• The Ukrainian army stays in control of front lines, but safety in cities deteriorates.

• Kyiv was on fire again as Russian attacks on cities intensify.
• Rubikon published stats on destroyed Ukrainian drones, decoys being the second most prominent.
• Russia’s defence ministry will not let go of the Armata: it wants to turn it into an air-defence system, drawing ridicule.
• Maps of the day: Sloviansk-Kramatorsk direction; Orikhiv direction, Oleksandrivsk direction, Kupiansk direction.
• Videos of the day: a burning Tu-95MS strategic bomber; a Ukrainian firefighter showed how they extinguished the Academy of Sciences building.

The Ukrainian army stays in control of front lines, but safety in cities deteriorates. The war has reached a stage in which two separate conflicts appear to be taking place simultaneously.

While Ukraine is currently losing the battle in the air and its cities are continually suffering missile and strikes by jet drones, the situation on battlefields is far better.

Last week, Denník N spent time in Ukraine with former chief of the general staff Daniel Zmeko. During the trip, reporters met commanding officers from several brigades and battalions operating from the Izium area to Zaporizhzhia, and all of them said they had the situation under control.

The officers spoke about the accuracy of Russian maps, which they said did not correspond to reality. In some places, Russian soldiers are as far as 20 km from the locations where, according to the Kremlin, they are supposed to be.

Northern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration: This is a specific section of the front where the Ukrainian army has been reporting its advances only very slowly, while Ukrainian analysts have remained silent so as not to disclose anything sensitive. Russian bloggers, by contrast, are depicting the situation more closely to reality.

Yet official Russian maps persist with utterly nonsensical lines. We do not know to what extent this is an effort to deceive domestic and foreign audiences, and to what extent they genuinely believe it in Moscow. It is worth looking at how the regime wants the situation to appear, and what it is really like.

The first map in the overview was produced by the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti and depicts the area around Lyman, on the northern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk direction, as of 29 September. Lyman is shown as occupied in the middle of the map. The map’s author also continues to insist that the Russian army had captured Sviatohirsk — at the tip of the red salient in the centre of the map — and that Russia controls the entire, now non-existent salient with the village of Novoselivka at its centre. Yet Russian outlets Rybar and Two Majors write that fighting is taking place on the Zherebets river around the villages of Terny — on the far right of the map — and Yampil.

The following map is much closer to reality. According to it, the front line roughly follows the Zherebets river, which corresponds to Rybar’s claims.

In the Lyman direction, in Donetsk region, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled three attempts by the russian fascist invaders to advance near the settlements of Ridkodub, Novoselivka and Drobysheve.

1/2 pic.twitter.com/Zs9VdLLnAr

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) September 28, 2026

Rybar’s map looks like this:

Kupiansk direction: The city of Kupiansk is a similar case to Sviatohirsk. Putin declared it captured in August last year. And once the commander-in-chief had declared this, his news agency continued to draw the map as though it were true. Kupiansk is shown as occupied in its centre, but there are further inaccuracies.

For example, the Kremlin agency claims that the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil river south of the city no longer exists. Ukrainians do face major difficulties supplying it, and various analysts have repeatedly warned of an impending disaster, but the Russian map is nevertheless hopelessly inaccurate.

Also note the small town of Borova at the bottom centre. RIA Novosti also shows it as occupied, although this is not the case.

This time, we will compare the Russian agency’s data with a map by Ukrainian analysts at DeepStateUA, because they updated it on Tuesday to reflect a new advance by Ukrainian units north of Kupiansk — again in the centre of the map — near the village of Dvorichne. In recent weeks, they have succeeded in reducing the Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil; the change since the end of August is marked in blue. Borova is again at the bottom centre, while below Kupiansk is the Ukrainian bridgehead that Russia claims does not exist.

Orikhiv: This is one of the places where Ukrainian officers said during reporters’ trip to Ukraine that Russian maps were particularly inaccurate.

The Russian map is again from RIA Novosti and again ignores reality along the entire length of this section of the front. Its main target is the city of Zaporizhzhia, with a population of three quarters of a million, in the centre left, while the small town of Orikhiv, at the bottom centre, is a defensive hub.

Putin’s news agency places soldiers roughly 12 km from the southern edge of Zaporizhzhia; in reality, they are around 24 km away. It shows Orikhiv as occupied and the Russian army advancing from the east towards the village of Novorozivka, north of Orikhiv.

The OSINT project Playfra covers this area in the greatest detail. Its map appears to depict a different war altogether. Everywhere, Russian positions are significantly shifted compared with those shown by RIA Novosti.

The differences have a simple explanation. On the western flank near Zaporizhzhia, the Kremlin agency simply ignores the successful counterattacks carried out by Ukrainians there this year. On the eastern flank, it uncritically accepts every claim by the Russian defence ministry and, with equal lack of scrutiny, considers captured every small village where a Russian soldier raised a flag during a suicidal mission, even several months ago. Although those soldiers have since been killed or captured, RIA Novosti acts as though they still control the village.

Playfra also offers a more detailed view of the current fighting around Orikhiv, drawing on analyses by Ukrainian analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets.

Orikhiv direction.

Factually, no changes. Clearings are conducted constantly, but the Russians also continue to infiltrate: the global situation doesn't change.
The stalemate situation that I had reported some weeks ago, as well as the gray zone, remains both actual as of the… https://t.co/6rau9f7wcK pic.twitter.com/5uIK3K78Bm

— Playfra (@Playfra0) September 28, 2026

Of course, Russians too occasionally notice that they are living in a parallel reality. Most recently, the influential Aleksandr Kharchenko wrote about it:

“Comparing our maps with Ukrainian ones can be shocking. The zones of control differ by dozens of kilometres,” he acknowledged, adding that both sides lie, although he focused specifically on false Russian reports.

He described Russian soldiers who are the first to break into a village as heroes. But, according to him, wars are not won through heroism, but through a functioning system.

“Errors in our maps and information arise because they rely on heroes. Everywhere a Russian soldier is sitting is considered our territory,” Kharchenko argued that this had to change because “our territory is only where a Russian soldier is sitting with food, water and ammunition. This is territory from which we can fight the enemy”.

Kyiv was on fire again as relentless Russian attacks on cities intensify. In the capital, Russians particularly targeted energy infrastructure. “Not a single day has passed since the summer without the enemy attacking energy infrastructure. But this is the first such massive and complex attack since the end of the previous heating season,” Ukrainian PM Serhiy Koretskyi told NV.

In addition to causing serious damage, the attacks on Kyiv and other cities killed at least five residents and injured another 14.

President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that, thanks to the delivery of new surface-to-air missiles, five Russian ballistic missiles had been shot down.

Since last night, emergency services and repair crews have been working to address the aftermath of the Russian strike. It was a difficult attack – nearly 190 attack drones, as well as ballistic missiles. And the main target was energy infrastructure in the capital and the Kyiv… pic.twitter.com/wUNWEUdpTL

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 30, 2026

Rubikon published stats on destroyed Ukrainian drones, decoys being the second most prominent. Ukraine’s response is continuing in parallel with the Russian offensive against cities. But the stats currently weigh against Ukraine.

While the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defence has fallen dramatically since the arrival of Russian jet drones, Russia has successfully shot down Ukrainian ones. For example, the recent large-scale drone raid on Moscow involved several hundred drones — and, according to some sources, more than 1,000 — but only 10 penetrated the airspace above the Russian capital.

In this context, the Russian Rubikon unit published interesting statistics. Although it operates at and near the front, its data for September show that, of 827 Ukrainian drones hit, as many as 247 were Maya-type drones — unmanned decoys intended to deceive Russian air defences. They look very similar to FP-1 attack drones but, unlike them, carry no warhead.

For context, the top two most frequently intercepted Ukrainian UAVs by Russian forces are both decoy drones — the “Maya.” This suggests that Ukraine’s deception strategy is working, as the Ukrainian Defense Forces have increasingly begun deploying decoy UAVs to mislead Russian… https://t.co/NKPvbzm38U

— Oko Gora (@oko_gora_tg) September 29, 2026

Russia’s defence ministry will not let go of the Armata: it wants to turn it into an air-defence system, drawing ridicule. Zvezda News is a media outlet directly controlled by the Russian defence ministry. On Monday evening, it published technical news on the long-forgotten T-14 Armata tank, which Russian propaganda had claimed would revolutionise tank warfare.

Today, it is beyond any doubt that the project is dead and new information confirms this, but its authors presumably intended to convey precisely the opposite.

“Rostec has upgraded the Russian T-14 Armata tank into a short-range air-defence system,” the report stated, citing military expert Oleg Shaladin.

The list of new features appears impressive at first glance. The new version of the Armata has received new electronic equipment; its 125 mm main gun is to be replaced by a 152 mm gun, allowing the tank to fire Kornet anti-tank missiles with a range of 10 km. The new Armata will also be able to use Krasnopol guided artillery shells, which are used by more modern howitzers, while the tank is also to gain the ability to operate as the aforementioned short-range air-defence system.

Further changes have already been made to the project, but even the brief list above makes it clear that the Armata is no longer intended to be a tank, but rather some kind of hybrid capable of fighting everything and nothing at the same time.

Among others, the Russian Telegram channel Military Informant commented on the report, openly mocking it. It said Rostec had mixed together “all the old tales from 10 years ago” in its list of changes, but that in practice “the tank never got beyond parades and training grounds, because it was created for an entirely different war, which ultimately never happened. It became conceptually obsolete from the outset, without even having had the chance to fight”.

Videos of the day

Russia has lost another Tu-95MS strategic bomber. This is the 12th confirmed loss of this type — the Oryx website has not yet updated its figures, so it records only 11. According to available information, the aircraft crashed shortly after taking off from a base in Amur region. Six crew members were reportedly killed, while one survived with injuries. Armed with cruise missiles, the aircraft was probably heading for Olenya air base, from which Russia attacks Ukraine.

A Russian Tu-95MS Bear heavy bomber crashed on takeoff in Amur this evening during a training flight.

The airframe is a total loss, with no survivors reported. pic.twitter.com/tbujV6RVP5

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 29, 2026

Denník N wrote on Tuesday about the attack on the headquarters of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. A video has since emerged from the helmet camera of one of the firefighters involved in the rescue operation.

Helmet-cam footage of Ukrainian firefighters tackling the blaze at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Kyiv on Monday after a Russian drone strike. pic.twitter.com/DqEcz3wPlK

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 30, 2026

• The Ukrainian offensive continues on the northern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk sector of the front.

• Russia has begun targeting data centres in Ukrainian cities.
• Ukrainian drones struck a factory producing missile guidance systems.
• It is no longer discussed as often, but Ukraine’s medium-range campaign is continuing successfully.
• Maps of the day – a map of sites struck in Kyiv; Ukrainian successes around Lyman and Sloviansk.
• Videos of the day – a swarm of Russian drones approaches Kyiv; a Ukrainian drone carrying a flag flew over the occupied town of Hola Prystan; the Ukrainian army used drones to deliver food to residents of occupied Oleshky in Kherson region.

The Ukrainian offensive continues on the northern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk sector of the front. “The situation on the Lyman axis remains difficult. According to reports from the ground, the enemy is trying to push Russian forces beyond the Zherebets River, along which meeting engagements are continuing. Ukrainian forces are active in the Yampil area and on the approaches to Lyman. Heavy fighting is under way to stabilise the line and individual positions,” the Russian Z-channel Two Majors wrote on Monday (28 September) morning.

Last week, the Ukrainian army asked OSINT experts not to help Russia by publishing their analyses. We therefore currently have information mainly from Russian accounts and from what official Ukrainian sources selectively release to the public. By coincidence, several reports concerning this particular battlefield emerged on Monday morning.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was the first to announce, without further details, on Sunday afternoon that there were “important results from our units taking part in Operation Vivaldi on the Lyman axis”.

On Monday morning, the 3rd Army Corps, which is conducting Operation Vivaldi, released details. “The opponent was misled and slept through the real strike,” corps commander Andriy Biletsky said.

The 3rd Army Corps liberated the villages of Nove, Ridkodub, and Katerynivka, and “restored control” over Karpivka and Novomykhailivka. It should be noted that two different timelines intersect at this point.

While Two Majors and other Russian accounts refer to current events, the report by Biletsky’s corps only acknowledges events that took place at the beginning of the summer. The Ukrainian command has only now admitted them and described them as the third phase of Operation Vivaldi. It also reported the capture of 250 Russians.

The Ukrainians also released previously unknown footage from the operation, showing an outdated BTR-60 armoured vehicle loaded with explosives and remotely sent to destroy a fortified Russian position, which it succeeded in doing.

During Operation Vivaldi, Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps converted Soviet-era BTR-60 armored personnel carriers into a massive unmanned explosive vehicles, using them to breach some of the Russian fortified positions during the offensive. https://t.co/1dKZ6TtE3H pic.twitter.com/9SR9FbrZjx

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 28, 2026

The Ukrainians managed to convince the Russians that their target was the village of Shandryholove, to which they sent their reserves for counterattacks. However, the Ukrainians struck in the village of Nove, further east. This is where the footage of the BTR-60 attack was recorded.

French analyst Clément Molin said that Biletsky was referring in this case to events from May and June. According to him, the battlefield map looked like this at the time:

Ukraine 🇺🇦 just announced the 3rd part of "Vivaldi" operation, liberating multiple villages back in May and June

-> This confirms the main push was done in Nove direction
-> Russia didn't retreat in a good order (250 prisoners, more dead) https://t.co/WuemIHSSBC pic.twitter.com/orfn5wm1g6

— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) September 28, 2026

Today, the situation is even worse for the Russians. The Russian military channel Military Informant published two maps which still show the now non-existent salient north of Lyman, but the area without a Russian presence around the city has expanded.

“The Ukrainian army is advancing and pushing the Russian Armed Forces away from the city and surrounding villages. Russian forces, in turn, are trying to bring the situation under control and are conducting counterattacks. It is not difficult to see that the loss of these positions significantly complicates the entire operation towards Sloviansk,” Military Informant wrote.

Importantly, the improvement has not only occurred near Lyman, but also partly east of Sloviansk. “On the Sloviansk axis, Ukrainian forces carried out local counterattacks and pushed Russian forces out of positions east of Mykolaivka, as well as from the areas of Rai-Oleksandrivka and Velykyi Lis. However, the enemy advanced west of Fedorivka Druha towards the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal,” the Ukrainian account Petrenko said.

Rybar also confirmed Ukrainian attacks on the approaches to Sloviansk last week:

Finnish analysts from Black Bird Group recorded the same development. On their map, one Ukrainian advance runs from Sloviansk directly towards Rai-Oleksandrivka, while the other is slightly further north. Mykolaivka is in the centre, Sloviansk to its left and Lyman above it.

Russia has begun targeting data centres in Ukrainian cities. “Today, in Kyiv alone, Russian jet-powered drones ‘destroyed’ two kindergartens and two schools, an ordinary residential building, a car repair shop, several warehouses and telecommunications facilities,” Zelensky wrote on Sunday evening.

The following map shows some of these sites.

Weekend Ukraine map thread for Sunday 27th September 2026

Russian strikes targeting specifically civilian areas continue to increase, leaving many dead. The map below shows some (but not all) of the recent strikes upon Kyiv, which has been pounded this week. Cities will be left… pic.twitter.com/SW2mrzWdwn

— Ukraine Control Map (@UAControlMap) September 27, 2026

The last category in Zelensky’s list of “targets” – telecommunications facilities – is worth noting. More specifically, these are data centres, which Russian drones have begun attacking in an attempt to cause internet coverage outages. They reportedly struck, among other sites, the headquarters of the major telecommunications operator Kyivstar. The Russian Z-channel Veteran’s Notes wrote that nine centres had been struck over the previous week.

The Russian Telegram channel Rybar, which consistently refers to Ukraine as “so-called”, assessed the results as “visible”, but said no “digital collapse” had occurred.

According to Rybar, some services were disrupted, but destroying several servers was insufficient to cause more serious damage. Moreover, digital infrastructure is decentralised and therefore more resilient.

Nevertheless, the Russians expect the new campaign to deliver longer-term results. “In addition to causing economic damage, it allows us to identify the opponent’s weakest points,” Rybar wrote. It expects that this will eventually make it possible to maximise the damage.

Ukrainian drones struck a factory producing missile guidance systems. This happened overnight from Friday to Saturday, when at least five production halls at the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov region were damaged. Satellite imagery also confirms the strikes.

Satellite images from the Sept 26 strike on the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Russia’s Rostov region show hits on 5 workshops across 6 buildings, foundry 022 burning, optics 008 hit twice, assembly 009 at least 3 times, galvanic 010 once, machining 024 twice with a roof… https://t.co/Zm6XEbdFl3 pic.twitter.com/lVLFPWjbY7

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) September 27, 2026

The location of the factory is marked on a map published by the Ukrainian general staff. The Ukrainian army said that it produces optical and electronic systems for guiding artillery, missiles and anti-tank weapons.

⚡️⚡️ Azov Optical and Mechanical Plant hit

During the night of 26th September 2026, units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine struck production facilities at the Azov Optical and Mechanical Plant in Azov, Rostov region, russian federation.

A fire was reported in the foundry… pic.twitter.com/Aat2G1W3Z9

— Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (@GeneralStaffUA) September 26, 2026

The attack was complex. Ukrainian website Militarnyi reported that it involved, among other weapons, Neptune missiles originally designed as anti-ship missiles.

The same source wrote that Russia manufactures at the factory components for Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles, R-74 short-range and R-37M long-range air-to-air missiles, Kh-101, Kh-35U and Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles, Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as guided glide bombs.

It is no longer discussed as often, but Ukraine’s medium-range campaign is continuing successfully. For the third consecutive month, Ukrainian drones have destroyed more than 600 trucks at distances of 35 to 300 km from the front, despite Russian countermeasures. The chart below, by Clément Molin, indicates that 640 Russian logistics vehicles have been destroyed so far in September.

When the campaign began with an effort to isolate Crimea, the Hornet drone was the most frequently mentioned. But even then, medium-range strikes were carried out by several types of drone. Military correspondent Francis Farrell wrote for the Kyiv Independent about one of them, named Zozulya.

“Its old-fashioned silhouette and simple piston engine driving a wooden propeller evoke the first fighters of the world wars. But without a pilot, and controlled from a command room anywhere in Ukraine via satellite coverage, this aircraft also represents the cutting edge of modern drone warfare,” the author wrote about the unmanned aircraft, a photograph of which was already shown by the Ukrainian army in April.

It does indeed show an almost primitive-looking weapon, on which nothing, apart from the panel receiving a Starlink satellite signal, evokes the 21st century:

Re are look at the Ukrainian "Zozulya" model strike drone https://t.co/WWLiIRP9nr pic.twitter.com/zcTUCMf3fA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 25, 2026

Unlike Molin, the analytical account Playfra said that the number of so-called middle strikes had fallen slightly, but that they remained effective because the Russians “still cannot jam Starlink, which is essential if they want to stop Ukrainian medium-range strikes”.

The same source said that the smaller amount of video evidence was due to the Ukrainians no longer publishing it. This does not mean, however, that conclusive footage is not public. Some of it is also published by Russian sources, such as the Russian Telegram channel Military Informant in the images below:

Videos of the day

A swarm of Russian drones near Kyiv. Judging by the sound, these are older versions powered by a piston engine and a pusher propeller.

🇷🇺Shahed swarm near 🇺🇦#Kyiv pic.twitter.com/wsBAnkKBpL

— C4H10FO2P ☠️ (@markito0171) September 28, 2026

A drone carrying a Ukrainian flag flew over the occupied town of Hola Prystan in Kherson region, which had a population of 13,000 before the war. The town lies just 13 km south-west of the better-known Oleshky.

🇺🇦Над окупованою Голою Пристанню Херсонської області до 317-ї річниці міста пролетів український дрон із прапором громади. pic.twitter.com/2TcPlNwOXU

— МОСТ ХЕРСОН (@most_ks_ua) September 26, 2026

According to Ukrainian sources, the humanitarian crisis in Oleshky itself is deepening. Several thousand residents still live in the town and have very limited access to food. The Ukrainian army attempted to improve their situation using drones.

🔴 BREAKING: Ukraine delivered about 4 tons of food to temporarily occupied Oleshky in the Kherson region using drones.

The aid was delivered to 100 locations for residents, despite Russian forces reportedly shooting down aid drones and confiscating food. pic.twitter.com/TmGtZ9r3Bl

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) September 27, 2026