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What does it mean to win the AI race?

When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Washington last week, artificial intelligence was among the issues dividing their countries. Days earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had agreed to establish a formal AI dialogue, including an incident line, though its protocols had yet to be worked out. The summit produced no […]

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Bond markets aren’t buying the inflation-is-tamed fairy tale

TOKYO — Anyone betting that inflation risks are fading should look at the US Treasury market. The sharp selloff in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) suggests the world’s biggest bond market is growing less convinced that price pressures are contained. Investors are rethinking the inflation outlook, with implications for Federal Reserve policy, real rates and stock […]

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Baptism of Houthi fire for Mecca mutual defense pact

When Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to a mutual defense pact in August, it was principally seen as a political commitment. The “Mecca alliance,” as it was dubbed, stipulated that an armed attack on one would be treated as an attack on all three, accompanied by deeper military cooperation. That pact is no longer […]

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Asia can’t just pipeline its way around Hormuz

When governments talk about reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, the discussion usually turns to pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For Asian importers, that is only part of the story. The physical bottleneck is in the Persian Gulf, but much of the economic exposure sits thousands of kilometers to the […]

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Final US military withdrawal from Iraq is a major bonus for Iran

The last of the US-led coalition forces are leaving Iraq. It’s a significant bonus for Iran. The withdrawal date, September 30, was also the date by which Baghdad had pledged to bring numerous powerful Iran-backed militias under state control. But this deadline looks certain to be missed. This effectively means that, at a moment when […]

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Trump’s bid to stop Ukraine’s Russia strikes a strategic disconnect

In a recent phone call, Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelensky to stop Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. Whether a request or a demand, this appears, certainly at first glance, fundamentally different from the Biden administration’s policy of restricting the use of US long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia. The US president has justified […]

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Volkswagen-Gotion deal shows hard limits of China de-risking

Volkswagen has spent years trying to build a European battery business strong enough to carry its electric-car ambitions. Its latest deal pulls a Chinese partner deeper into that effort. On September 28, Germany’s Volkswagen and China’s Gotion High-Tech agreed to deepen a partnership that began in 2020. Gotion plans to invest about 1.1 billion euros […]

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The real loops of innovation

A note before we start. What follows works through the innovation loops of the semiconductor world, sub-sector by sub-sector, with eight diagrams along the way. They are complicated, despite a fair amount of effort to make them otherwise. Anyone who wants to skip the loops and the slides can find the conclusions in two places: […]

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RAF Fairford big-scale attack try represents serious threat to US

The British Police say that the five men arrested in connection with a suspected bomb plot targeting RAF Fairford are all British nationals. Nothing has yet been said officially about who was behind the plot. The risk to US assets and personnel in the UK remains extremely high. United Kingdom police are releasing the five […]

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After Trump-Xi summit, Nvidia RTX PRO 5500 gains export prospects

Beijing may let its technology giants buy more Nvidia high-end chips, giving the US chip designer a fresh foothold in China and keeping Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) developers tied to its software after months of stalled trade. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has asked major domestic companies, including ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent, […]

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Erdogan playing East and West, winning room to maneuver

Less than two months after his government hosted the NATO summit — which was framed as proof of Turkey’s pivotal role in transatlantic security — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proposed full Turkish membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an entity that has been described as being anti-NATO or a “rogue NATO.” The apparent contradiction […]

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Trump-Xi summit bade farewell to ‘China plus one’

President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington, greeting him in person at Joint Base Andrews, a rare gesture for an American president. Critics in both parties warned that the pageantry would reward a rival. However, the red carpet, the state dinner with its exquisite menu, […]

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So where’s the ‘intelligence explosion?’

One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, […]

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Trump family-tied drone maker woos Pakistan at India’s expense

Powerus, a US defense company with ties to President Donald Trump’s sons, drew scrutiny after signing a memorandum of understanding this month with the Pakistani Army and offering Islamabad access to Ukrainian drone technology, sparking debate over the deal’s potential impact on India and wider regional security. Powerus was founded in October 2025 by veterans […]

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For Ukraine, some good news but also some bad news

If you do not follow the Twitter feed of the Ukrainian Third Army Corps, you should. It does not tweet a great deal, but when it does, especially recently, it has been fascinating. For those of you who do not know of it, the Third Corps is one of the best units in the Ukrainian military […]

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Struggle over Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb straits is centuries old

Over recent months, the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb have become synonymous with geopolitical jostling. Whoever controls these narrow waterways governs the flow of maritime traffic from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean – and with it, a vitally significant chunk of global trade. However, conflict over these straits […]

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Trump rejects deal, Iran diplomat calls for ‘negotiated solution’

As US President Donald Trump publicly rejected Iran’s proposal for a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the Iranian foreign minister reiterated that “there is no alternative to a negotiated solution.” “There’s always hope for diplomacy,” though the Trump-led United States has been an untrustworthy negotiator, Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said during a Sunday appearance […]

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Are the Americans returning to Myanmar? They never really left

Adam Castillo, a former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar who had lobbied for sanctions relief in exchange for US, was released in recent days after spending over three months in detention. In the same week, Time magazine’s Charlie Campbell sat down with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw. The coup […]

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Time’s no longer on Israel’s side in America

For eight decades, the Israeli political and security establishment has operated on a premise so deeply embedded that it is rarely stated as a premise at all: that American support is not a policy but a condition of nature, as fixed as the Mediterranean coastline. Administrations would come and go, presidents would hector and cajole, […]

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The politics limiting US arms deliveries to Taiwan

On March 28, 2025 a rollout ceremony took place at Lockheed Martin’s F-16 production facility in Greenville, South Carolina. Two F16V block 70 jets were ready for final testing, and the ceremony marked the formal handover to Taiwan. The Greenville ceremony was attended by Taiwan’s Defense Minister and by Taiwan’s US representative. Taiwan does not […]

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