Donald Trump returned to power in Washington with two major foreign policy promises: to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” and to keep his country out of more “forever wars.” Almost two years after his decisive electoral victory, the Russian invasion continues with no sign of a quick end, and the United States has plunged itself into yet another hornet’s nest in the Middle East. Two conflicts of unpredictable outcome have pushed fossil fuel costs to historic highs worldwide and are increasing doubts about whether — with price signals distorted — supply chains will withstand the pressure.

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The United States and its energy industry are making a killing selling crude oil and its derivatives to the rest of the world. The world’s largest economy is filling part of the gap left by supply cuts from Gulf countries due to the war in Iran, and from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. But everything has its limits, and the breaking point was reached on Tuesday, September 22, when diesel surpassed $6.50 a gallon at U.S. pumps.

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