Reading the comments made by Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan about the construction work for the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), some might conclude that this opened the way for the resolution of the dispute. Fidan told the Greek newspaper Ta Nea that Turkey would not object to the carrying out of sea-bed surveys for the GSI so long as it was notified in writing.

The matter was discussed at a meeting between President Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in New York, said Fidan, who explained Ankara’s thinking in the following way: “What we are asking is that when a ship conducts research at sea, it sends us a written notification, not just an oral one, stating ‘we are going to undertake specific actions in this area, here are the coordinates.’ That is all we are asking for.”

This appears to be a reasonable approach, but it cannot be accepted by Greece given the ongoing dispute between the two countries over territorial waters. Notifying Turkey in writing about work that would be done in the sea, would mean that Greece recognised Turkey’s claims on the sea south of Crete, which it does not. By the same reasoning, if Turkey turned a blind eye to the work being carried out in waters it claimed sovereignty over, would indicate it has given up its claims.

This is part of the ongoing argument between the two countries, with Turkey claiming islands have no maritime zone beyond their territorial waters, which do not extend beyond six nautical miles. Greece has always cited the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas that states that every island is entitled to maritime zones – continental shelf, territorial waters and EEZ.

Despite Fidan’s seemingly reasonable comments, we will have a problem because it is very unlikely Turkey will receive written notification from Greece. The Cyprus government, however, said a navtex for the seabed surveys would be issued before the end of this month. The surveys would be carried out by a French-flagged ship which might make it more difficult for Turkey to stop it – the matter had been raised at a meeting with President Emmanuel Macron, said Fidan.

Perhaps the written notification would be submitted by the French investment company, Meridiam, which has the majority shareholding in GSI, thus keeping everyone happy. Whether this would be acceptable or Turkey would insist on a written notification from the Greek government nobody knows.

Unfortunately, matters have been further complicated by the ratification of the Turkey-Libya maritime boundary agreement by the Libyan parliament, which completely ignores the existence of Rhodes, Kasos and Crete and their maritime zones. The Turkey-Libya agreement has been dismissed as illegal by Greece and has been condemned by the EU, but it could make finding a GSI solution even more difficult.

Averof Neophytou, who has turned Disy upside down in the pursuit of his presidential ambition, announced on Wednesday that he would stand in Monday’s election for the party candidacy. This was not the original plan of the former party leader, who, a couple of weeks earlier, said he would not take part in the party selection process and instead stand as a candidate.

If Neophytou carried out his threat, he would have split the Disy vote and ensured that neither he nor the party’s presidential candidate would advance to the second Sunday run-off. Faced with this prospect, party leader Annita Demetriou, who had announced her plan to stand and set a date for the vote, decided to withdraw, for the sake of safeguarding party unity. She had also come under pressure from a small but influential group not to stand.

With Demetriou out of the way, Neophytou decided to play by the party rules. He will not follow the example set by Nicos Christodoulides in 2022 as he had threatened to do a few weeks ago, forcing Demetriou into the rash decision of setting a date for the party elections. This was a big mistake, although Demetriou calculated it was the best way to sideline Neophytou, especially if he snubbed the party election.

Neophytou is now favourite to defeat Pamborides and win the title of Disy presidential candidate, but this will not be the end of the party’s problems. It was given an idea of what to expect last week when Neophytou publicly urged President Nikos Christodoulides to call for an end to EU sanctions on Russia so that the supply of petrol on the world market would increase and the price of fuel would come down.

It was crude populism, as Neophytou is smart enough to know this would never happen, but it undermined the party which, as a member of the European People’s Party, is fully aligned with the sanctions policy of the EU. This was the reason it felt obliged to issue an announcement to clarify that it supported EU sanctions on Russia. Without wanting to, the party sided with the president against the man who could be its presidential candidate.

Disy is now staring at the embarrassing prospect of its presidential candidate, assuming Neophytou wins on Monday, promoting policies that the party disagrees with. Presumably, the man who will be candidate will confer with the party leadership about his campaign programme. This is the problem of having a presidential candidate who is not the party leader. Who would follow who?

There is still a very long way to go until the presidential elections and there could still be some surprises down the road. What would Neophytou do if, against all odds, he is defeated by Pamborides on Monday?

After years of high expectations about the gas finds in the Cyprus EEZ, everyone is starting to understand that no decision taken by the oil industry is straightforward. It was always like this, but the politicians and other opinion-makers, either through ignorance or design, created the impression that the cash would roll in and before long we would see our standard of living soar.

It has not happened, despite the marketing agreements the Anastasiades government had signed and the much-trumpeted trilateral agreements with neighbouring countries that would supposedly ensure the exploitation of the Aphrodite gas field. The natural gas discovery in Block 12 was made 15 years ago, in 2011, and there have been more discoveries since then, but we are still nowhere near selling any gas.

Last week the publication that covers the oil industry, MEES (Middle East Economic Survey) reported that Chevron would be asking Cyprus to pay $3 per mmbtu (million British thermal units) for use of the pipeline that would take gas from the Aphrodite gas field to the gas terminal in Egypt. The original price which, would have made the sale of gas profitable, was $1 per mmbtu, but the new price changed everything.

Cyprus Mail columnist and energy expert Charles Ellinas expressed the view that the higher price would eat away at the expected profits for Cyprus, to such an extent that “it would hardly be worth it for Cyprus.” The fact is that Chevron is calling the shots and given the small quantities of gas in the Aphrodite field its exploitation is not a priority in any way. Apart from much bigger projects in other parts of the world, it is reported that Chevron is also investing in doubling the output from Israel’s Leviathan field.

There is also another complication regarding Aphrodite. Despite years of negotiations Cyprus and Israel have failed to reach an agreement on the percentage of the revenue that would go to Israel for the part of the Aphrodite field that stretches into its EEZ. Without an agreement there could be no extraction of gas and Chevron made it clear that its final investment decision (FDI) was conditional on a resolution of the dispute.

Cyprus does not have any alternative but to accept what Chevron decides. In an industry in which investments worth hundreds of millions of dollars are made by oil firms, national governments have no say. Chevron has made this clear with the new price it is has quoted for the use of its pipelines – a price that could leave Cyprus a very small profit, if any. To cut a long story short, Cyprus is at the mercy of the oil companies. This has always been the case, but only now are realising how things work in the oil industry.