Os conflitos no Oriente Médio são parte central da campanha eleitoral em Israel para o Parlamento, conhecido como Knesset. A votação acontecerá no dia 27 de outubro e definirá o futuro do primeiro-ministro Benjamin Netanyahu.

Tanto o governo quanto a oposição tentam ter controle das narrativas sobre os conflitos. De um lado, o governo de Netanyahu afirma que as ações eram necessárias e garantiram a segurança de Israel; do outro, a oposição critica e diz que os objetivos não foram concluídos e causaram danos ao país.

Uma das guerras que ainda não chegou ao fim é a batalha no Líbano, contra o Hezbollah. Além dos ataques aéreos, que deixaram milhares de mortos, Israel avançou pelo território libanês e capturou uma área que avançava cerca de 10 km pelo país vizinho.

Um cessar-fogo mediado pelos Estados Unidos fez com que a fase mais intensa desse conflito ficasse para trás. Ainda assim, não houve um acordo para o fim definitivo das hostilidades.

Israel quer o desarmamento completo do Hezbollah, enquanto o grupo libanês se nega a baixar as armas e exige que as forças israelenses deixem o Líbano completamente.

Desta maneira, a comunidade internacional acompanha de perto as eleições israelenses para avaliar o futuro das negociações.

A eleição em Israel pode afetar as negociações no Líbano?

Samuel Feldberg, doutor em Ciências Políticas pela USP e pesquisador da Universidade de Tel Aviv, avalia que não haverá grandes mudanças na política externa israelense após a votação, mesmo se a oposição a Benjamin Netanyahu vencer.

O especialista explica que os candidatos de maior relevância são ligados aos militares e têm experiência na área de segurança, como, por exemplo, Gadi Eisenkot. Ele foi ex-chefe do Estado-Maior das Forças Armadas de Israel e é o principal cotado para assumir o cargo de primeiro-ministro, caso vença Netanyahu.

Outros postulantes também ocuparam cargos importantes, como Avigdor Lieberman, ex-ministro da Defesa.

“As negociações com o governo do Líbano provavelmente vão continuar, mesmo se houver uma alternância de governo. E as demandas em relação à pressão sobre o Hezbollah com certeza vão continuar, mesmo que o governo não seja esse de Netanyahu”, pontua Feldberg.

Karina Calandrin, professora de Relações Internacionais do Ibmec-SP, concorda que ainda haverá pressão da sociedade israelense para que o grupo libanês se desarme e não represente mais uma ameaça para o país.

“A eleição pode mudar os instrumentos e o grau de disposição para negociar, mas provavelmente não eliminará o consenso israelense de que o Hezbollah não pode reconstruir no sul do Líbano a capacidade militar que possuía antes dessas guerras”, analisa.

Uma pesquisa de junho da Universidade Hebraica de Jerusalém, em colaboração com o Instituto Agam, revelou que apenas 12,2% dos entrevistados acreditavam que Israel alcançou a maioria dos objetivos abrangidos pela ideia de “vitória total”, que incluía, segundo a pesquisa, eliminar a ameaça do Hezbollah no Líbano, entre outros pontos.

Outros 61,3% disseram que Israel não alcançou esses objetivos “de forma alguma”, enquanto 26,5% avaliaram que Israel alcançou “alguns” de seus objetivos.

João Miragaya, assessor do Instituto Brasil-Israel e mestre em História pela Universidade de Tel Aviv, diz que é possível que um novo governo israelense tente chegar a um acordo com o governo libanês para o desarmamento do Hezbollah, que poderia terminar em um acordo de paz.

De toda forma, o especialista destaca que o processo seria complicado, ponderando que o “Hezbollah faria de tudo para atrapalhar” as negociações.

 

Entenda o que é o Hezbollah e como surgiu o grupo libanês

 

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It warned of possible military advances toward Nabatieh and the Litani River.

On Tuesday, Israel warned that it could maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely and conditioned any withdrawal on the complete disarmament of the Shiite movement Hezbollah, amid stalled negotiations between the two sides.

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Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli occupatory forces will not abandon the areas currently under their control. He also warned of possible military advances toward Nabatieh and the Litani River if further attacks occur.

Katz asserted that Israel is applying the so-called “Gaza model” in southern Lebanon. According to his statements, dozens of villages have been destroyed in the occupied area during military operations.

According to United Nations estimates, some 330,000 people remain displaced by the conflict, in addition to another 200,000 who have fled areas occupied by Israeli forces.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported at least 4,389 deaths and 12,424 injuries since the escalation of hostilities began in early March. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement reached in June with U.S. mediation.

🔴This is life under Israeli occupation and a typical night in south Lebanon.

Machine gun combing and illumination flares in Zouwtar Al Sharqia. pic.twitter.com/l3BqUx42se

— courtneybonneauimages (@cbonneauimages) October 18, 2026

Aoun also maintained that the Israeli military presence prevents the full deployment of the Lebanese army along the border, one of the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

Given the lack of progress in implementing the agreement, a Lebanese military delegation will participate in talks in the United States to achieve a cessation of Israeli operations and establish a withdrawal timetable.

The military delegations from Lebanon and Israel will resume direct negotiations at the headquarters of the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), after three months of stalled dialogue.

The process was suspended in August by the Lebanese government, which protested the continued Israeli military actions despite the ceasefire. Six months after the start of the talks, none of the core commitments have been fully implemented.

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teleSUR: JP

Source: teleSUR

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The Resistance Movement Hezbollah unveiled a housing assistance program on Tuesday to help Lebanese families left homeless or with severely damaged residences by Israeli military strikes, offering subsidies of up to $14,000 for those in Beirut and its southern suburbs.

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The Lebanese resistance movement formally presented the project under the name “Promise and Commitment,” known in Arabic as Wa’ad wa Iltizam.

Officials described it as comprehensive, direct and urgent aid for households whose homes were destroyed or badly damaged during the Israeli aggression.

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The program sets a ceiling of $14,000 for affected families in Beirut and its southern suburb of Dahiye. Of that sum, $8,000 will go toward replacing furniture and household goods, while $6,000 will cover rental costs. In the rest of Lebanon’s affected regions, the maximum assistance reaches $12,000, with rent capped at $4,000.

The payments will be made in four installments over one year, starting with an initial payment of $3,500 for the capital and its suburbs and $3,000 for the rest of the country.

The program covers owners of homes destroyed either fully or partially, as well as displaced people from border zones and areas that remain inaccessible.

The head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, Sheikh Ali Daamoush, announced the resistance’s new “Promise and Commitment” housing assistance program for forcibly displaced families whose homes were damaged by Israeli aggression across Lebanon.

￭ Eligible residential units in… pic.twitter.com/GV2hoCzp0V

— VPol (@VocalPolitics1) October 13, 2026

Damage by the Numbers

A joint report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Lebanese National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS-L), published in June, assessed the damage from Israeli attacks up to that date. It found that 11,095 buildings were completely destroyed, affecting 17,891 housing units.

Another 2,242 buildings suffered partial damage, affecting 5,219 units, and 9,311 buildings sustained minor damage, affecting 18,282 units. Damage was estimated at $1.38 billion.

Lebanese authorities have also reported the return of 400,000 displaced people to the south of the country following the Israeli aggression. That return adds urgency to the housing effort, as many families come back to neighborhoods where their homes no longer stand.

The aid program is structured around that reality. By splitting payments across a full year, the initiative aims to cover both immediate needs and the longer process of rebuilding lives and households.

For the poorest households, the initial installments provide a bridge while more durable reconstruction gets underway. The program’s architects say the subsidies address both the loss of possessions and the cost of temporary shelter.

The presentation of the housing project carries political weight beyond its material value. Hezbollah has positioned reconstruction as central to its post-war standing, presenting the rebuilding effort as a form of resilience against what it describes as foreign aggression.

كشف حزب الله عن تفاصيل برنامج الإيواء الجديد، محدّدًا التعويضات بين 12 و14 ألف دولار للوحدة السكنية، بحسب المنطقة، مع دفعة أولى تتراوح بين 3000 و3500 دولار

فكيف ستُصرف المبالغ المتبقية، وما شروط الاستفادة من البرنامج؟

Hezbollah has revealed the details of its new housing… pic.twitter.com/JSH9RQQNEq

— Beirut Politics (@beirut_politics) October 13, 2026

Text reads: “Hezbollah has revealed the details of its new housing assistance program, setting compensation at between $12,000 and $14,000 per residential unit, depending on the area, with an initial payment ranging from $3,000 to $3,500.”

Presenting the initiative, Hezbollah Executive Council head Sheikh Ali Damoush said its implementation would show the victory of reconstruction over destruction and of resistance over what he called foreign barbarity. Damoush sharply criticized the Lebanese government, affirming that authorities have not presented any effective plan to help the hundreds of thousands of displaced people and have not taken responsibility for assessing damage and rebuilding.

The program’s rollout now begins with registration and verification of affected families, followed by the first disbursements.

Last week it was reported that Iran had provided Hezbollah with some $200 million to help provide for those Lebanese civilians who lost homes so far during the Israeli invasion. Today, Hezbollah began to provide details about how the program would work. The plan is to provide $14,000 to families that lost homes in Beirut […]

With Hezbollah squarely in the political opposition, Lebanese officials have been hoping for awhile that the ongoing Israeli invasion would further alienate Hezbollah from the public, as an active combatant force and, at least by Israel’s framing, the reason for the conflict. That’s been a polarizing issue, however, and Hezbollah is likely to score a […]