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Why the over 56.5 is the play as Houston visits undefeated Utah in Big 12 action

There are just two ranked matchups today, and one of those was between two SEC big shots, and then this one between two Big 12 teams. The Big 12 hasn’t gotten a ton of love this season, but there are four teams in the top 14 of the national rankings. You could make an argument that this is the best conference in college football. It wouldn’t be a great argument, but you could make it.

Tonight we have Houston taking on Utah in one of the best matchups of the day.

The Houston Cougars come into the game with a 3-1 record and as the 14th-ranked team in the country. Their lone loss this year was against Texas Tech in a very close road game. They lost the game 28-26, clearly putting up a strong fight. It hasn’t been completely smooth sailing for the team, though. They’ve won the past four weeks, beating Georgia Southern by 14 points, then UCF by 10 the following week.

In the past two weeks, the team has taken down Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Against Kansas State, they won by 19 points on the road. Against the Cowboys, they won by just three. In fairness to Houston, they entered the fourth quarter with an 11-point lead over Oklahoma State. The Cowboys put up 14 points in the quarter, but a Houston touchdown gave them a lead Oklahoma State could never get passed.

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The Utah Utes, the worst-named team in football, are 6-0 and the 10th-ranked team in the country. This will be the toughest game they’ve played to date, and it might be one they were already focused. Last week they took on Colorado on the road, but won 27-24. I think Utah might’ve already been thinking about this game, because the Buffaloes aren’t even close to being as good as the Utes. Sometimes teams just have bad games, but that’s okay.

Utah has also beaten Kansas, Iowa State, Utah State, Arkansas, and Idaho this season. The only game that was within one score was the Colorado game. Their next closest game was against Iowa State, also a road game, where they still won by 14 points. At home this season, they’ve won by an average of 33.8 points.

Their team is built around quarterback Devon Dampier. He has completed about 69% of passes this season with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also run for another three scores this season. He does a bit of everything for the team, and Houston will have their hands full trying to stop him.

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This game features two really good offenses. Connor Weigman from the Cougars is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He has 20 touchdown passes this season in seven games. Dampier might be slowed down a bit, but I doubt he can be stopped altogether. I expect the two teams to both challenge all three levels repeatedly. I’m going to take the over 56.5 in this game.

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Ole Miss and Texas collide in massive college football showdown with Arch Manning's season at stake

Last week was honestly one of the craziest weeks of football I’ve ever seen. College football was absolutely wild. It seemed like essentially every team in the top-10 of the national ranks lost. There was upset after upset, and a few teams were on the verge of stumbling as well. Week 7 saw a bunch of top ranked matchups, so naturally there were going to be losses from top teams.

This week doesn’t have nearly as many ranked matchups, but there is a massive one for Ole Miss and Texas.

Ole Miss comes into this game ranked 7th in the nation, and they own a 5-1 record. Their lone loss in the season was to Florida. That came after their biggest win of the season, when they beat LSU. It was one of the most obvious let-down situations in football. In the past two weeks, the Rebels have rebounded. They beat Vanderbilt 52-17 following the loss to Florida. Then last week, they took down Missouri. That was an even more impressive win as they beat the Tigers 31-3.

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The Rebels still own one of the better defenses in the country – even though they gave up 52 to Florida. Their quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss, has been about as good as you could hope for. He has four interceptions on the season, but only one of those came in the loss. He has a rushing touchdown in five of the six Ole Miss games. He has thrown for two or more touchdowns in five of the six games as well. Those are impressive numbers and he has made a big difference for the team. He will have a challenge against a good Texas defense, but the Longhorns have struggled.

Texas is arguably the most disappointing team in the country. They started the season once again with incredibly high expectations, but they fell apart. This is the last remaining game on the schedule that should be very difficult. I’m not trying to make excuses for the Longhorns, because their schedule has been tough, but with their talent, they shouldn’t have lost games, let alone back-to-back games.

OLE MISS DEFENSE TAKES CHARGE, SHUTS DOWN MISSOURI'S HIGH-POWERED RUSHING ATTACK IN 31-3 WIN

In the past two games, they lost both of them 27-24 to Oklahoma and Florida. Neither of those teams were ranked opponents, and both of the losses came in the state of Texas.

It seems almost unfathomable that the team could’ve lost both of these games. A lot of the blame is falling on Arch Manning, but I don’t know that it is fair to give him all the blame. Manning hasn’t been a difference-maker, but I also don’t think he has cost the team games. He has completed about 64% of passes with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. He had two against Oklahoma, so maybe that one was his fault. He has been sacked 17 times in six games, but the blame really should be on the coach for having a poor game plan.

The line on this game has dropped significantly from the opening. Texas was a -9.5 favorite coming into this game when the lines opened. Now they are down to just -3.5. I don’t blame people for taking the points, and still think there is some value.

The Rebels have a good offense, and a solid defense. Still, when a season is on the line, and a team is at home, you kind of have to think they will put their best effort out there. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Steve Sarkisian fired if they lose this game. I do expect Texas to win, so the -160 isn’t a terrible look, but I think this will be a lower scoring game. I’ll back the under 54.5.

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