Russian missiles keep falling on Ukrainian cities while Washington holds up approval of Patriot interceptor transfers to Ukraine, according to The Washington Post. A Ukrainian official told the Post that only "a couple" of interceptors remained. President Donald Trump wants this war to end, and that goal deserves support. But a deal that squeezes only Ukraine is not a peace plan, and right now Kyiv absorbs the pressure while Moscow collects the relief.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on Oct. 20 that a batch bought for Kyiv may not have been delivered, but he rejected any political motive. "There's nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine," he said.

So is Washington protecting scarce supplies, applying negotiating pressure or both? Americans deserve an answer, including what concessions Washington expects from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

TRUMP RUSSIA DEAL COULD FUEL PUTIN'S WAR, EX-NATO COMMANDER WARNS AS ZELENSKYY SAYS 'NYET'

The administration's strongest defense is scarcity, so start with the missiles. Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025 and plans to expand annual capacity to 2,000 over seven years.

The Iran war compounded the problem. A July assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that heavy combat use had pushed American Patriot inventories below 1,000.

UKRAINE'S ZELENSKYY OPEN TO FREEZING FRONT LINES IN CEASEFIRE WITH RUSSIA

A president must keep enough interceptors to protect American troops. Having worked on military strategy and security cooperation at the Pentagon, I take that obligation seriously. Ukraine's needs cannot erase our responsibilities elsewhere.

European money does not change that math. Kiel Institute data covering the first half of 2026 identify Europe as the largest military-aid donor, yet American stockpiles supplied more than 90% of the aid delivered through NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). Europe is paying American industry to arm Ukraine, and Washington controls the tap.

AMERICA FACES A CRISIS IN OUR MILITARY ARSENAL THAT TRUMP IS RACING TO FIX

The lasting answer to scarcity is production. When U.S. Sens. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., and Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv Oct. 9, he pressed for faster Patriot production licensing and offered joint production of interceptors. Washington should pursue it, with technology safeguards.

Still, scarcity does not explain every pending decision, and Washington owes the allies who paid for these weapons a straight explanation. Nor does it explain the broader pressure on Kyiv.

TRUMP TELLS ZELENSKYY TO STOP DOING 'ONE THING' DURING ATTACKS ON RUSSIA

The clearest example involves the same pipeline. Reuters reports that Washington threatened to stop the allied-funded PURL weapons pipeline to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. That is leverage over Ukrainian military operations, not proof of a coordinated campaign to remove Zelenskyy.

The satellite dispute is murkier. Blamed for throttling Ukraine's terminals, billionaire Elon Musk posted that limits "are decided by the U.S. military and ultimately" by the president. Reuters then traced the restriction to the White House through unnamed officials. Trump denied it. "It wasn't us," he told reporters Oct. 16. Separately, Ukraine went three days without American missile warnings before Zelenskyy said Oct. 18 that intelligence sharing had resumed.

ZELENSKYY ACCUSES PUTIN OF DEFYING TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE PUSH, SENDS POINTED MESSAGE TO WHITE HOUSE

The pressure is also personal. Trump called Oct. 10 for Ukraine to replace its president. Yet Zelenskyy sat down with American envoys in Oslo on Oct. 20. A leader who shows up for talks is not refusing diplomacy.

Now consider the other side of the ledger. Trump announced an energy ceasefire Oct. 11, although Russian agreement remained unclear. A week later, Russian strikes hit 28 substations and other energy facilities, according to the Institute for the Study of War, leaving roughly 550,000 Ukrainian households without power. Kyiv was pressed to stop hitting refineries while Moscow kept hitting the grid. Putin never confirmed the ceasefire, and his missiles show he never intended to honor it.

TRUMP TRIES DIFFERENT APPROACH WITH RUSSIA TO BRING AMERICANS RELIEF AMID ONGOING WAR WITH UKRAINE

Moscow, meanwhile, received relief. On Oct. 9, Treasury issued a license authorizing specified Russian diesel transactions. Reuters later reported that Washington hoped the diesel deal would soften Moscow's negotiating position.

The administration's case is domestic. Diesel hit a record $6.52 a gallon in September as the Iran war choked the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump promised relief for farmers, ranchers and truckers. But Lawfare's analysis found the agreed Russian exports would cover about 2% of American demand. The price relief is speculative. Moscow's gains are not: sanctions relief and American pressure on Kyiv to spare Russian refineries.

PENTAGON RACES TO BUY 10X MORE MISSILES AS IRAN WAR DWINDLES ARSENAL, THREATENS READINESS FOR CHINA AGGRESSION

Offering an adversary an incentive can be sound diplomacy. The question is what the incentive buys. So far, the bombing has not stopped.

Nor has softer treatment softened the Kremlin's terms. When Zelenskyy offered a 60-day ceasefire to permit elections, the Kremlin rejected it on Oct. 12, saying it wanted an overall settlement. Moscow refused the very pause that Trump's call for new Ukrainian leadership would require.

Putin's ambitions run larger still. The New York Post reports that he wants a summit with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to settle the war without Zelenskyy or Europe at the table, a redux of Yalta.

Putin bargains as if time is on his side. The battlefield says otherwise. Reuters reported Oct. 17 that Russian advances had slowed and many front lines remained largely static.

That gives Washington room to demand reciprocity. Wicker, the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, proposed one approach on Oct. 18: Ukrainian restraint against petroleum facilities in exchange for American targeting assistance against Russian missile launches. It deserves consideration. But Putin would still need to offer restraint of his own.

So what must Putin give up? As I argued in these pages last December, a durable agreement requires credible enforcement, and enforcement begins with concessions Moscow can be held to.

Russia must halt strikes on Ukraine's power grid and cities, the same restraint Washington demanded of Kyiv. It must accept monitored ceasefire terms, defined restrictions on military activity and consequences for violations. It must negotiate with Kyiv, not over Kyiv's head in China. And it must recognize that the size of Ukraine's army and the choice of its security partners belong to Kyiv, not the Kremlin.

For his part, Trump should preserve American reserves, expand production, insist on European performance and refuse any summit that decides Ukraine's fate without Ukraine. Diesel licenses and any further sanctions relief should depend on compliance, with automatic snap-back penalties if Moscow cheats.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

America need not send combat troops to Ukraine or finance an indefinite war to demand those safeguards.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Trump wants the killing to stop. Whether Putin will accept enforceable limits remains unproved. The test of American diplomacy is whether Moscow earns relief through compliance and faces greater costs for renewed aggression.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ROBERT MAGINNIS

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told "Fox & Friends" on Wednesday that he is open to freezing the front lines of the Ukraine-Russia war in an effort to bring the long-running conflict to an end.

Zelenskyy made the remark after being asked by Brian Kilmeade if he would "accept a peace deal that freezes everything the way it is right now, where you still keep 75% or more of your country, regardless of how it started."

"Yes, right now, we have to freeze," Zelenskyy responded. "And I think this is [a] real way to end this war. We call it ceasefire or ‘stop killing’ like President Trump called it.

"Freeze and stop. And, of course, this is the minimum of what we need from Russia today. Then, of course, we will go to [the] president and to Europeans, and we'll ask security guarantees," he continued.

RUSSIA RELEASES AMERICAN TEACHER IMPRISONED ON UKRAINE MERCENARY CHARGES AFTER TRUMP PRESSED PUTIN

"This is the most important … not to be afraid," Zelenskyy also said. "We need 9.5 million people [who have] lost their houses, which are abroad, everywhere. We need them to come back to Ukraine just to live and to build their country."

Russia has often rejected ceasefire deals with Ukraine, saying they would give Kyiv time to rearm themselves.

VIDEO: TRUMP SUGGESTS ZELENSKYY DOES NOT WANT TO END WAR WITH RUSSIA

"There will be no ceasefire to bring him back to his senses and pump him full of weapons," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last week, according to the Interfax news agency.

Zelenskyy said on X Wednesday that "Russia strikes our country virtually every hour."

"Of course, we are not losing this war. But we are losing people. Because of the Russian attacks, we're losing people and time. It's such a pity, because our children don't have a real life and childhood. Not only children, but all people," he wrote in another post.

"That's why we need to end this war as quickly as possible. I hope that our partners, Americans and Europeans, will help us. God bless, our strong soldiers stay strong on the battlefield. It helps me stay strong during any kind of negotiations," Zelenskyy added.

The remarks come as President Donald Trump on Wednesday secured the release of Stephen Hubbard from Russia, a retired U.S. teacher who was locked up on charges of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Russian President Vladimir Putin also agreed Wednesday "in principle" to resume trilateral negotiations with the U.S. and Ukraine after Nov. 10, Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said, according to The Associated Press.

Fox News Digital's Alex Nitzberg contributed to this post.

President Donald Trump secured the release from Russia of a retired U.S. teacher who was locked up on charges of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine.

"Stephen Hubbard, taken four years ago by Russia during the Biden Administration, was just released from prison, at the request of President Donald J. Trump, made directly to President Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation last week," according to a Wednesday morning Truth Social post issued by Trump.

"Stephen is on his way back home and will soon be with his family. The United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return — an unprecedented situation for Russia. There was no ‘swap’ necessary for this release. This major return should have taken place long ago through the Biden Administration, which got nowhere in its negotiations with the Kremlin. Stephen is on his way back home. 

"'Welcome home Stephen, it’s great to have you back,'" Trump said, according to the post.

RUSSIA JAILS AMERICAN STEPHEN HUBBARD OVER FIGHTING AS A MERCENARY IN UKRAINE

Another Truth Social post issued by Trump added, "Numerous people, who requested that sanctions be immediately imposed on Russia, have called to apologize to President Trump in that they didn’t know that he was negotiating the release of Stephen Hubbard, a truly big and important deal for the U.S. If sanctions would have been placed, certainly those negotiations would have come to a complete and total halt."

The president added in another post, "Biden should have done the Hubbard release long ago! What a difference a President makes!"

Hubbard, a Michigan man, was sentenced in 2024 to almost seven years imprisonment. Prosecutors said he had signed a contract with the Ukrainian military after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, and that he fought alongside them until being captured two months later.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff told Russian President Vladimir Putin of Hubbard during a Wednesday meeting that "because of you, he's going home to his family."

TRUMP TRIES DIFFERENT APPROACH WITH RUSSIA TO BRING AMERICANS RELIEF AMID ONGOING WAR WITH UKRAINE

"He's a 75-year-old man," Witkoff said of Hubbard, describing Putin as a "humanitarian." Hubbard is actually 74-years-old.

President Trump noted on Tuesday that he had been in communication with Putin about Hubbard.

TRUMP WAIVES MANY RUSSIAN SANCTIONS, TARIFFS UNDER NEW LAW BACKED BY LINDSEY GRAHAM

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

"I've been talking to President Putin about Mr. Hubbard. I've been talking to him at length. I've asked him to release him," Trump said. "Let's see what happens."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Pope Leo XIV called Russian President Vladimir Putin while recovering from surgery in the hospital to urge him to call a ceasefire in the city of Oleshky in Ukraine.

"During the conversation, the Holy Father expressed his deep concern about the grave humanitarian situation in the city of Oleshky, in the Kherson region, and called for a ceasefire to allow the delivery of food and medical assistance and the voluntary and safe evacuation of the civilian population," the Vatican said in a statement.

"Finally, the Holy Father reaffirmed the Holy See’s commitment to promoting dialogue and peace."

TRUMP ANNOUNCES IMMEDIATE ENERGY CEASEFIRE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

The situation in Oleshky is dire with no humanitarian food deliveries allowed in the Russian-controlled city since May. It also has no electricity, gas or running water, and the hospital is barely functional.

The pope was diagnosed with lung cancer Tuesday and underwent a procedure to remove the lower lobe of his right lung.

The 71-year-old remained in the hospital recovering on Friday but seemed to be doing well.

Along with the call, he held Mass in a makeshift hospital chapel, and the Vatican released the first images of him since his surgery, which showed him standing at an altar.

POPE LEO XIV SEEN FOR FIRST TIME SINCE LUNG CANCER SURGERY AMID MAJOR RECOVERY MILESTONE

His doctors said he showed "continued improvement."

"His post-operative recovery allows him to carry out his normal daily activities completely on his own," a medical update signed by his personal physician, Luigi Carbone, and the head of thoracic surgery at Gemelli, Dr. Stefano Margaritora, said.

The pope is expected to deliver his traditional Angelus prayer service on Sunday either from the hospital or the Vatican.

TRUMP WISHES POPE LEO SPEEDY RECOVERY AFTER LUNG CANCER DIAGNOSIS, SPEAKS HIGHLY OF PONTIFF'S BROTHER

He is also still expected to travel to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru starting Nov. 6 as planned.

The Kremlin blames Ukraine for the situation in Oleshky with Putin giving the pope a "detailed explanation regarding the Kyiv regime’s responsibility for the difficult humanitarian situation there," the Kremlin said.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Putin also supports "the Vatican’s intention to help create conditions for ensuring the safety of the local population and facilitating the delivery of essential supplies," the Kremin added.