Russia's seaborne exports of refined oil products rose to a three-month high in September, but the growth came from cheaper fuel oil and naphtha as diesel shipments fell to their lowest in more than a decade, Bloomberg reported, citing Vortexa data. Russia kept diesel at home after Ukrainian refinery strikes and paid oil companies to supply its pumps, while high crude prices lifted its crude export earnings.
During the ongoing deep-strike campaign, Ukraine's long-range drones have knocked out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity, Kyiv says, and Russia's budget oil revenues are falling even as it raises war spending. High global crude prices are softening that blow.
Total seaborne product exports reached about 1.17 million barrels a day in September. Fuel oil shipments rose 6% to about 613,000 barrels a day, the highest since April. Naphtha, a feedstock for petrochemicals, jumped 35% to 363,000 barrels a day. Exports of refinery feedstocks, including vacuum gasoil, rose to about 32,000 barrels a day, according to Bloomberg.
The trade has moved north. Almost 80% of fuel oil cargoes left from Baltic ports, and naphtha loadings there rose almost 50% as Ukrainian attacks disrupted Black Sea infrastructure. In September, Ukraine reported hitting an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia's main Black Sea oil port—one in a string of attacks on Russia's Black Sea ports and oil sites.
Diesel and gasoil exports fell 28% to 144,000 barrels a day, the lowest monthly volume in Vortexa data going back more than a decade. Russia has restricted diesel exports to protect domestic supply after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. Drones kept hitting them into October, from a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd to Gazprom's Salavat complex in Bashkortostan.
In September, Russia paid oil companies the biggest subsidy in more than four years to keep road fuel on the domestic market. It also imported about 350,000 tonnes of motor fuel by sea, mostly gasoline from India, Morocco, and Türkiye, Reuters calculations showed. Officials are considering letting some producers resume diesel exports in October to avoid overstocking, according to Interfax.
The diesel squeeze has reached the White House. US President Donald Trump stated on 30 September that diesel was hurt "not by the Middle East, but by what's going on in Russia, because those diesel refineries are being knocked out at a pretty alarming rate."
Russia's crude exports reached about 3.99 million barrels a day in the week to 27 September, and the estimated value of its seaborne crude shipments neared its highest since the full-scale invasion began, Bloomberg reported. Brent crude traded at about $102.60 a barrel on 9 October, according to Trading Economics data.
European fuel markets remained under pressure on Friday, 9 October, despite a decline in international oil prices following comments by President Donald Trump suggesting that Washington would refrain from further military strikes against Iran before the November midterm elections.
Brent crude fell by $1.37 to $102.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate declined by $1.09 to $90.40. The retreat reflected expectations of renewed diplomatic negotiations with Tehran, although oil prices remained considerably higher than before the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the latest oil-market developments, Iran is examining an American proposal that could allow the strategic waterway to reopen within a week. There is, however, no confirmed agreement on restoring maritime traffic.
For the European Union, the immediate concern extends beyond crude oil prices. A prolonged shortage of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel and aviation fuel, is threatening to increase costs across transport, agriculture, manufacturing and logistics.
The European Commission has already established a closer system of coordination with member states and the International Energy Agency to address the pressure on fuel markets.
At an Energy Union Task Force meeting on 2 October, officials confirmed that European diesel supplies remained stable, although prices continued to reflect severe constraints in global markets.
The Commission’s assessment distinguished between the physical availability of fuel and the cost of obtaining it. European refineries have maintained high production levels, while importers have sought alternative suppliers to replace disrupted shipments from the Middle East.
A further assessment of European oil supplies published on 29 September found that refineries were operating close to maximum capacity and that stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub remained below their five-year average.
Although emergency reserves remained available, officials warned that continuing disruption could place additional pressure on the market during autumn and winter.
The next scheduled meeting of the EU Oil Coordination Group is 15 October, although the Commission has indicated that it could convene an earlier meeting if conditions deteriorate.
The international response has moved beyond the coordination of existing reserves.
On 2 October, G7 leaders agreed to implement a coordinated release of 100 million barrels through the International Energy Agency framework over four months.
The agreement includes an accelerated release of diesel during the first 20 days, reflecting the difficulties facing markets for refined fuel.
The G7 also called for improved coordination of refinery maintenance schedules and higher utilisation rates where possible, to prevent temporary shutdowns from aggravating shortages.
These measures follow an earlier international commitment, announced in March, to make approximately 400 million barrels of oil available to the market.
Questions remain over how the October measures will be accounted for alongside the March commitments. During a Commission briefing on 7 October, officials said that the International Energy Agency would oversee the process and that Brussels would seek a coordinated European position.
The Commission did not provide figures showing how much oil individual EU countries had released.
Diesel has become particularly important to the European response because it remains central to commercial road transport, agricultural machinery and parts of the industrial economy.
Even when crude oil prices fall, the price of diesel may remain elevated if refining capacity is constrained or supplies of finished products are insufficient.
European refiners cannot automatically compensate for shortages elsewhere. Their capacity depends on crude oil availability, technical configurations, maintenance schedules and the profitability of different refined products.
The situation also complicates efforts to contain inflation. Higher freight charges eventually affect the cost of food, construction materials and other goods transported across the European single market.
Member states are therefore considering how to protect vulnerable consumers without introducing measures that would distort fuel distribution or encourage additional consumption.
The Commission has not declared a general shortage of diesel within the EU, and the available evidence does not support suggestions that European fuel supplies are close to exhaustion.
Nevertheless, the current pressure demonstrates the limits of relying on emergency reserves when disruption affects both international shipping and the refining system.
The prospect of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran provided some relief to markets on Friday.
However, the physical restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will depend on security conditions, commercial insurance arrangements and the willingness of shipping companies to resume normal operations.
Oil prices may respond immediately to political statements, but restoring established supply routes and rebuilding commercial confidence can take considerably longer.
For European governments, the forthcoming decisions will concern the management of emergency stocks, refinery production and the costs imposed on consumers and businesses.
Even if negotiations between the United States and Iran produce a temporary reduction in hostilities, the European diesel market will remain exposed until the disruption to international energy trade is substantially reduced.
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