When governments talk about reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, the discussion usually turns to pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For Asian importers, that is only part of the story. The physical bottleneck is in the Persian Gulf, but much of the economic exposure sits thousands of kilometers to the […]
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Not to be disheartened by adversity or elated by happiness—
that is the mark of a strong spirit and a mighty power.
Niccolò Machiavelli
Should we expect the future to be worse than before? As trivial as this might sound, it all depends on us. No matter how complex and confused, the international environment can be apprehended and adjusted, as well as managed. All the elements forming today’s global palette are obvious, and they existed before. Today, they have manifested themselves in a new quality (with greater intensity) and in a different sequence with everything happening all at once.
The accumulated experience must be treated as a guideline rather than a dogma, including negative experiences, which teach us what we should not do. The last three decades have been a case in point. There can be different ways of evaluating the intentions of those who shaped history in late 20th century, but the results that are visible today demonstrate that this stage in the development of international relations cannot and should not be replicated.
Instead of crowning global political development, this era was marked by the post-WWII model falling into crisis. In itself, this is not a tragedy since no system has ever been nor will be set in stone. Even the most outstanding projects have a limited lifespan.
Will the future be better for those living in today’s world compared to those who preceded them? Not necessarily. After all, future is always a set of probabilities that come to fruition to various degrees. There are specific patterns defining the way developments unfold, but it all depends on how responsible we are in our approach.
The expectation that the “end of history” would address all the challenges and lead us towards a brighter future for the so-called “last man” failed to materialise, which was to be expected.
If becoming the last man is not what people really want, they should realise that charting the future is not the apanage of neither natural forces, nor social development patterns, nor sophisticated robots, nor AI. It is in their hands. Taking responsibility for the future is not a slogan but a behavioural imperative. Over the course of history, humankind has invented so many effective ways of destroying itself ranging from physical annihilation to moral destruction. These are the fruits of progress too. We do not need a future that would be better than the past. We need a future that will not be worse. Overall, having a future is what matters the most.
Authors: Oleg Barabanov, Anton Bespalov, Timofei Bordachev, Fyodor Lukyanov, Andrey Sushentsov, Ivan Timofeev.
You can download the report here.
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