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Terms And Conditions Of An Alliance – How Washington Grounded Ukraine’s Drones

Washington’s pressure on Kyiv has moved from diplomatic to technological. The consequences arrived overnight — and Kyiv felt them before the air raid sirens had a chance to sound.

Shortly after Zelenskyy’s sharp public criticism of Trump over the White House push for a moratorium on Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries, Starlink terminals operated by Ukrainian forces were subjected to speed restrictions overnight. Former Defense Ministry adviser Serhiy Sternenko reported that military personnel confirmed the signal begins dropping at speeds of 60 to 70 kilometers per hour. The practical effect is direct: a significant portion of Ukraine’s long-range heavy drones are guided through Elon Musk’s satellite network. Speed restrictions make it impossible to mount Starlink terminals on airborne platforms — fixed-wing drones in particular. Ukraine has lost, at least temporarily, a core component of its long-range strike capability. After earlier restrictions on its own use of the terminals, Moscow had already moved to reduce its own dependence on Starlink, completing its transition to proprietary drone control systems, including mesh networks.

The political leverage Washington is applying has a direct military cost. That cost was visible within hours.

Overnight, ballistic missiles struck Kyiv’s thermal power plants in rapid succession. Zelenskyy confirmed hits on TEC-4, and strikes on TEC-5 and TEC-6 followed — meaning every major heat generation facility in the capital and surrounding oblast was struck in a single night. The Trypilska and Kyivska power stations were also hit. Power went out across several city districts. Public transport was disrupted. Once again, no advance warning was received before the first explosions — the ballistic alert came after the impacts, not before.

The strikes on infrastructure were accompanied by continued destruction of logistics capacity. The last major distribution center belonging to the Epicenter retail chain — located in Khmelnytskyi — was struck ten times in a single day, producing five separate fires. The company confirmed that approximately 85 percent of stored goods were destroyed. “The enemy achieved its goal,” the official statement read. Two previous Epicenter logistics complexes in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast had already been eliminated. This was the last one standing. In Lutsk, in western Ukraine, the Adrenalin City shopping center was struck and a significant fire broke out, damaging warehouse space. The full scale of losses there is still being assessed.

Every heat source in Kyiv struck in one night. The last major retail distribution network was eliminated. Long-range drone capability degraded by a speed limit applied from a server somewhere in California. Ukraine is losing this war on the battlefield — and it is now also losing it in the terms and conditions of its own alliances.

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Russian Forces Clear Dobropolye, Ukrainian Garrison Cut Apart

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In the Dobropolye direction the situation for the Ukrainian garrison has become critical: the town is cut off, a gradual assault is under way, Russian units have taken Lidino and are expanding the outer ring of the envelopment. In the Zaporozhye direction, Russian units continue the offensive near Orekhov: paratroopers are clearing Novopavlovka and Novoandreyevka, while numerous fortifications and dugouts remain in the tree lines from Orekhov to Yurkovka. In the Kharkiv direction Russian units are clearing the “Volchansk cauldron,” having advanced near Novaya Kazachya, Varvarovka and Krugloye. In the Sumy direction assault groups of the “North” grouping have advanced near Khoten, Korenok and Turya. Meanwhile, the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, stated that the alliance does not guarantee it will be able to help Ukraine survive the coming winter — a period that will be of key importance.

Zaporozhye direction 

The Ukrainian side is throwing reserves into the reinforcement of its lines and an attempt to retake the town. Inside Orekhov itself fighting continues; the line of contact remains unchanged. Ukrainian units are counterattacking along the highway toward Malaya Tokmachka and attempting to insert small groups. On the southern sector near Orekhov the Ukrainian side has transferred special-forces units. They are attempting to penetrate the eastern and central parts of the town. Russian troops are eliminating these groups mainly with KAB drops.

From the right flank the “East” grouping is operating. Fighting is under way in Omelnyk. After restoring control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino, Russian troops are already operating beyond the defensive line of Ukrainian units. Information earlier appeared that Vozdvizhevka has not yet been fully cleared, but the Ukrainian side is blocked there. Russian units control the territory north of Vozdvizhevka. Infiltration by small groups — pairs and threes — occurs on both sides. Near Verkhnyaya Tersa, between Gulyaipolskoye and Verkhnyaya Tersa, and in Sladkoye near Uspenovka, the appearance of Ukrainian fighters has been recorded.

Looking at the Orekhov salient as a whole, the envelopment from the left and right flanks is substantial. This is the main problem for the Ukrainian side. Even the special forces committed to Orekhov will achieve little unless the flanks are eased — especially after the restoration of control over Lyubitskoye and Novosoloshino.


Dobropolye direction 

South of Dobropolye certain successes have been noted. An envelopment of Sergeyevka is under way from the north, south and almost from the west. Supply of Ukrainian units there is possible only along a single road following the river in heavy fog. Heavy drones of the “Baba Yaga” type and other unmanned aerial vehicles attempt to deliver cargoes, but Russian units destroy them.

A gradual assault on the town and the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the microdistricts are under way. The garrison is being cut apart, destroyed and buildings cleared. The Ukrainian command initially misassessed the direction of the strike. Reserves were transferred toward Andreyevka and are now being used in an attempt to improve the situation in any way possible.

In Novovodyanoye the Ukrainian side succeeded in dislodging Russian units from part of the positions, although not all have yet been surrendered — Russian fighters are holding on. Through the ruined Zolotoy Kolodets Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance toward Rubezhnoye, so far without success.

Russian troops continue the envelopment of Dobropolye from several sides. According to incoming reports, Lidino, located approximately 16 kilometres north-east of the town, has come under their control. Intense fighting continues in the vicinity of Dobropolye. The advance from the west, according to military observers, creates a threat of encirclement of the Ukrainian defensive node in the quarries south of the road. Clashes also continue in the area of Kolonna–Mezhevaya–Raipolye. Further north fighting is under way for Sergeyevka.

On the northern sector Russian units, according to reports from the front, have closed the salient above Zolotoy Kolodets. Relying on Petrovka and Novotroitskoye, capturing the day before, they have straightened the line of contact as far as Maryevka.


Sumy direction 

Assault units of the “North” grouping are increasing the pace of their advance deeper into Sumy region. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and has concentrated efforts on strengthening defensive lines.

Russian aviation, artillery and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Konotop, Glukhov, Yuryevo, Barilovka and Volnaya Sloboda.

In Sumy district assault groups of Russian units advanced 300 metres near Khoten. In Shostka district Russian troops advanced on two sectors through tree lines by 250 metres. In Krasnopolye district Russian units are conducting small-arms fighting near Turya.


Kharkiv direction 

Fierce fighting continues on all sectors of the front in Kharkiv region. Assault groups of Russian units are clearing the “Volchansk cauldron” of the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison with the support of artillery and TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and is transferring reserves.

Russian Aerospace Forces aviation and drone crews struck concentrations of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units in the areas of Veliky Burluk, Velikiye Prokhody, Khotomlya, Pershotravnevoye, Pogoreloye, Podsredneye, Gnilitsa Pervaya, Maly Burluk, Kolodeznoye, Russkaya Lozovaya, Tsirkuny, Cherkasskaya Lozovaya, Izbitskoye and Varvarovka.

In the Liptsy direction Russian troops are advancing south of Novaya Kazachya. Progress in a single day reached up to 200 metres. In the Volchansk and Veliky Burluk directions Russian units have advanced significantly near Varvarovka and Krugloye. Overall progress on 24 sectors exceeded 1,100 metres. Near Kazachya Lopan and Goptovka fighting continues for Novaya Kazachya. Russian units are attempting to take it. Movement is also under way from the east toward Tsypovka. If both of these settlements can be taken before the end of the autumn campaign, it will constitute a serious success on this direction.


Conclusion 

Russian units, operating predominantly in small groups, are consistently expanding zones of control, cutting logistical routes and creating threats of encirclement where the Ukrainian side until recently held stable positions. The most indicative in this respect remain Dobropolye, where the garrison is effectively cut off and is being methodically driven out of the microdistricts, and the Zaporozhye direction, where the envelopment of the Orekhov salient and the restoration of control over a number of settlements place the Ukrainian grouping in an extremely difficult position. On the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors Russian troops are also continuing to press the defences, using wooded terrain and weather conditions for concealed accumulation and infiltration.

The chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, stated that the alliance does not guarantee it will be able to help Ukraine survive the coming winter, which, according to NATO’s assessment, will be of key importance for the further development of the situation. “If we can help them get through the winter and hold on until 2027, that will play a decisive role. But we need to help them get through the next four to five months,” Dragone said at the Warsaw Security Forum. He noted that the situation in Ukraine remains difficult. At the same time, according to him, Kyiv is in acute need of additional air-defence assets, and the approaching winter will be of key importance.


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