• SpaceX is phasing out its popular Falcon 9 rocket in favor of its much larger Starship rocket.
• That presents a headache for the US Space Force, POLITICO reports.
• The Space Force has said it's open to eventually using SpaceX's Starship. But there are engineering challenges to overcome.

SpaceX's plans to retire its most popular rocket could jeopardize the United States' ability to launch military satellites — a plight compounded by the Pentagon's dependence on Elon Musk's company.

SpaceX is by far the dominant player in the rocket business and indispensable to the military, dwarfing competitors and accounting for 85% of US launches in 2025. The company is phasing out its Falcon 9 rocket to make way for Starship, a massive new vehicle that SpaceX says will be more efficient and profitable, but which many military satellites aren't designed to fit.

The situation leaves the Space Force in a launch crunch that could affect the military's ability to put its advanced satellites in orbit — and on time. The Pentagon has few alternatives to ferry its equipment, and SpaceX's competitors are likely years away from being able to offer comparable services, reports POLITICO, which — like Business Insider — is part of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network.

"Everybody's having problems, so the Space Force is freaking out a little bit about launch," one former Space Force official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.

It also highlights the scale of Musk's company's footprint and the way its business decisions can affect the security of countries including the United States. From the battlefield in Ukraine, where Kyiv is dependent on his Starlink satellite internet service, to cutting-edge artificial intelligence and SpaceX's stranglehold over the pathways to orbit, the world's first trillionaire has a direct hand in the technology that will shape the future.

The Space Force recently tried to book rides for three future satellite missions, but SpaceX declined to offer its services, according to two people familiar with the missions. No other rocket companies offered to take them either, the people said.

A top official at the Space Force downplayed the problem about finding rockets to launch military satellites.

"I wouldn't say there [are] missions I'm worried about being able to fly; I would say we're working through the right way to support those customers," said Brig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force's acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access.

But Zarybnisky acknowledged growing pains for the government and space industry as demand for rockets increases. "Temporarily, there are some things we'll need to work through, again, as we get new providers flying," he said.

SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.

The three Space Force missions that didn't find a ride were listed through the National Security Space Launch initiative, or NSSL — the program the service uses to buy rocket launches for its satellites.

Two of the missions were for the Space Development Agency, according to the people. The agency is a branch of the Space Force that's building a network of hundreds of military satellites in low-Earth orbit to provide expanded data services, and missile warning and tracking capabilities.

Details about the third Space Force mission or the precise date for when the Space Force hoped to launch the missions are unclear.

The Space Force has set up a two-lane system for buying its launches, one for less demanding efforts and another for more challenging missions. The hope was that new competitors, such as Rocket Lab, Stoke Space and Relativity, would have an easier time winning contracts for the lower-risk missions. But SpaceX has dominated both lanes with its Falcon rocket, and other providers have been slow to scale up.

The Space Force hopes to use two large rockets from SpaceX competitors to ferry key military satellites into orbit: United Launch Alliance's Vulcan and Blue Origin's New Glenn.

But the Vulcan rocket has struggled to launch consistently and was grounded earlier this year after problems with its solid rocket boosters. Space Force officials have been frustrated by ULA's delays and have moved missions slated for a Vulcan to a SpaceX Falcon.

Meanwhile, Blue Origin's New Glenn program had a devastating setback in May when a rocket exploded on the company's only launchpad in Florida — putting the rocket out of commission likely until next year.

The Space Force has said it's open to eventually using SpaceX's Starship. But there are engineering challenges to overcome because Starship is designed for "flat stack" satellites such as Starlink, while most military satellites are designed for a larger cargo bay. And it's unclear when SpaceX will have the capacity to meet the Pentagon's needs, given its plans to use Starship to build out orbital data-centers and other company priorities.

Other newer companies may have some solutions. Stoke Space, Relativity and Rocket Lab are all working on medium-lift rockets that could help meet the military's needs. But none of those companies has flown successful test flights of their new vehicles, meaning it could take years for them to start launching reliably and frequently.

Zarybnisky remained optimistic that Blue Origin and ULA will work through their technical problems and that new competitors will get up and running in time.

"We're excited to see where those new providers come on board and are able to support the national security base launches that we need," he said.

It's not just the Pentagon feeling the pinch. The move to decommission the Falcon 9 rocket and focus on Starship has sent the entire space industry into panic — especially commercial satellite builders. Some of those firms have been unable to secure Falcon 9 flights after 2028.

The Space Force didn't disclose a set date for when it will fly its last Falcon mission, but Zarybnisky said the service is "actively talking to SpaceX and understanding where the spacecraft programs are, where they are in their build and test cycle. The end date will really be driven by the spacecraft customers that we have launch service contracts for already."

It's unclear what happens after the Space Force runs through that batch of missions. An industry representative warned that the service is unprepared to deal with the crisis coming its way as demand for rockets increases across the space industry.

New rocket companies can't bid on a Space Force launch until they've demonstrated the ability to successfully fly, part of an effort to keep vaporware companies from winning government business. But commercial satellite companies are not restricted in the same way and have been buying up early launches on rockets that haven't even flown yet. This puts more pressure on the Space Force to find future launches.

The launch crunch "probably requires the Space Force to get creative and figure out a way to start buying capacity now before it's too late," the representative said.

Another person familiar with the issue said that Space Force officials need to work with Congress to "fundamentally rethink" how the military acquires launch.

"The Space Force needs to be allowed to reserve multiple launches at a time, much further out into the 2030s, for vehicles that have yet to fly," the person said. "Yes, it's taking on more risk … [but] if it waits for new rockets to prove themselves, it may find they're already sold out."

This story originally appeared on POLITICO and is courtesy of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which harnesses the resources of the company's newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces, and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms.

• Thiel criticized the US-Iran war, diverging from Trump's foreign policy stance, POLITICO reported.
• "There were a lot of mistakes that were made," Thiel said at a lecture earlier this month.
• Despite his criticism of the war in Iran, Thiel highlighted his continued support for Trump.

Billionaire technology investor Peter Thiel said he's skeptical of the US war with Iran and does not believe the United States should have launched it, putting the major Republican donor at odds with President Donald Trump over one of the administration's defining foreign policy decisions, POLITICO reported.

Thiel's remarks, delivered on October 12 at a private event, are his most explicit statements to be revealed publicly about the war with Iran and come less than two weeks before the midterm elections in which Trump's party is grasping to maintain power in Congress. The audio of Thiel's comments was obtained by Decoded by POLITICO from a lecture earlier this month.

"I'm skeptical of [the war], I think we should not have done it," Thiel said. "There were a lot of mistakes that were made."

Thiel added, "Maybe we don't have the hard power. Maybe we're going to lose the soft power war."

In the full lecture, Thiel made clear his strong opposition to neoconservatives and Middle East wars. Despite his criticism of the Iran war, Thiel highlighted his continued support of Trump and suggested he wanted to protect the president.

Still, Thiel's break over the war represents one of the most important examples to date of a fierce Trump ally sharing deep concerns about the conflict.

The comments were part of Thiel's lecture series in Nashville, which Decoded has documented since their start this fall. In the latest lecture, Thiel issued extensive warnings about what he described as the unchecked power of the International Criminal Court, drawing on comments from Bush-era figures Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney.

"I read the Cheney family's Trump derangement syndrome as an attempt to buy favor with the [International Criminal Court] and avoid prosecution. Probably too late," Thiel said. "And I have come to suspect that the threat of an ICC arrest warrant is the sword of Damocles hanging over the Trump administration as it tries to persecute this war in Iran."

Thiel also discusses meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in early 2024, after the October 7 attack, where he said he asked the president about his plans in Gaza. Thiel said Netanyahu told him, "I can't just Dresdenize it," referring to the Allied bombing of the German city of Dresden during World War II that killed roughly 25,000 people.

The first big tech investor to back Trump in 2016, and then have a high-profile speaking role at the Republican National Convention that year, Thiel was also the biggest financial backer of super PACs supporting Vice President JD Vance's Senate campaign in 2022. POLITICO reported in March that Vance was "skeptical" of the U.S. striking Iran in the lead-up to the beginning of the war.

Representatives for Thiel and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

This story originally appeared on POLITICO and is courtesy of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which harnesses the resources of the company's newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces, and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms.