The global smartphone market declined at a record level in Q3 2026 according to the latest figures from IDC, with shipments dropping 22% due to the ongoing AI-led memory crisis.

The research company found shipments fell at the highest year-on-year level of any quarter to date, shrinking to 255.3 million units.

Nabila Popal, senior research director at the research company, said the sharp downturn the industry had been bracing for “finally materialised”, and warned the worst is yet to come.

“Current indicators suggest that market has not yet reached the bottom. Memory costs have surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments.”

She added while memory inflation is beginning to slowdown, “costs remain elevated across other critical components as well, compounding the crunch”.

To that end, market growth is expected to be constrained through 2027 and any possible recovery pushed to 2028 at the least.

Individual vendor rankings remained similar to the last quarter. Samsung and Apple continued to gain market share with 22.6% and 22.4% respectively, even though both companies’ quarterly shipments dropped.  

Rounding out the top five companies, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo all experienced double-digit market share drops.

Kiranjeet Kaur, associate research director for Worldwide Devices at IDC, added despite sluggish sales some vendors raised production plans ahead of an expected tightening in component supply next year.

“If demand remains weak, this could lead to inventory build-up heading into 2027, adding a further downside risk to our 2027 forecast,” she said.

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