❌

Normal view

Euro Falls to 17-Month Low as French Debt Fears Return to Markets

6 October 2026 at 08:49

The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2025 on Monday as investors reacted to rising French borrowing costs, political uncertainty and doubts over Paris’s ability to stabilise its public finances before next year’s presidential election.

The euro fell to a 17-month low against the US dollar on Monday as renewed pressure on French government debt raised concern over the fiscal position of the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

The single currency dropped as far as $1.116 during trading, its weakest level since May 2025, before recovering part of the fall. By late Monday it was trading at around $1.121, still lower on the day.

The move followed a sharp sell-off in French government bonds and a widening gap between French and German borrowing costs.

According to market data published on Monday, the spread between French government debt and equivalent German Bunds had approached 160 basis points on Friday, its widest level since the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis in 2011.

The gap subsequently narrowed, but the scale of the movement has drawn attention back to France’s public finances.

French debt is already close to 120 per cent of gross domestic product and is expected to continue rising.

Investors are now assessing whether Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government can secure sufficient parliamentary support for measures intended to put the budget on a more sustainable path.

That challenge is becoming more difficult as France approaches its 2027 presidential election.

Spending cuts and tax increases are politically sensitive even under stable parliamentary conditions. Lecornu’s administration does not have an outright majority in the National Assembly, while opposition parties have challenged several elements of the government’s fiscal programme.

The French economy itself is providing little additional room.

Revised national accounts examined by EU Today showed that the economy failed to grow during the second quarter, while household purchasing power weakened and investment declined.

Slower growth makes deficit reduction harder because tax revenues tend to grow more slowly while welfare and debt-servicing costs remain high.

Bond markets have also changed the calculation.

For much of the period following the eurozone debt crisis, France was able to borrow at historically low rates. Higher interest rates now mean maturing debt has to be refinanced at greater cost.

France’s debt burden is therefore rising at the same time as the price of servicing it increases.

The euro’s fall on Monday shows that those concerns are no longer confined to the French bond market.

Currency traders are also assessing whether fiscal pressure in France could affect confidence in the wider euro area.

The comparison with the sovereign-debt crisis of 2010–12 should nevertheless be treated cautiously.

France remains one of Europe’s largest and most diversified economies, and the eurozone now has institutional mechanisms and European Central Bank instruments that did not exist at the beginning of the earlier crisis.

There is also no indication that France is unable to finance itself.

What markets are pricing is an increase in the risk attached to holding French debt and growing uncertainty over the country’s medium-term fiscal trajectory.

The euro has now fallen for four successive weeks against the dollar and has lost more than three per cent over that period.

US monetary policy is contributing to the movement. Persistent inflation indicators have supported the dollar even as expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve interest-rate increase have declined.

For Europe, however, Monday’s trading was dominated by France.

French fiscal policy has been a domestic political dispute for much of the past year. The widening bond spread and the euro’s fall show that it is increasingly becoming a eurozone market issue.

Why China is missing the big AI rally

2 October 2026 at 10:04

TOKYO – China gave global investors one of 2026’s biggest AI thrills. Yet the country that helped ignite excitement about artificial intelligence is home to one of the worst-performing major stock markets. While AI fever has propelled Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo higher, Chinese shares are stuck in reverse.

So what gives? Several forces, actually. Weak household demand, for one. Consumer spending continues to disappoint, weighing on the earnings potential of mainland internet companies, automakers, and retailers.

To continue reading, please log in to your AT+ Premium account. Not yet a member? Please signup for AT+ Premium monthly membership, AT+ Premium yearly membership or AT+ Premium Access membership.

The post Why China is missing the big AI rally appeared first on Asia Times.

Blame AI for global bond market tremors

1 October 2026 at 06:12

The global bond markets are a sensitive lot. And they’ve been having a particularly tricky time lately. Spooked by high inflation, high interest rates and high levels of government debt across the world, those markets have become less stable over the summer. The prices of government bonds – what governments sell to investors – have gone down. […]

The post Blame AI for global bond market tremors appeared first on Asia Times.

Bond markets aren’t buying the inflation-is-tamed fairy tale

30 September 2026 at 10:17

TOKYO — Anyone betting that inflation risks are fading should look at the US Treasury market. The sharp selloff in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) suggests the world’s biggest bond market is growing less convinced that price pressures are contained. Investors are rethinking the inflation outlook, with implications for Federal Reserve policy, real rates and stock […]

The post Bond markets aren’t buying the inflation-is-tamed fairy tale appeared first on Asia Times.

Tavira custody businesses face scrutiny following regulatory action and disputed civil claim

9 September 2026 at 07:37

Public records show that businesses associated with Tavira have undergone changes to their custody operations following regulatory intervention in Dubai and Monaco. Separately, Tavira Monaco is a defendant in English civil proceedings concerning shares provided as collateral for a stock-backed loan.

The civil allegations remain disputed, and the public judgments reviewed for this article do not establish that Tavira knowingly participated in fraud. Neither Tavira nor its founder, Eliot Goodfellow, is charged in the related United States criminal case.

An international financial group

Tavira was founded in London in 2005 as Tavira Securities. It has since expanded into areas including agency brokerage, asset management, corporate broking and custody.

The group has operated through regulated businesses in several jurisdictions, including the United Kingdom, Monaco, Dubai, Australia and the United States.

Goodfellow remains Tavira Financial Limited’s controlling shareholder. Companies House records state that he owns at least 75 per cent of its shares and voting rights and has the right to appoint or remove directors.

Tavira Financial’s accounts for the year ending 31 March 2025 reported increased revenue alongside a wider annual loss. The accounts also referred to the closure of its contracts-for-difference business and restructuring of its custody activities as the group concentrated on agency brokerage, asset management and corporate broking.

The Salinas civil proceedings

Tavira Monaco is one of six defendants in English civil proceedings brought by Mexican businessman Ricardo Salinas Pliego and Corporacion RBS.

According to the claimants’ case, as summarised in a 2024 High Court judgment, Salinas transferred Grupo Elektra shares worth more than $400 million to two custodians, Weiser Global Capital Markets and Tavira Monaco. The shares were provided as security for loans under a stock-loan agreement concluded in July 2021.

The claimants allege that they entered the transaction after being led to believe that the lender was associated with the prominent American Astor family and that the shares would not be sold unless an event of default occurred.

They further allege that Vladimir Sklarov, who used the name “Gregory Mitchell” in connection with the transaction, caused the shares to be transferred and sold without their authority and used part of the proceeds to fund the loans themselves.

Financial Mail reported in June 2025, citing trading logs reviewed by Salinas’s team, that some of the disputed shares were sold through transactions involving Morgan Stanley, BBVA and Merrill Lynch. The report did not allege that those banks knew of or participated in the alleged fraud. Their appearance in a transaction chain does not, by itself, establish misconduct or knowledge of any underlying dispute.

These remain allegations in continuing civil litigation. In the interlocutory proceedings, the Sklarov defendants maintained that the transaction documents entitled them to trade the collateral and that Salinas’s advisers had been told this. The public decisions reviewed for this article do not amount to a final determination of Tavira Monaco’s liability.

The High Court granted freezing and proprietary injunctions in August 2024. An application by the Sklarov defendants to discharge those injunctions was rejected in October 2024. Later appellate proceedings concerned procedural and evidential issues rather than a final trial of the underlying claims. Tavira Monaco was not involved in the most recent appeal.

Separate US criminal case

A US federal indictment filed on 30 April 2026 and unsealed in May charges Sklarov with conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York alleges that Sklarov operated an entity presented as an established stock-backed lender associated with the Astor family. Prosecutors allege that he used aliases and false representations to obtain control of shares worth approximately $450 million.

Sklarov has not been convicted in that case. The charges are allegations, and he is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.

The publicly available indictment charges Sklarov, not Tavira Financial, Tavira Monaco, Goodfellow, Morgan Stanley, BBVA or Merrill Lynch. The existence of the criminal case should therefore not be taken as establishing criminal conduct by any of those companies or individuals.

Restrictions in Dubai

On 10 September 2024, the Dubai Financial Services Authority imposed restrictions on Tavira Financial Limited’s Dubai branch.

According to the DFSA public register, the firm was restricted from soliciting or conducting specified regulated financial-services business with new clients. It was also restricted from soliciting or onboarding new clients in connection with financial promotions.

The public register does not state the reason for the restrictions and does not connect them to the Salinas litigation.

Tavira’s accounts subsequently referred to a decision to close the Dubai branch’s custody operation and to restructure custody activities across the group. The DFSA register nevertheless continues to list Tavira Financial as an authorised firm, subject to the published restrictions.

Companies House records show that Goodfellow ceased to be a Tavira Financial director on 13 September 2024, three days after the restrictions were imposed. Neither the DFSA entry nor the Companies House filing gives a reason for his departure or establishes that it was connected to the restrictions or the Salinas proceedings.

Monaco sanction suspended pending challenge

Tavira Monaco has also been the subject of regulatory action.

On 12 February 2026, Monaco’s Commission de Contrôle des Activités Financières ordered the withdrawal of Tavira Monaco’s authorisation after upholding four regulatory breaches.

The published CCAF decision found that the company had failed to submit required accounts, activity reports and auditors’ reports within statutory deadlines. It also found that the company had not continuously maintained two people responsible for its strategic direction and management, had lacked a bank account in its own name with a Monaco credit institution since July 2023, and had lacked sufficient human and technical resources since 2023.

Tavira Monaco challenged the decision. On 21 May 2026, the President of Monaco’s Supreme Court suspended its execution. According to the CCAF’s current case notice, Tavira Monaco’s application to annul the decision remains pending.

The withdrawal decision should therefore not be described as presently effective without also reporting the suspension and continuing challenge.

Questions about custody controls

The Dubai restrictions, restructuring of custody operations and Monaco proceedings raise legitimate questions about governance and operational controls. They do not, by themselves, prove any connection to the alleged misconduct in the Salinas transaction.

The English civil case raises separate, disputed questions about the instructions received by Tavira Monaco, the authority it understood the relevant parties to possess, the movement of the collateral and the custody records maintained during the transaction. Those matters remain for determination in the civil proceedings.

Right of reply

EU Reporter sent Tavira Financial, Tavira Monaco and Eliot Goodfellow a detailed summary of the matters in this article and asked for their responses concerning the civil allegations, regulatory decisions, custody restructuring and Goodfellow’s departure from the board. EU Reporter has received no replies from Tavira Financial, Tavira Monaco and Eliot Goodfellow

EU Reporter also asked Morgan Stanley, BBVA and Bank of America, the parent company of Merrill Lynch, whether they could confirm the reported transactions and whether they wished to comment.  Morgan Stanley replied, saying “no comment”. The others,  BBVA and Bank of America, the parent company of Merrill Lynch, have not replied at all.

Oil prices surge as US-Iran strikes heighten supply fears

2 September 2026 at 09:09

NEW YORK: Oil prices climbed in early trading Wednesday, building on the previous session’s sharp gains, as overnight military exchanges between the United States and Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East and revived fears of supply disruptions through a critical global shipping chokepoint. Brent crude futures rose $1.03, or 1.1%, to $95.68 a barrel ... Read more

The post Oil prices surge as US-Iran strikes heighten supply fears appeared first on BOL News.

Fitch assigns Pakistan’s proposed dollar bond ‘B-‘ rating

1 September 2026 at 13:35

KARACHI: Fitch Ratings has assigned a ‘B-‘ rating to Pakistan’s proposed U.S. dollar-denominated bond, with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR4,’ the ratings agency announced. Pakistan plans to use proceeds from the bond for general budgetary and sovereign financing purposes, according to Fitch. The bond rating is aligned with Pakistan’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating, while ... Read more

The post Fitch assigns Pakistan’s proposed dollar bond ‘B-‘ rating appeared first on BOL News.

❌