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Erdogan playing East and West, winning room to maneuver

Less than two months after his government hosted the NATO summit — which was framed as proof of Turkey’s pivotal role in transatlantic security — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proposed full Turkish membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an entity that has been described as being anti-NATO or a “rogue NATO.” The apparent contradiction […]

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Trump-Xi summit bade farewell to ‘China plus one’

President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington, greeting him in person at Joint Base Andrews, a rare gesture for an American president. Critics in both parties warned that the pageantry would reward a rival. However, the red carpet, the state dinner with its exquisite menu, […]

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So where’s the ‘intelligence explosion?’

One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, […]

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Trump family-tied drone maker woos Pakistan at India’s expense

Powerus, a US defense company with ties to President Donald Trump’s sons, drew scrutiny after signing a memorandum of understanding this month with the Pakistani Army and offering Islamabad access to Ukrainian drone technology, sparking debate over the deal’s potential impact on India and wider regional security. Powerus was founded in October 2025 by veterans […]

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For Ukraine, some good news but also some bad news

If you do not follow the Twitter feed of the Ukrainian Third Army Corps, you should. It does not tweet a great deal, but when it does, especially recently, it has been fascinating. For those of you who do not know of it, the Third Corps is one of the best units in the Ukrainian military […]

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Struggle over Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb straits is centuries old

Over recent months, the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb have become synonymous with geopolitical jostling. Whoever controls these narrow waterways governs the flow of maritime traffic from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean – and with it, a vitally significant chunk of global trade. However, conflict over these straits […]

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Trump rejects deal, Iran diplomat calls for ‘negotiated solution’

As US President Donald Trump publicly rejected Iran’s proposal for a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the Iranian foreign minister reiterated that “there is no alternative to a negotiated solution.” “There’s always hope for diplomacy,” though the Trump-led United States has been an untrustworthy negotiator, Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said during a Sunday appearance […]

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Are the Americans returning to Myanmar? They never really left

Adam Castillo, a former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar who had lobbied for sanctions relief in exchange for US, was released in recent days after spending over three months in detention. In the same week, Time magazine’s Charlie Campbell sat down with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw. The coup […]

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Time’s no longer on Israel’s side in America

For eight decades, the Israeli political and security establishment has operated on a premise so deeply embedded that it is rarely stated as a premise at all: that American support is not a policy but a condition of nature, as fixed as the Mediterranean coastline. Administrations would come and go, presidents would hector and cajole, […]

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The politics limiting US arms deliveries to Taiwan

On March 28, 2025 a rollout ceremony took place at Lockheed Martin’s F-16 production facility in Greenville, South Carolina. Two F16V block 70 jets were ready for final testing, and the ceremony marked the formal handover to Taiwan. The Greenville ceremony was attended by Taiwan’s Defense Minister and by Taiwan’s US representative. Taiwan does not […]

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How US and China can nimbly escape the Thucydides Trap

The most consequential sentence of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington may also be the simplest: “The Thucydides Trap can be overcome.” This line, delivered during Xi’s speech at the White House arrival ceremony, provides a better key to understanding the summit than the rich references to the history of US-China exchanges and the […]

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Taiwan’s ‘silicon shield’ is in a race against time

When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Washington on September 24, AI and Taiwan shared the agenda. Xi said AI should remain “under human control” and called for continued US-China dialogue on its risks and benefits. On Taiwan, he urged Washington to “oppose Taiwan independence” and handle the issue “with caution.” Trump, for his […]

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N Korea’s hypersonic test a check on Japan’s nuclear ambitions

North Korea’s recent hypersonic test signals an evasive theater nuclear strike capability aimed directly at Japan—a proxy warning backed by Russia and China as Japan rethinks its nuclear taboos. This month, multiple media outlets reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the test launch of an upgraded hypersonic missile system from the country’s […]

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Bond vigilantes on a savage hunt as global yields run wild

TOKYO — The bond vigilantes are back — and now they’re patrolling every major debt market at once. As deficits balloon, spending runs unchecked and oil prices spike, investors are reasserting control over markets that once seemed shielded from shocks and sending yields skyrocketing. The revolt spans the US, Japan, Europe and beyond as a […]

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Drones could expand North Korea’s gray zone options

If the wars of 2026 have demonstrated anything, it is that drones have become a key element of modern warfare. In Eastern Europe, both Moscow and Kyiv deploy drones at an unprecedented scale across the theater’s so-called “kill zone.” For Ukraine, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have shown incredible tactical value, allowing its forces to strike […]

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