Russia would deliver 2.25 million barrels in October, 3.75 million in November and 7.5 million immediately thereafter.

On Friday, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russia’s export of diesel in a bid to ease a global fuel shortage and curb soaring domestic prices, but analysts warn that limited supplies and damage to Russian refineries could possibly blunt the impact.

RELATED:

Trump’s ‘Energy Ceasefire’ Claim Raise Tensions with Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a phone call. On the same day, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a temporary general license, authorizing Russian diesel transactions until April 7, 2027.

Under the phased schedule, Russia would deliver 2.25 million barrels in October, 3.75 million in November and 7.5 million “immediately thereafter,” depending on the condition of Russian refineries. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed the volumes.

U.S. diesel averaged 6.28 dollars a gallon on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association, down from a record 6.53 dollars on Sept. 22, but still far above 3.68 dollars a year earlier, and up about 70 percent since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began on Feb. 28.

A Pew Research Center survey released Oct. 8 found that 74 percent of Americans were “very concerned” about energy prices, and 84 percent of registered voters said the economy was “very important” to their vote in the Nov. 3 mid-term elections.

BREAKING: 🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦 Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine would attack Russian ships carrying diesel to the US.

Zelenskyy indicated that Trump needs to strike a deal with him if he wants Ukraine to refrain from attacking the oil tankers transporting diesel to the US. pic.twitter.com/UbYb8fy0MX

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 12, 2026

On Saturday, the Russian government partially lifted its diesel export ban with immediate effect, allowing 500,000 tons to reach the global market, with Novak saying domestic supplies would not be affected.

However, analysts said that the U.S. relief on sanctions on Russian diesel is unlikely to help tame domestic diesel prices, which hover at close to record-high levels and threaten Republican control of Congress in the upcoming elections.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the world is short about 1.6 million barrels of diesel daily. Even if all 36 million barrels Russia promised arrived at once, they would plug the gap for only about three weeks. The October release alone is roughly 10 percent of what Russia exported in a typical month before Ukrainian drone strikes battered its refineries, according to analysts.

“It’s kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic,” a report by The Seattle Times quoted Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation as saying. Russian diesel sent to the United States simply means that other buyers must look elsewhere. At best, he said, Americans might see “a tiny dip in prices locally in places like the New York-New Jersey area.”

“It’s clearly not a fix, but another stream to aid a very tight diesel market,” Jim Mitchell, director of oil trading analytics at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, was quoted as saying by Reuters.

“The biggest concern is the refiners being able to do it,” Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, a Canadian multinational investment bank and financial services provider, was quoted as saying by the Business Times.

𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐓𝐀𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐒 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐌𝐏: 𝐈𝐅 𝐇𝐎𝐑𝐌𝐔𝐙 𝐈𝐒 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐘 𝐎𝐏𝐄𝐍, 𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐃𝐈𝐃 𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐀 𝐁𝐄𝐆 𝐑𝐔𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐀 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐃𝐈𝐄𝐒𝐄𝐋?

Iran is not backing down an inch in the Strait of Hormuz standoff, even as the Trump administration insists the chokepoint 𝐧𝐨… pic.twitter.com/WehahJzQJa

— M.A. Rothman (@MichaelARothman) October 12, 2026

The November shipment amounts to roughly one day of U.S. consumption, noted Chris Kennedy, lead for Economic Statecraft at Bloomberg Economics. He questioned whether Moscow can deliver given refinery damage, logistics and legal hurdles, with the largest later tranches explicitly conditioned on the state of Russia’s refineries.

To make matters worse, Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico has now shut down about 1.3 million barrels a day of U.S. oil production, which equals nearly 63 percent of total U.S. production in the gulf.

The Iran war also continues to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20 percent of global oil and fuel shipments before the war.

As part of an accelerated IEA emergency-stock release, Germany will release up to 15 million barrels of diesel, heating oil and crude, while France has committed 10 million barrels of diesel. Moreover, Italy says it has completed its 10 million-barrel commitment.

The Russian barrels address the shortage from the output side, while the stock releases address it from the inventory side. However, analysts say neither is large enough to repair the market on its own.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, predicted that the deal could result in a short-term reduction of 10 to 20 cents for a gallon of diesel. However, he said, it would be “difficult to achieve” Trump’s import goals.

teleSUR/ JF

Source: Xinhua

France faces growing pressure from eurozone governments and financial markets to secure its 2027 budget as borrowing costs climb towards levels not seen for more than two decades, raising questions about Paris’s ability to restore control over its public finances.

France is coming under increasingly direct pressure from its eurozone partners to resolve the political dispute surrounding its 2027 budget, with European finance ministers warning that continued uncertainty threatens confidence in the country’s public finances.

The warning follows a sharp increase in French government borrowing costs. Yields on ten-year sovereign bonds have risen by nearly 80 basis points since September, reaching levels last recorded in 2002. Investors are demanding higher returns to finance a government whose debt continues to increase while its capacity to impose spending restraint remains constrained by parliamentary divisions.

At the Eurogroup’s October discussions, finance ministers and European Central Bank officials pressed Paris to demonstrate that it can adopt a credible budget and comply with its commitments under the EU’s fiscal framework.

France’s difficulties have implications beyond its domestic politics. As the eurozone’s second-largest economy, France occupies a position fundamentally different from smaller countries that experienced sovereign debt crises during the previous decade.

Borrowing costs expose political weakness

The French government expects to borrow approximately €340 billion in 2027, making continued access to financial markets at sustainable rates an essential element of its fiscal strategy.

That financing requirement reflects both the need to cover the annual deficit and to refinance existing debt as government securities mature.

France’s public debt is already approaching 120 per cent of gross domestic product. As EU Today previously reported, official projections indicated that the debt ratio could reach 121.7 per cent in 2027, up from 115.7 per cent at the end of 2025.

The latest increase in yields adds another complication. Higher interest costs do not affect the entire stock of debt immediately because much of it was issued at earlier rates. They do, however, increase the cost of new borrowing and refinancing, progressively reducing the money available for other government commitments.

France also faces a difficult political timetable. With the presidential election approaching in 2027, parties are reluctant to accept measures involving spending reductions, higher taxation or changes to public services.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government has been attempting to reduce the deficit from an estimated 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2026 towards five per cent. Even that objective remains substantially above the EU’s three per cent reference value.

Brussels has limited room to compromise

Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has emphasised the importance of predictable fiscal policy and credible deficit reduction.

France is already subject to the EU’s excessive deficit procedure, under which member states must demonstrate progress towards agreed fiscal objectives.

The reformed European fiscal framework permits certain deviations from expenditure commitments in exceptional circumstances, but it does not provide an unrestricted exemption from debt sustainability requirements.

Paris therefore faces a double constraint. It must convince domestic political forces to support a budget while demonstrating to Brussels that its spending plans are sufficiently credible.

The danger is not necessarily an immediate financing crisis. France retains a large, diversified economy, deep financial markets and substantial tax-raising capacity.

The more immediate risk is that prolonged political deadlock produces progressively higher borrowing costs, making future fiscal adjustments more expensive.

Why the ECB cannot simply intervene

The European Central Bank has instruments designed to counter destabilising market conditions, but these are not intended to finance governments that are unwilling or unable to implement sustainable fiscal policies.

Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said on 7 October that France did not currently require ECB assistance. He argued that the solution lay in adopting a credible budget rather than expecting monetary intervention.

His position follows increasing speculation about whether the ECB could intervene if French bond yields continue rising.

Such intervention would raise difficult questions about the relationship between monetary policy and national fiscal responsibility. The ECB must consider financial stability across the entire eurozone, but it cannot remove the political obligations of individual governments.

France’s existing excessive deficit procedure also complicates its eligibility for certain forms of exceptional support.

The wider European consequences

France’s problems are developing at a particularly difficult moment for European public finances.

Governments are confronting higher defence commitments, expensive measures to protect households against energy inflation and demands for greater investment in industrial competitiveness.

Italy, another heavily indebted eurozone economy, is facing related pressures. The combination places additional importance on the credibility of the EU’s fiscal rules.

The political consequences within France are already visible. Marine Le Pen has presented a programme proposing €140 billion in spending reductions, while other parties have advanced sharply different approaches to taxation, debt and public expenditure.

Those competing programmes illustrate the difficulty of securing a parliamentary consensus capable of reassuring markets.

The approaching presidential election reduces the likelihood of a durable settlement before voters choose France’s next head of state.

Eurozone partners cannot resolve that impasse from Brussels or Frankfurt. They can insist on fiscal commitments and provide a framework for adjustment, but the political decisions remain with Paris.

France’s immediate challenge is to prevent its budget dispute from becoming a broader loss of confidence in the government’s capacity to manage its finances.