At least 30 people have been killed and 18 injured after Russian forces struck two passenger buses in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, on Thursday morning, according to updated figures released by Ukrainian prosecutors. The attack comes amid continuing Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Russian forces attacked Kramatorsk, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, at approximately 10am local time on 8 October, hitting an area where two scheduled passenger buses were carrying civilians.

The Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office initially reported 12 fatalities and 14 injuries. In a subsequent update, prosecutors raised the death toll to 30 and the number of injured to 18.

The attack was also confirmed by the Kramatorsk City Council and Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration.

According to preliminary findings from Ukrainian investigators, Russian forces may have used a UMPB D-30SN guided aerial munition. The precise weapon and circumstances of the attack remain under investigation.

Passenger buses caught in Russian bombardment

The two buses were operating regular passenger services when the strike occurred. Ukrainian authorities said passengers were on board, although detailed information about the victims, including their ages and identities, has not yet been released.

Photographs published by the regional prosecutor’s office show the aftermath of the attack, including severely damaged passenger vehicles. Emergency personnel and law enforcement officers were dispatched to assist the wounded, recover victims and document evidence.

The strike raises questions about the selection of the target and precautions taken to protect civilians. Under international humanitarian law, civilian vehicles and their passengers are protected from deliberate attack unless a vehicle becomes a military objective under the applicable legal rules.

The circumstances of Thursday’s strike, including whether the buses were directly targeted or struck during an attack on another location, have not yet been independently established.

Kramatorsk under increasing pressure

Kramatorsk remains one of Ukraine’s principal administrative and logistical centres in the part of Donetsk region still controlled by Kyiv. The city has faced repeated Russian bombardments as Moscow continues its military campaign to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in Donetsk.

Its transport infrastructure serves residents who have remained despite years of fighting, including those travelling between neighbouring communities and those attempting to leave the region.

Regional officials have repeatedly urged residents to evacuate to safer areas of Ukraine as Russian bombardments continue. However, civilians remain in Kramatorsk and surrounding settlements, where everyday services, including public transport, continue to operate despite the danger.

Guided bombs and civilian protection

Russian forces have used guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian-controlled settlements near the front line. Such weapons can be released from aircraft at distances that reduce Russian pilots’ exposure to Ukrainian air defences.

The UMPB D-30SN, provisionally identified in the Kramatorsk attack, is a guided munition designed to reach targets beyond the immediate position of the launching aircraft. Its suspected use against an area containing occupied passenger buses will form part of the investigation.

Investigators will need to establish the intended target, the weapon used and the information available to those who planned and carried out the strike. These findings are relevant to determining whether the attack violated the laws of war.

Investigators examine civilian deaths

The Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office is collecting evidence concerning the bombardment, including the type of munition used and the circumstances in which the buses were struck.

Establishing whether the vehicles were deliberately targeted, or whether the attack resulted from an indiscriminate or disproportionate strike, will be central to any assessment under international humanitarian law.

The identities of the victims and the full extent of the damage have yet to be established publicly. As of the updated figures issued by Ukrainian prosecutors on 8 October, 30 people were reported killed and 18 injured.

Moscow has again told foreign diplomats to leave Kyiv before further Russian strikes. The embassies have stayed. The episode exposes a broader Russian objective: turning military pressure on Ukraine’s capital into political and diplomatic retreat by its Western partners.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry renewed its warning to foreign diplomats and other foreign nationals on 3 October, urging them to leave Kyiv and saying Russian forces would continue large-scale strikes against targets in the Ukrainian capital and elsewhere. The warning said those who remained were exposing themselves to “mortal danger”, while Moscow sought to place responsibility for any consequences on the individuals and governments choosing to remain.

The military threat behind that warning is not theoretical. Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv have intensified, striking transport infrastructure, energy facilities and residential districts. EU Today has documented a succession of such attacks, including a September missile and drone barrage that killed three people and damaged residential and public buildings and a later jet-powered drone strike on the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv. Air alerts and attacks on the capital are now a routine part of the security environment in which foreign missions operate.

The significance of Moscow’s latest statement, however, goes beyond the question of physical safety. By telling foreign governments that their diplomats should leave and suggesting that those who stay must accept the consequences, Russia is attempting to change the political calculation surrounding Kyiv. If Western states began moving their embassies to Lviv or across the border into Poland, Moscow would have achieved something that continued military pressure has so far failed to deliver: a visible reduction in the international diplomatic presence in the Ukrainian capital.

That has not happened. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry says it has received no request or notification from a foreign diplomatic mission indicating that it intends to relocate. Reports that some Western governments have considered contingency arrangements appear to concern emergency planning rather than decisions to withdraw, which is hardly surprising for embassies operating in a capital subjected to repeated missile and drone attacks. The distinction is important because preparing evacuation options is standard risk management; implementing them would be a political signal.

The European Union has gone further than simply denying evacuation plans. EU Ambassador Katarína Mathernová said that the EU Delegation, the EU Advisory Mission and all 25 EU member states maintaining embassies in Kyiv would remain in the capital. Her response was deliberately public, making clear that the Russian warning would not alter the diplomatic footprint of the EU or its member states in Ukraine.

Moscow has tried this before. In May, Russia issued a similar warning to diplomats and foreign nationals, prompting Brussels to summon the Russian chargé d’affaires. EU Today reported at the time that European officials viewed the warning as a threat against the foreign diplomatic community in Kyiv. Mathernová subsequently said that the EU would remain in Kyiv despite Russia’s renewed warnings, describing the pressure as an attempt to generate fear and isolate Ukraine.

The October warning has produced much the same result. One day later, Chancellor Friedrich Merz travelled to Kyiv, accompanied by Economy Minister Katherina Reiche and a German business delegation. His arrival was particularly difficult to reconcile with suggestions that European governments were preparing to abandon the capital. EU Today reported that the visit brought more than €1.3 billion in new German defence and energy commitments, while the German government presented the trip as a demonstration of continuing support for Ukraine.

Washington has taken a similar position. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States would make its own assessment of whether it was safe for American diplomats to remain in Kyiv and noted that Russia had been issuing such warnings for months. The US embassy has continued operating, while the State Department has maintained its highest-level travel warning for American citizens because of the continuing war. That distinction — between advising private citizens not to travel and maintaining an official diplomatic presence — reflects the different responsibilities involved.

There is also a legal dimension to Moscow’s attempt to shift responsibility. Russian statements create the impression that once diplomats have been warned, the consequences of any subsequent attack fall on those who chose to stay. International law does not support such an interpretation. The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations establishes the inviolability of diplomatic premises and personnel, although the immediate obligation to protect foreign missions rests principally with Ukraine as the receiving state.

Russia’s conduct of military operations is governed primarily by international humanitarian law. Diplomats remain civilians, while diplomatic buildings remain civilian objects unless they are being used in circumstances that would make them military objectives. Warnings can form part of an attacker’s obligation to take precautions, but they do not transfer legal responsibility to civilians who remain in place. The International Committee of the Red Cross makes clear that civilians who stay after an advance warning continue to enjoy protection, and an attacking force must still comply with the rules of distinction, proportionality and precautions.

That legal point is relevant because the wording used by Moscow appears designed to establish a different political narrative. Russia can warn foreign governments that further strikes are coming, but such warnings cannot provide advance immunity for the way those attacks are conducted. Nor do they relieve Russia of responsibility if attacks unlawfully damage civilian or diplomatic property.

The continued presence of embassies in Kyiv also has practical significance for Ukraine. Foreign missions give governments direct access to Ukrainian institutions and their own assessment of political, military and economic conditions on the ground. Their diplomats meet ministers, military officials, civil society representatives and businesses, reducing governments’ dependence on second-hand reporting and allowing them to judge developments for themselves.

Relocating those missions would therefore have consequences beyond symbolism. Diplomatic relations could continue from Lviv, Warsaw or elsewhere, but Moscow would inevitably portray any large-scale withdrawal from Kyiv as evidence that foreign governments no longer regarded the Ukrainian capital as sustainable as a diplomatic centre. That helps explain why European governments have answered the latest warning so publicly and why maintaining a visible presence has itself become part of the political response.

Russia has increasingly sought to combine physical attacks with wider political effects. Its missile and drone campaign places pressure on Ukraine’s electricity system, transport network, air defences and civilian population. The warnings to foreign missions extend the same logic to Ukraine’s international relationships: increase the perceived cost of remaining in Kyiv and encourage foreign governments to reduce their presence.

So far, that strategy has not produced the intended result. The EU says all of its embassies are staying, Germany’s Chancellor travelled to Kyiv immediately after the warning and Washington has made clear that it will take its own decisions about the security of its mission. Russia can make the Ukrainian capital more dangerous, but it has not persuaded Ukraine’s principal partners to treat Kyiv as a city they must leave.

A Russian jet-powered drone struck the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv during the working day. Hours earlier, the Kremlin said Ukraine was now “paying the price” for its attacks on Russia. The combination provides a stark indication of how Moscow is framing its continuing air campaign.

Russia did not simply launch another attack on Kyiv on Monday. A jet-powered drone hit a building of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in the centre of the capital while people were at work inside.

At least one person was confirmed killed at the site, while Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 19 people were injured across the capital during the day’s attacks. Fire engulfed part of the Academy building as rescuers used ladders to reach people trapped inside. Elsewhere in Kyiv, a pharmaceutical company, petrol stations and a medical facility were hit. In Dnipro, three people were killed when a drone struck a business centre during working hours.

The physical destruction was accompanied by unusually explicit language from Moscow.

Asked on Monday how recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia had affected prospects for negotiations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied: “Ukraine will have to pay a price for the actions that have taken place in recent months. This is what is happening now.”

The statement was not made by a television propagandist or military blogger. It came from Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, in response to a question about Moscow’s position on negotiations.

That places the latest attacks in a different context. Russia is not presenting its military campaign solely in terms of destroying Ukrainian military capability. The Kremlin is publicly describing what is happening as a price Ukraine must pay.

The timing is difficult to separate from the scenes in central Kyiv.

Russia’s Defence Ministry later said its forces had struck fuel and telecommunications infrastructure in Kyiv, several data centres, cargo vessels bound for Ukrainian ports and a ship-repair facility. It did not identify the National Academy of Sciences as a military target. Reuters said it could not independently verify the ministry’s claims.

Nor does the fact that the Academy was hit, by itself, establish whether Russian commanders specifically selected that building as the intended target. That requires evidence about targeting orders which is not presently available.

But the legal difference between military and civilian objects is straightforward.

International humanitarian law permits attacks on military objectives. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, an object must make an effective contribution to military action and its destruction must offer a definite military advantage in the circumstances at the time. Civilian objects may not be directly attacked.

A defence factory can plainly meet that test. Fuel infrastructure can become a military objective depending on how it is being used, although it does not automatically lose civilian protection merely because it contributes to the wider economy.

Ukraine has increasingly attacked Russian oil installations and defence production. EU Today reported last week on a large Ukrainian drone operation against Moscow that struck the Kapotnya oil refinery and a logistics complex, part of Kyiv’s campaign against infrastructure it says sustains Russia’s war effort.

A national scientific academy starts from a very different position. Unless a specific military use can be demonstrated, it is a civilian institution.

This is why Peskov’s choice of words deserves particular attention.

He did not say merely that Russia was attempting to destroy Ukrainian weapons, command centres or military production. He spoke of Ukraine having to “pay a price”. The statement was made while explaining the consequences of Ukrainian actions for Moscow’s approach to negotiations.

That is the language of coercion.

It also comes as Russia changes the technology used in its campaign against Ukrainian cities. Russian forces have increasingly deployed faster jet-powered drones against Kyiv and other urban centres. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the weekend that Ukraine was intercepting only slightly more than half of these weapons — substantially below the interception rate achieved against older propeller-driven drones.

EU Today has previously examined the pressure these faster Russian drones are placing on Ukraine’s air-defence network. Their speed reduces reaction times and makes attacks on major cities more difficult to stop.

The result is increasingly visible away from the front.

Earlier this month, another Russian attack on Kyiv damaged residential buildings, a school, medical facilities and commercial premises, killing three people. That September 8 barrage followed a brief pause associated with diplomatic activity.

Monday’s strike on the Academy adds another element. The institution is not simply another office block. The National Academy of Sciences is one of Ukraine’s central scientific institutions and has existed, in different forms, since 1918. A burning Academy building in the centre of Kyiv therefore inevitably carries significance beyond the physical damage itself, irrespective of whether symbolism formed part of the targeting decision.

International humanitarian law also prohibits acts or threats of violence whose primary purpose is to spread terror among the civilian population. Establishing such a purpose in any individual attack requires evidence. The broader prohibition, however, is important when a government publicly couples continuing strikes with language about making the population of an adversary state “pay a price”.

This is also relevant to European governments assessing repeated Russian references to negotiations.

Moscow’s military campaign and its diplomatic language cannot be treated as entirely separate tracks when the Kremlin itself connects them. Peskov was asked about peace negotiations and answered by describing the price Ukraine was being made to pay.

The question raised by Monday’s events is therefore larger than why one drone hit one building in Kyiv.

It is what Russia expects continuing attacks on Ukrainian cities, businesses and civilian institutions to achieve politically.

If their function is partly to raise the cost of resistance until Ukraine accepts terms it would otherwise reject, then the air campaign is also an instrument of negotiation by coercion.

The burning Academy of Sciences provides an unusually stark image of what that policy looks like on the ground.