• Gen Zers are much less likely to have at least one kid than older generations at the same age.
• Not wanting kids, affordability problems, and medical challenges are plausible reasons.
• Having at least three kids is becoming less common across income percentiles, except in the top 1%.

Birth rates in the US have been falling for decades, but there's been an especially large drop in the likelihood of Gen Zers in their 20s having a kid compared with their older peers at the same age.

For 26-year-old Gen Zers, the likelihood of having at least one kid was 26%, down from 47% for millennials, 50% for Gen X, and 46% for boomers at that age. There were also differences between Gen Z and older generations in the probability of wanting another kid.

That's based on an analysis by a group of researchers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Julie Hotchkiss, a research economist at the Atlanta Fed, told Business Insider the analysis controls for education, partnership status, and some health conditions. The analysis uses National Survey of Family Growth data up to 2023.

From affordability challenges to concerns about the future, there are several likely reasons behind the lower probabilities. Hotchkiss said that a lower desire to have kids is one explanation.

Gen Zer Brooklen Farley said in an as-told-to Business Insider essay in 2023 that she decided during college she didn't want to have kids. Farley is worried about issues like the economy and climate crisis.

"Many people call us Zoomers, but honestly, a lot of us are doomers: We feel pessimistic about the future and don't want to subject our children to it," she said.

The research also notes that there's been a rise in medical challenges related to having kids. The researchers looked at impaired fecundity, or trouble becoming pregnant or carrying to term. The average probability of impaired fecundity at 26 was 18% for Gen Z compared to 10% for boomers at that age. The probabilities are higher for older ages — the likelihood for 40-year-old millennials was about 30%, higher than the 26% for Gen Xers at that age.

"If we want to talk about birth rates, we can't just talk about preferences," Hotchkiss said. "It's not just that darned younger generation not wanting, just being selfish and not wanting to have children. There's also really a very real medical issue that needs to be addressed."

Another problem is all the financial costs that come with being a parent. LendingTree found the cost of raising a kid for over 18 years adds up to $303,418 after tax exemptions and credits, or about $17,000 a year.

Affordability issues aren't just a Gen Z problem. Surrounded by a large family growing up, millennial Lizzie Lawson said in a Business Insider essay that she assumed she would also have a large family one day.

"When I was a kid in the early 2000s, my dad was an electrician and sole provider for our growing family of eight," Lawson said in a Business Insider essay, adding that her family got by with the help of coupon cutting and hand-me-downs. "Money was tight, but we also owned a house in a safe suburb, and my parents sent six kids to Catholic school from K-8."

Lawson, a college instructor whose husband is a physical therapist with $100,000 in student loans, said the economy is different from the one she grew up in.

"We can't afford to have one of us stay at home, and there aren't enough coupons in the world to cover the rising cost of day care," she said.

Having large families is rarer than in the past

Michael Konczal, vice president of policy and research at the Economic Security Project, said in his newsletter that across income percentiles, families with at least three kids have become less common since the 90s, except at the top 1%.

"A third kid isn't new for them; what's new is that it has become rarer for everyone else," he said. "Compared with the 1990s, families with three or more kids became less common overall and among the rest of the top 10%. The top 1%'s estimated share barely changed, though the uncertainty is substantial. Maybe all the stresses that made childbearing more difficult over the past 30 years just bounced right off the 1%?"

The US fertility rate has cooled to 1.6 births per woman, below the 2.1 replacement rate, which Hotchkiss said would translate to slower population growth. The Congressional Budget Office projects that just a few years from now, the number of births in the US could fall below the number of deaths, which could have implications in future decades.

"Over time, the negative net contribution of births and deaths increasingly offsets the positive contribution of net immigration, until population growth slows to zero in 2056. The population is projected to shrink thereafter," the CBO said.

• A version of this post appears in CMO Insider.
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Influencer marketing to baby boomers hits different — and not in the way brands intended.

Research from Morning Consult, conducted exclusively for Business Insider, reveals a stark generational divide in attitudes toward influencers. Boomers — people born between 1946 and 1964 — are distrustful of influencers, skeptical of their recommendations, and more likely to find their content "annoying."

In the survey of roughly 2,000 US adults conducted in September, 31% of boomers said they trust influencer recommendations at least somewhat, compared with 62% of Gen Z and 64% of millennials. Two in five (40%) boomers surveyed said they trust influencers less than they did a few years ago.

Sure, plenty of adults become set in their ways and harder to persuade as they age. But advertising pros said there's another factor that could help explain boomers' wariness of influencer marketing: brands themselves continue to overlook the older generation.

"Brands are terrified of taking any dollars away from speaking to young people," said Jennifer Meehan, an EVP at the communications agency Edelman.

That fear also extends into the creators they look to partner with.

Florian Dost, a marketing professor at Brandenburg University of Technology in Germany, interviewed influencer agencies and talent managers as part of a recent study. Some of the managers his team interviewed found that older influencers often drove higher campaign conversion rates, but brands rejected them.

"Agencies may know that," Dost said. "They certainly sometimes try to put it forth because they also see the numbers. But clients don't want to hear."

Boomers' distaste for influencers presents a challenge for CMOs.

The generation is a considerable consumer force, accounting for 42% of spending among affluent US households, according to Visa research from last year. With US marketers forecast to spend $40 billion on creator economy partnerships and ads this year, per Business Insider sister company EMARKETER, brands risk leaving a lucrative audience on the sidelines.

Getting boomers to click

Stewart Reynolds, 56, a Canadian comedy creator who posts under the name Brittlestar, said that older consumers rarely see themselves reflected in influencer marketing, which tends to favor young, attractive influencers.

Reynolds, a Gen Xer, said 45% of his audience is over 45 years old. And while he has landed plenty of brand deals with the likes of Yorkshire Tea, Yoplait, and Dairy Farmers of Ontario, he jokingly admits he's jealous of the opportunities that his son, Gregor Reynolds, another successful comedy creator, receives.

"He's getting brand deals and campaigns that I wouldn't get because I'm not young and fit," Reynolds said.

It's not just the brands, though.

Marketing insiders said some of the disconnect could be explained by influencers failing to create content that's relatable to an older audience. About a quarter (26%) of boomers surveyed by Morning Consult said influencer content made them feel annoyed — the highest proportion of any generation. Only 5% of boomers said it made them feel happy, versus 28% of Gen Z, 30% of millennials, and 13% of Gen X. Other generations said influencer content was most likely to leave them feeling "entertained," while boomers' top choice was "annoyed."

A separate study published earlier this year by Edelman, which surveyed more than 17,000 respondents worldwide, found that just 24% of boomers said they followed a content creator, compared with 86% of Gen Z, 77% of millennials, and 51% of Gen X.

The age of the influencers older generations see on their screens isn't the only factor at play.

"It's less about finding someone who's the same age and more about finding someone they can see something of themselves in," said Lucy Kruszynski, global head of brand at influencer marketing agency Buttermilk.

Shared interests and experiences can be more powerful than demographic similarities, she said. As boomers enter retirement, many have more time to rediscover hobbies and passions that took a backseat during their working lives. Brands could tap into those interests by partnering with creators who share their enthusiasm for pursuits like music, art, or home improvement.

Some of the most successful boomer creators have scored deals that lean into these passion points. The boomer weightlifting influencer Marlene "Granny Guns" Flowers has more than 4.5 million followers across her social platforms and has collaborated with brands such as YoungLA and Ryse Supps. Barbara Costello, who is in her 70s and known as "Brunch with Babs," has more than 9 million followers and has scored partnerships with brands that range from the furniture brand Birch Lane to Nellie's Eggs and Walmart.

Brands may also have to exercise patience when trying to convert older consumers. The Morning Consult survey found that 43% of boomers said they had never purchased a product based on an influencer's recommendation.

For brands accustomed to measuring influencer marketing success in clicks and immediate sales, that could require a rethink. Kruszynski said some boomers follow creators for months, sometimes up to a year, before feeling comfortable purchasing something they've recommended.

"Even though there is absolutely a level of annoyance and a lack of trust, I don't think that baby boomers are immune to influencer marketing," Kruszynski said. "Brands need to think about how creators can build credibility through consistent content over time."

America’s elders need more places to live, but even in liberal enclaves that recognize the problem, developers are facing fierce foes: America’s elders. Make it make sense! Charley Locke reports from her hometown of Oakland, California, where boomers are organizing against two proposals that would add 618 market-rate residential units to the city’s senior housing stock:

Many in the crowd had been marching against governmental and corporate overreach for half a century: against the Vietnam draft and the invasion of Iraq; against Wall Street; against police brutality. They’re part of a generational force that’s antiestablishment and suspicious of power. But in this fight, it wasn’t so clear who the establishment was or who had the power. Were these righteous middle-class activists fending off greedy developers who would charge high rents, or were they wealthy seniors prioritizing neighborhood character over ameliorating the housing crisis? Were they once again David, or had they become Goliath?