France’s borrowing costs have risen to levels last seen more than two decades ago as investors shift towards German, Dutch and other lower-risk European debt, placing Paris at the centre of renewed concern over eurozone public finances.

France is emerging as the principal source of concern in Europe’s government bond market as investors reassess the fiscal strength of eurozone states and increasingly move money towards Germany and other countries regarded as safer borrowers.

The yield on French ten-year government debt has reached its highest level since 2002 after rising by about 70 basis points during September. The difference between French and equivalent German borrowing costs approached 160 basis points last week, its widest since 2012, according to market reporting on the sell-off.

The shift represents a sharp reversal in how investors view French sovereign debt. France has traditionally traded close to Germany and benefited from its status as one of the eurozone’s largest and most liquid bond markets. It is now being treated increasingly as a country whose political and fiscal outlook warrants a substantial premium.

The immediate concern is the French budget.

Paris said in September that this year’s deficit would exceed the government’s five per cent target, while the country faces the additional challenge of issuing a record €340 billion of government bonds in 2027. The money will be needed both to finance current expenditure and refinance debt accumulated during the Covid period.

EU Today reported earlier this week that French debt concerns had already pushed the euro to a 17-month low against the dollar. Political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential election has added to market concern over whether any government will be able to deliver the spending reductions required to stabilise the public finances.

Bond markets, however, are responding to France’s present position rather than promises extending into the next presidential term.

The movement is also beginning to alter longstanding assumptions about which European sovereign borrowers are considered risky.

Italy remains vulnerable. Its ten-year bond spread over Germany rose to about 130 basis points last week, compared with roughly 80 basis points a month earlier. Italian public debt stands at around 138.6 per cent of GDP, and Rome expects its deficit to move above the EU’s three per cent ceiling.

Yet French debt has recently come under greater pressure than Italian debt.

Spain provides an even more striking contrast. During the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis in 2012, Spanish ten-year bonds yielded around five percentage points more than French debt. Spain’s ten-year yield is now approximately 75 basis points below France’s.

The difference reflects stronger Spanish growth and improved confidence in Madrid’s finances, although investors are watching Spanish and Portuguese debt for evidence that the French sell-off is spreading elsewhere in the currency union.

So far, the movement is not comparable with the eurozone crisis of the early 2010s. At that time, Italian bond spreads above Germany exceeded 500 basis points and Greece’s reached thousands of basis points. Current differences remain far smaller.

The direction of capital flows is nevertheless notable. Germany has re-established itself as Europe’s principal bond-market safe haven despite questions earlier this year about Berlin’s increased spending on defence and infrastructure. German ten-year yields fell as investors bought Bunds during the recent turbulence.

Higher sovereign yields feed into the interest costs faced by governments when refinancing debt and can affect borrowing throughout an economy. For a country already running a large deficit, rising yields make efforts to restore the public finances more difficult because an increasing share of expenditure must eventually be devoted to debt servicing.

The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2025 on Monday as investors reacted to rising French borrowing costs, political uncertainty and doubts over Paris’s ability to stabilise its public finances before next year’s presidential election.

The euro fell to a 17-month low against the US dollar on Monday as renewed pressure on French government debt raised concern over the fiscal position of the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

The single currency dropped as far as $1.116 during trading, its weakest level since May 2025, before recovering part of the fall. By late Monday it was trading at around $1.121, still lower on the day.

The move followed a sharp sell-off in French government bonds and a widening gap between French and German borrowing costs.

According to market data published on Monday, the spread between French government debt and equivalent German Bunds had approached 160 basis points on Friday, its widest level since the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis in 2011.

The gap subsequently narrowed, but the scale of the movement has drawn attention back to France’s public finances.

French debt is already close to 120 per cent of gross domestic product and is expected to continue rising.

Investors are now assessing whether Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government can secure sufficient parliamentary support for measures intended to put the budget on a more sustainable path.

That challenge is becoming more difficult as France approaches its 2027 presidential election.

Spending cuts and tax increases are politically sensitive even under stable parliamentary conditions. Lecornu’s administration does not have an outright majority in the National Assembly, while opposition parties have challenged several elements of the government’s fiscal programme.

The French economy itself is providing little additional room.

Revised national accounts examined by EU Today showed that the economy failed to grow during the second quarter, while household purchasing power weakened and investment declined.

Slower growth makes deficit reduction harder because tax revenues tend to grow more slowly while welfare and debt-servicing costs remain high.

Bond markets have also changed the calculation.

For much of the period following the eurozone debt crisis, France was able to borrow at historically low rates. Higher interest rates now mean maturing debt has to be refinanced at greater cost.

France’s debt burden is therefore rising at the same time as the price of servicing it increases.

The euro’s fall on Monday shows that those concerns are no longer confined to the French bond market.

Currency traders are also assessing whether fiscal pressure in France could affect confidence in the wider euro area.

The comparison with the sovereign-debt crisis of 2010–12 should nevertheless be treated cautiously.

France remains one of Europe’s largest and most diversified economies, and the eurozone now has institutional mechanisms and European Central Bank instruments that did not exist at the beginning of the earlier crisis.

There is also no indication that France is unable to finance itself.

What markets are pricing is an increase in the risk attached to holding French debt and growing uncertainty over the country’s medium-term fiscal trajectory.

The euro has now fallen for four successive weeks against the dollar and has lost more than three per cent over that period.

US monetary policy is contributing to the movement. Persistent inflation indicators have supported the dollar even as expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve interest-rate increase have declined.

For Europe, however, Monday’s trading was dominated by France.

French fiscal policy has been a domestic political dispute for much of the past year. The widening bond spread and the euro’s fall show that it is increasingly becoming a eurozone market issue.