Military

Russians try to sneak toward Zaporizhzhia through the dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir. Ukrainian intelligence captures three. Russian sabotage groups are using the overgrown bed of the reservoir Moscow drained to slip behind Ukrainian lines, and one captive in the footage says a bomber drone killed most of his group.

A diesel tank burns at Transneft’s Druzhba hub as Ukraine keeps striking Russian energy despite Trump’s pressure. Russia’s state pipeline monopoly has said nothing, and the local governor described the site only as an enterprise, while residents posted video of the flames.

More ballistic missile interceptors and F-16 repairs inside Ukraine: Kyiv’s two asks to Lockheed Martin. The talks came as a batch of Patriot missiles that allies have already paid for awaits a Pentagon signature, Ukrainian officials say.

Russia’s Rubicon hunts Ukrainian drone pilots. In Vivaldi, it became the target, and its morale fell sharply, says the Ukrainian general. Biletskyi noted his corps spent drones without limit on every Rubicon position it found. As the operation ends, he hands the Third Corps to an acting commander.

Ukraine has identified nearly 46,000 foreigners from 151 countries in Russia’s army—and says Moscow is on pace to meet its 2026 hiring plan. Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs says this year’s contracts already roughly match all of 2025, while new names keep surfacing from earlier years.

Ukraine has liberated more territory than Russia has captured since the beginning of fall—a trend that has persisted throughout 2026, Zelenskyy says. Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian assaults and infiltration attempts in Dobropillia, the president said.

“This is a historic event”: Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade uses heavy hexacopter to fly wounded soldier off kill zone in world’s first aerial evacuation of this kind. The position proved too mined and too hunted for the ground robots.

Intelligence and technology

US restores ballistic missile warnings to Ukraine after a week without advance notice before Russian attacks, Zelenskyy says. Ukraine had received no advance alerts during multiple Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv over the last week, leaving no time to alert civilians before the missiles hit.

Is a Russian drone near you right now? Ukrainians have developed maps that track drones in near real time. Some drones never appear on it at all, so its makers say an empty screen is no proof of safety.

Rubio thinks Starlink is fixed. Kyiv says it still cuts out above 161 km/h. The two sides do not agree even on which service was capped.

Fifteen months ago, Ukraine’s online arms store for front-line units didn’t exist. Now, it delivers 1 in 5 drones that state buys. More than 500 combat units order drones, munitions, ground robots and electronic-warfare gear from it.

Kyiv gets no warning of the first of two Russian ballistic waves, hours after Zelenskyy said US alerts were back. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied any pause in intelligence-sharing and pointed to a software problem in Ukraine’s early-warning system a few nights earlier.

Ballistic missile warnings are back, but the Starlink cap stays, Zelenskyy says: Ukraine’s two US lifelines, one restored. Ukrainian drones still lose their connection above 161 km/h, too slow to catch Russia’s jet drones, he told NBC News.

International

Russia resumes diesel exports to Türkiye, Brazil, after Trump lifts sanctions on fuel supplies, boosting Moscow’s war revenue – Reuters. Moscow has lifted its export ban, with US sanctions relief opening the way for renewed sales even as Russia continues to face domestic fuel supply pressures.

South Korea will pull staff from Kyiv over North Korean POW handover made public at the UN. Korean officials put the cut at about half the embassy’s staff. Ukraine’s foreign minister calls the matter closed.

Russia has “behaved quite decently” toward Ukraine, Trump says, on the same day a Russian drone killed a one-year-old in a public park. Trump criticized Zelenskyy’s approach to peace negotiations on the same day a Russian drone killed six people, including a 14-month-old girl, in Kharkiv Oblast. Meanwhile, gaps in advance warnings for Russian ballistic attacks on Kyiv have raised further concerns about US support.

No warning, capped Starlink, unsigned Patriots: Zelenskyy lists US holds to senators as Kyiv reads them as pressure. He said he offered US envoys a 30-day pause on refinery strikes in exchange for Patriots. A US official disputed Kyiv’s account of the Patriot hold.

Lithuania’s armed forces chief says patrols on the Kaliningrad border have practically doubled as the troop mission runs into mid-November. Raimundas Vaikšnoras links the deployment to what he calls Russian preparations for a large-scale mobilization, saying Moscow lacks people for Ukraine.

Trump defends Russia sanctions waiver, says he does not want to drive Moscow from talks. He blamed Zelenskyy’s refinery strikes for diesel prices, while Rubio said Trump would take up to 60 days to assess the measures.

EU paid Russia 682 million euros for steel in eight months, with slab loophole keeping money flowing, and big consumers lobbying to keep it open — analysis. Bans cut most Russian metal, but an exemption lets slabs reach Belgium and Italy until 2028.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian drone kills six in Kharkiv Oblast park, including mother and her 14-month-old in a stroller. Hours later, Ukraine shows photos to US senators. A Russian drone strike killed two children and four adults, while 15 people, including seven children, were injured, a local official said.

Most Ukrainians reject giving Russia all of Donbas. Support for resistance on rose to 62% after new US pressure, poll finds. The share ready to endure the war climbed as Washington eased Russian sanctions and cut Ukraine’s intelligence, and as Russia hammered its cities.

Political and legal developments

31 in May, 63 now: Ukraine’s arms makers pile into a regime of tax breaks and shielded data. The 32 firms that joined since May bring under a quarter of the early members’ average weapons revenue, by Euromaidan Press calculations.

Ukraine finally voted to tax cheap foreign parcels to unlock €3.7 billion—now Brussels decides whether it was enough, with a €70 billion gap ahead amid ongoing war. Parliament needed three tries to pass the tax, and nobody has yet signed up to pay the bigger bill for Russia’s war in 2027.

Two Germans charged in absentia over Bulgaria’s Starlink fire, one of three recent attacks on satellite links Ukraine relies on against Russia. Prosecutors say the men crossed in from Serbia as tourists, set the antennas alight within hours, and left the same night.

Ukraine opens its first war-crime case against a ship captain for carrying off 54,000 tons of its stolen grain. Ukraine opens a war-crime case over the Matros Pozynich captain.

Read our previous daily review here.

Russian diesel shipments are returning to Türkiye and Brazil after Moscow lifted its export ban and the US temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian fuel supplies, Reuters reported on 20 October, citing shipping data from Kpler and LSEG.

The resumption of exports gives Russia another source of revenue to support its war against Ukraine, allowing Moscow to profit from fuel sales despite the domestic shortages that prompted its export ban. The US sanctions relief is helping Russia restore access to international buyers while its full-scale invasion continues.

According to Reuters, at least two tankers carrying Russian diesel have departed the Baltic port of Primorsk for Türkiye and Brazil in recent days. Each vessel is carrying around 300,000 barrels, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Morocco has also resumed importing Russian diesel since the export ban was lifted.

Russia ended its self-imposed diesel export ban on 9 October after reaching a deal with US President Donald Trump to resume fuel supplies to global markets. Moscow had introduced the ban to address domestic shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Those supply problems have not been resolved, but the US temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel supplies as part of the deal, allowing Moscow to prioritize export opportunities despite domestic shortages. EU and UK embargoes on Russian fuel imports remain in force.

Russian diesel exports remain below last year's levels

Russian diesel exports averaged around 345,000 barrels per day in 2026 so far, down 41% from the previous year, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. Exports had already fallen during the summer before Moscow imposed its ban.

Türkiye accounted for around 34% of Russian diesel loadings this year, followed by Brazil at 24% and Morocco at 10%, Kpler data showed.

Trump said Russia would initially export 300,000 metric tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons afterward. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could raise exports to as much as 3.5 million metric tons per month by the end of the year.

US seeks to ease diesel prices

The deal comes as Trump seeks to present a picture of bringing down diesel prices ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November. Fuel prices have risen amid disruptions to global energy supplies caused by Trump's war with Iran, which has shaken oil markets and raised concerns about supply routes.

Trump has blamed Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure for driving up energy prices, despite the broader market disruption caused by his war with Iran. The Russian diesel deal offers a way to increase global fuel supplies, but also allows Moscow to earn revenue from exports while its war against Ukraine continues.

However, the volumes from Russia initially outlined by Trump would cover only a small share of the global supply shortfall. 

South Korea will withdraw more staff from its embassy in Kyiv, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Park Doo-soon said on 20 October. Seoul says Kyiv broke an understanding to keep the transfer of two North Korean prisoners of war confidential, which was meant to protect the soldiers and their families in the North. Seoul had conveyed its position through several channels but received no sufficient response from Kyiv, Park added.

The Korea Herald noted, the move comes amid a dispute with the host government itself. That matters beyond the two countries. Good ties with Kyiv serve South Korea’s interests, AP reported earlier this month, citing experts, because Ukraine could share intelligence on North Korea’s expanding cooperation with Russia and its battlefield experience.

Seoul shrinks its Kyiv mission

Officials put the planned withdrawal at about half the embassy’s staff. The Korea Herald added that the timing has yet to be set. A chargé d’affaires and all consular staff will stay in Kyiv to keep diplomatic contacts and protect South Korean citizens.

Zelenskyy told the UN General Assembly in September that Ukraine had transferred two captured North Korean soldiers to South Korea. Ukrainian forces had captured both men in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in January 2025, where Pyongyang had sent troops to fight for Moscow.

On 6 October, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said Sybiha’s messages included words of apology but fell short of what Seoul expected. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi replied that Sybiha had written he regretted the situation reaching an exchange of critical comments.

In an interview published on 12 October, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told the dispute stemmed from differing readings of confidentiality at various stages of the transfer. He considers the matter closed. “Ukraine fulfilled all its obligations.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the US has restored intelligence sharing with Ukraine, including advance warnings of Russian ballistic missile launches, following talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The lack of advance warnings came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. US intelligence usually alerts Ukraine to ballistic missile launches before air raid sirens sound, giving the country time to warn civilians and prepare its air defenses. Russian ballistic missiles can reach Kyiv within minutes, making early notice critical to protecting lives.

Zelenskyy made the announcement on 20 October during a press conference broadcast by Suspilne. He said he had spoken with Rubio earlier that morning while traveling to Oslo, discussing intelligence, Starlink satellite communications, missile interceptors, and Patriot air defense systems.

“We discussed sensitive issues, including Starlink, interceptors, which are very important, and intelligence. We were very specific; the conversation was very positive,” Zelenskyy said.

He added that he plans to speak with Rubio again within the next 48 hours.

On 18 October, Zelenskyy also said that US warnings had returned, which turned out not to be true as Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv that evening before air raid sirens sounded.

Kyiv went days without advance warnings of Russian missiles

The warning gaps began with Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv on 12 October and continued through 19 October. During the attacks on 12 and 13 October, Ukraine received no advance warning from its partners, with air raid alerts sounding only after the attacks had begun.

The problem persisted during subsequent attacks. Overnight on 18–19 October, Russia attacked Kyiv in two waves. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said no warning arrived before the first wave, around 23:00. Information arrived before the second wave, around 03:00, but left little time to respond.

Advance intelligence on ballistic missile launches is particularly important because these missiles can reach their targets within minutes, leaving little time for civilians to seek shelter.

Washington denies suspending intelligence sharing

US President Donald Trump previously denied that Washington had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, despite the missing warnings. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also rejected claims of a suspension, pointing to a software problem in Ukraine's early-warning system. 

However, the disruptions came amid reports that the Trump administration had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing and weapons supplies unless Kyiv halted attacks on Russian oil refineries. The Financial Times reported that Washington was pressuring Ukraine to stop the strikes as part of efforts to secure an energy truce with Russia. 

Ukraine temporarily paused attacks on Russian refineries but said Moscow continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Zelenskyy's latest statement indicates that advance ballistic missile warnings are reaching Ukraine again, although the recent gaps have raised questions about the reliability of a capability critical to protecting civilians.

Ukrainians can now check a free live map of where Russian attack targets are flying, a Ukrainian air-threat monitoring project called monitor announced on X on 13 October. The beta pulls public reports of drones in flight into a single view and lays them over official air raid alerts.

Russia now flies jet-powered drones, and some switch off their engines before an attack and glide in. Over a hundred drones can arrive in one night. Yet since September, drone-only yellow alerts in some Oblasts no longer shut everything down. So during drone alerts, some Ukrainians now stay at their desks rather than in shelters. The new maps offers them a quick look at the sky from a phone, even on a weak signal.

What the map shows

The launch post described the service as one that tries to show where each target is, using open sources and algorithmic processing. It said the beta focuses on drones, with other targets to follow.

The drone data does not come from radar. The service draws on regional Telegram channels that post where drones and missiles are flying over their own oblasts. It cross-checks those posts to estimate what each target is, roughly where it is, and where it is heading, the project explains. The same page already lists cruise and ballistic missiles among the targets. It also says the map is free, ad-free, and needs no registration, and that it runs in a browser or on Telegram, designed to work on a phone with a weak signal.

A target log lists each drone’s district and course. Alert data comes from alerts.in.ua, and areas under alert turn red or yellow. The map refreshes about every 20 seconds while targets are airborne.

However, the developers warn that the dots are only estimates and show up late. Some targets slip through untracked. That is why “an empty map does not mean you are safe,” they wrote. When sirens sound, they urge people to rely on official signals and take shelter.

On 17 October, the Defense Ministry said that Ukraine’s Air Alert app now maps the approximate position and heading of some targets. These include cruise missiles, Banderol drone-launched missiles, and Shahed-type drones. The data comes straight from the Air Force over secure channels.

For security reasons, it carries no exact coordinates or real-time tracking and may lag. Ballistic missiles and anything faster than 2,000 km/h don’t appear at all. The ministry’s advice matches monitor’s: get to a shelter first, then check the map from there.

Fighters of the Bratstvo Battalion, part of the Timur Special Unit of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), captured three Russian servicemen and gave first aid to one of them, HUR reported on 19 October. They also found and destroyed Russian sabotage groups, HUR said, adding that counter-sabotage operations in the Zaporizhzhia direction are ongoing.

Russian forces have spent months trying to get closer to Zaporizhzhia, one of Ukraine’s largest cities. They may try to use the dried-up bed of the Kakhovka Reservoir to infiltrate north toward it as autumn fog and dense vegetation set in, the Institute for the Study of War reported on 26 September. Ukrainian troops are now clearing the area of Russian saboteurs trying to get into the rear of Ukrainian positions, according to HUR.

HUR’s video shows the fighting and the captures, with one dead Russian soldier blurred. At the end, a captured Russian says two of the three men in his group were killed by a “Baba Yaga,” the nickname Russian troops use for Ukraine’s heavy bomber drones.

HUR described what the Russian groups are trying to do:

“Using small sabotage groups, the enemy is attempting to penetrate deep into the rear positions of Ukraine’s Defense Forces, build up forces to destabilize the situation, disrupt logistics, and neutralize Ukrainian defenders’ combat crews.”

Russia seeks to bring the front closer to Zaporizhzhia

Russia’s objective in the Zaporizhzhia direction is to advance within artillery range of the city, hold forward positions, and protect its rear from Ukrainian strikes, the Institute for the Study of War noted.

In January, Russian forces were trying to capture Stepnohirsk and advance along the shore of the former Kakhovka Reservoir toward Zaporizhzhia. Taking the settlement would let Russian troops place long-range artillery or fiber-optic drones there to strike the city’s outskirts, Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn told Ukrinform on 14 January.

On 22 September, Anastasiia Shevchenko, spokesperson for the Southern Forces Group, said there were no signs of preparations for a direct offensive on Zaporizhzhia and that Russian forces lacked the troops and means to advance directly toward the city.

Dense vegetation and limited visibility: combat on the reservoir bed

The Kakhovka Reservoir was a vast artificial body of water on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine that supplied water to millions of people, as well as to agriculture and industry. On 6 June 2023, Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Southern Operational Command reported.

After the dam was destroyed, the bed of the former reservoir quickly became overgrown with willows, poplars, and shrubs, creating a new battlefield. Ukrainian troops have fought there before.

In November 2025, fighters from the same Bratstvo unit carried out a reconnaissance and sabotage operation 7 kilometers from the shoreline of the former reservoir, HUR said. They found and eliminated Russian troops, then raised the Ukrainian flag over the islands there and took control of the area.

In April, the Bratstvo unit’s chief of staff, who goes by the call sign “Dyviziia,” described the conditions on an earlier raid across the reservoir bed:

“You’re just constantly moving through these thickets, with no way to figure out which direction to go. You can literally see everything just two meters ahead of you.”

US President Donald Trump said Russia has been “fine” toward Ukraine and suggested Kyiv should appoint someone else other than President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate on its behalf, even as Russian forces continue attacks across Ukraine and Washington faces questions over its support for Kyiv.

His comments came as Russia continues striking Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, with regular attacks killing civilians and damaging residential buildings and energy facilities. Russia has waged a violent war against Ukraine for more than 12 years, seeking to seize Ukrainian territory and undermine the country’s sovereignty, with widespread violence, grave human rights abuses, and killings of civilians throughout the conflict.

Speaking to reporters on 19 October, Trump said Zelenskyy should have settled the war long ago and could have secured a better deal by following his advice. He accused the Ukrainian president of not doing enough to end the war, claiming that Zelenskyy did not want to stop the fighting. Trump said he wanted the war to end and argued that Russia had “been fine” toward Ukraine, adding that Moscow “hasn’t been doing much.”

On the same day, a Russian drone struck a park near a cafe in Kharkiv Oblast, killing six people, including a 14-month-old girl killed in her stroller and an 11-year-old girl. Another 14 people were injured, including six children, according to Ukrainian officials.

Russian attacks intensify as Kyiv loses advance warnings

Russian attacks across Ukraine have intensified in recent months, with large-scale drone strikes, missile attacks, and repeated hits on energy infrastructure. The attacks have killed civilians, damaged homes and businesses, and disrupted electricity and other essential services.

Kyiv has faced repeated Russian ballistic missile attacks without the advance warnings Ukraine normally receives from international partners. The latest attack on 19 October again raised concerns about gaps in warning time, leaving residents with little time to reach shelter.

The repeated gaps have fueled concerns about Ukraine’s access to intelligence amid reports of restrictions on some US support. Ukrainian officials warned that missing launch data could weaken the country’s ability to detect incoming ballistic missiles, while Washington denied halting intelligence sharing.

Republicans push back against Trump's Russia policy

Trump's approach has drawn criticism from members of his own party, particularly over his decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy exports and his broader efforts to reach an agreement with Moscow, according to POLITICO.

Republican lawmakers have questioned whether easing pressure on Russia will help end the war or instead give the Kremlin additional revenue and leverage while its military continues attacking Ukraine. The dispute has exposed divisions within the party over how to handle Putin and the future of US support for Kyiv.

The sanctions relief followed a broader push toward economic engagement with Moscow. On 18 October, Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had urged Zelenskyy in September to consider restoring Russian gas transit through Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal.

The proposal would revive a trade that Europe has spent years reducing because of its dependence on Russian energy. Renewed Russian energy exports could provide Moscow with additional revenue while its war against Ukraine continues.

Trump on Ukraine:

Maybe it's time for Zelensky to get somebody else to negotiate. pic.twitter.com/BA5kKSuONC

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 19, 2026

Pressure on Kyiv as Washington considers closer ties with Moscow

Trump's comments add to tensions between Washington and Kyiv over the terms of a potential peace agreement and the level of US support for Ukraine. His suggestion that Ukraine change its negotiator raises further questions about whether his administration is willing to accept Kyiv's position in talks over its own future.

Zelenskyy has urged Washington to maintain pressure on Moscow rather than offer economic concessions. Ukrainian officials have also called for continued military assistance, particularly air defense systems, as Russia continues its campaign against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.

The contrast between Trump's description of Russia's conduct and the situation on the ground remains stark. While Trump says Moscow has behaved relatively decently, Russian forces continue to launch attacks that kill civilians, damage homes, and threaten Ukraine's energy supply. The lack of advance warning before recent ballistic strikes on Kyiv has added to concerns about the consequences of reduced or unreliable US support.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 20 October that he had spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about ballistic missile interceptors, early warning of Russian launches, and “the situation with Starlink/Starshield, which needs to be restored,” he wrote on X. He thanked Rubio for “his readiness to help and his clear position” and said they would speak again soon. A day earlier, he had told US senators how each of those supplies had stalled.

This comes as the US presses Kyiv to stop its strikes on Russian oil refineries, which Trump has blamed for high fuel prices at home, and Zelenskyy counts the Starlink slowdown among the steps he says look like an effort to push Ukraine to capitulate. Ukraine’s interceptor drones depend on the service to hunt Russia’s jet-powered Shaheds, and Kyiv says they now lose the link at speeds too low to catch them. The call appears not to have settled whether that cap is gone. If it stays, Ukrainian cities could face Russia’s drone waves this winter with one fewer means to stop them, as Russia keeps striking the grid.

On 17 October, Rubio told reporters that nobody in the US ordered Starlink slowed, that the slowdown “wasn’t deliberate,” and that “my understanding is it’s been restored.” He drew a line between the two services. Ukraine’s drones, he said, ran on commercial Starlink, while Starshield, the military version, is not available to Ukraine. Kyiv has asked for it to carry out strikes deep inside Russia, and that request is under discussion, he said.

The next day, Zelenskyy told Bloomberg that Starlink in Ukraine cuts out above 161 km/h, and Kyiv says its Starshield terminals are capped as well. His post after the call still says the service needs to be restored.

Reuters’ sources point to the White House. Washington denies it

The order to slow Starshield came from inside the White House, Reuters reported, citing two US officials and a Western official. They described it as the Starshield service for the Ukrainian military, the version Rubio says Ukraine does not have. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Kyiv had been told it was a White House decision. A senior US official told the agency the president never made such a request, and the White House did not answer whether other officials had. Rubio called a report that the White House ordered Starlink slowed “categorically false.”

Missile warnings and Patriots are also in dispute

Overnight on 18–19 October, Ukraine got no partner warning before the first of two Russian ballistic waves, Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said on the national telethon. That came hours after Zelenskyy said US warnings had resumed. On 19 October, Rubio pushed back against suggestions of a pause in US intelligence sharing, AFP reported.

Zelenskyy also told Bloomberg the US sends only 12 Patriot interceptors a month and has authorized only part of those “we have paid for” under PURL. Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not signed the contracts. A US government official called those claims “not true.”

Drones attacked an oil and fuel pumping station of Russia’s Druzhba pipeline system in Tambov Oblast overnight on 20 October, setting a diesel tank on fire, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ reported, citing locals. Druzhba, Russian for “friendship,” is a Soviet-era oil pipeline, about 4,000 km long, that carries Russian crude west to Europe, including through a branch that crosses Ukraine. The struck station is on its Russian section. Tambov Oblast Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov confirmed a fire at an unnamed enterprise in Michurinsk district after what he called a Ukrainian drone attack. The station lies about 400 km from the front line.

Ukraine has spent months striking the refineries, terminals, and pipelines that fund Russia’s war, and its Defense Ministry says the strikes have knocked out more than half of Russia’s refining capacity. Washington wants them stopped. US officials reportedly tied intelligence sharing to a halt in refinery strikes, and US President Donald Trump called their resumption “a disgrace.”

Hours of attack before dawn

Russia’s regional alert system declared a drone threat at 03:38, Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi reported. By 06:25, Exilenova+ said the Nikolskoye station was under attack, after Michurinsk had been under attack for several hours.

The Nikolskoye fuel pumping station in Russia’s Tambov region is under attack. pic.twitter.com/cA64vMgjsM

— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) October 20, 2026

Pervyshov said four Ukrainian drones were shot down over the region and no one was hurt. He did not name the site.

More footage from the Nikolskaya oil pumping station. Locals report that a tank containing diesel is on fire. pic.twitter.com/1jvbxSuGHo

— Exilenova+ (@Exilenova_plus) October 20, 2026

Ukraine has not commented. The General Staff’s 20 October list of overnight strikes does not mention Tambov Oblast.

A Druzhba fuel hub hit before

The Nikolskoye station belongs to Transneft, Russia’s state pipeline operator. It stores and pumps crude oil and refined fuels, including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. The complex has three tank farms and two pumping stations, and it can move up to 300,000 tonnes a day, according to Current Time.

Ukrainian drones hit a station of the same hub in August 2025, and Ukraine’s General Staff said then that pumping on the pipeline had stopped completely.

Strikes resume despite US pressure

Ukraine paused refinery strikes for three days after Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on 11 October, while Russia fired 39 ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s grid. Since Kyiv resumed the strikes, drones have also hit an oil terminal and a fuel depot in St. Petersburg.

Kyiv reads other US moves as pressure too, from missed warnings of Russian ballistic launches to a Starlink cap that slows Ukrainian drones. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy told US senators he had offered a 30-day halt on refinery strikes in exchange for Patriot interceptors, but Trump’s envoys showed no openness.

Ukraine is counting on buying part of Lockheed Martin’s growing output of ballistic missile interceptors, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. He met the US company’s team in Kyiv on 19 October and also raised servicing and repairing F-16 fighter jets inside Ukraine.

Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s power grid with ballistic missiles, and interceptor supplies fall short of that threat. Kyiv is working every route to more Patriot missiles, from US deliveries to allies’ stocks, and some have stalled. Greece, for one, has not confirmed it will hand any over, citing its own defense needs. A purchase from the missiles’ maker would add one more route.

Growing output, F-16 repairs in Ukraine

Lockheed Martin builds the PAC-3 MSE interceptors fired by Patriot air defense systems, as well as the F-16. Zelenskyy said both matter against Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered Shahed drones. Neither area is easy right now, he added.

“We count on the opportunity to purchase some of them to protect more lives,” he wrote.

On 28 July, Zelenskyy met the company in Washington to discuss joint production. That came weeks after US President Donald Trump pledged Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriots.

A batch reportedly stuck in Washington

Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not signed off on a “significant” batch of Patriot missiles, Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent. One official said allies had already paid for them. A US government official called the claims untrue, and the Pentagon did not respond. A NATO official said allied-funded deliveries, including air defense, continue. A second NATO official said some shipments could be delayed, but likely not for political reasons.

Zelenskyy told Bloomberg on 18 October that the US delivers only 12 Patriot interceptors a month. On 20 October, interceptors topped his list in a call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

No purchase was announced, so new interceptors from this route remain a prospect. Meanwhile, partners’ early warnings of Russian ballistic launches have gone missing three times recently, Zelenskyy wrote. Those warnings give air defenses extra minutes to prepare.

Six people were killed in a Russian strike in the settlement of Nova Vodolaha in Kharkiv Oblast, including girls aged 1 and 11. Another 15 people were injured, including seven children, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on 20 October. Russian forces struck a park with a drone while families with children were there, Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Vyhivskyi said.

Russian forces continue to attack Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office has opened a war-crime investigation into the strike. The strike was aimed at people, Yurii Yurchenko, head of a police department in Kharkiv Oblast, said in a comment to Suspilne.

The 14-month-old girl was named Anhelina

The Russian drone circled the park several times before crashing, Yurchenko said. He said the drone struck a tree near a café, and the blast wave and shrapnel hit people at the establishment. The attack came at around 16:30, the prosecutor’s office said, adding that Russian forces had preliminarily used a Geran-3 drone.

The Russian strike killed three women, aged 28, 34 and 36, a man around 40 years old, and two girls, aged 14 months and 11 years, Syniehubov said in his statement.

The youngest girl, named Anhelina, was born in August 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Her mother, Inna, died in the hospital, he added.

Zelenskyy shows US senators photos of the aftermath the same day

Zelenskyy met with US Senators Richard Blumenthal and Thom Tillis, along with their colleagues from both parties and both chambers of Congress, according to a 19 October post on his social media accounts. During the meeting, he discussed the Russian attack in Kharkiv Oblast and showed lawmakers photographs from the scene, including one of the infant who was killed in a stroller.

“This is how Russia responds to the lifting of sanctions and the easing of pressure,” he said in the post.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine needs air defense and that no one should think about making money with Russia while it continues its war. He asked that sanctions on Russia stay in place until the killing stops, urged the US to “be strong” and apply Lindsey Graham’s law, and called on Europe to keep supporting Ukraine.

Defence City, Ukraine’s special support regime for arms makers, now has 63 member companies, the Defense Ministry said in a 19 October release. That is more than double the late-May count, and Euromaidan Press calculations show the newcomers are, on average, much smaller firms.

Ukraine already buys most of its weapons at home. More than 75% of its 2025 weapons procurement budget went to domestic manufacturers. Most new weapons models cleared for military use are Ukrainian too: 892 of the 1,000 authorized from the start of 2026 to mid-June. Defence City is meant to turn that demand into more production capacity, and our calculations suggest it is now reaching smaller producers too.

Who is joining

Each resident’s figure in the ministry’s count is its qualified income, meaning revenue from selling weapons and military equipment. Applicants file details of their defense contracts for the previous calendar year with their application, the ministry’s guide shows. So the combined total changes as members join. It does not track month-to-month sales.

The 63 current residents have a combined qualified income of nearly $2.47 billion. At the end of May, 31 residents had $2 billion, the ministry reported. By July, 45 residents had over $2.07 billion, it added.

By Euromaidan Press calculations, the 32 companies added since May bring about $15 million each on average. The first 31 averaged about $64 million each. The math assumes all 31 early members remain, with unchanged figures. If they do, the newcomers are smaller producers on average, because each figure reflects a firm’s own prior-year weapons sales.

What residents get

The profit-tax break comes with a condition. Residents choose where their untaxed profit goes, but it must go to purposes the tax code allows, the ministry explained. If the money goes elsewhere, the break does not apply.

Residents also get customs incentives and state support to relocate plants and better protect production sites. They can rent state property without an auction. They can also ask to restrict access to sensitive information about them in public registries. Some defense export procedures are simplified too.

Resident status also makes a company eligible to be designated critically important to the defense industry. That lets it defer up to 100% of its staff liable for military service from the draft, the ministry noted.

To join, a company must confirm it meets the legal requirements and file an application with supporting documents. By law, the ministry has 10 working days to decide. If approved, a ministerial order grants the status, and the company enters the Defence City register.

Russia’s Rubicon drone unit, which is sent to hunt Ukrainian drone pilots, was not used to being hunted itself, Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi told journalists on 19 October. He was summing up Operation Vivaldi, which his Third Army Corps fought in northern Donetsk Oblast from May to mid-October. Once its pilots realized they were being killed, Rubicon’s morale dropped sharply, he said.

Russia has fought for 12 years to take all of Donetsk Oblast, and Sloviansk and Kramatorsk anchor the fortress belt of cities Ukraine still holds there. Vivaldi retook 277 km² in northern Donetsk Oblast. Biletskyi says it destroyed Russia’s bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River and forced Moscow to drop its plan to bypass Lyman from the north and encircle the two cities. On that front, the Third Corps had flagged Rubicon, Russia’s elite drone unit, as a threat.

Hunting the hunters

Once a Rubicon position was found, the Third Assault Brigade and the KRAKEN drone regiment committed any number of FPV and bomber drones to destroy its crews, Biletskyi said.

The brigade’s commander, Yaroslav Levenets, said his troops prepared for Rubicon’s arrival and concentrated on killing its pilots. He gave no details.

“Not stable in defense,” Levenets said of Rubicon’s troops.

They dislike sitting in trenches, he said, and under pressure they grow nervous and change positions.

Named for four seasons

Biletskyi said the name was chosen at the very start of planning, in winter 2025–2026, many months before the operation began. The original plan had four stages, one for each season, and later grew to slightly more, ArmyInform reported.

When he first unveiled the operation in September, he put it this way:

“Vivaldi, as is known, has four seasons. And this is only the first one.”

He credited two planners, known by the call signs Yurist and Leshyi. Leshyi, an assault soldier wounded seven times who later moved to staff work, was killed. Yurist was seriously wounded.

A new hand at the Third Corps

Major Dmytro Rohoziuk is now acting commander of the Third Army Corps, the corps press service said on 20 October. The press service said the move is not a transfer, and Biletskyi keeps his formal post as corps commander while he leads the “Center” grouping of the Third, 11th, and 19th corps.

Rohoziuk took over the 60th Mechanized Brigade in October 2025. Its previous commander was arrested in January after the State Bureau of Investigation accused him of embezzling about $1 million in weapons procurement. The brigade fought in all four phases of Vivaldi and retook Kolodiazi without street fighting.

Biletskyi also declined command of the Ground Forces, which oversee mobilization.

“There’s no point taking on something you don’t truly believe you can improve,” he said.

Biletskyi’s count

Russian losses in Vivaldi topped 8,000 troops, and about 270 Russian soldiers were taken prisoner, Biletskyi said. More than 20 officers surrendered, including a chief of staff and three company commanders.

The territory matters less than disrupting Russia’s strategic plan, he said. Russian forces still press toward Dobropillia, where Ukraine is counterattacking.

Ukraine got no early warning from its partners of the first wave of Russian ballistic missiles on the night of 18–19 October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told US senators on 19 October. He also said Starlink and Starshield terminals still stop working above certain speeds on parts of the front, and that Washington has explained neither problem. In the same video call, according to a transcript obtained by Axios, he said US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not signing off on deliveries of Patriot interceptors and AIM-9X missiles for NASAMS that NATO countries have already paid for.

This comes as the US presses Kyiv to stop its strikes on Russian oil refineries, which Trump has blamed for high fuel prices at home. Washington supplies both the early launch warnings and the Patriot interceptors Ukraine needs against Russian ballistic missiles, and Zelenskyy says both are now failing at once, as Russia keeps firing ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s grid ahead of winter. If neither the warnings nor the interceptors come through, Ukrainian cities would face winter strikes with less notice and fewer means to stop them.

On the morning of 20 October, Zelenskyy wrote that he had spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about interceptors against ballistic missiles, early warning of Russian ballistic attacks, and restoring Starlink and Starshield. He thanked Rubio for his readiness to help and his clear position, and said they had agreed to speak again soon. He did not say whether anything had been resolved.

Patriots paid for, not signed

“We have almost no Patriot interceptors left from the US partners,” Zelenskyy told the senators.

Hegseth “has the contracts for Patriot missiles on his desk,” a Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent, adding that allies had already paid for them. Another senior official called the batch “significant.” One of the main channels for Ukraine’s Patriot supply is NATO’s PURL mechanism, under which allies fund purchases of US weapons for Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian military official told the outlet.

On 19 October, Zelenskyy wrote that some types of vital supplies were being delayed at the US Department of War, as the Trump administration also calls the Pentagon. He added that some political agreements had not been carried out at the working level.

A NATO official told the Kyiv Independent that PURL deliveries, including air defense, were continuing. Another said some shipments could face delays, but that political reasons were unlikely to explain them. A US government official called Ukraine’s claims “not true.” The Pentagon did not respond to the outlet.

No warning for Kyiv hours after Zelenskyy said US alerts were back

On 18 October, Zelenskyy said on NBC that US warnings of ballistic launches had resumed after three days without them. That night, Russia launched two ballistic waves at Ukraine, and information from partners did not arrive before the first, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said. Zelenskyy told the senators Ukraine had not received US warnings on three occasions in the past week. “We have received no clear explanation from Washington,” he said.

“All of this suggests that some political decision has been made to slow down support for us,” Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy offered a 30-day pause on refinery strikes for Patriots

Zelenskyy told the senators he had offered US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner a 30-day halt on strikes against Russian refineries. In return, the US would supply Patriot interceptors to cover that period. He said the envoys had shown no openness to the idea.

On 20 October, Norway announced talks in Oslo that day between Zelenskyy, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, with Witkoff attending in person and Kushner by video.

Senators back Kyiv. Trump says intelligence still flows

Senator Thom Tillis said he and his colleagues remain committed to standing with Ukraine and its European allies, while Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote that bipartisan support was “clear and unequivocal” and would be expressed “in upcoming action.”

US President Donald Trump told reporters on 19 October that Washington is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine and that he did not know who ordered the throttling of Starlink, Axios reported.

“Zelensky doesn’t know what he is talking about,” Trump said.

The European Commission is checking whether laws Ukraine’s parliament passed last week earn it a €3.7 billion ($4.3 billion) EU payment, spokesperson Balázs Ujvári told reporters in Brussels on 19 October. He also said Ukraine’s 2027 funding gap stands at about €70 billion, and that the EU “cannot do this all alone.” How Ukraine pays for Russia’s war next year now depends on reforms in Kyiv and on money from Europe and beyond.

Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s power grid and cities, and Kyiv already faces a hole in next year’s war budget before any new military spending. Foreign money keeps salaries, pensions, and repairs flowing while Ukraine spends its own revenue on defense. So each delayed payment is felt at home while Russia hits the energy system again.

Brussels reads Kyiv’s new laws before paying

The payment is the second tranche of the EU’s macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, and each one depends on reforms, Ujvári said at the Commission’s midday briefing.

“We saw that last week some important laws were adopted in the Rada, and we are in the process of analyzing these laws and we will formulate our assessment thereafter,” he said.

On its third attempt, parliament passed a law on 15 October ending the VAT exemption for foreign parcels worth up to €150 from 1 July 2027, and making online marketplaces collect the tax. The Commission had warned the law was one of 12 conditions for the tranche. Fewer than 1% of the 75 million parcels Ukrainians receive each year were taxed, and lawmakers had rejected the measure twice despite IMF pressure.

About €30 billion is in the pipeline for Ukraine this year, mostly under the EU’s €90 billion support loan, if reforms continue, Ujvári said.

A €70 billion gap for 2027

Current pledges leave a gap of about €70 billion for 2027, Ujvári said, even counting the €45 billion ($52 billion) the EU has set aside for next year and some partners’ commitments.

“We cannot do this all alone. Therefore, our partners in general must step up,” he said. “They have to come forward with pledges, and they have to deliver on those commitments.”

On 16 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked EU leaders for at least €70 billion more for 2027. They tasked the Commission with a proposal but set no deadline. Asked whether it would revisit using frozen Russian assets, Ujvári said it was “a little bit early” to discuss options in that detail. New EU borrowing has also grown costlier: 10-year rates rose from 3.2% to just above 4% in six months, he said.

The €90 billion loan was designed on the assumption that the war would end in 2026. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Slovakia and Hungary would opt out of new aid but would not block others.

Patrol density along Lithuania’s border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave has practically doubled since soldiers joined the border guards there in early October. Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander Raimundas Vaikšnoras told LRT this in an interview. He linked the deployment to provocations and to what he described as Russian preparations for a large-scale mobilization.

Kaliningrad is a piece of Russia wedged between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic Sea. Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said people would naturally flee a Russian mobilization. Earlier, on 11 August, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia planned to mobilize several hundred thousand people by the end of 2026, after its parliamentary vote.

Commander: Russia lacks troops for a breakthrough

Vaikšnoras said Russia is struggling in Ukraine and needs to fill gaps in its capabilities. Moscow would probably like a breakthrough but lacks people, he added. In July, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service estimated that Russia had signed about as many new military contracts this year as it had lost troops.

He also cited provocations. In Latvia, armed men recently tried to push migrants across the border, he noted, leaving open whether they were bandits or criminals. Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka denies everything, he added. On 6 October, Latvian Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava wrote that the escorts stood on the Belarusian side, were armed, and threatened Latvian soldiers.

Mission extended to mid-November

Lithuania decided to send troops after that Latvian incident. On 7 October, Interior Minister Martynas Katelynas asked Defense Minister Kaunas for troops to help the State Border Guard Service. Kaunas then approved up to 100 soldiers until 16 October, LRT reported.

On 16 October, Kaunas extended the mission to mid-November at Katelynas’s request. The Defense Ministry cited possible flows of people fleeing Kaliningrad and related illegal border crossings. It also said military intelligence sees no significant changes in military activity in Kaliningrad. Katelynas had earlier called the step preventive, BNS noted. He cited public, non-intelligence reports of a call-up planned after Russia’s parliamentary elections and said the threat level at the border had not risen.

Commander doubts Moscow’s intentions

Vaikšnoras said Russia and Belarus may not want open incidents that leave their traces right now. He added that he does not believe in their good intentions. He noted it has been said publicly that Russia’s capability in Kaliningrad is sharply reduced, because most of its forces are committed to Ukraine. Back in June 2025, Poland’s foreign minister said that, from what he knew, Russia had withdrawn a large part of its troops from the exclave.

Instead, hybrid attacks and sabotage that cannot be traced at once will probably continue, Vaikšnoras said. LRT noted the interview took place before a Ukrainian drone crashed in Pasvalys district on Sunday and before an attempted arson at premises used by SpaceX in Vilnius.

Ukraine holds personal data on each of the nearly 46,000 foreigners it has identified as signing with Russia’s army since 2022, Dmytro Usov, secretary of its prisoner-of-war coordination headquarters, said on 19 October. If the current pace holds, he expects this year’s contracts to reach Moscow’s plan. Meanwhile, a survey of captured foreigners gave a split answer on how many knew they were heading to war.

Usov said 41% of surveyed foreign POWs signed at enlistment offices and recruitment points, which the headquarters reads as a sign of a systematic campaign. He also said the hiring is meant to ease the social and budget burden of Russia’s own losses. Russia has long turned to foreigners to offset shortages in its regular forces. In April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said enlistment offices had reportedly been assigned regional quotas.

A count built name by name

Usov, a brigadier general and secretary of Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, spoke at the international conference Crimea Global. He said Russia’s Defense Ministry has signed 45,959 foreigners from 151 countries. Ukraine’s records include each one’s rank, dog tag, and contract date.

The figure counts everyone who signed, not only those serving now. In April, Usov said his count left out North Korea’s regular troops, that 25–30% more recruits were likely still unidentified, and that at least 5,149 foreign recruits had died, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

This year’s contracts near the plan

Contracts have grown every year: 94 in 2022, 4,067 in 2023, 8,877 in 2024, and 16,085 in 2025. Some names surface late. At the same April event, Interfax-Ukraine reported, Usov had put 2025 at 13,997 and said the headquarters adds newly identified foreigners every month.

For 2026, Russia’s Defense Ministry planned 18,500 foreign contracts. Ukraine knows of 16,168 so far, roughly level with all of 2025. Another 668 contracts still have no year assigned. If the same dynamic holds, Usov said, the ministry will fully meet its plan and may even exceed it.

He named Indonesia, Peru, Chad, and Zimbabwe among the ten countries that drove the growth in recruits, Ukrinform reported. At the same time, he said, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and POW agencies have cut recruitment in some countries and stopped it in others.

What captured foreigners told Ukraine

Ukrainian forces have captured citizens of 59 countries since the full-scale invasion began. Uzbeks, Tajiks, Belarusians, and Colombians are among the largest groups.

In the headquarters’ survey of foreign POWs, nearly half said they knew they would fight Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. Another 28% said they didn’t know, 14.8% weren’t sure, and 13.8% said they were deceived. The headquarters ran the survey, and neither report gave a sample size or explained how the shares fit together. Usov said the results showed most knew where they were going. Almost 47% said they signed up for Russian citizenship.

A Sofia court has cleared European arrest warrants for two 19-year-old Germans charged with setting fire to Starlink antennas south of the Bulgarian capital, a court spokeswoman told dpa. Prosecutors named the pair in court, but both had already left Bulgaria. The case adds Bulgaria to a run of attacks on Starlink sites in Europe, which Poland and Lithuania have linked to Russia.

While Russia presses its assault along the front and strikes Ukraine’s cities, Starlink keeps Ukraine’s drone units and front-line troops connected, and Poland pays about $50 million a year for its terminals. The network’s ground links in Europe are now a target in their own right, and ISW has linked the Polish fire to a wider Russian pattern of sabotage. Each attack on a ground station hits a network whose speed caps already disrupted Ukraine’s drone missions this month.

Two names, a few hours in Bulgaria

Prosecutors identified the suspects as Zeka Islam and Tirpan Beytullah, Bulgaria’s state news agency BTA reported, noting the names may be misspelled. Their whereabouts are unknown, according to German authorities cited by the agency. They were charged in absentia on 14 October and face three to 12 years in prison if convicted.

According to the indictment, the two crossed from Serbia at the Kalotina checkpoint at 17:37 on 9 October and told border officers they were tourists. At about 22:25, wearing gloves and masks, they allegedly set fire to antennas at the Plana teleport, a satellite ground station near the village of Plana. They drove back into Serbia through the same checkpoint at 23:55.

Three antennas burned completely, two were partly damaged, and three more were affected, prosecutors say. The pair traveled in a Volkswagen with German plates, and a national warrant followed two days after the charges, ZDF reported.

The court-appointed lawyers argued that investigators had pinned down the vehicle, not the men in it. The court rejected those objections, finding reasonable grounds to suspect the pair. The lawyers said they would appeal. The ruling can be challenged within three days.

An opposition MP made the fire public three days later

The fire became public only on 12 October, when opposition MP Ivaylo Mirchev of Democratic Bulgaria posted about it on Facebook. He said 11 antennas had been set on fire, more than prosecutors later counted.

In parliament two days later, Prime Minister Rumen Radev asked the head of the State Agency for National Security (DANS) not to reveal details, saying disclosure could harm the investigation. DANS head Plamen Tonchev told lawmakers he believes the fire was sabotage and that more such attacks cannot be ruled out, dpa reported.

After the ruling, Mirchev wrote that Radev personally owes the public an explanation of what has been achieved, BTA reported.

Bulgaria’s case joins attacks Poland and Lithuania tie to Russia

Bulgaria has not said who might be behind the fire. Authorities in Poland and Lithuania have linked similar recent arsons on Starlink equipment to Russia.

In September, fire hit a Starlink ground station south of Warsaw, and Germany later detained two suspects. On 18 October, Lithuania’s prime minister said intruders had tried to burn a company’s Starlink antennas used by Ukraine, calling it part of Russia’s hybrid war. Moscow claims such accusations are baseless, Reuters reported.

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, one of the less visible casualties was a corner of European retail finance: peer-to-peer lending. Many investors who had lent money through online marketplaces suddenly found loans tied to Russian and Ukrainian borrowers frozen, delayed or in limbo. Four years later, a new crisis at Europe's largest platform has sent many of them looking for Mintos alternatives, and the lessons of 2022 explain where that money is going.

A market built on Eastern European lenders

European P2P lending grew quickly in the 2010s, particularly from the Baltic states. Platforms such as Mintos, based in Riga, Latvia, let retail investors buy small slices of loans issued by lending companies across dozens of countries. Many of those lenders operated in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet space, where consumer credit offered high interest rates and the platforms could pass on returns of 10% or more.

That geographic concentration became a direct exposure when the war began. Sanctions cut payment channels with Russia. In Ukraine, borrowers and lenders faced a war economy, mass displacement and disrupted banking. Platforms had to decide, almost overnight, how to handle loan books that could no longer be serviced normally.

What happened to the money

The outcomes varied sharply, and that variation is the most useful part of the story.
Loans tied to Russian lenders largely became stuck. Sanctions made it difficult or impossible to move money out, and investors on several platforms saw those balances sit in recovery for years.

Ukrainian exposure played out differently in at least one widely watched case. PeerBerry, a platform whose lending group operated in Ukraine, had roughly €51 million of loans tied to Ukraine and Russia when the war began. Rather than writing them off, the group kept repaying in instalments and completed full repayment, with interest, by December 2024. For many investors, it became the clearest example of a lending business honouring obligations under extreme pressure.

The difference was not luck. It came down to who stood behind the loans, whether money could physically move, and whether the lending group chose to keep paying.

The 2026 shock at Mintos

This year brought a different kind of stress, unrelated to the war. Mintos investors had put more than €61 million into notes backed by Nera Capital, an Irish company that lends to U.K. law firms handling consumer claims. Since late March 2026, interest payments have been delayed after the U.K.'s Solicitors Regulation Authority began reviewing those firms. A principal payment due in May was missed, and by August industry trackers estimated that close to 29% of the platform's whole portfolio, including older cases, sat in recovery.

Investors who tried to sell their positions early reportedly found no buyers even at a 30% discount. Mintos remains a licensed investment firm and continues to operate, but for many users the episode recalled 2022: once again, money they believed was spread across many borrowers depended on a single chain of companies.

Where investors are moving

Few experienced investors are leaving P2P lending altogether. Instead, they are spreading money more deliberately, using the lessons of the war years:

• Geography matters. Investors now check where borrowers actually are and whether money can flow out of that country under sanctions or emergency rules.
• The lender behind the loan matters more than the platform. A buyback guarantee is only as strong as the company giving it, as 2022 showed.
• Regulation is a floor, not a shield. EU licensing protects investors if a platform itself fails, but not against bad loans.
• Liquidity is conditional. Secondary markets dry up exactly when everyone wants to sell. In practice, that has meant smaller allocations spread across several platforms, more interest in business and real-estate-backed lending, and closer attention to platforms that can document how they handled past defaults.

A lesson beyond lending

For Ukrainians, the war's financial shocks have been far heavier than frozen investment accounts. But the P2P episode illustrates something broader about how financial risk travels in wartime. Exposure that looks remote on a spreadsheet, a lending company in another country or a payment route through a sanctioned bank, can turn into real losses within days.

It also shows that some businesses kept their promises under the hardest possible conditions. Ukrainian lenders that continued repaying investors through the war did more than protect their reputations. They demonstrated that a functioning credit market can survive extraordinary pressure, a point that will matter as Ukraine rebuilds and seeks private investment.

What to take from it

Europe's P2P lending market has now been tested by a pandemic, a war and a regulatory shock in the U.K. Each crisis rewarded the same habits: know who borrows the money, know who stands behind the loans, and never assume an exit will be there when you need it. For investors reassessing their options in 2026, those habits matter more than any advertised rate.

Exclusive

Belgium’s 10 F-16s bring Ukraine’s promised fleet to about 100 jets. Fewer than 40 are flying, as Russia’s jet drones run them ragged. The rest arrive in batches through 2029, and every sortie against Russia's jet drones brings the jets already in Ukraine closer to long inspections abroad.

Russia still parks its best bombers in the open. Ukraine has spent a year knocking out the air defenses that were supposed to protect them. The Russian air force parked six Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers out in the open at a base within reach of Ukraine's Neptune cruise missiles. Now at least four are wreckage.

Military

Ukraine has liberated more territory than Russia has captured since the beginning of fall—a trend that has persisted throughout 2026, Zelenskyy says. Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian assaults and infiltration attempts in Dobropillia, the president said.

Intelligence and technology

Fifteen months ago, Ukraine’s online arms store for front-line units didn’t exist. Now, it delivers 1 in 5 drones that state buys. More than 500 combat units order drones, munitions, ground robots and electronic-warfare gear from it.

“This is a historic event”: Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade uses heavy hexacopter to fly wounded soldier off kill zone in world’s first aerial evacuation of this kind. The position proved too mined and too hunted for the ground robots.

International

Trump defends Russia sanctions waiver, says he does not want to drive Moscow from talks. He blamed Zelenskyy’s refinery strikes for diesel prices, while Rubio said Trump would take up to 60 days to assess the measures.

EU paid Russia 682 million euros for steel in eight months, with slab loophole keeping money flowing, and big consumers lobbying to keep it open — analysis. Bans cut most Russian metal, but an exemption lets slabs reach Belgium and Italy until 2028.

Humanitarian and social impact

Kyiv gets no warning of the first of two Russian ballistic waves, hours after Zelenskyy said US alerts were back. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied any pause in intelligence-sharing and pointed to a software problem in Ukraine’s early-warning system a few nights earlier.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine opens its first war-crime case against a ship captain for carrying off 54,000 tons of its stolen grain. Ukraine opens a war-crime case over the Matros Pozynich captain.

Most Ukrainians reject giving Russia all of Donbas. Support for resistance on rose to 62% after new US pressure, poll finds. The share ready to endure the war climbed as Washington eased Russian sanctions and cut Ukraine’s intelligence, and as Russia hammered its cities.

Read our earlier daily review here.