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Reporter's Notebook: Congress braces for post-election game of musical chairs as leadership battles loom

Capitol Hill is about to embark on a biennial game of musical chairs.

Everyone needs to find a seat when the music stops. Those who don’t are out.

There are four sets of leadership elections pending in Congress over the next few weeks. House Republicans and Democrats will pick their top leaders. The same with Senate Republicans and Democrats. The entire House must elect a speaker when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3. The full Senate chooses the majority leader. That’s decided individually by the majority party in the Senate.

We anticipate a scramble for leadership positions in the days following the election, depending on which party captures the majority of each body for the new Congress.

JORDAN EMERGES AS POTENTIAL NEXT GOP LEADER IF DEMS SEIZE HOUSE

Let’s start with House Republicans.

If Republicans maintain control of the House, the GOP will likely maintain its current leadership team of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. However, if the GOP loses control of the House, recriminations — and an epic game of vicious political musical chairs likely commences.

The reason? In the minority, a party only has two top leadership positions compared to three in the majority. Will Johnson slide to minority leader? Does he want that slot? Does President Donald Trump want him in that position? Or someone else?

Regardless, whoever Trump wants as the top House Republican is the one who gets that slot in the new Congress.

Would Scalise become minority leader? Would he slide to minority whip? Where does Emmer fit in here? Could Emmer become the top House GOPer?

Then there is Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

It’s clear that Jordan wants to become the top Republican in the House. He’s campaigned for Republican candidates and members for months and has raised money on the GOP’s behalf for years. It’s unclear if Jordan might be in a race against Johnson or any of the others soon.

Keep in mind that Scalise, Emmer and Jordan all lost bids to become speaker when the House dismissed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in the fall of 2023. In fact, Jordan lost multiple floor votes for speaker before the House Republican Conference nixed him as the GOP nominee.

In the interim, Jordan has worked to build bridges among Republicans who opposed him three years ago. The Ohio Republican also remains a close ally of Trump. Jordan also maintains strong ties to the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

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The question is what rank-and-file Republicans want to do if they find themselves in the minority? Some might prefer a wholesale set of changes among the GOP leadership team. But it will come down to musical chairs. And somebody — if not several somebodies — probably lack a seat when the music stops.

For the Democrats, their situation is easier. Let’s say Democrats do win control of the House. Yes, the Democratic Socialists of America and some possible members have reservations about promoting House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to become speaker of the House. But it’s hard to see that Democrats wouldn’t tap him as the first Black speaker in American history. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass., would matriculate to majority leader. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., would likely become majority whip.

However, if Democrats don’t win the House, would their top leaders remain in place? Unclear. Democrats have established high expectations. So one can envision a scenario where rank-and-file Democrats are so exercised about a midterm loss that they call for some new leaders if Democrats fail to flip the House in such a toxic political environment for Republicans.

Then, there’s the Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., does not wield the same political currency with Trump as Johnson. The president has started to make demands of the Senate schedule or what he wants passed. The South Dakota Republican has resisted many of those entreaties. But what happens if Republicans lose control of the Senate?

Many Senate Republicans are apoplectic at how the president treated Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who formerly served as Senate GOP whip. They will rage if the president calls for the dismissal of Thune — in the minority but especially the majority. So far, Trump has kept things in check and not expressed direct displeasure with Thune personally. But one wonders how long that would continue. Especially considering what the president said about former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. – who ushered three Supreme Court nominees to confirmation under dramatic circumstances.

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Who could step into a possible Senate GOP leadership void?

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., is the obvious choice. Barrasso appears closer to the president than Thune — and remains airtight when given the opportunity to criticize Trump. That could work in Barrasso’s favor if there’s an opening.

But leadership elections are always about opportunities. And sometimes those figures with certain bona fides have too much baggage from being on the job for a while. Here are the names to watch if there’s a push for changes inside the GOP leadership ranks: Sens. Katie Britt, R-Ala., John Kennedy, R-La., and Rick Scott, R-Fla.

A former Senate aide, Britt has a solid "inside game" and works well with the administration. Kennedy’s folksy manner makes him a darling of TV appearances. He also spent lots of time on the road campaigning for Senate Republican candidates. Scott ran for majority leader two years ago and lost to Thune and Cornyn in the first round.

Then there are Senate Democrats.

Some have lobbed gobs of criticism at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. His age. His style of politics seems archaic to some. But it’s hard to argue with success. Schumer likely becomes majority leader if Democrats flip the Senate. But things could change if Democrats fail to gain control of the body. Political observers don’t think Democrats have as good a chance at flipping the Senate as the House. So it’s not a done deal that Democrats will want new leadership if Democrats fail to gain control.

The one "known" is the pending candidacy of Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, to succeed retiring Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. However, one could envision a scenario where Schatz becomes the top Senate Democrat if Schumer departs. Like Britt, Schatz is an intense internal operator and understands the subtleties of the Democratic Caucus.

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Others who may have an interest in a leadership post — if they don’t run for president — include Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Chris Murphy, D-Conn., Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.

Booker has credibility for his record-breaking 25-hour speech last year. Murphy appeals to the party as a telegenic spokesperson — and spoke on the floor for nearly 15 hours on gun violence in 2015. Slotkin is a moderate Democrat in a purple state who likes to tangle with the Trump administration — despite picking some of her spots to address the press corps. She’s said that the "old" Senate leadership models are no longer working. Warren commands the support of progressives. And Van Hollen already has the backing of Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

This is a lot to sort out. And it all hinges on the election outcomes. Leadership elections usually take place in mid to late November. It’s possible there could be a delay in leadership elections if it takes a while to sort out which party controls which body of Congress.

But the music is already playing. And everyone is jockeying for a seat because the music is about to stop.

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Ilhan Omar hit with expulsion threat as GOP lawmaker vows to boot her from Congress over DOJ probe

EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Randy Fine, R-Fla., told Fox News Digital that he plans to pursue an effort to expel Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., if the Justice Department finds her guilty of immigration fraud.

Fine, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, made the comments after Fox News Digital reported that a federal court filing identified Omar under the name "Ilhan Nur Said Elmi," also listing "Ilhan Abdullahi Omar" as an alias. The filing has raised questions about Omar’s identity and immigration records but does not establish that she committed fraud.  

"I assume that she’s not a citizen, so we might not even have to do that," Fine said. "You can’t be in Congress if you’re not a citizen of the United States, but if it isn’t automatic, I absolutely will demand expulsion immediately."

ILHAN OMAR IS NOT THE MINNESOTA CONGRESSWOMAN’S 'REAL NAME': SOURCES

Omar is a naturalized U.S. citizen. She was born in Somalia and became a U.S. citizen in 2000. She has denied wrongdoing and called the investigation politically motivated.  

Fine said Democrats would attempt to block any Republican effort to censure or expel Omar.

HOMAN SAYS ILHAN OMAR COULD BE STRIPPED OF NATURALIZATION, DEPORTED IF IMMIGRATION FRAUD IS PROVEN

"I don’t think Democrats think you should have to be American. They don’t believe in borders," Fine said. "They’ve made that clear. They don’t believe in America."

The House has the constitutional authority to expel a member, but doing so requires a two-thirds vote. A criminal investigation or allegation alone does not automatically remove a member from Congress.

Fine also criticized Rep. Delia Ramirez, D-Ill., who in September introduced the Reimagining Safety Act, legislation that would dismantle the Department of Homeland Security and abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, while preserving some of its functions under a new agency, the Department of Community Safety.  

"Look at this bill filed by the congresswoman from Chicago, where she doesn’t believe we should have borders, border protection or the ability to deport anyone," Fine said.

ILHAN OMAR'S TURBULENT WEEK EXPLAINED: THE DUELING PROBES THAT THREW THE SOMALI-BORN PROGRESSIVE INTO CHAOS

Fine also criticized Democrats who have called the Justice Department’s investigation into Omar politically motivated, pointing to the separate inquiry into her financial disclosures. The investigation into her finances began under former President Joe Biden in 2024, a detail that Fine claimed Democrats have intentionally overlooked.

"Democrats don't get held accountable for anything, and they agree on this agenda that is anti-American and anti-citizen," Fine continued.

Omar’s Washington, D.C., residence was searched by Homeland Security Investigations agents on Oct. 12 as part of a federal investigation into possible false statements on immigration and naturalization documents. Federal authorities have also issued grand jury subpoenas to members of Omar’s family and seized her cellphone, according to The Associated Press.  

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Omar’s office did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

Fox News Digital's Peter D'Abrosca contributed to this report.

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Antifa supporter charged with stealing GOP campaign signs in NY race to replace Stefanik

A New York man was arrested after he was allegedly captured on video stealing campaign signs belonging to Republican congressional candidate Anthony Constantino while driving his employer’s vehicle.

Josef Marris was charged with two counts of criminal possession of stolen property, according to the Essex County Sheriff’s Office. He was also fired from East Branch Organics, according to Constantino’s campaign.

Constantino, who is running in New York’s 21st Congressional District, said the alleged thefts were intended to intimidate his supporters.

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"My campaign has lost more than $100,000 to sign theft and vandalism," Constantino told Fox News Digital. "There are now multiple attempts to intimidate my supporters by people who are clearly pro-crime and pro-violence. The media needs to stop pretending this is a both-sides problem."

Constantino’s campaign alleged that Marris carried out the thefts on behalf of Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien. Gendebien’s campaign did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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Constantino also criticized Gendebien in a post on X, writing that the Democrat "is surrounded by FAR LEFT EXTREMISTS."

WE NEED TO TALK TO COMMUNISTS BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH THEY NEED TO LEARN

Marris has described himself as a communist and an Antifa supporter, according to social media posts reviewed by Fox News Digital. In April 2023, he posted an image of the three-arrow symbol, which has historically been associated with several socialist and anti-fascist movements.

The symbol alone does not establish that Marris is a member of Antifa or that Gendebien’s campaign had any connection to the alleged thefts.

THE BLUE WAVE LOOKS REAL UNTIL YOU LOOK A LITTLE CLOSER

The incident comes as Gendebien leads Constantino in a closely watched race to succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., in the 21st Congressional District.

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One of the district's media stations, North Country Public Radio, has flipped the congressional district from "solid" Republican to "likely" Republican.

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