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Click to see full-size image. (IAI)

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and U.S. firearms manufacturer SIG Sauer have completed a live-fire test of a drone armed with a machine gun, demonstrating a system designed to combine aerial surveillance, target identification and direct fire support for ground forces.

The companies announced the successful test on October 13, saying the FIRE STORM 250 hovered over a simulated battlefield, identified targets using an onboard camera and fired at them from different distances and altitudes. The system demonstrated single-shot and semiautomatic firing modes during the trial.

The FIRE STORM 250 combines an Israeli-made APUS 60 vertical-takeoff-and-landing quadcopter with SIG Sauer’s MICROLIGHT remotely controlled weapon station and M250 light machine gun. The system is designed to operate from forward positions without a runway or dedicated aviation infrastructure.

According to IAI, the drone can remain airborne for up to three hours while carrying 200 rounds of ammunition. Its internal-combustion engine can use multiple fuel types and be refueled in the field, reducing dependence on battery-charging facilities. The complete weapon assembly, including the remotely controlled mount, machine gun and ammunition, weighs about 24 kilograms.

Israel has previously used smaller drones equipped with guns in Gaza, where similar systems have been reported firing directly at people on the ground. In a November 2024 report, NPR documented accounts from Palestinian eyewitnesses who described Israeli forces using armed quadcopters to shoot at individuals in residential areas.

The FIRE STORM 250 is designed to give tactical units persistent aerial observation and an additional source of firepower without the need to deploy a crewed platform.

IAI has identified close air support, border security, suppressive fire, force protection and surveillance among its potential missions. The companies say operators retain control over firing decisions, using real-time imagery and target-tracking information to determine when to engage.

The technology could, however, also be used to target specific individuals, including in targeted killings or assassination operations.

The drone reflects a broader effort to integrate surveillance and weapons on the same unmanned platform, allowing operators to move from detecting a target to engaging it without transferring targeting information to a separate weapon system.

Its development also highlights how techniques associated with smaller armed quadcopters used in Gaza are being incorporated into purpose-built military systems.

Moshe Levy, executive vice president and general manager of IAI’s Military Aircraft Group, said the test demonstrated the potential to integrate sensing, decision-making and action within a single operational system.

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The United States may have only a low-single-digit number of its GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators remaining after expending 14 against Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to an analysis published October 15 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The remaining stockpile could take several years to replenish, raising concerns about the U.S. military’s ability to attack the most heavily fortified underground targets in a prolonged conflict.

The GBU-57, also known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, is a precision-guided conventional bomb designed to penetrate hardened structures and deeply buried facilities before detonating. Weighing approximately 13.6 tons, it carries an explosive charge of about 2.6 tons and measures roughly 6.25 meters long and 80 centimeters in diameter.

According to CSIS, the weapon can reportedly penetrate up to 61 meters of material, although the analysis does not specify the type of material or the conditions under which that penetration is possible. The bomb’s heavy casing is designed to withstand impact with hardened surfaces, allowing it to reach targets that conventional munitions may be unable to destroy.

The massive bomb is typically delivered by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and uses GPS guidance to strike designated targets.

The U.S. first used the GBU-57 in combat during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. Seven B-2 bombers participated in the operation, dropping 14 of the bombs against Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. The broader U.S. operation also targeted the Isfahan nuclear complex.

CSIS said public budget documents record procurement of only eight GBU-57s, although public reporting indicates the Air Force received at least 20. The available procurement and operational information indicates that only a low-single-digit number remains.

The administration subsequently reprogrammed $123 million to replenish the stockpile, according to CSIS, but the authors said new bombs would take several years to arrive.

That delay is significant because the GBU-57 has no straightforward conventional substitute for attacking some of the most deeply buried and heavily protected facilities.

The inventory concern extends beyond a single weapon. CSIS said the U.S. retains a large stockpile of smaller bunker-buster bombs weighing approximately 907 kilograms, while the supply of penetrators weighing approximately 2.27 tons could also come under pressure. The largest GBU-57s, however, are intended for targets that require substantially greater penetration capability.

The analysis cited Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain complex as a potential example of the problem. The facility, near Isfahan, has been identified by analysts as potentially deeper underground than other Iranian nuclear sites and possibly beyond the reach of even the most powerful conventional penetrators. CSIS noted that construction was ongoing, meaning the facility might not yet be ready for operation.

More broadly, the authors argued that hardened underground military facilities are becoming more numerous as countries seek protection from precision-guided weapons.

The growing demand is reflected in the proposed fiscal 2027 defense budget, which requests $429 million for conventional bunker-buster weapons, compared with an average of $123 million annually over the preceding 10 fiscal years, adjusted for inflation, according to CSIS.

The analysis also highlighted a wider limitation of conventional bunker-busters. Because nearly all current U.S. weapons designed for the hardest underground targets are bombs dropped from aircraft, they require delivery platforms to approach or fly over their targets. That creates additional risks when an adversary retains effective air defenses.

As it stands, the U.S. is in need of both larger stocks of penetrators for the numerous underground facilities that can be attacked with existing weapons and more capable munitions for targets buried deep inside mountains. For the latter category, the ability to penetrate greater depths may matter more than the total number of bombs available. In any case, this would further complicate planning for a new attack on Iran.

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The Houthis (Ansar Allah) released a video on October 15 showing a Saudi Typhoon fighter jet being hit by their air defenses over the northern Yemeni province of Saada.

In a statement, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the jet took off from Taif air base and was directly hit by a locally made surface-to-air missile on October 14. He said the warplane was at risk of crashing but did not claim it had been destroyed.

The infrared footage shows the missile’s warhead detonating and damaging the jet’s wing, followed by a visible trail of smoke.

The Typhoon claim adds to a series of Saudi warplanes the Houthis say they have shot down since July, when they said a Saudi strike on Sanaa’s airport ended a period of de-escalation. Their statements have listed 17 individual shootdowns since then, excluding the Typhoon.

Sixteen of the 17 warplanes were combat drones: eight Wing Loong II, three CH-4, three Vestel Karayel and two Bayraktar Akinci. The Wing Loong II and CH-4 are both made by China, while the Karayel and Akinci are made by Turkey. The remaining warplane was a United States-made F-15SA fighter jet.

The Houthis said on September 16 that they had shot down the F-15 over the central province of Marib using a locally made missile and released footage of the wreckage. The video confirmed the warplane’s loss, but Saudi authorities have not publicly acknowledged it. The fate of the pilot and weapon systems officer remains unknown.

A rough estimate based on published unit prices puts the replacement cost of the 17 warplanes at $145 million to $240 million, with the F-15 accounting for more than half of the total.

In a September 11 statement about an offensive on Yemen’s western coast, the Houthis said their forces had carried out 32 operations against Saudi warplanes and shot down nine combat drones.

Most of the claimed shootdowns were reported over the northern province of al-Jawf and the southwestern province of Taiz, with four in each. Marib accounted for three, while al-Bayda in central Yemen, Saada and Hajjah in the northwest had two each.

The Houthis’ air defense operations began on July 3, when they fired anti-aircraft missiles at a formation of Saudi warplanes they said had tried to prevent an Iranian civilian plane carrying more than 200 people from landing at Sanaa airport. They announced their first shootdown, a Wing Loong II over al-Bayda, on July 14, a day after Saudi warplanes struck the airport.

The Houthis announced three shootdowns in July and none in August. Their claims resumed on September 6, followed by 14 more announcements.

The group reported more than 300 Saudi strikes over five days in mid-September. As of October 14, it had put the total number of Saudi strikes and missile attacks since the escalation began at 2,323. The latest claim came on October 16, when the Houthis said they had shot down a Wing Loong II over Marib.

The Houthis operate a range of air defense systems, from man-portable weapons to interceptors and medium-range surface-to-air missiles. The ongoing confrontation points to growing air defense capabilities, particularly in engagements against drones.

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Iran’s army said an oil tanker caught fire in a restricted maritime zone east of the Strait of Hormuz, as attacks on commercial shipping around the strategic waterway reached their highest weekly level since the United States-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic began.

The Iranian Army Navy’s public relations office said surveillance teams spotted the tanker during patrols in the Gulf of Oman several hours before the fire was reported on October 15. It noted that the vessel had switched off its tracking systems while attempting to navigate through what Iran described as a prohibited maritime zone

The announcement followed a record week of reported attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz. BBC Verify‘s analysis of incident reports from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency found that 12 vessels reported being attacked between October 5 and October 11, compared with 10 the previous week.

Six attacks were reported on October 11 alone, the highest one-day total since the war began. Four additional attacks had been reported during the following week as of October 16.

Among the incidents was a drone strike on the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin near Oman’s Sohar Anchorage on October 11, more than 250 kilometers from the strait, according to maritime intelligence firm Vanguard. Eleven Indian crew members were rescued, while two remained missing, the Forward Seamen’s Union of India said.

On October 13, the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after being struck by an unidentified projectile in the strait. All 21 crew members were evacuated safely.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released footage that appeared to show the vessel sinking and said it had been carrying 2,500 containers of contraband while following an unauthorized route.

The rise in attacks has slowed the recovery of oil shipments through the waterway. Data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed that about 12.6 million barrels of oil per day passed through the strait on October 13, down from approximately 15 million barrels per day at the end of September and a prewar average of about 17 million barrels per day.

Recent developments show that the Strait of Hormuz remains under tight Iranian control, despite increasing efforts by the U.S. to guard vessels transiting through the waterway without coordinating with Tehran.

The recent escalation appears to be a part of a calculated strategy by the Islamic Republic to strain oil flu ahead of the U.S. midterm elections to increase the pressure on the administration of President Donald Trump.

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• Europe Becoming Mere ‘Tourist Attraction’ – Polish Foreign Minister

Illustrative image.

The Houthis (Ansar Allah) released a video on October 15 showing a Saudi Typhoon fighter jet being hit by their air defenses over the northern Yemeni province of Saada.

In a statement, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the jet took off from Taif air base and was directly hit by a locally made surface-to-air missile on October 14. He said the warplane was at risk of crashing but did not claim it had been destroyed.

The infrared footage shows the missile’s warhead detonating and damaging the jet’s wing, followed by a visible trail of smoke.

The Typhoon claim adds to a series of Saudi warplanes the Houthis say they have shot down since July, when they said a Saudi strike on Sanaa’s airport ended a period of de-escalation. Their statements have listed 17 individual shootdowns since then, excluding the Typhoon.

Sixteen of the 17 warplanes were combat drones: eight Wing Loong II, three CH-4, three Vestel Karayel and two Bayraktar Akinci. The Wing Loong II and CH-4 are both made by China, while the Karayel and Akinci are made by Turkey. The remaining warplane was a United States-made F-15SA fighter jet.

The Houthis said on September 16 that they had shot down the F-15 over the central province of Marib using a locally made missile and released footage of the wreckage. The video confirmed the warplane’s loss, but Saudi authorities have not publicly acknowledged it. The fate of the pilot and weapon systems officer remains unknown.

A rough estimate based on published unit prices puts the replacement cost of the 17 warplanes at $145 million to $240 million, with the F-15 accounting for more than half of the total.

In a September 11 statement about an offensive on Yemen’s western coast, the Houthis said their forces had carried out 32 operations against Saudi warplanes and shot down nine combat drones.

Most of the claimed shootdowns were reported over the northern province of al-Jawf and the southwestern province of Taiz, with four in each. Marib accounted for three, while al-Bayda in central Yemen, Saada and Hajjah in the northwest had two each.

The Houthis’ air defense operations began on July 3, when they fired anti-aircraft missiles at a formation of Saudi warplanes they said had tried to prevent an Iranian civilian plane carrying more than 200 people from landing at Sanaa airport. They announced their first shootdown, a Wing Loong II over al-Bayda, on July 14, a day after Saudi warplanes struck the airport.

The Houthis announced three shootdowns in July and none in August. Their claims resumed on September 6, followed by 14 more announcements.

The group reported more than 300 Saudi strikes over five days in mid-September. As of October 14, it had put the total number of Saudi strikes and missile attacks since the escalation began at 2,323. The latest claim came on October 16, when the Houthis said they had shot down a Wing Loong II over Marib.

The Houthis operate a range of air defense systems, from man-portable weapons to interceptors and medium-range surface-to-air missiles. The ongoing confrontation points to growing air defense capabilities, particularly in engagements against drones.

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Ukraine has run out of interceptor missiles for its U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, leaving the country more vulnerable to Russian ballistic missile attacks, CNN reported October 15, citing a source familiar with the situation.

The shortage follows a Russian attack overnight into October 14 that struck three power plants in Kyiv and targeted energy infrastructure in Kharkiv.

The source told CNN that “almost all the ballistic missiles from the last strike were not intercepted due to lack of the (interceptor) missiles.” Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air force claimed that it intercepted four Russian ballistic missiles during the attack.

Ukraine has struggled for months to replenish its Patriot interceptor stocks, with President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that the country urgently needed additional supplies.

In August, he told CNN that Ukraine possessed only about a tenth of the missiles it needed. A month later, Zelensky said Ukraine would receive a U.S. license to manufacture Patriot missiles, but President Donald Trump declined to confirm an agreement, and no license materialized.

The shortage comes as Washington increases pressure on Kyiv to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a demand that has become a major point of contention between the two governments.

Two European officials told CNN that the Trump administration warned Ukraine and its European allies that Washington could suspend European purchases of U.S. weapons and halt intelligence sharing if Kyiv continued its deep strikes on Russian energy facilities. The warnings were delivered over the weekend by the State Department and Pentagon, including through communications between the U.S. military and Ukrainian commanders.

Such a suspension of weapons purchases under NATO’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List program could jeopardize future deliveries of Patriot interceptors. Trump has denied that the U.S. stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

Trump has also publicly criticized Zelensky over the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and questioned the Ukrainian president’s approach to negotiations.

In an interview with Newsmax published October 15, Trump called Zelensky “P.T. Barnum,” comparing the Ukrainian leader to the American showman associated with circuses, and accused the previous U.S. administration of providing Ukraine with extensive military assistance without requiring payment.

“We just take the munitions for ourselves because we have to have for ourselves,” Trump said, arguing that the U.S. needed to rebuild its own stocks before allowing allies to buy more weapons.

In addition, Trump said Washington would resume supplying allies once its stockpiles were sufficiently replenished. He also condemned Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries, arguing they were contributing to higher global oil prices.

“I think that’s a disgrace,” he said. “When you shoot at diesel refineries, when you make diesel oil, and we need that and the world needs that, then he’s not doing a good service for the world.”

Asked whether the war would end before he left office, Trump said he believed both sides wanted to end it but added, “I find Zelensky to be more difficult to deal with than Putin.”

Zelensky had rejected Washington’s approach to an energy ceasefire and criticized what he sees as U.S. concessions to Moscow.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Zelensky said he could agree to halt Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure only if Kyiv received additional Patriot interceptors “at a minimum.”

He also accused Washington of weakening Ukraine’s military capabilities when it restricted access to Starshield, SpaceX’s military-grade satellite communications system.

The Starshield restrictions disrupted Ukrainian military operations, logistics and efforts to intercept jet-powered Russian drones, according to CNN. Ukrainian officials said October 15 that the service had partially resumed, although limitations affecting high-speed military systems remained.

SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk said Starshield is controlled by the U.S. government, while a senior U.S. official told CNN that Trump had not requested the restrictions.

All in all, the U.S. appears to be increasing the pressure on Ukraine like never before. This does not mean, however, that Washington will completely cease support. Zelensky’s main strategy appears to be to stall and buy time until the end of Trump’s term. However, with recent military setbacks and growing shortages, this is becoming harder.

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Images of a downed Russian Molniya unmanned aerial vehicle carrying an unidentified device with markings resembling those of satellite developer Bureau 1440 have prompted speculation that Russia may be testing its Rassvet communications system on the battlefield.

Serhii Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian presidential adviser on technological innovation in the armed forces known by the callsign “Flash,” disputed the identification on October 15, saying the object did not appear to be a satellite communications antenna.

“This cannot be a satellite communications antenna because the object is crooked. It was strapped to the body with clamps,” Beskrestnov wrote on Telegram.

Beskrestnov noted that the unidentified device’s actual purpose could be determined only after examining the recovered hardware.

The Molniya-2 has earned a reputation as the AK-47 Kalashnikov of drones due to its basic design and effectiveness. The twin-engine electric drone is made out of cheap materials like plywood, aluminum tubing and plastic. It is said to have a range of 40 kilometers and can carry a payload weighing ten kilograms.

The speculation centers on Rassvet, a low-Earth-orbit broadband satellite network developed by Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 as a domestic alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink.

Russia launched its first operational group of 16 Rassvet satellites in March 2026, followed by a second group placed into orbit in late July. The company plans to begin commercial operations in 2027.

The network could eventually provide Russian forces with an independent source of high-speed communications, reducing their reliance on foreign satellite services.

Dmytro Khmara, co-founder of the Ukrainian aerospace engineering projects Space Cossacks, Lunar Research Service and MySat UA, warned in August that Rassvet could support communications between military units, video transmission to command posts and drone control.

While the presence of the unidentified device does not establish that Rassvet has been integrated into the Molniya, it is very possible that tests are ongoing.

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• UK To Help Ukraine Escalate With More Storm Shadow Missiles
• Russian Forces Concentrate Record Drone Strikes on Kirovohrad Region, Expand Attacks on Industry, Rail, and Airfields

A Storm Shadow missile inside the Royal Air Force museum in London. By Wikimedia user (Rept0n1x).

The United Kingdom is sending Ukraine additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strengthen its long-range strike capabilities ahead of winter, Bloomberg reported on October 15.

The transfer was discussed during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s October 14 visit to London, where he met British Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because the shipment has not been publicly announced. According to the report, British officials oppose restricting Ukraine’s ability to strike targets inside Russia.

Neither the number of missiles being transferred nor their expected delivery date has been disclosed, and the British government declined to comment.

Manufactured by European defense company MBDA, the Storm Shadow is an air-launched cruise missile weighing approximately 1,300 kilograms and measuring 5.1 meters in length. It has a range exceeding 250 kilometers and carries a warhead designed to penetrate hardened targets, including bunkers and fortified infrastructure.

The missile’s navigation combines inertial guidance, GPS and terrain-reference systems, while an infrared seeker helps identify the target during the final stage of flight. Ukraine operates the weapon from modified Soviet-made Su-24 fighter-bombers.

Britain has supplied Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine since 2023, and Ukrainian forces began using them against military targets inside Russia in November 2024. The missile’s broader strategic impact has been limited.

The new shipment highlights the widening divide between London and Washington over how Ukraine should prosecute the conflict.

The Trump administration has pressured Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, reportedly threatening to suspend intelligence sharing if further strikes continued. Zelenskyy has meanwhile condemned Washington’s approach to Russia and signaled that Ukraine would continue refinery attacks.

By replenishing Ukraine’s Storm Shadow stocks, Britain is reinforcing Kyiv’s ability to conduct long-range attacks at a time when the Trump administration is trying to curb them.

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In the Zaporozhye direction Russian troops have advanced almost 13 kilometers, overcome two lines of defense, restored control over Lyubetskoye, Novosoloshino and Nikolskoye, and continue to apply pressure on Orekhov. In the Sumy direction assault units of the “North” grouping have advanced on 19 sectors by up to 800 meters, conducting fighting near Khoten and in the tree lines near Korenok. In the Kharkiv direction Russian units are completing the destruction of the remnants of encircled Ukrainian forces in the north-east of the region, have taken Chyornoye and Nefyodovka, advanced on 25 sectors by more than 1,200 meters and thwarted an attempt to withdraw drone crews of the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. In the Dobropolye direction Russian units have entered the village of Dobropolye, while the Ukrainian side has withdrawn from Matyashevo and destroyed a dam, creating a water obstacle. According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States has six times asked Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries since the meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Zaporozhye direction  

Attempts to retake Dachnoye have brought no success. Russian troops have restored control over previously lost sectors and continue fighting near Filippovka and Ivanovka. In the Orekhov direction Russian troops have regained control of Tsvetkovo and the adjacent section of the railway. The advance continues on several sectors west of previously captured positions. Russian units hold Gulyaypolskoye and the southern part of Novosyolovka. Fighting continues near Orekhov, Malaya Tokmachka and Novodanilovka.

The Orekhov direction remains one of the most dynamic. The Russian side continues intensive fire effect. One of the notable events has been the advance of Russian units by almost 13 kilometres in Zaporozhye region. The troops overcame two lines of defense — one two-tier and the other single-tier. Lyubetskoye, Novosoloshino and Nikolskoye have come under control. The latter is located at a road junction and makes it possible to develop the advance toward Omelnyk from the north. Lyubetskoye and Novosoloshino had previously been temporarily lost.

On the northern sector Russian assault troops are conducting offensive operations near Velikomikhaylovka. On the north-western sector units continue the offensive on a broad front west of Golubkovo, Samoylovka and Svetlaya Dolina. West of Zarnitsa the advance is proceeding with the support of artillery and drone crews near Barvinovka and Vasilkovoye. Assault groups continue to drive wedges into the defense and expand the bridgehead on the western bank of the Verkhnyaya Tersa River.  

Sumy direction  

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance deeper into Sumy region with the support of aviation and artillery. Ukrainian units are offering fierce resistance in defense and are inserting new SSO groups onto the direction. Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews have struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Krasnopolye, Stepnoye, Barilovka, Pervomayskoye and Malaya Slobodka.

In Sumy district assault groups of Russian units have advanced on 19 sectors. Overall progress in a single day reached up to 800 meters. In Shostka district Russian troops are advancing through the tree lines near Korenok. Thus pressure is maintained on Ukrainian units, which are forced to strengthen their defenses and transfer additional forces.  

Kharkiv direction  

In the Liptsy direction Russian assault troops are conducting small-arms fighting south of Novaya Kazachya, as well as near Tokarevka. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions assault groups of Russian units have advanced near Gogino, Chyornoye and Nefyodovka. Overall progress on 25 sectors exceeded 1,200 meters.

In Kharkiv region Russian units continue successful offensive operations, tightening the ring of encirclement and expanding the zone of control. Assault troops have advanced up to 1.2 kilometers into the depth of the Ukrainian defense. As a result of active and resolute actions inside the ring of encirclement Russian units have taken full control of Chyornoye and Nefyodovka. Clearance is under way in these settlements. Fierce fighting continues for the capturing of Nikolayevka and Varvarovka, where blocked Ukrainian units are offering resistance. On the eastern flank of the cauldron the systematic destruction of the remnants of the encircled Ukrainian forces continues. Fighting also continues near Prikolotnoye, Kotovka and Gogino. 

Dobropolye direction  

Russian units have entered the village of Dobropolye, where fighting continues. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Matyashevo and destroyed a dam by an air strike. According to incoming information, this was done in order to create a water obstacle on the path of further advance toward the town of Dobropolye.

Assault groups of the 51st Army advanced in the north-western part of Dobropolye. Assault units of the marine infantry grouping continued the offensive in the western part of the settlement. Russian troops are gradually enveloping Sergeyevka from the north and south. New positions are being captured in the village. Clearance of the southern outskirts of Dobropolye is under way. Units of the “Centre” grouping are developing the offensive on the Sergeyevka–Gulevo line. Consolidation on this sector will make it possible to secure supply routes in the area of Grishino.

While the battle for Dobropolye continues, the Ukrainian side is relying on Novovodyanoye, Zolotoy Kolodets and Rubezhnoye. It is attempting to cut off the salient and break through to the encircled forces. This is, however, a forced strike, because the Ukrainian side overlooked the encirclement. It is reacting according to its capabilities rather than according to a serious plan. Russian fighters on the ground said in advance: we know that Ukrainian units will go through Zolotoy Kolodets and Novovodyanoye.

Conclusion  

In the Sumy direction fighting remains positional in character; in the Kharkiv direction clearance of the Volchansk cauldron is nearing completion; in the Dobropolye direction the greater part of the town is under control; on the Zaporozhye front the advance continues after the restoration of control over a number of key settlements. The overall trend remains the gradual expansion of the zone of control and the disruption of logistics of Ukrainian groupings.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States has six times asked Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries since the meeting between U.S. leader Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. Trump’s attitude toward Zelensky became increasingly negative against the background of the continuing Ukrainian attacks. Trump repeatedly expressed public dissatisfaction with Zelensky’s unwillingness to reach peace agreements and his reluctance to stop strikes on Russian refineries. According to Trump, Ukraine needs a new leader capable of reaching an agreement with Russia. This statement was made after an agreement was reached during Trump’s conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 9 October on supplies of diesel fuel from Russia to the United States and to the world market. Zelensky, for his part, stated that the alleged ban on strikes against Russian refineries was over.  

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• The Yemeni army (AnsarAllah) air defenses targeted a Saudi Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet over Saada;
• The Yemeni army advanced in the highlands south of Taiz city, capturing Al-Najadah, Al-Awat, and Al-Qab’a;
• The Yemeni army (AnsarAllah) struck Saudi positions around Al-Ma’ashiq Palace in Aden, with several short-range ballistic missiles.

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Click to see full-size image. (Korean Central News Agency)

North Korea said on October 15 it had test-fired two types of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles off its east coast a day earlier, in a trial aimed at assessing its underwater weapons systems and the reliability of its military deterrent.

The Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, reported that the tests were designed to examine the readiness of the country’s underwater combat systems and improve the navy’s ability to carry out strategic missions. It said the test “did not have any adverse impact on the security of neighboring countries.”

KCNA did not identify the missiles or disclose their ranges, flight times or intended targets. The designation “strategic” suggests a role in North Korea’s nuclear deterrent, although Pyongyang did not say whether the tests involved nuclear warheads.

Click to see full-size image. (Korean Central News Agency)

South Korea’s military said it had monitored the launches using multiple surveillance assets, tracking the missiles from before launch through the end of their flights.

Capt. Jang Do-young, a spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the military assessed that one missile had been fired from a vertical launch system and the other from a torpedo tube, according to Yonhap News Agency.

South Korean analysts and international news reports identified the vessel shown in the images as the Hero Kim Kun Ok, a roughly 3,000-ton submarine unveiled by North Korea in September 2023. Pyongyang presented it as its first tactical nuclear attack submarine, claiming it could launch nuclear weapons from underwater.

If the identification is correct, the October 14 launches would be the submarine’s first publicly reported live weapons tests.

North Korea previously announced submarine-launched cruise missile tests in January 2024, when it said two Pulhwasal-3-31 missiles had been fired from the smaller, approximately 2,000-ton 8.24 Yongung submarine. That vessel has been used in earlier underwater weapons demonstrations.

The latest test was overseen by Kim Jong-sik, a member of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission, Missile Administration chief Jang Chang-ha and naval underwater weapons engineers, KCNA reported. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was not reported to have attended.

Shin Jong-woo, secretary-general of South Korea’s Korea Defence and Security Forum, said the latest launches showed that “combat system tests for operational deployment are under way,” according to Reuters.

The commander added that North Korea was likely to test a submarine-launched ballistic missile from the vessel before long.

The tests followed North Korea’s launch of tactical ballistic missiles toward the East Sea on October 12 and a series of other weapons demonstrations in recent weeks. Pyongyang has also highlighted its expanding arsenal at a newly opened defense museum, including missiles designed to extend its potential reach against the United States.

The submarine tests fit into Kim’s broader effort to expand the country’s naval capabilities and diversify the platforms from which it could use nuclear weapons.

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Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) said on October 15 they had struck a military operations headquarters run by Saudi officers and weapons depots inside Maashiq Palace in the southern port city of Aden, which is occupied by Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

In a statement, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the strike was part of the group’s declared policy of targeting Saudi military concentrations.

“Any Saudi military presence is considered a legitimate target for our forces wherever it may be,” Saree said.

At least six explosions were heard near the palace, witnesses told The Associated Press. A security official said two blasts occurred on a hill near the complex and two others close to its security gate, prompting residents to flee the area.

Two Yemeni government officials separately told Reuters that the Houthis had fired several missiles at the palace complex.

A Yemeni government official said government leaders who were in Aden were safe. Many senior officials are based outside the country, mainly in Saudi Arabia. The extent of damage to the reported targets and any casualties were not immediately established.

The strike comes amid an intensifying exchange of strikes between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition. In recent days, the group has targeted Saudi airports and oil infrastructure, including Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport and an administrative building at Saudi Aramco’s complex in Dhahran.

The coalition, which backs Yemen’s internationally recognized government, struck fuel facilities in Houthi-held areas on October 13, accusing the group of using civilian infrastructure to support its missile and drone operations.

The attack on Maashiq Palace marks a rare strike near the government’s main seat in Aden, extending the confrontation into southern Yemen as the Houthis pursue their campaign against Saudi military and strategic targets.

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Iran has changed its tactics for targeting ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian and U.S. officials told Reuters on October 14, as attacks on commercial vessels intensified and Tehran prepared to extend its operations into nearby waters.

Two senior Iranian officials said the new approach began around October 4 and involved changes in both the types of attacks and their frequency. The officials also revealed the strategy had been coordinated at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership.

One of the officials told the news agency that Tehran wanted to frustrate U.S. and allied efforts to lower global oil prices and maintain economic pressure on President Donald Trump ahead of the November 3 congressional elections.

A U.S. military official identified one operational change, saying Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had begun using unarmed spotters in small boats to locate potential targets and relay their positions to their command. The shift to this tactic followed U.S. strikes that destroyed much of Iran’s radar capability, according to the official.

The official said U.S. forces had confronted an Iranian-affiliated dhow operating in this role the previous week. After directing its occupants to abandon the vessel, U.S. forces destroyed it. No casualties were reported.

Iran also intends to extend its maritime operations beyond the strait into the Gulf of Oman and waters farther afield, including areas off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the Iranian officials told Reuters.

Maritime-security sources reviewing reports from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center and regional security companies said attacks in waters off the two Gulf states suggested the expansion was already underway.

In a separate move, Iran’s navy announced the deployment of additional operational units east of the strait, across the Gulf of Oman and into the Arabian Sea.

Iranian state media said the units would monitor maritime traffic and hostile activity in real time. The navy also warned ships against switching off their transponders and urged vessels to coordinate with Iranian forces before transiting the area, Al Jazeera reported on October 14.

The tactical changes have coincided with a sharp increase in attacks. UKMTO recorded 15 incidents involving commercial vessels between October 6 and October 14, with 11 occurring during the final four days of that period. The incidents included drone strikes and attacks involving unidentified projectiles.

Two cargo vessels sank near the strait on October 14. The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after being hit by an unidentified projectile the previous day, while all 21 crew members were evacuated, Reuters reported.

The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao also sank after being struck by a projectile on September 23. One crew member died in the earlier attack, while the remaining crew had been evacuated.

Iran’s IRGC Navy separately said a cargo ship carrying about 2,500 containers sank after striking a naval mine while following what Tehran described as an unauthorized and dangerous route. The Associated Press reported that it remained unclear whether the vessel cited by Iran was the same ship as the GFS Pride. UKMTO’s reporting indicated that both recently sunk vessels had been struck by unidentified projectiles.

The attacks have disrupted energy shipments through the waterway. Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler cited by Al Jazeera showed that about 2.9 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on October 11, down from nearly 20.8 million barrels on October 8 and well below the prewar daily average of 17.1 million barrels.

The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. Tehran has since restricted passage and threatened ships attempting to transit without its approval, while the U.S. Navy has guided commercial vessels along a route closer to Oman’s coast.

Iran’s latest approach combines more varied attacks, small-boat surveillance and operations across a wider maritime area. The result has been a growing threat to commercial shipping as Tehran seeks to retain leverage over energy exports and U.S. policy.

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Illustrative image. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Airman 1st Class Michael Sanders)

The Houthis (Ansar Allah) announced on October 15 that their air defenses had hit a Saudi Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet over the Yemeni province of Saada.

In a statement, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said that the warplane had taken off from Taif Air Base in western Saudi Arabia before being engaged over northern Yemen.

“It was directly hit and is at risk of crashing,” Saree added.

The reported engagement follows the Houthis’ September 16 downing of a Saudi F-15SA fighter jet over the central province of Marib. At the time, the group said it used a locally made surface-to-air missile, without elaborating. Saudi Arabia is yet to acknowledge the loss. The fate of the pilot and the weapons system officer also remain unknown.

The fighter incidents have come alongside four Houthi-reported shootdowns of combat drones this month so far. On October 5, the group said it downed a Chinese-made Wing Loong II over the southwestern province of Taiz.

Two days later, it announced the destruction of a CH-4 over the northern province of Al-Jawf, followed by a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akinci over Taiz on October 8. On October 13, Houthi forces reported another Wing Loong II shootdown over Saada.

The Houthis possess fairly capable air defenses, ranging from man-portable systems to interceptors and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles.

The recent engagements indicate the group’s air defense capabilities are growing, which would further complicate Saudi aerial operations over Yemen.

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Bulgarian authorities are investigating a reported arson attack at a Starlink satellite communications station near Sofia, Prime Minister Rumen Radev said on October 14.

Ivaylo Mirchev, an opposition lawmaker from the Yes, Bulgaria party, revealed two days earlier that two masked men had set fire to 11 of the facility’s 17 antennas over the weekend. He published a video of the incident on Facebook and raised the case in Parliament, where he called for an explanation of the government’s response.

Radev described the investigation as “extremely intensive” and said Bulgarian authorities were working with partner services, without identifying suspects or discussing a possible motive.

Plamen Tonchev, head of Bulgaria’s State Agency for National Security, said the site had been scheduled for expansion, and part of its perimeter fencing had been removed, potentially making it easier for intruders to enter.

The facility, identified as the Plana satellite communications station about 20 kilometers south of Sofia, provides service used by the Ukrainian military.

Starlink has become an important component of Ukraine’s battlefield communications, allowing military personnel to maintain connectivity and coordinate operations. Bulgarian authorities have not disclosed whether the damaged antennas were directly carrying military traffic or whether the fire disrupted Ukrainian operations.

The incident follows an arson attack on a Starlink station in Wola Krobowska, about 40 kilometers south of Warsaw, on September 23.

Two Turkish nationals were arrested in Germany in connection with that arson case, Polish officials said on October 12. A third was reportedly apprehended the next day.

Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s minister overseeing intelligence services, accused Russian intelligence services of organizing the attack, while Prime Minister Donald Tusk described it as an act of “hybrid warfare.”

Mirchev cited the Polish case as a parallel to the incident near Sofia. However, Bulgarian authorities have not publicly attributed the fire to Russia, and no evidence has established that the two attacks were coordinated.

The incidents have drawn attention to the vulnerability of ground infrastructure supporting a satellite network that has become strategically important to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia.

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• Russian Army Expands Zone of Control Near Kharkov
• Russian Strikes Hit Ukraine’s Energy Grid Again, Over 1,400 Drones Downed Over Russia

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United States President Donald Trump said on October 13 he may ask Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help address Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, despite Ankara’s stated refusal to participate in offensive military operations against the Yemeni group.

“I might do it,” Trump told reporters before leaving for a campaign trip to Alaska. “President Erdogan, I think, would do as I ask.”

Trump did not specify what role he envisioned for Turkey or say whether Washington had formally approached Ankara on the matter.

His remarks came as Saudi Arabia faced a renewed wave of Houthi missile and drone attacks, including a strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, and another that hit Aramco headquarters in Dhahran.

Turkey is a signatory to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, established in August with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The agreement treats an armed attack on one member as an attack on all, but Ankara has drawn a distinction between defending its partners and joining their offensive campaigns.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan explicitly ruled out the latter on October 8, stressing that Ankara will aid in defense only.

“But this is a defensive agreement. When a country party to the pact comes under attack, you stand by it in its defense. This is not an offensive agreement. Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory,” he said at a news conference in Ankara, according to Reuters.

Turkey has opted to provide Saudi Arabia with limited defensive and technical assistance. Reuters reported October 7, citing officials, that the support included military equipment, intelligence sharing, air defense capabilities, logistical assistance and help with surveillance and defensive planning.

Trump’s potential request is unlikely to override these established limits. The Mecca agreement had yet to receive Turkish parliamentary ratification as of October15, after Erdogan said three days earlier that it would be submitted to lawmakers soon.

Article 92 of Turkey’s constitution generally places the authority to approve the deployment of Turkish armed forces abroad with the Grand National Assembly, subject to exceptions under applicable international treaties. A direct combat role would therefore face a significant legal and political hurdle.

Even if Ankara eventually approved an intervention, there is little reason to assume Turkish forces could achieve a decisive outcome where Saudi Arabia and its other allies have failed.

The Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen in March 2015 to support the internationally recognized government and reverse the Houthi takeover of Sanaa. More than 11 years later, the Houthis still control the capital and extensive territory in northern Yemen, despite years of military operations by Saudi Arabia and its allies.

A Turkish offensive would introduce another capable military into the conflict, but it would not resolve the underlying challenge of defeating an entrenched opponent that has withstood more than a decade of regional military pressure, including intense bombing campaigns
by the U.S. and Israel.

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