Never before have so many Brazilians held a job, but never have so many families — eight out of 10 — been strangled by debt. Paying it off consumes a third of household budgets in Latin America’s largest economy. And it is there that much of the discontent weighing on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s electoral prospects is born. His 2022 promise that, with him in power, the glorious days of the picanha, the grilled meat, the Sunday barbecue, would return remains a dream for most. For his compatriots, the cost of living is too high. Paying the bills is often impossible, even though the president insists unemployment is at a historic low (5.3%), inequality is falling, and inflation is under control.

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Asked by reporters about Brazil’s upcoming presidential election, to be held on Sunday amid heightened tension between Washington and the leftist government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he is following it “very closely.”

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