In my role as a political commentator, I enjoy making predictions. I possess no special talent for this and am often hilariously wrong: Unlike most other pundits, I famously clung to my stupid belief that former President Joe Biden would never step down as the Democrats' 2024 candidate, for instance. I called the 2020 presidential election correctly (and got most states right, only flipping Georgia and Florida), but I messed up in 2024. (Nevertheless, I still demolished my co-host, who didn't appear to take this challenge very seriously.)
The hardest part about making predictions is separating what you want to happen from what is actually likely to happen. Commentators often feel inclined to rally for their preferred outcome, as if shouting about it on television is going to make it come true. In some ways, this is an easier temptation for us libertarians to avoid, since all outcomes generally seem suboptimal. Once again, that is the case: See, for example, the upcoming 2026 midterms.
It seems inarguable that President Donald Trump has squandered much of his political capital by failing to focus narrowly on the economy and instead launching another unpopular war in the Middle East. It also seems obvious that the Democratic Party, once returned in power, will do everything it can to thwart the administration's shrewdest policies—on tech and AI in particular.
But that is my prediction: Democrats will retake the House of Representatives and the Senate.
I don't have any specific map in mind for the House (it's too complicated), but here are my Senate predictions:
Here is my REVISED prediction for the Senate. For the last several weeks, everything has moved in Dems' direction, and I now expect them to take it.
I still say Collins holds on. Michigan and Ohio seem lost for GOP, though. And I'm not super confident in the Iowa call. https://t.co/oph3Swtgzw pic.twitter.com/FtsrGxmukJ
— Robby Soave (@robbysoave) October 20, 2026
When I looked at the map back in August, I still thought Ohio was a long shot for the Democrats and that Michigan was in play for the GOP due to Abdul El-Sayed being so far left. Now it looks to me like Republicans will lose both seats, along with Texas and Alaska. I'm still betting that the formidable incumbent in Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), will hold on—the polls have misjudged her in the past—and that Iowa is a bridge too far for Dems. If Republicans manage to keep those two seats, then it's a 51–49 map in Democrats' favor.
But wait…all is not lost for Trump.
In the event of a 51–49 Dem advantage, it seems somewhat likely to me that Sen. John Fetterman (D–Pa.) could switch parties, which would restore Republican control because of Vice President J.D. Vance's tiebreaking vote. With his conservative rhetoric on Israel and other issues, Fetterman has no future as an elected Democrat in his state—he could never ever ever win a Democratic primary—and will have to strike some sort deal with Trump before his reelection in 2028. Fetterman should agree to become an independent who caucuses with Republicans in exchange for Trump ensuring that no Republican dares run against him in the future. Absent such a deal, Fetterman is virtually guaranteed to be a one-term senator, so if he harbors any desire to keep his job—perhaps that's an open question—he will need to make a move. A 51–49 Senate will give him the exact leverage he needs.
So those are my predictions! What are yours?
I'm joined by Amber Duke to discuss the riots in France, Vivek Ramaswamy's terrible campaign ad, and more.
Here's another shameless plug for my upcoming debate with Katherine Mangu-Ward, Mehdi Hasan, and Jason Stanley! (Katherine is on my side.) If you are in Washington, D.C., please get tickets here.
The post I Predict the GOP Will Lose Its Senate Majority (and Magically Regain It) appeared first on Reason Magazine.
© John Tully for The New York Times
FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is facing an ethics complaint filed to the United States Senate over comments she made earlier this month that many characterized as a "threat" to conservatives who are thinking about working for the Trump administration.
During an Oct. 13 University of Chicago event, Slotkin drew criticism after a clip went viral showing her saying she wants to pursue "signature cases" against people who "enabled" President Donald Trump and push a "deterrence message" for young people.
"I want young people coming out of school to say, 'Should I go work for the Trump administration? Like, that sounds fun, I might get an opportunity.' I want them to be like, 'Lord, that might be buying myself a ton of problems that I don't want, and so let me avoid participating in that,'" she said. "I want that deterrence message sent," Slotkin said.
Slotkin is now facing an ethics complaint filed Thursday by Michael Bicksel, a University of Chicago student who first reported her remarks. The complaint was submitted to the Senate Select Committee on Ethics and argues that Slotkin proposed using congressional investigations and potential prosecutions to frighten young people away from serving in a Republican administration.
FORTY-FIVE PERCENT OF COLLEGE STUDENTS SAY VIOLENCE CAN BE JUSTIFIED TO STOP HATE SPEECH, POLL FINDS
"Recently at an event at my college, the University of Chicago, Senator Slotkin laid out a legislative-oversight agenda that involved using the legal process to terrorize members of the Trump administration in order to âdeterâ young people from going to work for it," Bicksel wrote.
The complaint asks the committee to determine whether Slotkin's comments amounted to "improper conduct which may reflect upon the Senate," a standard described in the Senate Ethics Manual as applying to conduct that may be unethical even if it does not violate a specific law or Senate rule.
"As a college student and a conservative, this was a shocking thing to hear," Bicksel's complaint reads. "A prominent U.S. Senator came to my college and laid out a goal that I and my peers should be afraid to serve our country in the executive branch. This is well below the standard of conduct expected of a U.S. Senator and deserves investigation by the Senate Select Committee on Ethics and appropriate subsequent disciplinary action."
ELISSA SLOTKIN TELLS STUDENTS LIKE ME NOT TO WORK IN GOVERNMENT. DON'T LISTEN TO HER
Bicksel argued that Slotkin's comments were directed at students considering government service, rather than exclusively at people who commit crimes or engage in unethical conduct.
"The substance of the âdeterrence messageâ is clear as day," Bicksel wrote. "Her target was âyoung people coming out of schoolâ (like me and my classmates) who are debating whether they should âgo work for the Trump administration.â"
"We are obviously not debating â as she subsequently tried to clarify â whether to go commit crimes or behave unethically," he continued. "Those who commit crimes should be punished for doing so. No one disagrees with that. All we are debating is public service, pure and simple, and Senator Slotkin says we should think twice about doing so because it might provoke the full power of the United States Senate."
Slotkin, when pressed on the response to her comment on CNN, referred to the controversy as "manufactured outrage."
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"I think the thing that I've heard from my own Republican colleagues and peers, including interns and folks who work around the Hill who come to our events, they'll tell you, âI was worried,â" Slotkin added. "My parents were worried, you know. It's really messy. I'm not sure what to get involved in.' Politics, in general, has become messy."
The Justice Department is currently facing calls to investigate Slotkin over her remarks, Washington Examiner reported on Wednesday.
Slotkin's communication director pointed Fox News Digital to a statement made by the senator on Tuesday when reached for comment.
"Now, if you take a breath, this is all pretty crazy. A president from the Oval Office is weaponizing our justice system against an American who clearly gets under his skin. And if he can do it to me, he can do it to anyone," Slotkin said. "His supporters use a coordinated play to threaten, intimidate, and silence anyone who speaks up. It's a play to distract us from his failed economy, high gas prices, and the disastrous war he started with Iran. But if I've learned one thing from this past year, it's that you have to push back."
Iâm a retired military prosecutor, U.S. Air Force Academy instructor, and former Wind Cave National Park Ranger. I love the life that my wife and I have built in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Iâm running for Senate as an independent because Iâm tired of seeing Big Money overpower common sense. The values I learned growing up in a small rural town from my machinist fatherâthe same values that built this great countryâare being treated as though they matter less than a politicianâs personal ambition or a billionaireâs appetite.
More than at any time in my life, I believe our political system needs to be shaken up and that We the People need to overcome the corrupting influence of Big Money. Self-dealing is screwing hard-working, honorable South Dakotans out of their chance to live the American Dream.
Iâm convinced that term limits are the best way to do it. Hereâs a good example of why I believe that. Last month it was reported that my opponent, Sen. Mike Rounds, allowed one of his top advisers â whoâs drawing a 6-figure taxpayer-funded salary â to simultaneously work as a lobbyist for Meta. This adviser, also a former Rounds campaign manager, has been pushing Big Money interests in the halls of the South Dakota state capitol, then advising our U.S. Senator on the very same issues, on the very same day.
TRUMP VANISHES FROM GOP SENATOR'S CAMPAIGN WEBSITE AS POLL NUMBERS PLUNGE WEEKS BEFORE ELECTION
There ought to be a law prohibiting that sort of thing. That is why, when Iâm elected, the first bill Iâll introduce is to make ALL lobbying by congressional staff illegal. Iâve had enough. My second bill would be term limits. Washingtonâs culture is so corrupt and out of touch that the people who live there too long donât even realize it anymore.
It was also recently reported that Mike Rounds spends more taxpayer money on private jets than any other member of the Senate.
Iâm not trying to dump on Mike.
I believe Mike Rounds is a good man. Iâm not here to add to the name-calling and personal meanness that does nothing to solve the very serious problems our state and nation face. Iâm here to say that Washington, D.C. needs to change. Most of us can agree our local communities are the ones who pay the price when an elected official stays in Washington too long. We're paying a huge price now.
I agreed with President Donald Trump when he ran on "no new wars." As a patriot whoâs proud to have served in both the Navy and the Air Force, I believe commanders-in-chief have a duty to only send our fighting men and women into harmâs way when itâs absolutely necessary. I agreed with him when he said that we needed to fight to make life less expensive. Where I come from, a promise is a promise.
But now, every time I fill up my Ram 1500 at the Corner Pantry, Iâm paying over $4.00 a gallon. When I buy groceries for my family at Sonnyâs Super Foods, Iâm paying more all the timeâespecially when I buy beef grown by the best ranchers in the world, right here in South Dakota. They are now having to compete with imports from South America that arenât fairly labeled so that American consumers can know the difference.
The Indian motorcycles that my brother works to assemble are getting harder for Americans to buy because of tariffs that we were told would make American manufacturing stronger.
Sen. Rounds has voted in favor of the Iran war every time heâs had the opportunity. He voted for the tariffs that are hurting South Dakotaâs economy. He voted to make the biggest healthcare cuts weâve ever felt, just so that companies could get tax breaks to build data centers. Wired reports that Mike has now taken more campaign contributions from data center-tied interests than from all of South Dakota itself. Those corporate donors are literally getting our moneyâs worth.
Sen. Rounds has been in office so long that he voted for the law that made it so that grocery stores donât have to tell us which country their meat came from. Now he says he wants to bring those rules back. Weâve reached the point where career politicians have been in office so long theyâre running against the exact things they did.
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Iâm not running to be an anti-Trump Senator or a pro-Trump Senator. I have plenty of disagreements with the left. It scares the hell out of me that young people are feeling a pull towards socialism. As a former Air Force prosecutor, I think proposals to "defund the police" and "abolish prisons" are insane. As someone who spent decades working to make America more secure, I thought President Joe Bidenâs failure to keep our border secure was unacceptable and offensive.
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Iâm running to put South Dakota first, and to work with anyone, whatever their politics, when itâs in the interest of our state.
I was an ethics advisor in the Air Force. I know itâs not my job to judge people by their politics, but I do believe itâs my job to stand up against a system that isnât going to fix itself.
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton sparred over President Donald Trump, immigration, Iran, transgender athletes, artificial intelligence and personal controversies during a contentious Kansas Senate debate Wednesday night.
The hourlong showdown came less than two weeks before Election Day as Marshall seeks a second term and Hamilton, a longtime pastor, tries to become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas since 1932.
The race has drawn increased national attention as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of the Senate, with Trump traveling to Kansas earlier this week to campaign for Marshall â a topic touched on during the debate.
Here are five moments that stood out from Wednesday night's debate.
SLEEPER SENATE RACE EMERGES AS UNEXPECTED HEADACHE FOR REPUBLICANS AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
The debate wasted little time getting contentious, opening with questions about controversies that have fueled attacks against both candidates.
Marshall was confronted with a New York Times review that found his former medical practice sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills.
"Every year we gave away $3 to $4 million of charity, but we also had a business," Marshall responded. "We had 300 employees, we had a mortgage payment, we had electric."
Hamilton, meanwhile, was questioned about his handling of allegations involving a volunteer at his church's summer camp who was accused of sexual abuse.
Hamilton acknowledged that he should have ensured the individual did not return to the camp following an initial investigation.
FROM 'THIRD REICH' TO âNOT THAT INFORMEDâ: SENATE DEBATES DELIVER FIREWORKS BEFORE MIDTERMS
"I should have checked to make sure that he wasn't going back," Hamilton said. "That was a mistake on my part."
Trump became part of the debate after moderators played footage from the president's campaign appearance for Marshall in Kansas earlier in the week.
"And at this election, I'm asking you to pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just pretend," Trump told the crowd.
Marshall was then asked whether Trump's support meant Kansans should expect him to back every part of the president's agenda.
"No," Marshall responded, saying there had been "multiple times" when he objected to Trump.
Pressed to identify a specific disagreement, Marshall pointed to recent immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas and Trump's approach to beef imports.
"Just like with my wife, I can disagree with her. My wife is always right," Marshall joked. "And President Trump is not always right."
Marshall nevertheless urged Trump voters to turn out for him, arguing that electing Hamilton could help Democrats capture the Senate.
The two rivals found themselves in agreement when the moderator asked each candidate how many genders there are.
"There's two. There's a boy and there's a girl," Marshall said. "I delivered 5,000 of them and almost half were boys and half were girls."
"There are two genders, male and female," Hamilton responded.
TOP TAKEAWAYS FROM JD VANCE TOWN HALL: COSTLY GAS, DC CORRUPTION, IMMIGRATION HOT TAKES AND THE WAR
The candidates then turned to the debate over transgender participation in women's sports.
Hamilton said decisions over athletic eligibility should generally be made locally but was unequivocal about whether biological males should compete against females.
"I have a 12-year-old granddaughter. I don't want biological men or boys competing against her that could harm her," Hamilton said. "It's not a fair, fair fight."
Marshall argued that by high school, "boys need to be in boys sports, girls in girls sports," while accusing national Democrats of pushing "transgender ideology."
Hamilton later accused Marshall of using the issue to "pick on" and "bully" people.
Hamilton called for greater federal oversight of artificial intelligence and compared the emerging technology to the development of nuclear power and nuclear weapons.
"We developed a Nuclear Regulatory Commission. We need to do the same thing with AI," Hamilton said.
But when the moderator pressed him to identify specific federal regulations he would support, Hamilton acknowledged he did not yet have an answer.
"You know what? I'm not sure, to be honest," Hamilton said, arguing that even experts are struggling to understand the technology's potential dangers.
Marshall advocated a "light touch" approach focused on national security, transparency, protecting children and privacy, while slamming a one-size-fits-all global order for artificial intelligence advancement.
Hamilton pushed back sharply.
"This is an existential â potential existential threat to the human race," Hamilton said. "We can't just go with a light touch and hope everybody does their best."
BIDEN CONSPICUOUSLY ABSENT FROM CAMPAIGN TRAIL AS OBAMA, HARRIS STEP UP FOR MIDTERM PUSH
Hamilton sought to put distance between himself and former President Joe Biden when moderators challenged the Democrat over his claim that he would "lead from the middle."
The moderator pointed to Hamilton's past donations to Democrats, including Biden, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Rep. Sharice Davids, D-Kan., before asking him to identify a progressive policy he opposed.
"The Biden policies when it came to the border were a disaster," Hamilton responded. "I believe in strong and secure borders."
"I'm not somebody who favors the Socialist Party," Hamilton added. "I'm somebody who stands in the middle."
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Hamilton also reiterated during the debate that he would not support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for majority leader if Democrats capture control of the chamber.
Democrats believe circumstances have aligned for them to win a slew of competitive elections in the state
Mary Peltola’s campaign to represent Alaska in the US Senate has taken her to parts of the massive state’s interior that are inaccessible by road and on the frontlines of the cost-of-living crisis she hopes will make her the first Democrat to win the seat in nearly two decades.
She has been to towns where paper towels retail for $40, a half gallon of oat milk goes for $21 and the cost of a new freezer can be quadruple what it is in the state’s largest city, Anchorage, simply because it’s so complicated to get there. Along the Arctic Ocean, she’s heard of communities where power bills have climbed to $1,500 a month because they rely on generators for power and the Iran war has pushed the cost of diesel to new heights.
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© Photograph: Kerry Tasker/Reuters
© Photograph: Kerry Tasker/Reuters
© Photograph: Kerry Tasker/Reuters
Frustration with a sprawling fraud scandal has cut Peggy Flanagan’s poll lead – could ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya win a first statewide election for Republicans in 20 years?
As Democrats fight to regain control of the US Senate, hopes are rising in states – from Kansas to Texas – where they have not prevailed in decades. But in Minnesota, where Republicans have not won statewide election since 2006, the contest for an open Senate seat is closer than expected.
Should Peggy Flanagan – the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor – win the election, she will be the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate. But history has not yet been made. The closely watched Cook Political Report shifted its rating on the race this week from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat”.
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© Photograph: Elizabeth Flores/TNS/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
© Photograph: Elizabeth Flores/TNS/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
© Photograph: Elizabeth Flores/TNS/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
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