Dig a trench for a canal that will run 107 kilometres (66 miles) across northern France and you expect scraps: a stretch of road, perhaps, or a lone farmstead. At Sermaize, in the Hauts-de-France region, archaeologists from France’s National Institute for Preventive Archaeological Research (Inrap) found something much rarer. It is a complete workshop, with […]
“Marine Le Pen has reinvented herself. Her style now is more moderate,” reckons Jacques Rupnik, a French political scientist, ahead of the country’s widely anticipated battle for the presidency.
Many voters in France will vote for the candidate they see as having the best chance of defeating the far-right leader, Rupnik explains.
“All polls show that if the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon faced Marine Le Pen in the second round of France’s presidential election, Marine Le Pen would win,” he says, explaining that many French votes are unwilling to back Mélenchon.
In his interview with Denník N, Rupnik claims Mélenchon is the first French presidential candidate to seek support from immigrants so explicitly.
Find out:
How Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have used the migration debate for their campaigns.
Why the presidential frontrunners do not understand economic issues.
Rupnik’s assessment of Emmanuel Macron’s two presidential terms.
Who does Marine Le Pen look up to?
Polls suggest that if France held a presidential election now, far-right Marine Le Pen and far-left Mélenchon would make the second round. What does this tell us about France?
France is divided and polarised. Young people in particular tend to lean towards more radical parties. Establishment parties are old and worn; they have lost their appeal. They have little to say, except for claiming that others are dangerous or worse. But you must bring something new to an election. But after ten years of Macron, that is very difficult.
And it is not entirely true that all polls predict Mélenchon will reach the second round; they often place former prime minister Edouard Philippe ahead of him. Mélenchon is powering ahead in polls because he has launched his campaign and is very good at it. But, nothing is decided.
In French presidential elections there are two rounds. In the first round, you vote for your preferred candidate; in the second, you vote for the lesser evil. So, for most voters, the question will not only be whom they prefer, but also who has the best chance of defeating Le Pen in the second round.
And that is very important. All polls say that if Mélenchon faced Le Pen in the second round, he would lose. Many people are not willing to vote for Mélenchon. A centrist candidate has the best chance of defeating Le Pen, so for now it looks like former prime minister Philippe.
But only if another former prime minister, Gabriel Attal, withdraws his candidacy.
Yes. We have two strong parties at the extremes, and the space in the centre has shrunk. The narrower it becomes, the more candidates appear within it. Every week, another politician tells media: “You know what, I would give it a go.”
Attal, of course, wants to win over Macron supporters — that is, voters on the centre left. The fact he is in the race matters even if he withdraws and endorses another candidate. That may prove a good strategy.
If Le Pen and Mélenchon reach the second round, many would vote Le Pen. Why?
Marine Le Pen has reinvented herself. Not in the sense that she has been thinking about what new ideas to bring forward, but now her style now is more moderate. It is no longer the brash style associated with her father.
Perhaps she took her cue from Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, seeing a candidate whom everyone feared, but no radical changes followed her election because she adapted quickly to European realities.
Le Pen points out that in several European countries, including Finland and Sweden, the far right has been in government and nothing has happened.
At the same time, Marine Le Pen managed to break through a certain barrier, and some moderate rightwing voters have shifted to her side.
How did that happen?
Previously, the moderate right was stronger and Le Pen’s camp was weaker. The type of rightwing voters who voted for Jacques Chirac have now shifted their weigh behind more radical options. The balance has shifted, and right-wing voters are saying: “Why should we, the right, be excluded from politics simply because Macron has failed and the Le Pen has grown stronger?”
Immigration is another reason behind growing support for Le Pen. Mélenchon is also capitalising on the immigration debate, but in the opposite way to her.
Please explain that.
Mélenchon opposes Le Pen’s position by arguing that immigrants integrate. The Le Pen camp says: “No, they have come from a different culture and their attitude is anti-French.” Le Pen’s camp says that integration works poorly, that immigrants do not even want to integrate instead preferring to live in their own communities.
“Mélenchon has therefore adopted the theory of grand remplacement, but instead of presenting it as a threat, he has turned it into a huge opportunity.”
And Mélenchon argues that it is fine for immigrants to remain in their own communities, practise their own religions, for women to wear headscarves and so on.
The great replacement conspiracy theory (“grand remplacement“) should be mentioned since the far right embraced it long ago. It is the idea that the native French population will gradually be replaced by new immigrants.
And Mélenchon now says: “What great replacement? On the contrary, it is an opportunity for France. He says: “The more of us there are, the better.”
Mélenchon has therefore adopted the theory of grand remplacement, but instead of presenting it as a threat, he has turned it into a huge opportunity. Of course, everyone knows what he is aiming for. It is an election campaign, and he is appealing to voters who are themselves immigrants.
Previously, no one focused on immigrants in elections except Le Pen who used them as a bogeyman. And now Mélenchon says: “We are appealing to Muslims.” He says Muslim headscarves are fine and religious symbols are fine. He says anyone who opposes this is racist.
On the contrary, such statements mainly play into Mélenchon’s hands. Of course, calling a referendum on the issue in France is not so simple since such laws already exist. The law states clearly that you can do what you want at home, but if you work in the public sector you must refrain from displaying your religion. There are laws covering this, and there is absolutely no need to devise new ones. Le Pen’s ideas in this regard seem to be mere campaign slogans; we cannot take them literally.
Yet, a major Le Monde poll shows the French are more concerned about the economy than immigration. Immigration ranks fourth, after social issues and ecology.
That is true, but other polls show that, for many voters, the issues of migration and safety overlap considerably.
So, as concerns about security become increasingly prominent, people are more concerned about security and often link it to migration. Marine Le Pen will certainly try to make it one of the key issues, alongside the economy.
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Images of burning schools, buses, and vicious assaults, along with a report of attempted murder, have once again hit France this morning, Oct. 1, as high school blockades mark their second week across France. What began as protests demanding better conditions for students and teachers has devolved into violence at dozens of locations, concentrated at schools with large immigrant populations
This morning, Oct. 1, further clashes, burning buses, and arson attacks have been reported. French news outlet BFMTV is even speaking of murder attempts being carried out by certain students in one incident where the leadership team of one school in Marseille was doused in gasoline. In response, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is convening an interministerial emergency meeting at 1 p.m. to contain the crisis.
BREAKING: Migrant student youths have set fire to multiple buses and even fire trucks in the French city of Marseille as chaos spreads.
The Marseille transport authority, RTM, said several of its buses "were targeted near high schools in the north and east of Marseille,"… pic.twitter.com/hv8tilIB3B
In Marseille, the regional government said an “unacceptable line” had been crossed at Victor Hugo High School, where “the principal, the deputy principal, the general secretary and the team leader were assaulted and doused with gasoline,” according to the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region, cited by BFMTV.
BFMTV also reported that a naval firefighters’ vehicle was looted and set on fire in the city. Viral videos also show a bus on fire with numerous Black and Arab youths pelting the bus with stones and dancing on its roof. The Marseille transport authority, RTM, said several of its buses “were targeted near high schools in the north and east of Marseille,” that “drivers had to leave their vehicles in a hurry, and one of them was assaulted.”
The transit authority condemned “these irresponsible acts.” ICI reported that two buses caught fire in northern Marseille and that two buses were damaged near Floride High School in the 14th arrondissement. A dumpster was also set alight outside Victor Hugo High School. Authorities said 40 high schools in the Bouches-du-Rhône department were affected Thursday, and 18 of them were fully blocked.
The regional authority said the violence was no longer a protest.
“Mortar fire at staff, vehicle fires, gates torn down, stoning and intolerable intrusions: this is not contestation, it is delinquency,” it said, according to ICI. “Those who burn our high schools are attacking the Republic.”
BREAKING: Nelson Mandela High School is currently on fire in the French city of Nantes.
Schools across France are being set on fire as student protests and blockades rage on.
In Nantes, the hall of Nelson-Mandela High School was destroyed by what deputy principal Gaëlle Cordier called a “deliberate” fire that spread to the façade before firefighters brought it under control, RTL and Ouest-France reported. The school was expected to stay closed for days, and RTL said the administration expected a closure of several weeks.
The Nelson Mandela High School of Nantes actually just had a major “eco-friendly inclusive” renovation. The building cost €77 million in taxpayer money. However, the all-wooden design, with the interior reportedly designed for “positive energy,” has now gone up in flames. It could cost tens of millions to rebuild.
Despite the threat to life and property, the far-left pro-migration party France Unbowed (LFI) has tried to bolster the student movement, which is now spiraling out of control.
BREAKING: Schools are burning across France as violent student blockades grow. The mayhem shows no sign of slowing down despite 625 arrests.
Oct. 1 Nelson-Mandela high school in Nantes burned, façade and hall destroyed. The school is expected to be closed for several… pic.twitter.com/v1fxbNuWfH
A fire at the private Talensac High School in the city center destroyed the entrance doors.
“The same wreckers everywhere. The same violence everywhere. The same political exploitation everywhere,” Christelle Morançais, president of the Pays de la Loire region, wrote. “No demand to satisfy, just the will to sow chaos and destroy everything. This is not the youth of France.”
Staff have also been repeatedly attacked in other schools by migrant students hunting in packs.
France in chaos: Youths are literally hunting teachers and school staff in packs.
A chemistry teacher was violently attacked and kicked in his back as rioters chase him at the César Baggio high school in Lille, France.
Elsewhere Thursday, the prefecture said the façade of Lumière High School in Lyon’s 8th arrondissement was set on fire, Actu Lyon reported. In Annecy, fires were set outside the Berthollet, Baudelaire and Sommeiller high schools. Firefighters said they were working to keep the flames from reaching the buildings.
The unrest built through the week. On Wednesday, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said 356 high schools were disrupted, 625 people were arrested and 83 police officers and gendarmes were injured, in a tally he described as not yet final, Europe 1 reported. Education Minister Édouard Geffray said 119 students and staff had been injured since the blockades began, including 34 staff members. “That is unprecedented in the national education system,” he said.
In addition, the following cases have been reported:
In Wattrelos, in the Nord, a car was driven against the gates of the Émile-Zola middle-and-high school and set on fire Wednesday. The school was closed, and prosecutors opened an inquiry for arson, Le Figaro reported.
In Montpellier on Tuesday, a fire destroyed the caretaker’s lodge at a side entrance of Jean-Mermoz High School and the school was evacuated.
In Bordeaux on Wednesday, a bin fire outside Gustave-Eiffel High School spread to the façades of two houses across the street, and firework mortars were fired toward the school, ICI reported. Ten people were arrested in the Gironde for arson, damage and throwing projectiles.
At Paul-Éluard High School in Saint-Denis, outside Paris, a fire damaged the main gate. Île-de-France region president Valérie Pécresse said replacement, security and cleaning up would cost about €100,000, and put total damage at regional high schools near €1 million, including about 10 gates out of service.
Geffray also cited a teacher beaten in the Nord, a head teacher injured by a firework mortar in the Hauts-de-Seine, and another threatened with death in the Essonne.
As Remix News reported yesterday, Geffray said: “This violence is unspeakable.” However, despite his threats to launch legal proceedings against rioters, the violence has only grown far worse today, Oct. 1.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has called any escalation “irresponsible.” Nuñez has described some of the violence as closer to urban rioting than to a labor protest.
A 93-year-old woman was found dead in her home Sunday after neighbors, with police discovering a 34-year-old Sudanese man naked and lying on her body when they entered after emergency calls from neighbors, prosecutors said. The man was placed under formal investigation Tuesday for murder preceded or followed by rape.
The victim, identified by French media as Marie-Louise and known to some neighbors as “Juliette,” had been bedridden for months after a stroke and could not move without help. She lived in the Minimes district, near the Cité Bourbaki housing complex.
Neighbors called police about 5 p.m. Sunday after hearing shouting, insults and sounds of blows coming from the house. Officers found the front door locked and entered through the rear. They reported blood on the floor and a mattress in a bedroom before finding the woman unclothed and motionless on the bathroom floor.
The suspect was also unclothed and appeared intoxicated, police and prosecutors said. Some reports stated they found the man either asleep or dazed on top of the woman’s body when they entered.
He resisted arrest and injured an officer, according to the Toulouse prosecutor’s office. A breathalyzer test later showed an alcohol level of 0.92 milligrams per liter.
Prosecutor David Charmatz said an autopsy found injuries suggestive of sexual violence, a rib fracture, a spinal fracture, facial bruises and traumatic injuries to the neck consistent with asphyxia. Further tests were ordered to confirm the findings and determine the exact cause of death.
The man was placed under formal investigation Tuesday for murder preceded or followed by rape. Prosecutors asked that he be held in pretrial detention. He had little to say in questioning, and a psychiatric evaluation was planned, according to local reports.
French outlets have given conflicting accounts of the suspect’s immigration status. Some early reports described him as a homeless man living in the country illegally. La Dépêche du Midi later reported that he was a Sudanese refugee with legal status and no criminal record. Investigators have not publicly said how he entered the home. Neighbors told local media the woman often left a door unlocked so caregivers and relatives could get in.
Residents described Marie-Louise as a familiar figure, with one neighbor stating she was “the little grandmother of the neighborhood.” People who knew her said neighbors routinely helped with daily tasks. Flowers were left outside the house as residents mourned.
The investigation is being handled by specialized police units in Toulouse. A judge is expected to decide on the next legal steps in the case as forensic and toxicology results come in.
China has warned that it will respond if the European Union introduces new trade restrictions targeting Chinese companies or products, as France and Germany push for stronger European instruments to address what they regard as unfair commercial practices.
China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the warning after reports that several EU governments were discussing a mechanism modelled partly on Section 301 of US trade law, which allows Washington to investigate foreign trade practices and impose countermeasures.
Beijing described such an approach as protectionist and unilateral and warned that it could damage continuing negotiations between China and the EU.
“If the European side insists on introducing discriminatory restrictive measures against Chinese companies or products,” the ministry said, China would “resolutely respond” to defend the interests of its industries.
The warning comes as Europe’s trade relationship with China is moving further up the political agenda.
According to the European Commission’s latest EU-China trade figures, EU exports to China were worth €199.5 billion in 2025 while imports reached €559.5 billion.
The goods deficit stood at €359.9 billion, compared with €312.2 billion in 2024.
China remained the EU’s largest source of goods imports and its fourth-largest export market.
Brussels argues that the scale of the imbalance is connected not only to competitiveness but also to state support, market-access restrictions and other structural differences between the two economies.
China disputes that assessment and has repeatedly accused the EU of using industrial and security arguments to justify protectionism.
The argument is already visible in several industries.
The EU imposed countervailing duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles after an investigation concluded that state subsidies were giving Chinese manufacturers an unfair advantage in the European market.
The automotive dispute is important because Europe is simultaneously trying to attract Chinese manufacturing investment.
France and Spain addressed that question during President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Madrid.
Macron and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez agreed on the need for greater European unity in responding to Chinese competition. They also discussed whether Chinese investors entering strategically important European industries should be required to provide stronger commitments on issues such as technology transfer.
Macron said that companies on both sides of the Pyrenees needed protection when they faced unfair competition and argued that “the only response that works is European.”
France has generally favoured stronger European trade defences.
Germany has traditionally approached the issue more cautiously because major German manufacturers have substantial commercial exposure to China. Increasing competition from Chinese producers, particularly in industrial sectors where German companies were once dominant, has altered the debate.
Reports that Berlin and Paris are now working together on a stronger trade instrument therefore suggest a potentially important shift.
The two countries are said to be considering a European mechanism inspired by the American Section 301 process, although no final proposal has yet been adopted by the European Commission.
EU trade law already provides several instruments.
Brussels can impose anti-dumping or anti-subsidy duties following investigations, use the Foreign Subsidies Regulation to examine state-backed investment and procurement, and deploy the Anti-Coercion Instrument where another country uses economic pressure against the EU or a member state.
The discussion now concerns whether those instruments are sufficient when governments believe a problem extends across industries rather than affecting an individual product.
At the same time, Brussels and Beijing have established a Trade and Investment Consultations mechanism, with workstreams covering trade balances, export controls, intellectual property and World Trade Organisation reform.
China’s Commerce Ministry has warned that introducing tougher measures while those talks continue would damage trust.
That leaves the EU facing two parallel choices: continue negotiations intended to narrow the trade dispute while also developing stronger instruments in case those negotiations fail.
France and Germany are increasingly arguing that Europe needs greater leverage.
Beijing’s response is that using that leverage against Chinese companies would bring countermeasures.
The next stage will depend on whether the Franco-German proposal develops into a formal EU initiative. If it does, the dispute will move beyond duties on particular products towards a broader argument over how Europe intends to manage its economic relationship with China.
France and Spain have openly welcomed the prospect of Britain rejoining the European Union after British Prime Minister Andy Burnham put full membership back among the options for the country’s long-term relationship with Europe.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez addressed the question during Macron’s state visit to Spain on Wednesday, 30 September. Asked whether Britain could return under Burnham, Macron responded in English: “Welcome back.” He added that a British decision to move in that direction would be good news for both Britain and Europe.
Sánchez was similarly positive, saying Spain would “open our arms” if Britain sought to return.
Their comments followed Burnham’s intervention at the Labour Party conference and subsequent interviews in which he argued that Britain should reconsider the full range of options for its future relationship with the EU.
Those could include remaining under the present post-Brexit arrangements, returning to the customs union or single market, or ultimately “going all the way” and applying for EU membership again.
More recently, the argument has moved from diplomatic language to practical economic questions. Burnham has been pressing Brussels to ensure British companies are not disadvantaged by the EU’s emerging industrial preference rules, with access to the proposed “Made in Europe” framework becoming one of the principal issues ahead of the next EU-UK summit.
Macron nevertheless made clear in Madrid that closer relations could not become a system under which Britain selected individual advantages of EU membership while remaining outside the corresponding obligations.
That question dominated much of the Brexit negotiation after the 2016 referendum. Access to the single market is built around the free movement of goods, services, capital and people, while participation also entails accepting common rules and enforcement mechanisms.
A British application to rejoin would be a separate and considerably larger process. Under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, Britain would have to apply for membership and secure unanimous agreement from the existing member states before negotiations could be completed.
A returning Britain could not assume that the special arrangements it held before Brexit would automatically be restored. The UK previously had an opt-out from the euro, remained outside the Schengen passport-free area and benefited from a budget rebate.
Any future terms would have to be negotiated.
Public opinion has also changed since the referendum. A YouGov poll in June found 55 per cent of Britons supported rejoining the EU and 34 per cent opposed it, although support falls when respondents are asked about specific membership conditions.
For the moment, however, Burnham is not proposing an immediate membership application or referendum.
The next test will be the UK-EU summit expected in November. The meeting was originally planned for July but was postponed following Keir Starmer’s resignation, with EU Today reporting at the time that the political transition in London had complicated preparations.
Burnham wants the summit to advance negotiations on industry, trade and migration and has said he intends to use the period around the meeting to set out the longer-term options available to Britain.
The immediate negotiations are therefore likely to focus on economic integration rather than membership.
Greater access to European markets would almost certainly involve greater regulatory alignment. The political argument in Britain will concern how far the country is prepared to accept common European rules in return for reducing barriers created by Brexit.
Macron and Sánchez have now made clear that, if the discussion eventually moves beyond closer economic cooperation towards membership itself, two of the EU’s largest states would welcome it.
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