Donald Knierim planned his retirement around student-loan forgiveness.

He spent most of his career designing financial data systems for major companies. At the age of 60, he took a pay cut and moved to the public sector, working for Metra, Chicago's commuter railway. His primary draw to the job was lower stress, and an added bonus was that it qualified for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, which erases student debt for government and nonprofit workers after 10 years.

Knierim had a $62,000 balance remaining on the student loans he took out to send his kids to college. If all went according to plan, a decade at Metra would wipe that clean.

In November 2025, the now-71-year-old logged on to his Federal Student Aid dashboard. It read "Congratulations! You've satisfied your obligation, and no additional payments are required for this loan." That tracked — Knierim said he had never missed a payment, always verifying that his payments were counting toward his forgiveness progress. So he put in his notice and retired.

Months later, he received an update: 15 payments that had previously counted toward forgiveness were changed to "non-qualifying." The notice said his payments were below the amount required under his income-driven repayment plan, but did not specify the proper amount. That means he has at least another year and a half of payments — about $470 monthly — to achieve PSLF.

"If I have to restore that payment, it's going to put my wife and me in a bad situation," Knierim said. "We're too tight in retirement to be shelling out money for stuff that we can't afford."

Since 2023, Business Insider has heard from student-loan borrowers whose loan forgiveness was rescinded. Over the past few months, issues with PSLF have become more widespread, with borrowers reporting challenges in receiving accurate payment counts. Some had their payments toward forgiveness removed after the Department of Education said it was correcting accounts following Biden-era coding errors.

An Education Department spokesperson said that the agency "remains committed to ensuring that every qualifying payment is properly credited to a borrower's account."

Knierim said that even if he could land a new public service job, he wouldn't be able to take it. Caring for his wife, who is facing serious health issues, is a full-time job. He has reached out to his servicer and filed multiple complaints with Federal Student Aid, requesting his payments to be returned to a qualifying status. Meanwhile, he has not made the new payments his servicer said were due, which has lowered his credit score by more than 200 points. He recently received a notice that his account is delinquent and at risk of default, putting him at risk of seizure of federal benefits, like the Social Security he relies on to stay afloat.

Now, he's asking for the initial communication he received from his student-loan servicer to be honored.

"I thought I was done, they gave me that notification that I was done, and then they clawed it back," Knierim said. "I didn't know where that came from, or what to do."

An error-riddled student-loan forgiveness program

There are a few reasons a borrower might get their PSLF notices rescinded. An internal Education Department memo from 2023, reviewed by Business Insider, said that servicer MOHELA erroneously discharged loans for 64 student-loan borrowers "due to inadequate staff training." The memo recommended that MOHELA send notices to affected borrowers explaining what had happened.

In 2023, one borrower received a notice that his loans had been discharged under PSLF. Nine months later, he received a notice that the forgiveness was a mistake, and his payments were restarted. Between those two notices, the borrower said he had bought a home and paid for his son's preschool. The reversal required him to reconfigure his family's budget.

More recently, the Trump administration removed some PSLF borrowers' qualifying payments, with the Education Department citing Biden-era code errors that "resulted in inaccurate payment counts for some borrowers."

Bonnie Latrielle, an official in the Education Department's Federal Student Aid office under former President Joe Biden, said PSLF errors often arise during communication between the Education Department and servicers; servicers report qualifying PSLF payments to the department, and the department matches that information with a borrower's employment records to determine if the borrower is PSLF eligible.

"Those are all things that are outside of the borrower's control," Latrielle said.

Knierim said his servicer told him that some of the payments he made toward the Temporary Expanded PSLF program — a Biden-era program that allowed payments previously deemed ineligible to count toward forgiveness — did not qualify because they were below the required amount. He said he did not receive any further explanation as to why his payment amounts did not qualify, despite following his servicer's guidance on reaching forgiveness.

"I have a flawless payment history," Knierim said. "I have never missed a payment, and I paid what they told me to pay."

From relief to repayment

The Education Department has a "stated policy of holding borrowers harmless," Latrielle said, and borrowers have the right to submit complaints to the department's ombudsman if they have been harmed by their servicer.

However, amid staffing cuts in the department as part of the Trump administration's plan to dismantle the agency, it has stopped monitoring servicer performance and routine borrower complaints. Latrielle said a growing number of states have student-loan ombudsmen and a borrower bill of rights, offering resources and protections for borrowers within the state. Borrowers can also file lawsuits against their servicer if it violates state law, Latreille said.

Knierim, with the help of his daughter, an attorney, sent a letter to his servicer offering to pay the shortfall in his monthly payments. He said the letter was never acknowledged. He does not want to resume payments or switch repayment plans if doing so could further complicate his progress toward forgiveness. Still, his account is also inching toward default, and finding a resolution is becoming more urgent.

In September, eight state student-loan ombudsman offices, including those from Massachusetts, California, and Illinois, where Knierim lives, sent a letter to the Education Department and congressional leaders calling for stronger oversight of PSLF. They cited an example of a public service worker who had more than the required number of payments for forgiveness, but his progress tracker was reset to zero.

"Borrowers have received no clear explanations for individual reductions, making it difficult to verify the accuracy of the new totals, even though these retroactive adjustments can delay forgiveness by years," the letter said.

Knierim is still searching for clarity on where his student-loan forgiveness stands. He said he recently spoke with a Federal Student Aid representative who told him that a "reconsideration request" for the payment denial is in progress. That process could take up to two months, Knierim said he was told, and in the meantime, he's seeking to put his loans on forbearance until he gets a final answer.

"I kept getting different answers," Knierim said. "I can't go back and work. I have no recourse here."

Have a story to share about student loans? Contact this reporter at asheffey@businessinsider.com.

Debt trouble at CoreWeave, Oracle and SoftBank raises questions about whether there are broader problems with the data center build-out.

© Ivan Pierre Aguirre for The New York Times

Ahead of election, former central bank deputy governor Zvi Eckstein says outgoing government's decisions have impacted country's growth, with economy at risk unless changes are made

The UK economy will grow 1.3% in 2026, according to the IMF. But will it really, asks David Craig. With unemployment rising, it's just an illusion of out-of-control borrowing. But try getting an economist to admit it.

The post How Many Economists Does it Take to Wreck an Economy? appeared first on The Daily Sceptic.

The federal government just closed fiscal year 2026 with a deficit of nearly $2 trillion, according to figures the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released last Thursday. Only the two pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 were worse. Today, though, there is no recession and no emergency. These enormous budget deficits are the new normal.

The usual response to a deficit warning is that the government just needs more money. It doesn't. Thanks to the remarkable strength of the private sector, federal revenue rose by 3 percent, to more than $5.4 trillion, over the fiscal year. But spending rose by 6 percent, reaching $7.4 trillion.

Some will blame the Supreme Court for striking down most of President Donald Trump's tariffs and forcing the government to issue refunds. But even if Washington had kept the $130 billion in illegal levies, it would cover less than one-tenth of the gap. Tariffs were never a serious revenue source at our insanely high level of spending.

Look at where the money went. Spending on the three main entitlement programs—Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—grew by 7 percent. That's faster than total spending growth. Defense grew by 5 percent. Interest on the debt rose by 11 percent, exceeding $1.1 trillion. That last figure is the bill for every earlier year of borrowing—years when Washington was sending clear signals that it isn't serious about fiscal responsibility.

If you want to see where such irresponsibility can lead, look at France. The country that big spenders from Paul Krugman to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) have cited as proof that big government is viable and full of upsides is now on the brink of a serious crisis. France's debt equals 120 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), and interest payments are rising quickly. Slow growth and social unrest aren't helping.

The U.S., of course, has some advantages that France doesn't, largely because we're a country of innovators with a private sector unmatched at creating wealth. Nonetheless, debt that is swelling out of control should still worry us. First, the same anti-wealth and anti-growth forces that brought France to where it is now are gaining popularity here. Second, we too will see debt reach 120 percent of GDP in a few years, and our interest payments are already consuming an alarming share of resources.

A wise Congress would put us on safer footing if only because debt raises interest rates for everyone, from homebuyers to small businesses. This operates as a drag on growth, and hence on wages. In other words, controlling debt should be part of an affordability agenda in the same way as streamlining regulation.

When legislators decide to take affordability seriously, I recommend looking at a September Advancing American Freedom (AAF) report on this topic. Its section on fiscal restraint offers a useful menu of reforms, including targeting the programs that most drive the debt.

Start with Social Security. Under current law, benefits will be cut by roughly 20 percent when the program's trust fund runs dry in the early 2030s. Nobody believes Congress will actually let that happen, but we'd better hope its answer isn't to double down by borrowing the difference between payroll taxes and benefits.

Nor are tax increases an option. The payroll tax meant to fund entitlements is now 12.4 percent of wages. It began at 2 percent when Social Security was first rolled out. It is also the most burdensome tax for many Americans. Enough already. The fixes AAF fellow Rachel Greszler proposes are worth considering: Index the retirement age to life expectancy, use an accurate inflation measure for cost-of-living adjustments, and move gradually toward a flat universal benefit that protects lower-income retirees while ending Social Security's de facto welfare for the wealthiest.

Next is Medicare. More than 40 percent of its financing already comes from general revenue rather than from payroll taxes. The report recommends converting the program to premium support, giving beneficiaries a fixed contribution to spend on traditional Medicare or on competing private plans. It would also raise the eligibility age to 67, matching Social Security, and trim subsidies for well-off seniors. That's a start.

As for Medicaid, the problem is one of pricing. And yet competition based on price—the best cost-control tool—has never been seriously tried. Washington covers 90 percent of the cost of states' expanded Medicaid programs for adults. A state can buy a dollar of spending with just a dime of its own money. Changing the states' incentives would be key here. Implementing risk-adjusted per-capita caps, through which the federal government would give states a fixed amount per enrollee, would do just that. States would pay for their own inefficiencies or would be able to use every dollar they save by becoming more efficient.

The same logic supports returning more welfare programs to states, starting with the federal share of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. State governments have to balance their budgets in some form.

None of these reforms are painless. But the alternatives will prove far more painful. The U.S. will either continue paying a slow, unlegislated tax called inflation or face a fast, ugly fiscal crisis when bond buyers stop giving Washington the benefit of the doubt.

COPYRIGHT 2026 CREATORS.COM

The post The Federal Government Collected $5.4 Trillion. It Still Can't Pay Its Bills. appeared first on Reason Magazine.

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that the global economy faces serious risks from Big Tech firms taking on massive debt to fund the buildout of artificial intelligence data centers worldwide. The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report outlines a number of risks to economic growth in the coming years, including a reliance on AI […]

The post IMF warns of debt-fueled AI spending as bubble fears grow appeared first on Asia Times.

France faces growing pressure from eurozone governments and financial markets to secure its 2027 budget as borrowing costs climb towards levels not seen for more than two decades, raising questions about Paris’s ability to restore control over its public finances.

France is coming under increasingly direct pressure from its eurozone partners to resolve the political dispute surrounding its 2027 budget, with European finance ministers warning that continued uncertainty threatens confidence in the country’s public finances.

The warning follows a sharp increase in French government borrowing costs. Yields on ten-year sovereign bonds have risen by nearly 80 basis points since September, reaching levels last recorded in 2002. Investors are demanding higher returns to finance a government whose debt continues to increase while its capacity to impose spending restraint remains constrained by parliamentary divisions.

At the Eurogroup’s October discussions, finance ministers and European Central Bank officials pressed Paris to demonstrate that it can adopt a credible budget and comply with its commitments under the EU’s fiscal framework.

France’s difficulties have implications beyond its domestic politics. As the eurozone’s second-largest economy, France occupies a position fundamentally different from smaller countries that experienced sovereign debt crises during the previous decade.

Borrowing costs expose political weakness

The French government expects to borrow approximately €340 billion in 2027, making continued access to financial markets at sustainable rates an essential element of its fiscal strategy.

That financing requirement reflects both the need to cover the annual deficit and to refinance existing debt as government securities mature.

France’s public debt is already approaching 120 per cent of gross domestic product. As EU Today previously reported, official projections indicated that the debt ratio could reach 121.7 per cent in 2027, up from 115.7 per cent at the end of 2025.

The latest increase in yields adds another complication. Higher interest costs do not affect the entire stock of debt immediately because much of it was issued at earlier rates. They do, however, increase the cost of new borrowing and refinancing, progressively reducing the money available for other government commitments.

France also faces a difficult political timetable. With the presidential election approaching in 2027, parties are reluctant to accept measures involving spending reductions, higher taxation or changes to public services.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government has been attempting to reduce the deficit from an estimated 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2026 towards five per cent. Even that objective remains substantially above the EU’s three per cent reference value.

Brussels has limited room to compromise

Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has emphasised the importance of predictable fiscal policy and credible deficit reduction.

France is already subject to the EU’s excessive deficit procedure, under which member states must demonstrate progress towards agreed fiscal objectives.

The reformed European fiscal framework permits certain deviations from expenditure commitments in exceptional circumstances, but it does not provide an unrestricted exemption from debt sustainability requirements.

Paris therefore faces a double constraint. It must convince domestic political forces to support a budget while demonstrating to Brussels that its spending plans are sufficiently credible.

The danger is not necessarily an immediate financing crisis. France retains a large, diversified economy, deep financial markets and substantial tax-raising capacity.

The more immediate risk is that prolonged political deadlock produces progressively higher borrowing costs, making future fiscal adjustments more expensive.

Why the ECB cannot simply intervene

The European Central Bank has instruments designed to counter destabilising market conditions, but these are not intended to finance governments that are unwilling or unable to implement sustainable fiscal policies.

Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said on 7 October that France did not currently require ECB assistance. He argued that the solution lay in adopting a credible budget rather than expecting monetary intervention.

His position follows increasing speculation about whether the ECB could intervene if French bond yields continue rising.

Such intervention would raise difficult questions about the relationship between monetary policy and national fiscal responsibility. The ECB must consider financial stability across the entire eurozone, but it cannot remove the political obligations of individual governments.

France’s existing excessive deficit procedure also complicates its eligibility for certain forms of exceptional support.

The wider European consequences

France’s problems are developing at a particularly difficult moment for European public finances.

Governments are confronting higher defence commitments, expensive measures to protect households against energy inflation and demands for greater investment in industrial competitiveness.

Italy, another heavily indebted eurozone economy, is facing related pressures. The combination places additional importance on the credibility of the EU’s fiscal rules.

The political consequences within France are already visible. Marine Le Pen has presented a programme proposing €140 billion in spending reductions, while other parties have advanced sharply different approaches to taxation, debt and public expenditure.

Those competing programmes illustrate the difficulty of securing a parliamentary consensus capable of reassuring markets.

The approaching presidential election reduces the likelihood of a durable settlement before voters choose France’s next head of state.

Eurozone partners cannot resolve that impasse from Brussels or Frankfurt. They can insist on fiscal commitments and provide a framework for adjustment, but the political decisions remain with Paris.

France’s immediate challenge is to prevent its budget dispute from becoming a broader loss of confidence in the government’s capacity to manage its finances.

France’s borrowing costs have risen to levels last seen more than two decades ago as investors shift towards German, Dutch and other lower-risk European debt, placing Paris at the centre of renewed concern over eurozone public finances.

France is emerging as the principal source of concern in Europe’s government bond market as investors reassess the fiscal strength of eurozone states and increasingly move money towards Germany and other countries regarded as safer borrowers.

The yield on French ten-year government debt has reached its highest level since 2002 after rising by about 70 basis points during September. The difference between French and equivalent German borrowing costs approached 160 basis points last week, its widest since 2012, according to market reporting on the sell-off.

The shift represents a sharp reversal in how investors view French sovereign debt. France has traditionally traded close to Germany and benefited from its status as one of the eurozone’s largest and most liquid bond markets. It is now being treated increasingly as a country whose political and fiscal outlook warrants a substantial premium.

The immediate concern is the French budget.

Paris said in September that this year’s deficit would exceed the government’s five per cent target, while the country faces the additional challenge of issuing a record €340 billion of government bonds in 2027. The money will be needed both to finance current expenditure and refinance debt accumulated during the Covid period.

EU Today reported earlier this week that French debt concerns had already pushed the euro to a 17-month low against the dollar. Political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential election has added to market concern over whether any government will be able to deliver the spending reductions required to stabilise the public finances.

Bond markets, however, are responding to France’s present position rather than promises extending into the next presidential term.

The movement is also beginning to alter longstanding assumptions about which European sovereign borrowers are considered risky.

Italy remains vulnerable. Its ten-year bond spread over Germany rose to about 130 basis points last week, compared with roughly 80 basis points a month earlier. Italian public debt stands at around 138.6 per cent of GDP, and Rome expects its deficit to move above the EU’s three per cent ceiling.

Yet French debt has recently come under greater pressure than Italian debt.

Spain provides an even more striking contrast. During the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis in 2012, Spanish ten-year bonds yielded around five percentage points more than French debt. Spain’s ten-year yield is now approximately 75 basis points below France’s.

The difference reflects stronger Spanish growth and improved confidence in Madrid’s finances, although investors are watching Spanish and Portuguese debt for evidence that the French sell-off is spreading elsewhere in the currency union.

So far, the movement is not comparable with the eurozone crisis of the early 2010s. At that time, Italian bond spreads above Germany exceeded 500 basis points and Greece’s reached thousands of basis points. Current differences remain far smaller.

The direction of capital flows is nevertheless notable. Germany has re-established itself as Europe’s principal bond-market safe haven despite questions earlier this year about Berlin’s increased spending on defence and infrastructure. German ten-year yields fell as investors bought Bunds during the recent turbulence.

Higher sovereign yields feed into the interest costs faced by governments when refinancing debt and can affect borrowing throughout an economy. For a country already running a large deficit, rising yields make efforts to restore the public finances more difficult because an increasing share of expenditure must eventually be devoted to debt servicing.

TOKYO – For decades, the US enjoyed a remarkable luxury: its two biggest creditors, Japan and China, kept showing up at Treasury auctions with checkbooks open. Now, Donald Trump’s trade wars, tariff threats and widening geopolitical confrontations raise an uncomfortable question: what happens if Washington’s most reliable bankers decide they’ve had enough? Granted, global investors […]

The post When Asia’s central banks turn bond vigilante on Trump appeared first on Asia Times.

Marine Le Pen has set out plans to cut French public spending by €140 billion by 2032, reduce the deficit and impose a constitutional constraint on future borrowing, placing France’s deteriorating public finances at the centre of the campaign for the 2027 presidential election.

Marine Le Pen has presented a five-year fiscal programme under which a National Rally administration would seek €140 billion in net savings by 2032, restore France’s primary budget balance within 18 months and bring the headline deficit back below the European Union’s three per cent threshold by 2030.

The proposals, presented on Tuesday as Le Pen outlined the financial trajectory she would pursue during a presidential term, come as France faces rising borrowing costs and a public debt ratio approaching 120 per cent of GDP.

The scale of the problem was underlined on the same day by France’s Directorate-General of the Treasury. Its latest report on public debt projects the debt ratio at 119.3 per cent of GDP this year before rising to 121.7 per cent in 2027. Debt stood at 115.7 per cent at the end of 2025.

EU Today has already reported that French borrowing costs and concerns over the sustainability of the country’s finances have begun to weigh on the euro and widen the gap between French and German government bond yields.

Le Pen’s programme is therefore aimed not only at French voters but at financial markets increasingly focused on whether Paris can prevent debt from continuing to rise.

According to the proposals outlined on Tuesday, spending reductions would be concentrated heavily in the first three years of a Le Pen presidency. She would also seek to introduce what she calls a constitutional “golden rule”, requiring successive governments to reduce the budget deficit each year.

The measure would be put to a referendum and is intended to make deficit reduction binding beyond an individual government’s annual budget decisions.

Le Pen has also proposed reducing France’s public debt to around 112 per cent of GDP by 2032. That would reverse the trajectory currently expected by the French government, although the National Rally’s assumptions would depend on its ability to deliver the proposed savings and on economic growth during the next presidential term.

Among the most politically significant proposals is a plan to restrict France’s net contribution to the EU budget to €5 billion. The party argues that some European spending should instead be financed through harmonised taxes on products such as tobacco and alcohol.

Le Pen also expects substantial savings from tighter immigration controls and the introduction of the National Rally’s proposed “national preference” rules for access to parts of the welfare system. Her programme estimates that measures connected with immigration could eventually produce savings of as much as €29 billion annually.

Other elements include changes to pension policy, reductions in corporate and energy taxation, measures against VAT fraud, the abolition of more than 120 taxes and a reduction in the number of state agencies.

The programme marks an attempt by Le Pen to make fiscal policy a central part of a campaign that has until now been dominated largely by immigration, security and questions surrounding France’s political fragmentation.

The timing is significant. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government has itself introduced a difficult fiscal consolidation programme. The 2027 budget presented by the Finance Ministry envisages €54 billion in measures to improve the public finances, including €43 billion contained directly in the state and social-security budgets.

The government expects the deficit to fall from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2026 to five per cent next year. It forecasts growth of only 0.5 per cent this year before a recovery to one per cent in 2027.

The debt burden is becoming increasingly costly. Interest payments are expected to reach €91.2 billion in 2027, up from €79.2 billion this year, according to the Finance Ministry. By 2030, total public-sector interest costs are projected to reach 3.7 per cent of GDP.

That gives the presidential campaign an economic dimension that is difficult to separate from France’s relationship with Brussels. Paris remains subject to EU fiscal rules requiring a gradual reduction in its deficit, while any attempt to reduce the French contribution to the EU budget would require negotiations with the other member states.

Le Pen enters that debate from a strong electoral position. Recent polling examined by EU Today has placed her ahead in first-round scenarios for 2027, although the final field remains unsettled. EU Today reported in September that Le Pen was polling between 33 and 36 per cent depending on her opponents.

Her latest intervention shifts part of the campaign onto terrain traditionally associated with the centre-right: public spending, debt and the credibility of France’s finances.

With the government attempting to secure parliamentary support for its own austerity measures and French borrowing costs under closer scrutiny, the question of how the country pays for the state is now moving towards the centre of the contest to succeed Emmanuel Macron.

The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2025 on Monday as investors reacted to rising French borrowing costs, political uncertainty and doubts over Paris’s ability to stabilise its public finances before next year’s presidential election.

The euro fell to a 17-month low against the US dollar on Monday as renewed pressure on French government debt raised concern over the fiscal position of the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

The single currency dropped as far as $1.116 during trading, its weakest level since May 2025, before recovering part of the fall. By late Monday it was trading at around $1.121, still lower on the day.

The move followed a sharp sell-off in French government bonds and a widening gap between French and German borrowing costs.

According to market data published on Monday, the spread between French government debt and equivalent German Bunds had approached 160 basis points on Friday, its widest level since the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis in 2011.

The gap subsequently narrowed, but the scale of the movement has drawn attention back to France’s public finances.

French debt is already close to 120 per cent of gross domestic product and is expected to continue rising.

Investors are now assessing whether Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government can secure sufficient parliamentary support for measures intended to put the budget on a more sustainable path.

That challenge is becoming more difficult as France approaches its 2027 presidential election.

Spending cuts and tax increases are politically sensitive even under stable parliamentary conditions. Lecornu’s administration does not have an outright majority in the National Assembly, while opposition parties have challenged several elements of the government’s fiscal programme.

The French economy itself is providing little additional room.

Revised national accounts examined by EU Today showed that the economy failed to grow during the second quarter, while household purchasing power weakened and investment declined.

Slower growth makes deficit reduction harder because tax revenues tend to grow more slowly while welfare and debt-servicing costs remain high.

Bond markets have also changed the calculation.

For much of the period following the eurozone debt crisis, France was able to borrow at historically low rates. Higher interest rates now mean maturing debt has to be refinanced at greater cost.

France’s debt burden is therefore rising at the same time as the price of servicing it increases.

The euro’s fall on Monday shows that those concerns are no longer confined to the French bond market.

Currency traders are also assessing whether fiscal pressure in France could affect confidence in the wider euro area.

The comparison with the sovereign-debt crisis of 2010–12 should nevertheless be treated cautiously.

France remains one of Europe’s largest and most diversified economies, and the eurozone now has institutional mechanisms and European Central Bank instruments that did not exist at the beginning of the earlier crisis.

There is also no indication that France is unable to finance itself.

What markets are pricing is an increase in the risk attached to holding French debt and growing uncertainty over the country’s medium-term fiscal trajectory.

The euro has now fallen for four successive weeks against the dollar and has lost more than three per cent over that period.

US monetary policy is contributing to the movement. Persistent inflation indicators have supported the dollar even as expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve interest-rate increase have declined.

For Europe, however, Monday’s trading was dominated by France.

French fiscal policy has been a domestic political dispute for much of the past year. The widening bond spread and the euro’s fall show that it is increasingly becoming a eurozone market issue.

The global bond markets are a sensitive lot. And they’ve been having a particularly tricky time lately. Spooked by high inflation, high interest rates and high levels of government debt across the world, those markets have become less stable over the summer. The prices of government bonds – what governments sell to investors – have gone down. […]

The post Blame AI for global bond market tremors appeared first on Asia Times.

TOKYO — Anyone betting that inflation risks are fading should look at the US Treasury market. The sharp selloff in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) suggests the world’s biggest bond market is growing less convinced that price pressures are contained. Investors are rethinking the inflation outlook, with implications for Federal Reserve policy, real rates and stock […]

The post Bond markets aren’t buying the inflation-is-tamed fairy tale appeared first on Asia Times.

French public-sector workers went on strike on Tuesday as demonstrations and school blockades spread across the country, two days before the government is due to present its 2027 budget.

Teachers, firefighters and health workers were among those taking part, with around 170 demonstrations planned nationally. High-school students also blockaded hundreds of schools, extending protests that began over teacher shortages, overcrowded classrooms and conditions in the education system.

The industrial action, accompanied by the traditional violence, places Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government under additional pressure before ministers present the draft finance and social-security budgets on Thursday, 1st October.

The French Education Ministry reported that 13.71 per cent of teachers participated in Tuesday’s strike across most of metropolitan France and Réunion. Participation reached 15.28 per cent among primary-school teachers and 12.74 per cent in secondary education.

Separate student action affected hundreds of secondary schools.

Protests were reported in Paris, Lille, Lyon, Nice and other cities. Some demonstrations involved clashes with police and damage outside schools, although much of Tuesday’s public-sector action proceeded without major disruption.

The dispute is centred partly on government spending plans.

Trade unions oppose a proposed freeze in the salary index used to calculate public-sector pay and argue that years of inflation have already reduced employees’ purchasing power. Firefighters have also demanded additional resources following the extensive wildfires that struck France during the summer.

The government is preparing its budget against a worsening fiscal background.

France’s public debt has climbed close to 120 per cent of gross domestic product, while the budget deficit remains well above the European Union’s 3 per cent ceiling.

EU Today reported earlier this month that French debt was heading towards 120 per cent of GDP, accompanied by an increase in the premium investors demand to hold French government bonds rather than German debt.

Higher interest rates are adding to the pressure. Debt-servicing costs have become one of the largest areas of central government spending, restricting the room available for tax reductions or additional expenditure.

The government has also reduced its 2026 economic growth forecast to 0.5 per cent.

Finance Minister Roland Lescure has acknowledged that France will miss its earlier deficit target, leaving the 2027 budget with the difficult task of demonstrating a credible path towards stabilising the public finances without provoking further political resistance.

The budget is due to be formally presented on Thursday. The Finance Ministry has confirmed that Lescure, Public Accounts Minister David Amiel, Labour Minister Jean-Pierre Farandou and Health Minister Stéphanie Rist will present the finance and social-security bills following the Council of Ministers.

The argument is taking place while EU fiscal surveillance is itself entering a more demanding phase.

Under the revised Stability and Growth Pact, member states are expected to follow agreed medium-term expenditure paths designed to bring deficits and debt onto sustainable trajectories.

EU Today recently examined how the EU’s fiscal rules face an enforcement test in October, when finance ministers and the European Commission return to national budget compliance. France is one of the countries where implementation will receive particularly close attention because of its debt level, persistent deficit and political difficulty in securing parliamentary agreement for spending reductions.

The domestic parliamentary arithmetic remains difficult. Lecornu’s government does not control an outright majority in the National Assembly, meaning the budget could become the subject of amendments, confidence votes or further negotiations with opposition parties.

The government has previously relied on Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass financial legislation without a conventional parliamentary vote, although use of the mechanism exposes a government to motions of no confidence.

Tuesday’s strikes add another layer to those negotiations. Trade unions have indicated that further action is possible if the budget contains measures they regard as unacceptable. The CGT has demanded changes to planned spending reductions and public-sector pay policy.

The precise scale of the government’s fiscal measures will become clearer on Thursday. For France, the budget will have to address three pressures simultaneously: deteriorating public finances, the EU’s fiscal framework and domestic opposition to further restraint.

TOKYO — The bond vigilantes are back — and now they’re patrolling every major debt market at once. As deficits balloon, spending runs unchecked and oil prices spike, investors are reasserting control over markets that once seemed shielded from shocks and sending yields skyrocketing. The revolt spans the US, Japan, Europe and beyond as a […]

The post Bond vigilantes on a savage hunt as global yields run wild appeared first on Asia Times.

The most recent winner of the National Magazine Award for feature writing describes his turn to payday lending apps when AI gobbled up his livelihood (aka penning promotional web content for business clients). Sharp and darkly funny, the essay chronicles yet another nail in the coffin of the American dream:

Albert founder Yinon Ravid has said that he chose his app’s name for its suggestion of the kind of “smart, unassuming friend” you might come to for financial advice, but today, when I hear the name Albert, I am far more likely to picture an overwhelming force bent on my total destruction, a figure you might spot while being burned alive in a dream—black-robed, pale, teeth bared. When I first joined the app, about eighteen months ago, Albert offered me $25.00. To acquire this loan, I was required to pay an additional fee: A $6.99 instant deposit charge plus the cost of a $19.99-per-month subscription to Albert’s Standard plan, due in one week’s time alongside the full loan repayment. (If I really wanted to make the most of my $25.00, I also had the option of Albert’s $39.99-per-month Genius plan, which, among a very small handful of other talents, can “find restaurants based on your location, or in a specific area.”) On its own, this might’ve been manageable, but, true to the CRL’s findings, Albert’s offerings alone couldn’t keep me afloat, and so I soon signed up for the rest of the payday apps, each one toting its share of instant deposit and subscription fees. (Gallingly, Dave—the only publicly traded company of the bunch, valued at $4.72 billion as of this writing—has the nerve to ask for a tip after each transaction, a move that I suspect even the flintiest strip mall grift artists would dismiss as gauche.)

KARACHI: Fitch Ratings has assigned a ‘B-‘ rating to Pakistan’s proposed U.S. dollar-denominated bond, with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR4,’ the ratings agency announced. Pakistan plans to use proceeds from the bond for general budgetary and sovereign financing purposes, according to Fitch. The bond rating is aligned with Pakistan’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating, while ... Read more

The post Fitch assigns Pakistan’s proposed dollar bond ‘B-‘ rating appeared first on BOL News.

KARACHI: State-run Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) has issued a fresh tender to procure one spot cargo of liquefied natural gas for delivery between September 4 and 8, as global supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East war continue to strain the country’s gas-fired power generation. PLL invited bids from international suppliers for a single cargo ... Read more

The post Pakistan returns to spot LNG market with fresh tender as power generation takes a hit appeared first on BOL News.

France has crossed a critical threshold as its public debt exceeded €3.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 117.5% of GDP. The French Court of Auditors has sounded the alarm over what it describes as an “alarming” fiscal situation, as public deficits hit record levels and debt-interest costs continue to soar.

Public Debt Exceeds €3.5 Trillion

During the first quarter of 2026, France’s public debt passed the symbolic milestone of €3.5 trillion, reaching €3.5361 trillion at the end of March. The figure underscores the scale of the country’s budgetary challenges.
To put this amount into perspective, France would theoretically have to sell its entire gold reserve, all publicly traded and privately held state assets—including companies such as EDF, Engie, and Airbus—as well as all government-owned buildings and land in an attempt to repay the debt in a single payment. Even such a drastic measure would likely fall short.

In just one quarter, France’s Maastricht-defined public debt increased by €75.6 billion, a sharp rise in a very short period. This growing debt burden reflects a longstanding reality: for more than fifty years, the French government, local authorities, and social security system have collectively spent more each year than they have collected in revenue, particularly through taxation. To cover this structural gap, France has continued borrowing from financial markets.

Debt-to-GDP Ratio Nears Historic High

Beyond the headline figure, analysts and financial institutions are particularly concerned about debt relative to economic output. According to France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), public debt now equals 117.5% of gross domestic product.

The increase has been dramatic. In 1980, public debt represented only 20% of GDP. By 2000, it had risen to approximately 60%. Over four decades, the debt-to-GDP ratio has nearly increased sixfold.

The current level of 117.5% is approaching the all-time record of 117.8% recorded in the first quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, President Emmanuel Macron launched an unprecedented economic rescue effort, pledging to spend “whatever it takes” to prevent economic collapse.

Although the health crisis has long since passed, France’s debt trajectory has not slowed significantly. Within the European Union, only Greece and Italy have higher debt ratios, making France the third most indebted country in Europe.

Warnings from the Court of Auditors

In response to what it views as a critical situation, France’s independent Court of Auditors, responsible for overseeing public finances, issued a warning report describing the state of the nation’s finances as “alarming.”

The report, revealed by France Inter and released ten months before the 2027 elections, calls for “strong, credible, and swift measures” to restore fiscal stability.

The court highlights several aggravating factors. First, France remains the only country in the eurozone whose debt level is higher today than it was at the end of the COVID-19 crisis. Second, public deficits continue to break records. France posted a budget deficit equal to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, the second-highest in the eurozone after Italy.

The government’s goal of keeping the deficit at 5% is viewed as unrealistic by the Court of Auditors, which fears a further deterioration of public finances.

Debt-Interest Costs Are Soaring

A particularly troubling development is the rapid increase in debt-servicing costs. As debt accumulates and interest rates rise in financial markets, the amount spent on interest payments has grown dramatically.

In the current state budget, debt-servicing expenses have become the government’s single largest expenditure category, surpassing spending on the national education system (excluding pension obligations).

Paradoxically, this situation coincides with a significant increase in taxation. Taxes rose by €38 billion across 2025 and 2026 as part of efforts to limit further deficit growth. Yet France already has the highest overall tax burden in Europe when taxes and social contributions are combined.

This creates both political and economic tensions: higher taxes have not been sufficient to slow the growth of public debt, raising questions about the effectiveness of current fiscal measures.

Structural Challenges Extend Beyond Short-Term Solutions

France’s current trajectory highlights a troubling economic reality: structural public spending is growing faster than tax revenues, creating a persistent deficit that is difficult to eliminate.

Programs such as social welfare, pensions, healthcare, and public investment involve long-term commitments, while tax revenues tend to fluctuate with economic conditions.

This divergence between economic growth and debt growth raises a fundamental question for France’s public finances. If GDP expands by only 1% to 2% annually while debt continues to grow by 3% to 4% per year, the debt-to-GDP ratio will inevitably continue rising unless major policy changes are implemented.

French voters heading to the polls in 2027 will likely face a difficult choice between maintaining current levels of public services and restoring fiscal sustainability.

Breaking the Debt Spiral

To reverse the trend, experts and institutions such as the Court of Auditors recommend a combination of measures: controlling the growth of public spending, improving the efficiency of existing expenditures, broadening the tax base without increasing marginal tax rates, and accelerating economic growth to boost revenues.

As the eurozone’s second-largest economy after Germany, France possesses significant economic resources. However, meaningful structural reforms will require political consensus and a willingness to accept difficult compromises.

In the short term, the government must demonstrate that its deficit-reduction commitments are credible. In the medium term, comprehensive reforms of public spending—particularly in pensions and healthcare—appear unavoidable. Over the long term, only sustained economic growth combined with spending discipline will be capable of reversing the debt dynamics that have characterized France for decades.

L’article France: Public Debt Surges Past €3.5 Trillion, Raising Serious Concerns est apparu en premier sur FrenchDailyNews.