Middle East crude exports recently climbed to their highest levels since the start of the Iran war as more Gulf producers resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz – despite the continued threat of Iranian attacks. Yet oil prices remain stubbornly elevated, suggesting logistical problems are proving as disruptive as outright supply losses.

In 2023, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2028 the world’s oil companies would produce more oil than people wanted to buy. Prices responded to that and similar projections of slowing oil demand, dropping too low to attract investment for new wells and refineries. No forecast anticipated that the Strait of Hormuz, the main […]

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