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Commission presents landmark India trade deal to Council for signature

14 September 2026 at 08:00

On 11 September, the European Commission has put forward its proposals to the Council for the signature and conclusion of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and India, seeking authorization for its signature and conclusion. If authorized by the Council, this will be the largest trade agreement ever concluded by both the EU and India.

Once adopted and entered into force, the agreement will improve market access, reduce tariffs, tackle unnecessary barriers to trade, as well as provide predictable rules for trade and investment between the EU and India. The EU and India already trade over €180 billion worth of goods and services per year, supporting close to 800,000 EU jobs. This deal will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96% of EU goods exports to India. Overall, the tariff reductions will save around €4 billion per year in duties on European products. It will make it easier for European companies to access the Indian market and compete on a more level playing field, while it will ensure consumers can benefit from increased choices and more competitive prices.

The proposal put forward today represents a key step towards ensuring that consumers and businesses can start reaping the benefits of this deal as soon as possible. This is in line with the fast-track procedure laid out by Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič earlier this year. The procedure aims at speeding up the implementation of FTA's, which is crucial at a time of geopolitical uncertainty and growing pressure on the global trading system.

The EU-India FTA reflects the EU's commitment to strengthen economic ties with key partners in the Indo-Pacific region. With its proposals, the Commission is seeking Council's approval to sign the agreements which will then require European Parliament's consent, before conclusion and entry into force. The Indian authorities are in parallel going through their own internal ratification procedures.

For more information

Proposal for a Council Decision on the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Republic of India

Proposal for a Council Decision on the conclusion of the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Republic of India

Questions and answers on the EU-India Free Trade Agreement

Fighting the illicit tobacco trade: EU not up to the task

9 September 2026 at 07:44


From illicit production to smuggling, the illicit tobacco trade continues to pose a serious problem for the EU, as it negatively impacts its finances, public health and security, according to a new report by the European Court of Auditors (ECA). Although the European Commission and EU countries have made efforts to combat this global criminal phenomenon, their action is not robust enough. Illicit production across the EU is increasing, smuggling methods are getting more sophisticated, and new tobacco products are on the rise. Against this backdrop, the auditors criticise poor cross-country cooperation, which suffers from persistent gaps and lacks a concerted EU-wide approach.

The illicit tobacco trade has changed significantly in recent years. Organised crime groups have strategically relocated production from Ukraine to the EU in order to shorten supply chains and access consumers more directly. Although smuggling remains a problem, illicit manufacturing sites have been detected in almost all EU countries, and illicit production has grown across the EU. For instance, in a large-scale illicit cigarette production factory in Belgium, each machine was capable of producing around a million cigarettes per hour. In the largest illicit cigarette factory dismantled in Spain, three million packets of counterfeit cigarettes were seized, i.e. 56 times the height of Mount Everest if the cigarettes were stacked horizontally.

“The EU cannot afford to let its fight against the scourge of illicit tobacco go up in smoke,” said Petri Sarvamaa, the ECA Member leading the audit. “If we are serious about safeguarding citizens’ health, wallets and security, the Commission and member states must up their game to fight criminal activity head-on.”

The illicit tobacco trade deprives EU and member state budgets of €13 billion a year, according to the Commission’s estimate. However, this figure should be treated with caution, as it is based on external studies. The fact remains that the Commission lacks a reliable and independent EU-wide estimate of the illicit tobacco market, its structure and its economic impact, e.g. in terms of lost tax revenues. Such data, however, are crucial for determining the magnitude of the problem and designing an effective response. As it stands, the Commission’s reporting is largely based on seizures, and so does not provide a full picture of the situation.

Over the past decade, the EU and its member states have taken measures to combat the illicit tobacco trade. However, EU law is not harmonised, and member states’ efforts are uneven. For example, key production inputs such as raw tobacco and production machinery, and new types of products such as heated tobacco products and liquids for e-cigarettes, are not treated in the same way across the EU. At the same time, the EU regulatory framework gives member states a free hand in choosing counter-measures, thus leading to enforcement gaps that organised crime groups can exploit. In particular, as national control systems and enforcement approaches differ, such as in the definition of offences and the severity of penalties, this can encourage criminal activities to relocate to laxer jurisdictions. Furthermore, EU countries are inconsistent in the way they exchange information.

In the EU, responsibility for combating the illicit tobacco trade is shared between several stakeholders. However, no single entity has a clear coordinating role, meaning that initiatives are fragmented. The auditors thus call on the Commission to assume a more active role in combating the illicit trade in tobacco products.

Background information

Although overall tobacco consumption has continued to fall, the quantity of illicit tobacco products in the EU has risen in recent years. In 2023, the Commission estimated that the quantity of illicit tobacco products was 8.8 % of total cigarette consumption. Excluding cigarettes, the illicit tobacco market amounts to nearly 21 000 tonnes in the EU. According to estimates, these new products make up 13 % of the market value of tobacco products sold in the EU, and attract younger consumers.

Illicit tobacco products are very attractive for organised crime groups due to their high profitability and comparatively low risk (penalties have traditionally been light and detection rates low). Such illegal activity not only provides a significant source of income for criminals but, by offering cheaper tobacco products, also undermines efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. Ultimately, it leads to losses in terms of customs duties, value-added tax and national excise duties.

The audit assesses the effectiveness of the action taken by the Commission and the member states. The auditors carried out field visits in Belgium, Spain, Poland and Romania, and include examples of illicit manufacturing sites in their report. ECA special report 23/2026 “Combating the illicit trade in tobacco in the EU: Fragmented efforts and persistent gaps” is available in 24 EU languages on the ECA website.

Top trade in goods partners in Q2 2026: US and China

28 August 2026 at 08:00

In the second quarter of 2026, the EU imported €701.8 billion in goods from non-EU countries and exported €680.0 billion. Compared with the previous quarter, both imports and exports increased, by 9.9% and 5.4%, respectively. Compared with the second quarter of 2025, imports increased by 11.7% and exports by 4.5%.

China was the EU’s largest supplier, accounting for €153.6 billion (21.9% of all imports). The United States came second (€98.7 billion; 14.1%), followed by the United Kingdom (€43.4 billion; 6.2%), Switzerland (€36.9 billion; 5.3%) and Türkiye (€25.5 billion; 3.6%). 

The EU increased imports from the United States (+11.5%), the United Kingdom (+8.8%), China (+7.9%) and Switzerland (+2.1%) compared with the second quarter of 2025, while imports from Türkiye declined slightly (-0.6%).

Click to enlarge

Main EU partners for trade in goods, Q2 2025 and Q2 2026  (€ billion, seasonally adjusted data). Chart. See link to the full dataset below.

Source dataset: ext_st_eu27_2020sitc

The EU exported €127.7 billion of goods to the United States, making it the EU’s main export destination (18.8% of all exports). The United Kingdom came second with €92.7 billion (13.6%), followed by Switzerland (€60.5 billion; 8.9%), China (€50.3 billion; 7.4%) and Türkiye (€27.3 billion; 4.0%).

Exports to Switzerland rose sharply (+16.1%) compared with the same quarter of 2025. Exports to the United Kingdom (+5.6%) and China (+2.8%) also increased, while those to the United States (-5.6%) and Türkiye (-4.9%) decreased.

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Archaeologists Demonstrate That Brands Already Existed 3,200 Years Ago in Bronze Age Oases

The question of whether brands are an invention exclusive to modern capitalist societies has received a resounding answer from an international team of researchers: they already existed at least 3,200 years ago. A study led by Marta Luciani of the University of Vienna and published in the journal PLOS One has documented how painted pottery […]

Vietnam, EU elevate ties citing ‘threat’ to ‘rules-based order’

30 January 2026 at 12:02

Hanoi (dpa) – Vietnam and the European Union on Thursday upgraded ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Vietnam’s highest diplomatic tier, amid a tumultuous period for global trade.

In a joint statement, Vietnam and EU stressed “the importance of a partnership based on common interests and shared values of peace, security, and prosperity in a rules-based international order, based on international law.”

Though US tariffs were not explicitly mentioned, at a press briefing held after meeting Vietnamese President Luong Cuong, European Council President António Costa said: “At a moment when the international rules-based order is under threat from multiple sides, we need to stand side-by-side as reliable and predictable partners.”

“Vietnam considers the EU one of its most important partners in the world and wishes to continue promoting and deepening its relationship with the EU,” Cuong said.

Cuong labelled the move a “historic milestone,” coming 35 years after Vietnam and the EU established diplomatic relations. The EU-Vietnam free trade agreement, signed in 2020, has helped drive a 40 percent increase in bilateral trade.

Vietnam is one of the EU’s largest trading partners in South-East Asia, while the EU is Vietnam’s fourth-largest trading partner. In the first 10 months of 2025, two-way trade reached nearly 61 billion Dollar (51 billion Euro), up 8.4 percent year on year.

Vietnam and the EU on Thursday also underscored the need to strengthen cooperation on peace, defence and security, and voiced support for multilateralism and respect for international law, including the UN Charter. (29 January)

Germany’s Greens back EU-India trade deal after Mercosur debacle

27 January 2026 at 11:58

Berlin (dpa) – Germany’s Greens are backing the European Union’s landmark trade deal with India, days after the party’s lawmakers in the European Parliament played a key role in challenging the bloc’s agreement with the South American Mercosur countries.

Andreas Audretsch, the party’s deputy group leader in the German parliament, said the deal with India, which was announced earlier on Tuesday, was good for businesses and workers in Germany.

In view of the “destructive rage” of US President Donald Trump, Europe must build new alliances for trade and cooperation, Audretsch argued.

The deal was finalised during an EU-India summit in New Delhi, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaiming the agreement on Tuesday.

“The EU and India make history today, deepening the partnership between the world’s biggest democracies,” von der Leyen said.

The latest agreement will not be as comprehensive as the one recently concluded between the EU and Mercosur countries Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Last week, several Green lawmakers in Brussels voted in favour of referring the bloc’s deal with Mercosur to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), which could result in a substantial delay to ratification. Their votes were decisive in passing the motion, prompting severe criticism for the party in Germany, whose export-led economy stands to benefit from the boost to trade.

In a paper, the Green leadership has said that Germany needs “new economic partnerships” to diversify foreign trade. “That is why it is important to provisionally apply the agreement with the Mercosur countries and then ratify it,” the paper continued. (January 27)

German chancellor slams EU Parliament over legal review of Mercosur trade deal

22 January 2026 at 15:07

Davos, Switzerland (dpa) – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has blasted the European Parliament for referring the contested EU free trade deal with four countries from the South American Mercosur bloc to court.

“I deeply regret that the European Parliament has put another obstacle in our way,” Merz told political and business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. “But rest assured, we will not be stopped. The Mercosur deal is fair and balanced. There is no alternative to it if we want to have higher growth in Europe.”

Merz said he expects the trade deal to be implemented “provisionally” despite the Parliament’s challenge.

The European Parliament voted on Wednesday to have the Mercosur trade deal, which was signed last week following decades of painstaking negotiations, reviewed by the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Waiting for the court’s opinion could significantly delay the ratification process for the agreement with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. It is unclear how long it will take for the judges at the ECJ in Luxembourg to submit their assessment, but previous assessments took between 16 and 26 months.

The agreement, which aims to remove trade barriers and customs duties and boost the exchange of goods and services, would create one of the largest free trade zones in the world. (22 January)

EU mulls ‘trade bazooka’ amid standoff over US Greenland tariffs

21 January 2026 at 09:39

European Union countries are rushing to find a joint response to threats by US President Donald Trump to impose an additional 10-percent tariff on goods from several European allies from February 1.

EU leaders are set to meet in Brussels on Thursday after Trump threatened that eight European countries would face higher tariffs until the United States secures what he described as the “complete and total purchase” of Greenland.

The US repeatedly said it wants the mineral-rich autonomous Danish territory of Greenland for “national security”, despite it already having a base on the island and long established security agreements with fellow NATO ally Denmark, which has controlled the Arctic island for about 300 years.

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom recently sent a small number of soldiers on a reconnaissance mission to Greenland as a sign of solidarity with Denmark, which is pushing back against Trump’s takeover ambitions.

“We won’t be blackmailed, and we stand together in solidarity in Europe,” said German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, arriving in Brussels on Monday for two days of previously planned talks  with his EU counterparts. “We don’t want an escalation. We are not looking for an escalation, but we are ready if it comes,” Klingbeil said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – considered one of Trump’s few allies in the EU – has called the new tariff threat a “mistake”.

In a different threat scenario, Trump also ramped up his rhetoric against France on Tuesday, warning he would impose 200 percent tariffs on French wine and champagne over its intentions to decline his invitation to join his “Board of Peace” set up to oversee the rebuilding of Gaza.

French President Emmanuel Macron said at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos (Switzerland) on Tuesday: “What doesn’t make sense is to have tariffs between allies. We have to fix the war in Ukraine, we have to help the Ukrainians resist, and find a sustainable peace.” 

Macron called the possibility of potentially activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument against the US “crazy” and added: “I do regret that. But this is a consequence of just unpredictability and useless aggressivity.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned Trump not to plunge transatlantic relations into a dangerous downward spiral over Greenland. “This is why the proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies,” she said in Davos.

Arctic security can only be achieved together.

This is why the proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies.

The EU and US have agreed to a trade deal last July.

A deal is a deal.

And when friends shake hands, it must mean something. pic.twitter.com/5wpMic148s

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) January 20, 2026

Washington mayhem tests transatlantic alliance and post-WWII order

The leader of global rights group Amnesty International, Agnes Callamard, urged European countries Monday to stop “appeasing” Trump and to resist him and other “bullies” who she said were intent on destroying the rules-based order in place since World War II.

Since Trump’s return to the White House a year ago, he has taken “a range of decisions that have led to the demise of many rules around the world”, while Russia was destroying the system “through its aggression in Ukraine”, the human rights organisation’s secretary general told AFP in an interview in Davos.

The post-WWII order “is also being destroyed by Israel that has completely ignored international law in its genocide of Palestinians in Gaza”, she added.

Furthermore, European powers have been treading a thin line over Ukraine in recent months, relying on Washington to try to help settle the conflict but resisting terms too favourable to Moscow.

Trump meanwhile has put the transatlantic alliance to the test with threats to take over Greenland “one way or the other”, as European countries close ranks against Washington’s designs on the vast Danish autonomous territory.

In a message to Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Trump said “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, citing his failure to win last year’s Nobel Peace Prize despite openly coveting it. He said although peace would still be “predominant”, he could “now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America”.

Store said in a statement: “I have clearly explained, including to President Trump, what is well known – the prize is awarded by an independent Nobel Committee”, not the Norwegian government.

Dänische Soldaten gehen im Hafen von Nuuk an Land.
Danish soldiers disembark at the port of Nuuk. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix Photo/AP/dpa

NATO ramps up Greenland presence amid search for unity

Amid the global tensions, Denmark is proposing that NATO start surveillance operations in Greenland, with the support of the Arctic island, Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said Monday after meeting NATO’s chief Mark Rutte. The precise details of the proposal and the response from Rutte remain unknown.

While a number of NATO allies have sent troops to Greenland or have announced plans to do so despite the risk of additional US tariffs being imposed on them, others remain reluctant and divided over the move.

Belgium is sending a liaison officer to Greenland. Despite this decision, the country was not included on Trump’s list of sanctioned countries on Saturday.  “But there is no guarantee that this will not be the case in the future and we must show solidarity with our colleagues”, Foreign minister Maxime Prévot said. He called the American measures “incomprehensible and unnecessarily hostile”. 

Likewise, Slovenia on Saturday announced it would deploy two Armed Forces officers to Greenland to take part in the planning and implementation of the Danish-led international military exercise Arctic Endurance. 

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk – whose country is a staunch NATO ally with the highest defence expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in the EU – already said last week the country was “not planning to send Polish soldiers to Greenland”.

Contrary to false claims on social media that Germany had sent warships to Greenland, the country did send 15 soldiers to the island for a reconnaissance mission. The troops however left Greenland on Sunday after the mission was completed on schedule, according to the Ministry of Defence.

Spain has not announced plans to participate in the mission in Greenland. Defence Minister Margarita Robles however said recently that the country could join the group in the future.

At the same time, some NATO allies are still navigating how the Greenland dispute plays out in their domestic political debates.

Asked on Monday whether the government of the Czech Republic supports Greenland, Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said he could not give a clear answer. He added that the United States is the leader of NATO and that conflicts are counterproductive. “We definitely prefer that an agreement be reached within the alliance. It would be very unfortunate if there were to be any conflicts,” Babiš said.

In Bulgaria, political reactions are mixed. The outgoing government has not issued a position on the recent developments around Greenland, but reactions from parliament have begun to emerge.

On the one hand, the leader of Continue the Change – a party affiliated at European level with Renew Europe – Assen Vassilev, said that every country should have the right to determine its own future, rather than having its choices dictated by external powers. 

On the other hand, Revival (Vazrazhdane) – whose MEPs sit with the Europe of Sovereign Nations Group in the European Parliament – backs the US claims over Greenland. Party leader Kostadin Kostadinov reiterated the party’s call for Bulgaria to withdraw from NATO and argued that tensions between Washington and Copenhagen expose deeper structural problems within both NATO and the European Union.

Slovakia’s Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár said “Slovakia considers Greenland to be part of Denmark”. He rejected tariff battles between states: “We prefer diplomacy and peace, not tension or fighting,” he said.

EU “trade bazooka” on standby

EU leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss a coordinated response to the prospect of US tariffs – with its most powerful trade tool on the table.

The Anti-Coercion Instrument, a mechanism adopted in 2023, that can be used in cases of economic coercion when a non-EU country attempts to pressure the bloc or one of its 27 members into making a decision through trade restrictions.

Such practices “unduly interfere with the legitimate sovereign choices of the European Union and its member states”, the European Commission says on its website.

France had signalled its intention to request the activation of the instrument after Trump announced on Saturday that he would impose additional tariffs on the eight NATO allies. 

To apply the instrument, the European Commission first has to examine whether economic coercion is present in the case. EU countries must then back the Commission’s conclusion, before the EU’s executive arm ideally enters into talks with the country. If these are unsuccessful, the EU can impose countermeasures.

Retaliatory measures under the ACI however are only a last resort and must be proportionate. Using it against the United States would be ”the very first time” the EU has ever applied the tool, Macron recalled in Davos on Tuesday.

Should the ACI be applied over Trump’s latest trade threats, retaliatory tariffs on imports of US goods are likely. The EU-US tariff agreement concluded in July could also be put on hold.

Under discussion is also the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on a list of goods with a total trade volume of 93 billion Euro (108 billion Dollar), including industrial and agricultural goods such as motorcycles, beef, whiskey and citrus fruits.

This article is an ENR Key Story. The content is based on information published by ENR participating agencies.

On the road to nowhere? European carmakers face EV push from China

16 January 2026 at 08:55

Growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) from China is causing headaches for European carmakers – and for Brussels, with national governments clamouring for protection for their national champions. 

The European Commission, which is in charge of trade policies for the bloc, has to square the circle between avoiding a trade war and injecting some life into the idling economy. 

In one recent step the EU is attempting to introduce minimum prices for Chinese made EVs to offset subsidies instead of slapping on more tariffs. 

The EU in 2024 had introduced tariffs of up to 35.3 percent on EVs imported from China after an anti-subsidy probe concluded that the country’s support undercut European automakers. Manufacturers in China benefit from unfair subsidies that give them a significant advantage in the European market. Since then, the two sides have been engaged in talks to find other solutions. 

How cheap is too cheap?

Under new guidelines published by the Commission last week, companies can commit to setting minimum prices for vehicles exported to the European Union in order to avoid the price surcharges. In addition, in the case of a corresponding offer, commitments to invest in the EU or to limit exports would be positively taken into account.

Such offers would be assessed objectively and fairly by the Commission, according to the new guidelines. A prerequisite for acceptance is that the measures eliminate the damaging effects of subsidies and have an effect equivalent to the tariffs.

The published document was “intended to provide guidance to Chinese exporters who may be considering submitting price undertaking offers for exports of battery electric vehicles to the EU, which are currently subject to countervailing duties,” Commission spokesman Olof Gill said. 

He said that at present, the Commission has received one price undertaking offer, without specifying which company or for which model. He added that the Commission is ready to consider other proposals, provided that they “adequately address the unfair competitive advantage” and demonstrate that they are “feasible in practice”.

Leading German automotive expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, head of the private institute Center Automotive Research (CAR), was sceptical of the effects of the minimum prices could have on competition. 

According to EU calculations, manufacturers in China benefit from unfair subsidies that give them a price advantage of around 20 percent on the European market. For this reason, tariffs ranging from 7.8 to 35.3 percent were imposed from 2024, depending on the manufacturer. German and US companies that manufacture in China are also affected. In retaliation, China imposed special tariffs on EU goods such as spirits, pork, and dairy products.

According to CAR, Chinese manufacturers sell their models in the EU at an average markup of 118 percent on top of the domestic price. “Given the current price level in Europe, there should still be significant scope for Chinese manufacturers to reduce prices,” said Dudenhöffer. 

Pressure from all sides

According to the latest report by the EU research agency Eurofound, the automotive industry in the EU directly employs around 6 million workers and another 6 million in related sectors. 

Since 2019, the pace of job losses in the sector has clearly accelerated. In 2024 alone and at the beginning of 2025, layoffs announced by European companies affected around 100,000 jobs.

The largest employment losses have been recorded in countries with a strong presence of Europe’s biggest car manufacturers. In France, a structural decline is feared, while since 2019 job cuts have also affected Germany, Italy, and, to a lesser extent, Spain. Central and Eastern European countries – Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia – are facing the relocation of production outside the EU to countries with lower labor costs.

This is happening because sales of cars originating from China, including electric vehicles (EVs), are increasing in the EU. In practice, some of these cars on EU markets are not only models of Chinese brands but also vehicles produced in China for Western brands.

ARCHIVE – November 20, 2025, Saxony, Leipzig: A Volkswagen electric vehicle is charging at a charging station using a yellow cable. Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa

German auto angst

Germany, for many years a global carmaking powerhouse, is facing a dilemma. Demand for EVs is rising, but it is not just the battery powered Volkswagens or BMWs customers are flocking to – and the long-term outlook is dire. 

Electric vehicle sales rebounded strongly in Germany in 2025, according to official data from early January this year, with Chinese manufacturers making inroads from a low base in the EU’s largest economy despite tariffs.

EV sales rose 43.2 percent last year to 545,142 in total, the KBA federal transport authority said, representing 19.1 percent of all new cars sold.

Chinese EV giant BYD – which last year overtook Elon Musk’s Tesla to become the worlds largest electric carmaker – saw its German sales rise over 700 percent to more than 23,000 cars, giving it 0.8 percent of the overall auto market.

“International vehicle manufacturers with affordable battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have contributed disproportionately to growth in these segments,” said Imelda Labbé, head of the VDIK foreign carmakers’ lobby in Germany.

The rise in EV sales last year comes after a fall of almost 30 percent in 2024 following the withdrawal of government subsidies, and Germany’s electric car market is still smaller than optimists had hoped for. After the decline in the market in 2024, the government said in December it would introduce subsidies again.

Some motorists will be able to benefit from 5,000 Euro for the purchase of new EVs or hybrids so long as their components are largely made in Germany. But industry figures say that better charging infrastructure and cheaper power would be needed to really boost EVs and warned that the planned subsidy would have limited impact.

On the other hand, German carmakers have been reporting strong declines in vehicle sales in China. Volkswagen said in January its sales dropped by 8 percent in 2025 year-on-year, as it was facing intense competition on the Chinese market from local producers. Mercedes-Benz reported a 19 percent decline in sales for the year, while BMW sold 12,5 percent fewer cars in China. 

German manufacturers like Mercedes or VW sell about 30 percent of their cars on the Chinese market. 

The tug-of-war affects not just major players, but the automotive sector across the continent. 

Bulgaria for example is not a major car producer, but it is increasingly important as a supplier of automotive components to European manufacturers. The sector has grown into one of the country’s strongest industrial branches, generating close to 11 billion Euro in annual turnover, according to business media and industry analyses. 

This means that it is indirectly exposed to the EU-China trade dispute over electric vehicles: weaker competitiveness of European carmakers could reduce orders for Bulgarian suppliers, while a recovery in EV sales in core markets such as Germany would have the opposite effect. 

At the same time, Chinese manufacturers are not only exporting cars to Europe but are also expanding production and partnerships within the EU, with Bulgaria being increasingly part of China’s automotive strategy in Southeast Europe according to analysts. 

For Bulgaria, this creates a mixed impact: EU trade measures may protect European carmakers, but Chinese localization in Europe could also open new opportunities for Bulgarian suppliers.

Dudenhöffer expects the sector to shrink in the next years in Germany and Europe, as manufacturers shift their production to the US or Asia, he said in his market forecast for 2026.

“Growth is taking place in Asia, and Asian car manufacturers (Japan, Korea, China) are increasingly dominating the car business.”

Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, German Automotive Expert

Fading from Green to Petrol 

And then there are of course the EU’s green policies: The EU in December rolled back a 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars seen as a milestone in the fight against climate change, as the bloc pivots to bolstering its crisis-hit auto sector. 

Under proposals slammed by green groups as an act of “self-sabotage”, carmakers will have to cut exhaust emissions from new vehicles by 90 percent from 2021 levels – down from an envisaged 100 percent.

This means that in practice automakers will still be able to sell a limited number of polluting vehicles – from plug-in hybrids to diesel cars –  beyond 2035, provided the resulting emissions are “compensated” in various ways.

The EU’s Industry Commissioner, Stéphane Séjourné, insisted the bloc’s green ambitions stood intact as he put forward a plan billed as a “lifeline” for Europe’s auto industry.

The combustion-engine ban was hailed as a major win in the climate fight and a key tool to drive investments in electrification when adopted in 2023.

The compromise plan was slammed by both environmentalists and industry groups.

While the EU had recognised that remaining open to different technologies was important, its proposal was “fraught with so many obstacles it threatens to remain ineffective in practice”, the president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), Hildegard Müller, said. “In times of increasing international competition, in times when European economic power is crucial, this overall package from Brussels is disastrous.” 

The future of German car manufacturers – and by extension automakers in other EU member states – is closely linked to the Chinese market. 

According to Dudenhöffer, they must develop and build electric cars “in China for China”. In this context, he criticised the softening of the combustion engine phase-out. He said it was not possible to disconnect from developments, but that it is necessary to face competition in the tough Chinese market. “If you’re not in China, you’re not in the car business.”

This article is an ENR Key Story. The content is based on information published by ENR participating agencies.

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