As frozen ground thaws in the Arctic, dead plants and animals locked in soils for thousands of years start to decay, releasing methane and carbon dioxide. Those gases trap heat from the sun and warm the planet. And the more the planet warms, the more Arctic permafrost thaws. This is just one feedback loop among many that most climate modeling has largely overlooked. A recent study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters examined four sources of greenhouse gases from natural systems: permafrost, wetlands, freshwater, and wildfires. The authors estimate that greenhouse gases released by these natural systems could add another 0.2°-0.4° Celsius (0.4°-0.7° Fahrenheit) of warming by 2100. That would amplify human-caused warming since 2020 by 20-30%. Methane accounts for roughly half that warming. Natural systems such as wetlands, permafrost, and forests have always released some greenhouse gases. This study tracks only the extra emissions released after 2020, as humanity keeps heating the planet by burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and other activities. As this increased heat revs up these natural systems, thawing permafrost exposes additional ancient organic matter to decay. Warmer wetlands and freshwater lakes speed up the growth of the microbes that make methane. Drier forests burn more often, releasing planet-warming gases. The study was the first to pull all four sources together and “quantify this amplification of anthropogenic global warming,” lead author Sam Abernethy, a climate scientist at U.S.-based nonprofit Spark Climate Solutions, told Mongabay. Degraded permafrost in northern Alaska. Permafrost thaw is considered a climate…This article was originally published on Mongabay

As a potentially historic El Niño builds in the Pacific, evidence suggests that climate change is ratcheting up the intensity of such events. And as temperatures rise in the future, the number and frequency of strong El Niños could increase even further, some experts say. “The evidence is accumulating that climate change makes for more powerful El Niños,” climate scientist Mark Cane with Columbia University in the U.S. told Mongabay in a video interview. His work was instrumental in enabling accurate forecasting of El Niño events in the late 1980s and early ’90s. This year’s El Niño is on the verge of breaking all records as it continues to build and is forecast to peak between October and December 2026, according to most models. A pre-print study found an event of this size is six times more likely due to climate change. The 2026-2027 event “is clearly going to be very large, up there with the handful of largest events that we’re aware of,” Cane said. A coral reef in the Galapagos Islands. In 1982, a marine heatwave triggered by a very strong El Niño killed off around 95% of the coral in the Galapagos. That left “death horizons” in the coral samples, evidence of the catastrophic impact of that event. Image by Julia Cole. A continuing debate Whether climate change is intensifying El Niños and altering their frequency — and crucially, whether it will continue to do so — remains an open question. Today’s El Niños can be forecast…This article was originally published on Mongabay