standards and facilitating ongoing cooperation between Mohalim, medical professionals, Jewish communities, policymakers and public authorities.
Rabbi Margolin said: “The debate in Europe is too often presented as a choice between religious freedom and the welfare of the child. We reject that premise. The two are not in conflict. The stronger and more transparent the professional standards surrounding Brit Milah, the stronger the case for protecting the freedom of Jewish families to practise it. Europe cannot claim to protect Jewish life while repeatedly placing one of its most fundamental practices in doubt. CERM offers a constructive European answer: preserve religious freedom, demand excellence and make that excellence transparent.”
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