En cette rentrée morose pour l'Union européenne, nous recevons François-Xavier Bellamy, vice-président des Républicains, député européen au Parti populaire européen (PPE) et ancien professeur agrégé de philosophie. Il a mené la liste Les Républicains aux élections européennes où il a été réélu en 2024, avec 7,2 % des voix (soit six députés en tout). En cette rentrée, il revient sur les grandes crises de l'été, notamment les menaces russes, les enjeux écologiques ou encore l'arrivée de dizaines de milliers de migrants dans l'enclave de Ceuta.
Branle-bas de combat dans la diplomatie européenne. Une réunion informelle des ministres des Affaires étrangères, dès la semaine de rentrée, entend mettre les 27 en ordre de bataille sur les grands dossiers internationaux. Mais la diplomatie européenne se pose des questions existentielles : à quoi sert-elle vraiment ? Pourquoi semble-t-elle si inaudible ? L'autorité de l'Estonienne Kaja Kallas – la Haute représentante de l'Union européenne (UE) pour les Affaires étrangères – est contestée. Le couple franco-allemand et d'autres acteurs réclament une réforme radicale au nom de l'efficacité.
Branle-bas de combat dans la diplomatie européenne. Une réunion informelle des ministres des Affaires étrangères, dès la semaine de rentrée, entend mettre les 27 en ordre de bataille sur les grands dossiers internationaux. Mais la diplomatie européenne se pose des questions existentielles : à quoi sert-elle vraiment ? Pourquoi semble-t-elle si inaudible ? L'autorité de l'Estonienne Kaja Kallas – la Haute représentante de l'Union européenne (UE) pour les Affaires étrangères – est contestée. Le couple franco-allemand et d'autres acteurs réclament une réforme radicale au nom de l'efficacité.
Instructor at the training ground of the Unmanned Systems Troops (UAVS). | picture alliance / Picvario Media | Sergey Elagin
Europe is rearming. Defence budgets are rising, factories are expanding, and new EU instruments are pouring money into ammunition production and joint procurement. But money is only part of Europe’s defence problems. The main constraint is that its systems remain slow, fragmented and poorly suited to an age when military technology can change in months rather than decades.
Three transformations are hitting the continent at once. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought back large-scale war to European soil. Washington’s growing focus on the Indo-Pacific, its renewed interest in Greenland and its push to move NATO from “burden sharing” towards what might be called “burden shifting” mean that Europe will have to provide not only more money for the alliance but also a larger share of its combat power. At the same time, technology is changing warfare faster than traditional procurement systems can keep up.
At present, procurement systems work as follows: a military identifies a requirement; officials draw up specifications; companies compete for a contract and, years later, a system enters service. The problem is that, by then, the technologies shaping the battlefield may have changed dramatically. Promising technologies can become obsolete or fall by the wayside before they ever reach soldiers.
Ukraine has demonstrated a different model. Operational problems generate ideas; engineers turn them into prototypes; soldiers test them; manufacturers improve and scale them; battlefield experience feeds into the next iteration. Technology can also work in the other direction: new capabilities, such as cheap drones, can create tactics that planners had not previously considered.
The real measure of defence-industrial success should not be how many platforms roll off the line, but how fast capability can be imagined, built, tested, industrialised, fielded and adapted again
Europe needs to make this cycle permanent. I propose a model called Adaptive Defence Industrial Ecosystem Management, or ADIEM. The principle is for governments to move from being regulators and buyers to orchestrators of a defence ecosystem that links governments, armed forces, defence and tech companies, start-ups, universities and investors in a continuous loop. The real measure of defence-industrial success should not be how many platforms roll off the line, but how fast capability can be imagined, built, tested, industrialised, fielded and adapted again.
Industrial resilience and human capital are central to this model. Ukraine has shown that sustained operations depend on raw materials, reliable energy, resilient logistics and skilled labour quite as much as on the platforms themselves. And because digital capability now depends as much on software and data engineering as on heavy manufacturing, Europe’s defence sector competes directly with the commercial tech industry for the same scarce talent. This makes the appeal of a defence career a strategic question.
How to make ADIEM work
Reform defence governance. Create permanent structures that bring together military planning, industrial policy, innovation and procurement around shared capability goals. Give them room to depart from standard rules where those rules are the obstacle.
Start with battlefield problems. Build capabilities around what armed forces need to achieve. It works in reverse too: a new system needs a concept of operations written for it before it is bought at scale. Treat these as living documents that evolve with experimentation and real-world lessons.
Make procurement faster and more flexible. Use a hybrid procurement method. While central procurement agencies buy major systems, individual units are allowed to meet certain urgent combat needs. Alongside that, break large procurements into smaller contracts with incremental delivery, allow continuous software updates, use open architecture and speed up certification.
Build a genuine innovation ecosystem. Give start-ups, universities and public labs clear routes to deployment. Reward experimentation and operational relevance over novelty for its own sake.
Achieve affordable mass. Create dedicated programmes for weapon systems that are effective enough, cheap enough to buy in large numbers and simple enough to replace quickly. These include drones, autonomous vehicles, loitering munitions, low-cost intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems and electronic warfare.
Invest in human capital. Build a long-term pipeline of software engineers, AI specialists, systems engineers and skilled production workers, and change how the sector is perceived—presenting it as a high-technology field, not just a traditional military one.
Institutionalise experimentation. Set up permanent centres where soldiers, engineers, researchers and industry jointly evaluate new operational concepts and technologies. Test continuously rather than only in the run-up to a procurement decision.
Develop digital defence infrastructure. Invest in a sovereign defence cloud, secure data architecture, digital twins and common digital standards.
Governments also need to reform the institutions through which capability is developed, not just the funding lines that feed them. And while Europe has much of what it needs—sophisticated armed forces, world-class manufacturers, strong universities and a growing defence-tech sector—it still lacks a system capable of connecting them quickly enough. That is the purpose of ADIEM: to connect these actors in a continuously adapting ecosystem, with governments acting as orchestrators rather than simply regulators and buyers.
Minorities say they fear a rise in anti-Roma rhetoric following predictions of Germany’s AfD surge in Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt election.
As Germany heads into a closely watched state election in Saxony-Anhalt this Sunday, 6 September, with the AfD polling above 40% and potentially within reach of an outright majority, right groups say they are “growing concerns over what its increasing electoral strength means for minorities and Germany’s and the EU’s democratic norms and values.”
Anna Mirga-Kruszelnicka, Executive Director of the Berlin-based European Roma Institute for Arts and Culture, looks ahead to the election.
She told this site: “For Roma and Sinti communities in particular, the election comes against a backdrop of increasingly visible anti-Roma racism.”
The Central Council of German Sinti and Roma described the situation “as a cynical example of a far-right party once again targeting Sinti and Roma.”
The incident, says the institute, comes amid "growing evidence of antigypsyism in Germany."
The Institute says that MIA, the country’s reporting and information centre documenting anti-Roma racism, reportedly recorded1,193 cases of stereotyping and disparaging remarks targeting Roma and Sinti in 2025, as well as 55 physical attacks, up from the previous year, and eight cases of extreme violence.
The institute says Roma experts warn of a changing political landscape in Germany and the growing strength of the far right.
They note that “the normalisation of nationalist, racist and anti-minority rhetoric is reshaping political discourse, including the increasing use of anti-Roma stereotypes.”
Mirga-Kruszelnicka said: “Over 80 years since more than 4,300 Roma and Sinti were murdered during the liquidation of the “Zigeunerlager” at the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp, a far-right party that openly stigmatises and singles out Roma citizens is yet again on the rise in Germany. In April 2026, AfD politician Enxhi Seli-Zacharias led party colleagues through a German city, handing brooms to residents she took to be Sinti and Roma and filming them as they swept the pavement, telling one woman: “Germans have had enough—look what this looks like.”
As the EU prepares its next €2 trillion budget, the institute says experts are also questioning whether Roma communities are "being adequately accounted" for in how European funding is tracked and measured with”, says the insititute, “antigypsyism not mentioned once in the Performance Framework Regulation".
“Fascism is never simply a chapter in history books. It begins with words, stereotypes, indifference and the gradual erosion of democratic values. Honouring those who were murdered is not enough. We must also recognise how quickly democratic societies can unravel when prejudice, dehumanisation and political extremism become accepted as ordinary," concluded Mirga-Kruszelnicka.
Nous vous proposons une "opération vérité" sur les grands textes adoptés et les positionnements politiques, à méditer pendant les congés d'été ! L’année 2026 est particulièrement chargée en grands textes législatifs - près de 300 ont été votés - et, phénomène nouveau, les majorités sont très fluctuantes au Parlement de Strasbourg, en fonction des sujets.
Dans cet épisode d'Aux 4 coins de l’Europe, Caroline de Camaret embarque les téléspectateurs pour un voyage à travers le Parlement européen afin de décrypter l’actualité qui secoue Bruxelles, capitale européenne. L'épisode vous emmène au plus près de ceux qui font l’Europe d’aujourd’hui, tout en traquant la désinformation et les débats qui traversent l’hémicycle.
Dans cette édition spéciale d'Aux 4 coins de l’Europe, Caroline de Camaret embarque les téléspectateurs pour un voyage inédit mettant en avant la créativité et la jeunesse européenne… Car la voix de tous ces jeunes compte !
L’Union européenne devrait bientôt permettre à ses États membres de créer des "hubs de retour" dans des pays tiers, qui auront pour but d’accueillir les étrangers en situation irrégulière expulsés du territoire européen. Le texte est considéré comme une avancée en matière de politique migratoire par la droite et l’extrême droite, et comme un recul pour les droits humains par la gauche. Explications.
À l'occasion de la Journée de l'Europe, célébrée place de la République, à Paris, le samedi 9 mai, nous vous proposons un grand débat public et télévisé, réalisé en partenariat avec le bureau en France du Parlement européen, la représentation de la Commission européenne et la mairie de Paris.
À l'occasion de la Journée de l'Europe célébrée place de la République, à Paris, samedi 9 mai, nous vous proposons un grand débat public et télévisé, réalisé en partenariat avec le bureau en France du Parlement européen, la représentation de la Commission européenne et la mairie de Paris.
What happens if your economy is suddenly in crisis, Brussels offers help with strings attached—and Turkey, China or Russia can move faster? What if your country delivers every reform the EU asks for, only for a member state to block the next step anyway? And after years of waiting, would voters still choose to join?
In this special bonus episode, The Neighbourhood goes live from Lisbon for an EU enlargement game. Jessica Hendrick brings together RE-ENGAGE experts representing six EU candidate countries and throws a series of fictional—but very plausible—political and economic shocks at them inspired by real headlines: Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, Ireland’s EU presidency push on enlargement, Iceland’s referendum, Germany’s regional elections and the upcoming 2026 Enlargement Package. Drawing on three years of surveys, interviews and crisis simulations, each expert has to answer for their country.
Playing for each country:
Albania:Morten Bøås, research professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), representing RE-ENGAGE’s Albanian partners at the European University of Tirana
Bosnia and Herzegovina:Damir Kapidžić, director of the Institute for Social Science Research at the University of Sarajevo
Georgia:Ketevan Bolkvadze, senior lecturer in the department of political science at Lund University, originally from Georgia
Moldova:Mathilde T. E. Giske, research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), representing RE-ENGAGE’s Moldovan partners at Moldova State University
Serbia:Luka Filipović, research associate at the Institute for Contemporary History in Serbia
Ukraine:Roman Petrov, president of the Ukrainian European Studies Association
The result is part enlargement simulation, part policy conversation and part game night. The experts bargain over a fictional €100 million EU cheque, decide whether the EU can compete with faster offers from other powers, test how easily disinformation could exploit frustration with enlargement, and imagine what would happen if EU membership was finally put to a public vote. Along the way, Serbia proposes keeping its relationship with Brussels “casual”, Bosnia finds a creative use for €100 million, and Ukraine calls for Hungarian “Varangians” when backsliding strikes.
When a crisis hits, does speed matter more than values? Can “Europe never wanted you anyway” become a winning political message? And if a country finally joins the EU, what stops democracy from sliding backwards once the prize of membership is secured?
It’s one of the most anticipated arts events in the UK and the starting pistol is set to sound on Herefordshire Art Week.
h.Art 2026, as it is affectionately called, runs from 5 to 13 September and is hailed as a “celebration of local creativity”.
The event takes place right across Herefordshire and its neighbouring borders where hundreds of artists will open their doors to share their work.
h.Art is widely seen as being special for art lovers,offering personal encounters with some of the UK’s finest artists and makers in the intimacy of their own homes and studios.
It is a chance to discover new work and buy or commission artwork, all direct with the artists.
h.Art was founded in 2002 as part of Herefordshire Council’s ‘Creative Industry’ programme, with the vision to offer “personal life enhancing experiences through art, whilst stimulating a vibrant local economy.”
It celebrates its 25th anniversary next year and has recently been taken over by a new organiser.
A spokesman said, “It’s a chance to gain a rare insight into the creative lives of our artists and craft-makers. You’ll uncover amazing art in atmospheric and unexpected locations as well as learn new skills through hands-on workshops and demos.”
Among those taking part for this year’s edition are Canwood Gallery and Eastnor Pottery.
Eastnor Pottery and “the Flying Potter”, located near Ledbury, is recognised as one of the country’s leading studios for potter’s wheel courses, classes and educational experiences.
Jon Williams shares Eastnor Pottery with his wife and fellow potter, Sarah Monk.
In an interview with the event organisers, Jon, who makes ceramic sculpture and decorative items, explained, “Although our ceramic work is very different to each other (chalk and cheese!) we collaborate on our courses, classes and experiences, taking it in turns to lead and support the sessions.”
Asked to describe his work, he added, “Through skilful facilitation and a love of clay and people in equal measure, I travel all over the West Midlands and beyond exploring and developing creativity in others.
“I regularly work in early year’s settings, schools, libraries, art galleries and museums, encouraging people to play and express themselves in clay.
“My approach has its roots in Reggio Emilia philosophy. Reggio is a pedagogy based upon self-directed, experiential learning.
“Children, young people and adults are offered a range of tools, materials and environments and encouraged to develop their own, totally unique way of working. When I get opportunity to produce my own ceramics, I approach my making in a similar fashion to my social engagement work. The concept of play is at the centre of everything. Nearly all my work starts its life on the potter’s wheel.”
He says it means “everything” to be an artist, adding, “It is being independent, resourceful, resilient and creative whilst having a shed load of fun. I enjoy partnership working with individuals and organisations and am always up for a collaboration.”
Eastnor also gives the public a chance to take part in various pottery workshops and experiences, including beginner’s classes, day courses, and weekend courses. It is a chance to learn to use a potter’s wheel under expert guidance, with all materials included. They also offer clay modelling sessions and a ‘Flying Potter’ service that can take the workshop to an individual’s own location.
Jon adds, “It’s always really hard to describe what I do, as my creative practice is so varied and wide-ranging. I am The Flying Potter, I am a maker, a studio potter, a ceramic artist, educationalist and facilitator.”
Artist Andrew Findlay, also taking part in the week-long event, is based at The Forge Eastnor, just 100m from the pottery.
Another participating in Art Week is Canwood Gallery which is nestled in the serene Herefordshire countryside.
It is a contemporary art gallery and sculpture park dedicated to providing an “art oasis.”
Set across ten acres of landscape, the site includes two indoor gallery spaces and an expansive sculpture park, alongside an on site café.
It showcases a diverse range of work by internationally recognised alongside emerging and local artists, offering a great opportunity to experience and purchase art in a tranquil rural setting. The gallery is free to enter, with free on site parking.
Also participating are Old Chapel Gallery, Wobage and Sorrel & Sage (full details available via the links below).
The Art Week is expected to attract people from both the UK and abroad and one excellent way of finding out more about the event and much else in the county is via the Eat Sleep Live Herefordshire, the leading independent destination marketing company for the county.
Its supports not only Herefordshire’s food and drink businesses, accommodation providers, activities, leisure venues and pursuits and events but promotes the county’s crafts, creatives and artisans.
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to unpack a volatile new chapter in the confrontation between the United States and Iran. After months of managed escalation, military strikes have resumed and President Donald Trump has launched an ambitious new sanctions package, dubbed an economic “D-Day”, aimed at squeezing Tehran into submission.
Ellie argues that Washington has returned to a familiar strategy of maximum pressure, betting that unprecedented economic isolation and a blockade of Iranian exports will either force the regime to make major concessions or trigger domestic unrest. But Tehran appears determined to hold out, relying on sanctions-evasion networks, regional diplomacy and the belief that the US will struggle to sustain its campaign over the long term. As both sides continue limited military operations while keeping channels for negotiation open, the prospect of a comprehensive deal remains elusive.
The conversation also explores the domestic pressures facing Iran’s leadership, from a shrinking economy and growing public dissatisfaction to the threat of renewed nationwide protests. Mark and Ellie examine whether economic hardship could destabilise the regime, why Iranian leaders remain sceptical of American commitments and how internal politics in both Washington and Tehran are shaping the path ahead.
Finally, they discuss the wider regional and European implications of the conflict. How are Gulf states positioning themselves between the US and Iran? What risks does the confrontation pose to global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz? And can European governments still play a meaningful diplomatic role as tensions rise and fears grow that the Iran conflict could become increasingly entangled with the war in Ukraine?
This podcast episode was recorded on September 3rd 2026.
The hottest summer ever recorded, rivers and lakes drier than ever, and wildfires burning thousands of hectares of nature to the ground – Europe is experiencing it all.
The Executive Director of the European Environment Agency (EEA), Leena Ylä-Mononen, said that climate adaptation is no longer optional as the impact of climate change is already visible. “Severe droughts have disrupted agriculture, our transport, and even energy infrastructure. And we have seen intense heatwaves across many parts of Europe that have had huge impacts on the infrastructure, health and well-being of people,” she told the European Newsroom (enr) in an interview.
She urged European politicians to look beyond the next election and plan for the climate risks already foreseeable over the next decade. “This kind of short-termism is not going to help us,” she said.
Ylä-Mononen warned that these extreme conditions could fundamentally change agriculture in parts of Europe, with some crops no longer viable in the driest areas of the Mediterranean.
She also underlined that accelerating the uptake of renewables is key to reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and limiting Europe’s exposure to volatile energy prices. The EEA chief pointed to the need for greater flexibility and storage capacity to help protect households and businesses when prices rise.
According to the EEA, gas price fluctuations in early 2026 cost the EU €13 billion by mid-April, while renewable energy generated €29 billion in consumer savings, highlighting its role in stabilising the energy system.
The interview was conducted by journalists from European Newsroom partner agencies dpa Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH and Czech News Agency (CTK) on behalf of the entire network.
Since June 2026, Brussels’ bustline Place Noord has made a space available to three local associations led by young people to develop their activities, projects, and events.
The associations are primarily from the Quartier Nord (spanning the City of Brussels and Schaerbeek).
The space is now gradually becoming a hub for meeting, creativity, and initiative for the neighbourhood's youth.
This Thursday, 3 September, the venue is opening its doors to the public for an evening to mark what is called 'Residents Day'.
The initiative stemmed directly from a request made by young people.
In May, Laila, Marouane, and Rashad came to meet the Place Noord team one by one to ask if a space could be made available to them—both for their weekly activities and for organizing their own events.
Pauline Omnes, programmer at Place Noord, told this site on Wednesday: "I have been working in the Quartier Nord for several years, collaborating closely with local community groups.
“The idea was for Place Noord to also serve projects led by the neighbourhood's youth, with support from those who have been working here longer.
“The goal is not only to provide them with a venue but also to connect them with others so they can grow their projects.
“On one hand, Play Label organizes events that generate the funds needed to make the space available for free, thereby supporting these local initiatives."
Since their arrival, the three associations have been gradually settling into the premises. Young people work on their projects there, but also come to study, play board games, organize movie nights, or simply socialize.
The presence of the three associations also creates a collective dynamic that extends beyond their individual activities, said Omnes.
"Young people share ideas, skills, and projects, and are beginning to build a shared life within the space."
Brussels/Copenhage (enr) – Increasing the uptake of renewable energy is key to safeguarding Europe’s energy security as the EU seeks to heavily reduce CO2 emissions and become independent from imported fossil fuels, European Environment Agency (EEA) Executive Director Leena Ylä-Mononen said.
“Shifting to the sustainable future by improving our circular economy, uptake of renewables, improving energy efficiency – all this is central to Europe’s push to reduce our dependency and reliance on energy imports, fossil fuels, and imports of natural resources,” she said in an interview with the European Newsroom (enr) published Tuesday.
Following a summer leaving Europe scarred by heatwaves, drought and wildfires across the continent, the EEA chief renewed calls to speed up the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate “the increasing magnitude of climate-related disasters and related losses.” She argued that breaking away from fossil fuels and accelerating the transition to renewable energy is a crucial piece of the puzzle.
At the same time, she pointed to the typical increase of gas prices during “a period of cold weather.” Ylä-Mononen called for for “flexibilities” when it comes to energy storage, “so that we would have a bit of more buffer for the citizens when the hard times come.”
In a report published in July, the EEA warned that the EU “remains vulnerable to external fossil fuel supply shocks, as gas prices still drive EU wholesale electricity prices.” The report said gas price fluctuations in early 2026 cost the EU 13 billion Euro by mid-April while consumers saved 29 billion Euro thanks to renewable energy, making it “the system’s most effective shock absorber.”
Ylä-Mononen said that “many aspects and solutions are needed indeed to protect also the most vulnerable households.” She cited innovative solutions such as using electric vehicles’ batteries to power homes “as a specific reserve then to feed back in electricity when the prices are high.”
The EEA chief pointed out that ramping up local renewable energy sources was particularly difficult for cities. “Cities in particular have a challenge because their whole energy and also the mobility infrastructure is based very much still on the fossil economy.”
Cities had “limited possibilities to have individual windmills,” she said. However, she added, solar panels are “a feasible option, especially if the city or the national authorities are supporting that type of investment.”
The European Environment Agency (EEA) is the EU agency that provides independent environmental data, assessments and analysis to support policymaking in Europe.
Heat, drought and water scarcity could fundamentally change agriculture in parts of Europe, with some crops no longer viable in the driest areas of the Mediterranean, European Environment Agency (EEA) Executive Director Leena Ylä-Mononen said.
“Some crops will not grow anymore, especially in the most arid Mediterranean, southern European area,” Ylä-Mononen said in an interview with correspondents of the European Newsroom (enr) published Tuesday. More intensive irrigation would not necessarily provide a solution because of water possible water scarcity. Some land currently used for farming might therefore no longer be suitable for agriculture in some regions in Europe, she said.
This summer gave the “clearest possible illustration” of what Europe is facing, she told the enr. “Severe droughts have disrupted agriculture, our transport, and even energy infrastructure. And we have seen intense heatwaves across many parts of Europe that have had huge impacts on the infrastructure, health and well-being of people.” Harvests were coming in late and smaller, “so we may have even food security issues this winter,” Ylä-Mononen warned.
The effects are spreading beyond Europe’s traditional dry zones, according to Ylä-Mononen. She pointed to drought in Ukraine and Hungary, as well as unusually dry conditions in the United Kingdom and her home country, Finland. Although northern Europe could become suitable for some additional crops, it was unlikely to compensate for recurring losses caused by drought, floods and extreme weather elsewhere, she added.
Ylä-Mononen urged European politicians to look beyond the next election and plan for the climate risks already foreseeable over the next decade. “This kind of short-termism is not going to help us,” she said, arguing that infrastructure and agricultural investment decisions needed to take account of ten-, 20- and 50-year time horizons.
The warning comes as the EU’s Joint Research Centre reports drought conditions across half of the EU and the United Kingdom, with low river flows and deteriorating conditions for some crops in several parts of Europe.
In an assessment released in March – ahead of this year’s summer heatwaves – the EEA said “at present, drought (54%), heavy rain (21%), frost (16%), and hail (9%) together account for 80% of agricultural losses in the EU.”
Ylä-Mononen said Europe could no longer treat climate adaptation as an optional policy to be addressed when budgets allow. Heat and drought are already affecting agriculture, water resources, transport and energy systems, and some damage could have been avoided through earlier investment, she said.
The EEA chief stressed that adaptation must complement, not replace, mitigation: Europe needs both to reduce emissions and to prepare for climate impacts that will continue even under ambitious emissions cuts. But the costs of both action and inaction are rising.
Estimates of adaptation costs in the sectors transport, energy and agriculture cited by the EEA range from 53 billion Euro to 137 billion Euro per year until 2050, depending on the scenario of temperature rise above pre-industrial levels.
The European Environment Agency (EEA) is the EU agency that provides independent environmental data, assessments and analysis to support policymaking in Europe.
MEPs return to business from their summer vacation to a packed programme this week. An assortment of committee meetings awaits the deputies when they get back to their offices in Brussels. First up will be the issue of the devastating wildfires this summer and EU preparedness to handle such evens. Today (1 September), MEPs from the Climate, Environment and Food Safety Committee will quiz Equality, Preparedness and Crisis ManagementCommissioner Hadja Lahbib on the EU’s response to the summer wildfires across the continent, and discuss lessons learnt. Mental health at work is another issue that will confront MEPs during the coming week.
In a vote on Wednesday (2 September), the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs is set to demand the Commission propose legislation to protect the mental and physical health of workers. The aim is also to prevent, eliminate or reduce work-related psychosocial risks and ensure safe and dignified working conditions. Childhood cancer is another item on the agenda. Together with a 10-year-old survivor and sectoral experts, on Wednesday MEPs in the Public Health Committee will discuss aspects of paediatric cancer. This includes innovation, public investment, and policy recommendations.
Parliament’s President Roberta Metsola will open the debate. Greenland, which has come under the spotlight during President Trump’s 2nd term, is also up for debate. The Development and Foreign Affairs committees will host Greenland’s minister for foreign affairs, business and minerals, Múte Bourup Egede, on Wednesday. The meeting takes place in the context of ongoing discussions on updating the rules governing the EU’s relationship with Greenland, and other overseas countries and territories (OCTs), and future financial support for Greenland under the EU’s next long-term budget. Another issue in Brussels will be that of Afghanistan/refugees and asylum seekers.
On Thursday (3 September), MEPs in the Subcommittee on Human Rights will discuss the return of refugees and asylum seekers from the EU to Afghanistan following Commission meetings with Taliban-appointed representatives and in the light of the human rights situation in the country. Ireland has taken over the rotating presidency and Irish presidency priorities also come under the spotlight next week. Ireland’s ministers will continue to present their priorities in meetings with the relevant parliamentary committees. Ireland holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU until the end of 2026. On Tuesday morning,meanwhile, Roberta Metsola will host an informal breakfast with the permanent representatives of the governments of the member states to the EU.
VISBY, SVERIGE 20260625 Socialdemokraternas partiledare Magdalena Andersson (S) håller sitt tal under Almedalsveckan. Foto: Henrik Montgomery / TT / Kod 10060 | picture alliance / TT NYHETSBYRÅN | Henrik Montgomery/TT
The Gripen fighter jet came in low over the medieval rooftops of Visby, stood on its tail and climbed vertically out of sight. Hundreds of hands went up holding phones. Every late June, all Swedish party leaders gather for Almedalen Week in this town on Gotland, the Baltic Sea’s most strategic island. This year, the military display drew the only unanimous reaction of the week.
Sweden holds a general election on September 13th, but defence has barely featured in the campaign. All parties take the Russia threat seriously, and all want to face it as one. The election is being fought instead over welfare, migration, crime, climate and the economy—and on many of those, the government parties are losing.
Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right Moderates have held the prime minister’s office for four years, after an agreement in 2022 secured them the support of the far-right Sweden Democrats in exchange for a hard line on migration and crime. The so-called Tidö agreement—named after the castle where it was negotiated—broke a taboo: for the first time the Sweden Democrats had formal influence over a government, though it stopped short of joining the cabinet. Now the four parties supporting Kristersson’s government are trailing the opposition in the polls. The Liberal Party, currently in government, has suffered the most from the cooperation with the Sweden Democrats and is now polling below the 4% threshold to get into parliament.
Many analysts therefore expect Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democratic Party to return as prime minister. Her party governed Sweden for most of the 20th century and again between 2014 and 2022, when the country abandoned centuries of military non-alignment to join NATO. What would an Andersson government mean for Sweden’s foreign policy and its role in the EU? Based on several conversations with key people in the opposition parties, in Almedalen and elsewhere: not a dramatic change. But look closer and the differences start to show.
The maths
The political course will partly depend on the majority Andersson can assemble. A deal with the formerly communist Left Party, which is still formally committed to leaving NATO, would create a different government from one built with the market-liberal Centre Party and perhaps the Christian Democrats—and getting all them into the same majority would require political magic. The Green Party is likely to be part of the coalition either way, although senior figures say the case for being in government is still hotly debated internally.
The most likely outcome is that Andersson will lead a red-green coalition, assembled over months of difficult negotiations. The Greens and the Left would push for a less restrictive migration policy than the Social Democrats are ready to accept, having themselves tightened asylum rules when they were in power. For its part, the Centre Party would press for deregulation and other market liberal reforms Swedish business wants—against the trade unions as well as the Greens and the Left.
If Andersson struggles to hold a red-green government together, a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the Moderates also cannot be ruled out. But that would require a serious external crisis and a significant change within the Moderates.
Names circulating for foreign ministers or “sherpa” for the prime minister are Paula Carvalho, Morgan Johansson, Ylva Johansson, Ann Linde, Kerstin Lundgren, and Oscar Stenström. Peter Hultqvist is likely to return as defence minister.
What will not change
On many key issues, a government led by the Social Democrats would continue Sweden’s current course, regardless of coalition partners. Support for Ukraine is strong across the Riksdag. NATO membership will not be reopened: the security situation and strong public support for NATO membership discourage the Left Party from pushing its formal position, and the Social Democrats would refuse if it tried.
Sweden rejected the euro in a referendum in 2003 and will not revisit it in the coming four years unless there is a deep economic crisis, although the Centre Party may extract a report on the topic. The country’s dependence on exports keeps every party in favour of open trade. Sweden will also remain one of the EU’s most frugal members in negotiations of the next Multiannual Financial Framework.
‘Magda will be Magda’
Elsewhere, the change will be real. A centre-left government will focus more on relations with the global south and gradually increase aid spending. The Social Democrats have a long tradition of cooperating with countries such as South Africa and Brazil and have deepened those ties while in opposition. If Lula da Silva is re-elected, Andersson will be well-placed to strengthen EU-Brazil engagement. The Social Democrats also want closer relations with African states and OECD countries such as Canada, where Andersson has built a strong rapport with Mark Carney.
This agenda includes climate politics—all red-green parties want greater ambition at home and in Europe. For the Social Democrats, green industrial policy is the way to keep workers on side in the green transition, a view shared by trade unions and many industrial leaders. The Green Party might get the development and environment portfolios back, but they would have to fight with the Centre Party for climate and energy.
Middle East policy would also shift. In 2014, a Social Democratic-led government recognised Palestine, the first EU member state in Western Europe to do so, to loud criticism by the centre-right. An Andersson-led government is more likely to criticise Israel’s actions while also condemning terrorism. The complication is Ebba Busch: her Christian Democrats are strongly pro-Israel, and if they join the coalition, Middle East policy will become more complicated.
Andersson would champion a strong UN and revive the “feminist foreign policy” of Margot Wallström and Ann Linde. But in an EU dominated by the European People’s Party, she would find few allies for traditional social democratic causes. The Nordic and Baltic countries are her natural bloc. Beyond them, only a re-elected Pedro Sánchez in Spain—a big if—would give the Party of European Socialists a large member state. However, leading Social Democrats are keen to avoid comparisons with Sánchez or Denmark’s Mette Fredriksen. “Magda will be Magda”, says one. On other topics, such as support to Ukraine, Sweden will continue to be part of coalitions of the willing.
A rapid increase of defence spending would continue with either Kristersson or Andersson as prime minister, with the Social Democrats also advocating additional resources for civil defence.
The consensus on security policy runs deep. In the all-party Defence Commission’s report this summer, the Social Democrats fully agreed with the government’s assessment of the security situation. A rapid increase in defence spending would continue with either Kristersson or Andersson as prime minister, with the Social Democrats also advocating additional resources for civil defence.
However, a centre-left coalition could face internal conflicts over the envisaged rotating presence of French nuclear-capable aircraft in Sweden or cooperation with Turkey on intelligence and anti-terrorism, both of which the Left Party would resist. Rather than fight it, the coalition might just pay them off. “Magda will buy them out,” says a prominent Social Democrat, comparing to how Fredriksen made a deal with the left-ish Enhedslisten in Denmark, giving them social reforms in exchange for staying out of her cabinet.
And while the Social Democrats accept the role of nuclear weapons in NATO strategy, they press harder than the Moderates on global non-proliferation.
Biting their tongue on Trump
Although senior Social Democrats are highly critical of US president Donald Trump in private, and Andersson expressed solidarity with Denmark when he threatened Greenland, the party will not pick a public fight. It agreed with the conclusions of the Defence Commission, such as the importance of the American security partnership, and even in background talks Social Democrats decline to discuss alternatives to NATO command structures for large military operations. “We presume that SACEUR is responsible”, says one senior figure, referring to NATO’s commander in Europe, who has always been an American. Sweden’s reliance on American aircraft, interceptors and satellites in the sensitive Baltic Sea area leaves Andersson far less room than Sánchez has in Madrid.
If Kristersson survives
None of this is settled. ECFR’s New Politics research shows how volatile European electorates have become, and a late swing could leave Kristersson in office—this time with Sweden Democrats in ministerial posts, as the Moderates have promised.
That would hand the far-right party real power this time. Given its size, it will likely take influential portfolios, such as representing Sweden in EU negotiations on migration policy and home affairs, and perhaps finance and competitiveness too, like the Finns Party in Finland.
Even more importantly, the Sweden Democrats would fully participate in foreign and security policy decisions. In Sweden, ministers make government decisions collectively and are briefed on sensitive intelligence matters at cabinet meetings. While the party has been vocal in criticising Vladimir Putin since its links to Moscow were exposed, the opposition still sees them as a security risk.
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A new government will bring more of a tilt than a dramatic change in Sweden’s foreign and European policy. This will be important in the decisive year of 2029, when a new president of the European Commission will be chosen—and in a political landscape that might include far-right leadership in France, Italy and Poland. The Gripen will keep flying over Visby whoever wins in September. What changes is Sweden’s place in an EPP-dominated Europe.
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