Throughout the history of Middle Eastern wars, one strategic mistake has been repeated time and again: great powers achieve victory on the battlefield, only to give their defeated adversaries an opportunity at the negotiating table to transform military defeat into political triumph. President Donald Trump faces precisely this danger. After eight months of war, the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite suffering devastating military and economic losses, continues to seek political survival through nuclear blackmail, threats to global energy security and the deliberate prolongation of negotiations. Washington must not allow a regime that has paid a heavy price for its reckless adventurism to regain, through a hastily negotiated agreement, the very position it occupied before the war.

The developments of Oct. 20 demonstrate that Tehran has abandoned none of its familiar tactics of confrontation, intimidation, bluffing and extortion. On the one hand, Islamic Republic officials speak of negotiations and ending the war; on the other, they impose imaginary conditions on Washington that, if accepted without credible guarantees, could dismantle much of America's leverage.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Islamic Republic's Supreme National Security Council — a former terrorist affiliated with the Islamic terrorist group Mansouroun, who even sought to visit the United States in the 2000s but was opposed by the CIA — emphasized during his meeting with Pakistan's army chief that not a single gram of Iran's enriched uranium would leave the country.

IRAN RULES OUT TRANSFERRING URANIUM TO A THIRD COUNTRY

Meanwhile, Abbas Araghchi — a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member acting as foreign minister — has made reopening the Strait of Hormuz conditional upon acceptance of Tehran's proposed plan. Far from demonstrating a genuine willingness to compromise, these positions reveal the regime's determination to preserve its instruments of coercion on the eve of a potential agreement.

The most significant issue, however, lies in the political calculations of the Islamic Republic's rulers. Tehran is deliberately dragging out negotiations to weaken Trump's political standing ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections — in other words, to exert psychological pressure on the American president.

IRAN REGIME UNDER PRESSURE AS REBEL GROUPS ESCALATE ATTACKS IN VOLATILE SOUTHEAST

This is no longer merely a dispute over centrifuges or economic sanctions. The Islamic Republic is attempting to weaponize the exhaustion of war, the anxieties of American voters and rising energy costs as instruments of political pressure against the president of the United States. Such calculated deception must be understood in Washington as part of Tehran's asymmetric warfare strategy, not dismissed as an ordinary diplomatic tactic.

The Strait of Hormuz stands at the center of this calculation. The terrorist organization known as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has claimed — without presenting any evidence — that Iranian naval mines prevented three oil tankers from passing through the waterway. Nevertheless, the widespread disruption of regional shipping is an undeniable reality.

TRUMP'S MOAB THREAT COULD PUT IRAN'S DEEPEST BUNKERS IN AMERICA'S CROSSHAIRS

The Islamic Republic understands perfectly well that it does not need to win a conventional naval battle to inflict economic pain on the United States. It need only increase the risks facing oil tankers, drive up insurance and transportation costs and keep global energy markets trapped in uncertainty. Under this strategy, commercial tankers become hostages to Tehran's security calculations, while American consumers pay the price of the Iranian regime's policies at the gas pump.

This is the very essence of the rogue Islamic Republic's asymmetric warfare: a form of conflict in which military weakness is compensated for through economic, propaganda, intelligence and proxy instruments. Tehran possesses limited capabilities in a direct confrontation with American military power, but it can exploit maritime routes, militia networks, cyberattacks and influence operations to multiply the costs of the crisis.

IRAN SETS RED LINES FOR US TALKS: LIFT SANCTIONS, END THREATS — 'NOT A GRAM' OF URANIUM LEAVES

Reports of efforts by Iran and Russia to intensify unrest in France, together with the rearrests of two suspects in Britain on suspicion of intelligence cooperation with Iran, serve as further reminders that Western security concerns extend far beyond the Persian Gulf. Ignoring this pattern would undoubtedly be a dangerous mistake. The Islamic Republic came to power through terrorism, sustained its rule through terrorism, destruction and manufactured crises, and its eventual collapse may likewise be possible through war.

The nuclear file exposes another danger. Tehran's insistence on retaining its enriched uranium, while simultaneously demanding relief from economic and military pressure, raises a fundamental question: If the Iranian regime genuinely intends to address international concerns, why does it refuse to demonstrate flexibility over one of the most sensitive components of its nuclear program?

IRAN IS TRYING TO ‘CREATE A ROT FROM WITHIN’ THROUGH ‘INFORMATION WARFARE,’ ANALYST WARNS

Uranium enrichment does not, by itself, prove a decision to manufacture nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, enriched uranium stockpiles, centrifuge capacity and the possibility of independent monitoring remain decisive factors in assessing the risk of a nuclear breakout. An agreement that postpones these questions while granting Tehran immediate and irreversible concessions could merely defer the crisis to an even more dangerous stage rather than resolve it. The principal global threat remains Islamic terrorism and Iran's transnational terrorist network.

Trump must recognize the distinction between ending military operations and eliminating a security threat. The destruction of military equipment, damage to facilities and degradation of the Revolutionary Guards' operational capabilities — however extensive — do not automatically mean the elimination of the rogue mafia regime's command structure, political will, or capacity for reconstruction.

HOW SAUDI ARABIA'S DEFENSE VULNERABILITIES COULD BECOME TRUMP'S PROBLEM AMID HOUTHI ONSLAUGHT

Over the decades, the Islamic Republic has demonstrated its ability to exploit periods of reduced pressure to rebuild its military and security structures and its terrorist networks. Accordingly, America's measure of success must not be limited to the cessation of missile launches or the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Genuine success will come only when the regime's ability to repeat those same threats has been curtailed.

Another mistake must also be avoided: equating Iran with the Islamic Republic. The Iranian nation and the ruling establishment in Tehran are two fundamentally different realities. For years, the Iranian people have paid the price of domestic repression, systemic corruption, international isolation and the regime's regional adventurism. No sustainable American strategy should portray the survival of the Islamic Republic as synonymous with stability in Iran.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

On the contrary, a policy that merely guarantees the regime's security in exchange for temporary concessions could deprive Iranian society of the opportunity to shape a different future. While safeguarding its own national security interests, Washington must defend the Iranian people's right to determine their country's political future, without bargaining away their destiny behind the closed doors of a security agreement. The Iranian people want regime change.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

To prevent such an outcome, the Trump administration needs a clear strategic framework and a decisive course of action. Any agreement must include explicit nuclear commitments, enforceable independent monitoring, credible verification mechanisms, guarantees for maritime security and clearly defined consequences for violations. Sanctions relief and the release of financial resources must not be granted in advance without securing genuine concessions. Threats against commercial vessels must never become an instrument through which Tehran acquires political control over one of the world's most vital waterways. Diplomacy has value when it reduces threats.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM ERFAN FARD

A new coalition of Iranian opposition groups in the restive southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman in the Islamic Republic have launched a string of armed attacks against the clerical regime in the region.

The six strikes claimed by the coalition known as the People’s Fighters Front (JMM) have contributed to instability in the provinces, raising pressing questions about whether armed resistance against the clerical regime in Tehran will spread and if the regime can retain control over Sistan and Baluchistan, which is a majority Iranian Sunni province.

Iran is largely a Shiite Muslim country, and the minority Iranian Sunni population has faced discrimination over the decades. Sistan and Baluchistan is the second largest of the 31 Iranian provinces.

MOJTABA KHAMENEI DEFIES ‘MALICIOUS’ ATTACKS AS US ARMY ZEROES IN ON IRAN’S 350,000 TROOPS

Mardo Soghom, an Iran expert who has written extensively about the Islamic Republic, told Fox News Digital, "The Sunni unrest can stretch the regime's military and internal security capabilities and have a psychological impact on its forces, in addition to what they experienced during the 40-day operation by the U.S. and Israel. The armed groups would not be able to establish control of the south-east, but they can seriously weaken the regime's control."

He added, "Whether these forces are receiving assistance from the Islamic Republic's adversaries — being that the Gulf Arab states or even Israel and the U.S. — remains an open question."

According to an October Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) report, "The pace of violence accelerated significantly in recent weeks [in the provinces] with 18 incidents recorded in just the final 18 days of the reporting period, surpassing the total for any previous full month." 

JMM coalesced as an opposition coalition in Dec. 2025 through an amalgam of Baloch nationalist organizations with the militant Sunni group Jaish al-Adl.

HRANA documented "at least 63 armed incidents were recorded across Iran’s southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Kerman between March 31 and Oct.10, 2026, amid a sharp escalation in armed violence in the region."

The armed resistance resulted in "at least 94 people dead and 33 injured, while official sources reported 87 fatalities and 10 injuries."

IRAN INSTALLS NEW WAR CHIEFS AS TEHRAN SIGNALS ‘PROLONGED CONFRONTATION,’ EXPERT WARNS

The Baloch coalition stunned the regime on Oct. 14 with the assassinations of women members of the Basij paramilitaries, including a commander and a police officer in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. The Basij has been designated a terrorist entity by the U.S. government because it falls under the American-classified terrorist movement Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Just days before the attack on the female Basij commander, Iranian regime-controlled media reported that Nosrat Eftekhari, deputy for Cultural and Social Affairs of the Provincial Law Enforcement Command, was killed by a roadside bomb in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan provinces.

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital that "There have been periodic cycles of unrest in Sistan and Baluchistan Province over the years. What we are now witnessing is an uptick in such activity. The current commander of the IRGC’s Ground Forces, Mohammad Karami used to be governor of the province and commanded IRGC forces there. His experience in the province was one of the reasons Karami was elevated to the post in 2025 given the sensitive security situation in the country."

Brodsky continued that "I don’t see any imminent threat in terms of such a seizure of control, but a red line for Iranians, especially in the opposition, is preserving the territorial integrity of Iran. That needs to be understood in Western capitals."

MOTORCYCLE PATROLS SWARM IRANIAN CITIES, CHECKPOINTS RISE AS REGIME BRACES FOR UNREST

Khalilullah Balochi, who is a Baluch activist and journalist, told Iran International that "The activities of these groups are not new; what is new is the intensification of attacks." 

JMM’s devastating attacks targeting the brutal Iranian regime have generated attention from Iranian dissidents and experts.

Navid Mohebbi, who worked as a Persian media analyst for the State Department's Public Affairs Bureau, told Fox News Digital "The newly formed popular Fighters Front has carried out a series of relatively successful attacks against mid-level regime officials and security personnel in Sistan and Baluchistan province in recent months, drawing a degree of public attention. At a time when the regime is executing protesters on a daily basis, the killing of certain mid-ranking security and military operatives has been met with some satisfaction among segments of Iranian society."

He warned, however, that "Nevertheless, the Iranian public remains deeply cautious and largely distrustful of such groups. Two major concerns underpin this distrust: the possibility of separatist ambitions and the influence of radical Islamism, which is fundamentally at odds with the increasingly secular outlook of Iranian society."

AFTER 6 MONTHS OF WAR, US MUST PREPARE FOR A FUTURE AFTER IRAN’S GOVERNMENT FALLS

Mohebbi sees encouraging signs from the JMM, including "the coalition’s recent statements, unlike the rhetoric traditionally associated with similar groups, contain no explicit references to Baluch separatism. Instead, the coalition has identified its primary objective as dismantling the system of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) and liberating the country from its oppression. It has explicitly declared that it seeks ‘an Iran for all Iranians."’

He continued that "The reality is that these groups lack the capacity to confront the regime in conventional warfare. Through guerrilla operations, however, they can inflict significant psychological blows on the regime and its security establishment. Whether their activities can gain traction beyond Sistan and Baluchistan will depend largely on their ability to sustain what appears to be an effort to earn broader public trust."

Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, told Fox News Digital the coalition has "a lot of guns" and created an "armed rebellion" against the Iranian regime in the provinces. He said, however, the armed upheaval is limited to the region Baluchistan.

Sabti, who was born in Tehran, said the clerical regime in the capital Tehran does not exercise solid control over the provinces, which resembles parts of South America where some governments lost sovereignty to militias.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

He said that there are no reporters in the restive region. As a result, it is difficult to secure accurate news. Sabti said the "IRGC has a headquarters there to fight against these Baluchis." The JMM coalition "can only continue to harm the soldiers and, from time to time, kill a commander. There are a lot of these local commanders in Iran. It is not like an air force commander."

The embattled French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday pinned some of the blame on the U.S. war against the terrorist regime in Iran for the widespread riots and looting unfolding across France.

The controversial passage referring to the Iran war from his televised speech triggered criticism from some experts. Macron said that "demonstrators expressed concern about the cost of living and the price of fuel. Both are driven by the conflict launched in the Persian Gulf, a conflict in which France has taken no part but whose consequences we are suffering."

He added, "I fully understand their concern. It is being expressed in several other European capitals as well. That is why I have taken several initiatives at the international level to secure our fuel and our gas and to act on energy markets." Macron announced that he would be traveling to the Gulf on a three-nation stop to discuss the energy crisis.

FRANCE’S TEEN RIOTS TAKE EXPLOSIVE NEW TURN AS GOVERNMENT POINTS FINGER AT HARD LEFT

It is unclear which demonstrators Macron signaled out for alleged concerns about fuel prices. Fox News Digital reported on Monday on the inner workings of the large-scale riots with many of the groups named seeking to abolish the free enterprise system.

Macron stressed that those who have tried "to bring down the republic will be held accountable."

President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that, "I said the first time I met Macron, I said, you got to close up your borders. You're going to ruin your country. And they've ruined their country. It's going to be hard to get it back. But hopefully France will come back."

A spokesman for the French foreign ministry pointed Fox News Digital to President Macron's televised address on Sunday and referred Fox News Digital to the Elysée press office for other questions. The Élysée press office did not respond by time of publication.

Lisa Daftari, an Iran expert, told Fox News Digital, "Macron is pointing at the Iran war, but fuel is expensive because Iran's regime closed the Strait of Hormuz and held the world's energy supply hostage. The bigger question is whether this is really about students and fuel prices at all. Major infrastructures and landmarks have been set on fire, shops were looted across the country and nearly 2,400 people were arrested in a single day."

According to Daftari, who is the Foreign Desk Editor-in-Chief, "That's not a protest over the price of diesel. It's organized lawlessness and Macron's own government admits it, blaming ultra-left groups and criminals. France has a domestic crisis, and current geopolitics are not the alibi for it."

WHO'S WHO: INSIDE FRANCE'S 'CHAOS INC.' FRANCHISE OF COMMUNIST GROUPS, LABOR UNIONS AND GLOBAL ACTIVISTS

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu accused the "ultra-left movement" of "orchestrating profound disorder in the country leading up to the presidential election "

Barak Seener, an associate research fellow at the London-based Henry Jackson Society, told Fox News Digital that "Illegal immigration from the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa as well as from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh to European states serve as Trojan horses to dominate the West. Calls to ‘globalize the intifada’ and ‘Free Gaza’ and ‘Stop the genocide’ are codes to subvert and ultimately dominate Western civilization and impose Sharia law. Macron is still making the mistake of ignoring this."

VIOLENT FAR-LEFT RIOTS IN FRANCE ARE 'CHILLING WARNING' FOR AMERICANS AT HOME, MIKE JOHNSON SAYS

In a social media post Vice President JD Vance criticized France for its porous immigration policy. Vance wrote on X that "Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion."

He added: "They ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility. They were told it would lead to this and they didn’t listen."

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Seener said that similarly, the French political establishment’s political correctness and unilateral support of a Palestinian state have come home to roost. Just as Macron ignorantly declared at the 81st United Nations General Assembly that Hamas ‘has never been active’ in the West Bank, it is remarkable how Macron is reframing reality to suit his political agenda."

Seener, who has written extensively about Iran, added that "He has chosen to address students, teachers, trade unions, lawmakers and business leaders and increased oil prices due to the U.S.-led war against Iran. It is unrelated to this. More fundamentally, Macron is choosing to ignore the Red-Green alliance that has contributed to the riots across France, including 38 radical Left and Muslim organizations and 16 student organizations which includes communist youth groups and a Muslim student association such as the Muslim Students of France."