On the night of March 20, 2024, unusually humid and mild in London, three people in their twenties pulled up at an industrial estate in the east of the city in a cherry-red Kia Picanto. They went inside, set fire to a warehouse, and filmed the blaze on a cellphone. The video of the flames consuming the premises ended up in the hands of another 20-year-old, Dylan Earl, who was reached via the Telegram messaging app by the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner, linked to the Kremlin, which had in turn recruited others to do the dirty work. One of the burned units contained humanitarian aid and Starlink satellite equipment destined for Ukraine. According to the British investigation, the three young men who lit the fuse did not know they were actually working for Russia.

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A powerful explosion shook Colonita, a small village in the municipality of Chișinău, at 4.20 a.m. on September 18. Residents saw a blinding flash and heard a terrifying blast that made houses tremble. Six hours later, emergency teams found the remains of a Russian drone — including its engine — scattered across agricultural land. The device had fallen about four miles from the center of the Moldovan capital, which is home to more than 700,000 people. It had not been detected by surveillance systems, which the Defense Ministry attributed to the speed and low altitude at which it was flying.

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“Thanks to our beloved soldiers. We await you in our unbreakable city,” reads a handwritten note beside cans and other foodstuffs received to stave off hunger in Oleshky, a city occupied by Russia. “Thank you,” echoes another note next to a shipment of coffee, herbal teas, and chocolate bars. Photos of these messages and others showing various tokens of gratitude have reached the phone of Roman Chuhalov, 44, one of the Ukrainian servicemen who, by sending aid with drones, are trying to break the blockade in this town in the southern Kherson region, where about 2,000 people are holding out.

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At least 280,000 people are missing due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to the vast list maintained by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). It includes Ukrainians and Russians, without distinction, and the true figure is likely higher because the list contains only requests registered with the organization. The vast majority are soldiers. Although many have probably died, some parents and wives still set a meal at an empty chair and leave their rooms unchanged in case the person suddenly returns home. They carry a pain psychologists call ambiguous loss.

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Kaliningrad, the militarized Russian exclave wedged between NATO and EU members Poland and Lithuania and a constant flashpoint between the Kremlin and the Atlantic Alliance, has become the center of Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threat against Europeans. Last week Moscow accused NATO of seeking to block Kaliningrad and threatened to use nuclear weapons if the military organization moves forward with that alleged plan. For the Kremlin, the exclave, which gives it a strategic outlet to the Baltic Sea (it is the only port it can use year-round) and is a key node in its hybrid war against Europe, is an advanced bastion. For NATO, it is a piece on the board that shapes any crisis in the Baltic because it could hinder allied military movements.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine is approaching its fifth year. Since February 24, 2022, Europe and the United States have rolled out a battery of sanctions intended to strangle the Russian economy to the point where regime change would be the only viable outcome for the Kremlin. The wave of restrictions, however, has several loopholes — some deliberately left by the West to preserve certain exchanges, such as a limited purchase of hydrocarbons.

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Russia is stepping up its hybrid war against Europe. From sabotage, drone incursions, and arson to plots (mostly foiled) to assassinate pro‑Ukraine activists and Russian dissidents on European soil, the Kremlin is testing the allied response, and incidents against NATO’s European partners are becoming more serious, such as the explosive‑laden drones found this summer at Leipzig Airport in Germany. That gray line between a hybrid attack and a conventional one is blurring, and several European intelligence sources warn of the risk that one of those incidents could escalate — either by a deliberate Kremlin decision or a miscalculation.

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One way Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confronts Russian attacks and seeks to show resolve is by appearing in the most dangerous places. He has done so since his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022. At that time, Kyiv was the Kremlin’s primary target, but the attempt was beaten back. In recent weeks, Moscow has increased its aerial attacks and bombs the city day and night, hitting numerous civilian targets. “They want Ukrainians — especially those in the capital — to leave. In fact, that’s what they were aiming for when the full-scale invasion began,” Zelenskiy said during a conversation with EL PAÍS while visiting a school that had been attacked on Thursday morning in Kyiv.

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Garry Kasparov, 63, is the only one still alive of three very prominent opponents of Vladimir Putin who were threatened in 2012; the other two were Boris Nemtsov, murdered near the Kremlin in 2015, and Alexei Navalny, who survived a poisoning attack in 2020 and who died suddenly in a Siberian prison in 2024. The U.S. Department of Justice has now revealed a plan by agents linked to Russian intelligence to kill the chess player and activist—who is highly critical of Putin on a daily basis—last summer in New York, where he lives. The former world champion, who holds a Croatian passport, ties his fate to that of Ukraine.

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Evan Gershkovich does not conceal the fact that he would rather be on the other side of the table. “Your job as an interviewer is much more fun than mine,” admits the journalist who has had to get used to being the center of the story. His ordeal began on March 29, 2023. The then–Moscow correspondent for The Wall Street Journal was detained that day on charges of espionage. He spent 16 months in prison before being freed in the largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War. The exchange, in which the governments of the United States and Germany were heavily involved, had the makings of a spy movie.

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Vladimir Putin is in trouble. The war in Ukraine is not going well for him; casualties are mounting at an alarming rate; discontent in Russian society is growing amid serious economic hardships; and the Kremlin’s inner circle is becoming increasingly perplexed by their leader’s ineffectiveness. His response, for now, is the same as always: escalation. Against Ukraine, with more missiles; against his own citizens, with more repression; and against the EU, with attacks, threats, and provocations of various kinds — sabotage, cyberattacks, incursions — that are becoming increasingly bold and dangerous.

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Donald Trump returned to power in Washington with two major foreign policy promises: to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” and to keep his country out of more “forever wars.” Almost two years after his decisive electoral victory, the Russian invasion continues with no sign of a quick end, and the United States has plunged itself into yet another hornet’s nest in the Middle East. Two conflicts of unpredictable outcome have pushed fossil fuel costs to historic highs worldwide and are increasing doubts about whether — with price signals distorted — supply chains will withstand the pressure.

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The alarms raised by the relationship between a Spanish NATO commander and a woman of Russian origin he met on Tinder, the dating app, are the latest chapter in a new espionage battleground: web applications. Sharing content on social media, posting your morning run, or looking for love online has become a latent risk for militaries around the world.

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The Kremlin has turned the parliament produced by last Sunday’s Russian legislative elections into an echo chamber for the war. Authorities barred the only party that had called for a truce, Yabloko, as well as candidates who were critical of the government — from independent Boris Nadezhdin to members of parties nominally loyal to the Kremlin such as the Communist Party and A Just Russia. In addition, the military are gradually displacing party bureaucrats in Russian politics.

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