Russian tech giant Yandex's data center in Sasovo burned out from the inside, a Ukrainian OSINT analyst wrote on 22 October. On cloud-free satellite images, he saw almost no significant holes in its roof. Ukrainian drones hit the site overnight on 8 October.
Sasovo was the first strike on a data center in Russia. It came two weeks after Russia destroyed data centers in Kyiv. Drones then hit Yandex sites in Vladimir and Kaluga, a Sber data center, and a VK data center near St. Petersburg, which VK acknowledged. In occupied Donbas, monitoring channels reported hits on buildings housing telecom operators.
What the analyst sees
The analyst, who goes by Harbuz, runs the Ukrainian OSINT channel Dnipro Osint. His roof reading comes from the images. His interior claim comes from what he called available information: he wrote that a fire broke out inside and put part of the equipment out of action.
Cloud-free satellite image of the damaged Yandex data center in Sasovo, Ryazan Oblast, posted 22 October 2026. Image: Dnipro Osint
In an earlier post, Harbuz wrote that a third of the data center had burned out. In the new one, he writes that the building burned out from the inside. He does not say whether he revised the earlier figure.
Russian outlet Agentstvo studied Airbus images from 12 October. It found damage on about a third of the building. Unlike Harbuz, though, Agentstvo described a blackened western roof with damage resembling holes.
What Yandex says
On 8 October, Yandex stated that the attack caused a fire and forced it to suspend operations at the site, which hosts tens of thousands of servers, Reuters reported. Yandex Cloud and the Disk and Documents services that run on it ran with major disruptions that morning, Russian outlet The Bell reported.
Later that day, the company stated: "The scale of the damage to the infrastructure is still being assessed. For the moment, we cannot confirm whether it is possible to restore the data centre equipment in Sasovo." Two of Yandex's three supercomputers, used to develop its AI model, are housed there.
The same day, journalists asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy whether Ukraine was targeting Russian data centers. He did not refer specifically to the Yandex strike, Reuters noted, but said: "We always respond in mirror-like fashion."
Meta Platforms plans to expand its Muse personal agent and charge businesses for transactions it handles, CEO Mark Zuckerberg (pictured) stated on the company’s Q3 earnings call.
He said more than 10 million people in the US and Canada have set up Muse in a month and a half, and about 25% use it on any given day
Zuckerberg stated Muse had a “clear product-market fit” and that Meta will focus on attracting more users, increasing revenue and optimising compute costs.
“We expect to grow Muse to serve billions of people,” he said, calling the goal as “both our mission and our strategy”.
The Muse line began in April with Muse Spark, the first model from Meta’s Superintelligence Labs. This month Meta followed with Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full.
Shopping is Muse’s most common use, with more than a quarter of users shopping through the agent.
Zuckerberg said Muse “should be free” for most people, with Meta taking a fee on transactions it facilitates for businesses. Subscriptions would cover access to the most advanced models or extra tokens, and business owners could also subscribe directly.
“We have been discussing our vision for personal superintelligence for more than a year now,” he said. “We want every person [to] have an extremely capable personal agent that understands your goals and can help you achieve them,” he said.
Meta Q3 metrics Meta’s quarterly revenue rose 26% year over year to $64.6 billion.
Costs climbed 68% to $51.6 billion, including a $9.89 billion charge from an August agreement with 52 attorneys general over teen mental health claims.
Operating income fell 37% to $13 billion and the operating margin halved to 20%. Net income rose to $9.9 billion from $2.7 billion a year earlier, when a one-time $15.9 billion tax charge reduced profit.
Capital spending totalled $34.9 billion, with Meta forecasting $135 billion to $145 billion for 2026.
Its apps reach 3.64 billion people a day, up 3% from a year ago but just below the 3.65 billion analysts expected, according to StreetAccount. Zuckerberg said Threads has overtaken X in monthly users.
Reality Labs, which makes the Quest headsets and the Ray-Ban and Oakley AI glasses, lost $4.1 billion on $443 million of revenue, compared to a $4.4 billion loss a year ago.
Meta CFO Susan Li said the company expects Reality Labs to lose $18 billion to $19 billion in 2026, down slightly from $19.2 billion in 2025.
Also yesterday, Reuters reported a New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay the state $25 billion after a jury found it misled consumers in a case tied to the Cambridge Analytica scandal. The tech giant said it will appeal.
Companies are announcing enormous new data centers to power the AI boom. Some promise facilities bigger than anything the industry has built before.
There's just one problem: Most of these projects may never happen.
Bernstein Research analyzed thousands of planned US data centers and concluded that only about 35% of the announced capacity is likely to get built. That's roughly 170 gigawatts of data center capacity out of a total of almost 500 gigawatts.
The rest? A significant chunk of it belongs to a category the industry has a wonderfully dismissive name for: "Bragawatts." These are ambitious announcements, often from newcomers with little experience building data centers, that have a slim chance of becoming reality.
"Press releases are cheap…concrete is not," Bernstein analysts wrote in a research note.
Bernstein began its analysis with more than 7,000 data center projects across North America, drawing on information from Aterio, a company that tracks construction through satellite imagery, permits, and other records. The analysts narrowed that to more than 5,000 projects (partly by excluding thosealready canceled).
Then they assessed the chances of these remaining projects being completed. The analysts considered factors such as whether construction had started, whether electricity was available, and whether the companies involved had successfully built data centers before.
The results revealed a striking divide.
The 'bragawatt brigade'
Kevin O'Leary.
Daniel Delgado Jr./Disney via Getty Images
Experienced operators including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta landed at the top. Bernstein gave these companies perfect scores of 5 out of 5 for their development credentials. Other data center specialists, such as Digital Realty, Equinix, and CoreSite, got top marks, too.
O'Leary Digital, associated with celebrity investor Kevin O'Leary, ended up at the bottom,with a credibility score of 0.35 out of 5, according to Bernstein. His company has announced 15 gigawatts of data center projects, and Bernstein estimates that only 489 megawatts, or about 3%, will actually materialize.
Although the term "bragawatts" has been doing the rounds in the data center industry lately, it's unclear who coined it, Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei told me.
"I wish I could take credit for that," she said. "I believe I originally heard it from an Equinix executive, but I don't think he owned it either."
She said that whilesome ambitious newcomers could succeed, they haven't yet demonstrated they can deliver.
"It's not that all of these guys are sort of terrible and not going to deliver, but we just have lower confidence because we don't know them," Rezaei said.
O'Leary Digital responds
O'Leary Digital disputed Bernstein's assessment, saying the research doesn't account for substantial work that occurs before construction begins.
While acknowledging that O'Leary Digital is a young company, CEO Paul Palandjian said the team has decades of experience building major infrastructure projects and that its proposed 15 gigawatts of capacity would be built in stages over several years.
The company said it has secured binding agreements covering about 11,000 acres in Utah and 13,000 acres in Alberta, obtained a 30-year development agreement in Utah, and made progress on planning, engineering, and permits at both sites. It also said the projects would generate their own electricity.
The company said its early development work is funded, additional capital is committed to reaching key milestones, and experienced engineering and construction partners are involved.
"We would rather be judged on milestones than on a model," Palandjian said.
'An announcement in search of a project'
Opponents of the proposed La Osa data center attend a Pinal County Board of Supervisors meeting in Florence, Arizona, on August 26.
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Other low scorers in the "bragawatt" brigade included Vermaland and Joule Capital Partners, according to Bernstein analysis based on Aterio data.
Joule has announced 50 data center projects with a combined capacity of 11.7 gigawatts. Bernstein estimates that only about 11% of that capacity will actually get built. Almost all of Joule's planned capacity remains at the announcement stage, with little evidence of construction progress or of major customers committing to use the facilities, Bernstein wrote in a July note to investors.
The analysts gave Joule a credibility score of 2.05 out of 5, placing it among the lowest-ranked developers in its database.
"An announcement in search of a project," the analysts wrote.
Vermaland has announced plans for a massive data center project in Arizona. Bernstein estimates that only 4% of its proposed 2.2 gigawatts of capacity will get built. The company is primarily a landowner, not a data center developer. Its proposed $33 billion La Osa project near Eloy had already been sharply scaled back amid local opposition and without construction approval. In late August, regulators formally rejectedthe project. Even before that, the analysts gave Vermaland a credibility score of 0.75 out of 5.
Joule and Vermaland didn't respond to emails seeking comment this week.
A yawning gap for data centers
Sergio Toro, CEO of Aterio, sees similar patterns in his firm's voluminous, detailed data.
Aterio's tracking shows that roughly 30 to 40 gigawatts of new data center capacity get announced each month. Yet only about 7 gigawatts begin construction each month, while 2 to 3 gigawatts actually start operating.
This leaves a yawning gap.
Many announced projects get withdrawn before construction begins — and before real money has been spent.
"They just make the announcement, but they didn't get their approvals. Or they make multiple filings in multiple locations to see which one gets selected," Toro told me. "That's why we track with satellite if there's real movement on the ground or not."
Indeed, Bernstein analysts wrote recently that the amount of "stranded" data center capacity has surged. These are projects that are either canceled, delayed, or not approved.
The AI boom's three tiers
Toro sees three broad groups competing to build AI infrastructure.
At the top are the established technology giants, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. They've built data centers for decades and generally deliver on their commitments. Most of their projects will get done, he said.
In the middle are "neoclouds," newer companies such as CoreWeave that rent out computing power specifically for AI. Although they're more vulnerable to financing problems and delays, many are making solid progress, especially because some of these players already have access to electricity.
"We see them advancing quite well," Toro said. "Sometimes we see some delays, but it's not something significant or any kind of big capacity that is at risk."
Then come the newcomers making extraordinary promises. That's where most delays and cancellations happen, Toro said.
Even Amazon needs a backup plan
A technician works at an Amazon Web Services AI data center in New Carlisle, Indiana.
Noah Berger/Getty Images via Amazon Web Services
Not every project that disappears was a fantasy, though. Even a top player like Amazon struggles sometimes to secure electricity and other supplies on time for these huge projects.
The biggest, most experienced tech companies deliberately pursue more potential data center capacity than they need because they know some developments will fail or get delayed.
Major AI companies were committing to three or four times the space and electricity they needed over the following two years, Jeffrey Moerdler, a data center lawyer, estimated during an interview with Bernstein analysts.
His reasoning: Of data center projects that haven't started construction, roughly a third will arrive on schedule, another third will be delayed, and the remainder won't happen.
Rezaei and Toro estimate that the top players don't over-commit that much — more like double the capacity they need at most.
The strategy provides a "Plan B," as Toro put it, in case of delays involving electricity, equipment, permits, local opposition, or other factors.
Texas has a ghost problem
The Decker Creek Power Station in Austin.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
This helps explain another extraordinary number.
Data center companies have requested connections for roughly 450 gigawatts of electricity demand on Texas' main power grid, more than five times the grid's roughly 85 gigawatts of existing capacity, according to Toro and others.
Many of those requests are placeholders rather than firm construction plans. Toro calls them "ghost projects."
These speculative projects clog the waiting lists for electricity connections, making the electricity shortage look a lot worse than it actually is.
"Developers routinely spam projects across several sites, and many are speculative builds with no customer yet," Ryan McEntush, a partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, wrote in a recent blog. "Often these new developers have never even plugged in a GPU, let alone a power plant."
Texas has paused applications to review and weed out projects that aren't serious. Toro, from Aterio, expects this to favor the established players at the expense of the bragawatts.
The real AI boom
None of this means the AI infrastructure boom is imaginary.
Aterio tracks thousands of buildings, including major projects already under construction. Bernstein estimates that nearly 80% of the capacity the largest technology companies are directly developing is credible.
And when speculative projects disappear, Rezaei doesn't expect a wave of unpaid debt. Many will fail before building begins, the stage when developers borrow serious money through project financing.
Some of those missing data centers were never really coming in the first place.
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